Thunderstorms Thread

Hal1

Snowbie wrote:

I have started this thread for future storms and to declutter the forum of independent Thunderstorm events and to post to one thread only.
It be interesting to look back at this thread at the end of the summer and to recap any interesting developments that has hopefully happened within the summer months by posting,displaying graphs,sferics,even photos of cloud formations etc etc.

So here is to many thunderstorm events to come
Risk of TS for wensday 16th and friday 18th issued by met.ie and esfe.

Damomanye

I see there is a big line of showers with lightning running throught them heading towards the South East and according to tv reports it could make it's way accross to the west of Ireland.

Anyone else watching this

Snowbie

Band of heavy showers currently over Devon and Cornwall and South Wales is curently pushing in an Nw and then westerly direction might pose a Threat to the SE later on.Might be thundery.
Cape and LI looks interesting for Friday Evening.Possible storms breaking out almost anywhere.One to Watch.

DapperGent

Just making a new thunderstorms sticky for ease of reading. The last one has become enourmous.

darkman2

I think thunder and lightning is likely in the South and East later. Cool winds traversing the relatively warm Irish sea as a sharp centre of low pressure approaches from the south lead to a generous CAPE value this evening and tonight on the Irish sea. A largely convective driven scenario after dark looks likely with good instability:)

Hal1

It looks like the midlands in the uk are getting a battering at the moment, and it all seems to be heading in a WNW direction which is good news if you like a good storm.

Good job removing those old posts Dapper.

From the uk met office :eek:

Snowbie

Snowbie wrote:

Band of heavy showers currently over Devon and Cornwall and South Wales is curently pushing in an Nw and then westerly direction might pose a Threat to the SE later on.Might be thundery.
Cape and LI looks interesting for Friday Evening.Possible storms breaking out almost anywhere.One to Watch.

Very cloudy and breezy here now,the milky sunshine is gone and its getting darker.

Those heavy showers are imminent here by the looks of the radar.
There doesnt appear to be any thunder in them though yet.

darkman2

Wetterzentrale is picking up loads of strikes but mostly in the midlands in the UK. Nothing over Wales atm even though the radar is showing very heavy rain.

Snowbie

Just to let you know that my detector is turned off atm as i am back in work. i was picking up strikes through the midlands in uk and seemed to be intensyfiing assccoiated with the occluded front moving NNW.Should hit the SE in a few hours.Wheather the Irish sea will influence it in becoming thundery,we`ll wait and see.Turning darker to the south now.

Snowbie

darkman2 wrote:

I think thunder and lightning is likely in the South and East later. Cool winds traversing the relatively warm Irish sea as a sharp centre of low pressure approaches from the south lead to a generous CAPE value this evening and tonight on the Irish sea. A largely convective driven scenario after dark looks likely with good instability:)

The Cape was okish this morning but the update has had an rapid increas right through to Saturday morning.
The rain is fragmenting to the south in celtic sea and is unchanged moving off the Welsh coast into Irish sea with a TS in Cardigan bay.

Snowbie

Snowbie wrote:

The Cape was okish this morning but the update has had an rapid increas right through to Saturday morning.
The rain is fragmenting to the south in celtic sea and is unchanged moving off the Welsh coast into Irish sea with a TS in Cardigan bay.

Yeah I see that.
The edge of the main band might drift into wexford Wicklow and Dublin by the looks of things,its currently about 20 miles East of here with a few feeder showers ahead of it.
Outside I can see the wall of thicker cloud with embedded cb's visible covering the entire eastern skyline.
Still dry here but not for long I would say.

Snowbie

Earthman wrote:

Yeah I see that.
The edge of the main band might drift into wexford Wicklow and Dublin by the looks of things,its currently about 20 miles East of here with a few feeder showers ahead of it.
Outside I can see the wall of thicker cloud with embedded cb's visible covering the entire eastern skyline.
Still dry here but not for long I would say.

Ok looks promising if you see CBs,so there is instability over the sea.
Might be a lively evening as they move onshore.Your the eyes EM.You be hit first.

Snowbie

I dunno bout this.Irish sea looks like its not generating any sign of convection on the front.
Maybe home grown storms ahead of this inland.
Anyway looks like a wet evening in store for the Eastern seaboard.

heavy rain just started here

Snowbie

Earthman wrote:

heavy rain just started here

Sun splitting the trees here atm.Wind has died down too.

Away from the pc for a few hrs now and I'm turning everything off as theres been some cracking thunderstorms over in wales and well,the system they appeared on is heading towards the East coast.I wont be around to switch off if something comes.
Thats not to say there'll be thunder but there might well be.

The wind is all over the place here but mainly North east gusting to about 20mph at ground level which is going to blow it in here I think.

snowbie,have you your lightning detector on at the moment?

This is often wrong but...
http://www.isleofwightweather.com/lightning.html

There seems to be activity in the south Irish/celtic sea alright :eek:

Snowbie

Earthman wrote:

Away from the pc for a few hrs now and I'm turning everything off as theres been some cracking thunderstorms over in wales and well,the system they appeared on is heading towards the East coast.I wont be around to switch off if something comes.
Thats not to say there'll be thunder but there might well be.

The wind is all over the place here but mainly North east gusting to about 20mph at ground level which is going to blow it in here I think.

Ok HB.
Be home in 15mins to put on detector.
Anglesey got a hammering.

darkman2

Snowbie wrote:

I dunno bout this.Irish sea looks like its not generating any sign of convection on the front.
Maybe home grown storms ahead of this inland.
Anyway looks like a wet evening in store for the Eastern seaboard.

Its certainly an active front but id tend to agree. Although I still think parts of the East will see a flash or two overnight. Its one of those situations where cell can appear and disappear quite rapidly. Hopefull.:)

darkman2

darkman2 wrote:

Its certainly an active front but id tend to agree. Although I still think parts of the East will see a flash or two overnight. Its one of those situations where cell can appear and disappear quite rapidly. Hopefull.:)

I'd agree with that assessment.
Looks like the bulk of this will head to the north of mothman and into Dublin where,I'd be surprised if the north walean thunder had gone,there should be some left.

Snowbie

darkman2 wrote:

Its certainly an active front but id tend to agree. Although I still think parts of the East will see a flash or two overnight. Its one of those situations where cell can appear and disappear quite rapidly. Hopefull.:)

Exactly DM,those embedded TS alright.Im not discounting that we will see a strike or two.
I can see sky closing in from the east quickly now.

Snowbie

Earthman wrote:

snowbie,have you your lightning detector on at the moment?

This is often wrong but...
http://www.isleofwightweather.com/lightning.html

There seems to be activity in the south Irish/celtic sea alright :eek:

That detector is not configured properly IMO.If you see the strikes approaching WExford on the 300km range ring,follow it direct opposite from his centre point over N France.This is reflection from his antannae due to mountainous areas putting the strikes close to wexford and over Ireland.It be accurate around his neck of the woods but over 200km he will have this trouble espeicially in Irelands Direction.

oh I know its rubbish ,it does seem capable of some detection in the celtic sea though and thats what I was looking at.
I'd have taken that as being somewhere in the area but not exactly or even near exactly.

Snowbie

True,not saying he has total trouble with it,its the Welsh Mountains given him the bother and he is situated on close to IOW hills too which aint good for the Antanae to accurately read signatures.Direct line of sight it be good but not through a hill/mtn.

http://www.metoffice.com/satpics/latest_uk_vis.html

Thats an hour ago

You can see the ridges of whiter cloud in the curve bending southwestwards out of wales and stretching east over manchester.

In my opinion, they will survive intactish but its anyones guess where they will hit land again.

The north easterly should put them anywhere over Dublin Wicklow(north of here) or louth.

BUT their general upper flow direction is north westward which could pump them into East Ulster and down into Louth.

The heavy rain I reported earlier lasted all of 5 minutes.

Currently dark and hazy

The wind is just wierd, it goes calm and then it gusts out of nowhere always noth east.

darkman2

According to the UK met radar some quite intense echoes now in the Irish sea. Intensified slightly in last half an hour. Met.ie is not showing it as intense.

Snowbie

I cant see anything but rain being produced over the sea from that front.Its when it comes ashore it can be beefed up a bit with moderate convection over the land.Havin said that there are TS breaking out over south Wales moving Northwards meaning the air is turbulent in the wake of the front.Can get interesting later on.

Supercell

Taf does show the potential nicely :-

EIDW 171600Z 180024 04005KT 5000 -RA SCT007 BKN010 TEMPO 0003 3000 RA SCT003 BKN005 PROB30 TEMPO 2303 3000 +SHRA TSRA BKN003 BKN018CB TEMPO 0307 1500 BR SCT001 BKN002 BECMG 0709 9999 SCT015 SCT020 TEMPO 1021 -SHRA SCT010 SCT018CB BECMG 1518 34008KT=

Smallish chance of some fireworks later, worth keeping an eye on.

darkman2

darkman2 wrote:

According to the UK met radar some quite intense echoes now in the Irish sea. Intensified slightly in last half an hour. Met.ie is not showing it as intense.

Slightly delayed but I'm switching off everything now as I'll be working outside for a few hours.

That intense red on the UK radar was only a tiny red dot when the thunderstorms were over north wales and it is now less than 30 miles off the East coast and is a huge red blob as red blobs go.

It's an area that could affect wicklow to Dublin with the same intensity at the same time which would be pretty unusual.

Snowbie

Bit of luck red blob turns into a white blob with waterspouts and lightning:D

Snowbie

Snowbie wrote:

Bit of luck red blob turns into a white blob with waterspouts and lightning:D

It's showing a red spot on the met.ie radar now :eek:

Probably heading for you snowbie... hard to say where the best of this will make land fall but its going to be Dublin for sure and areas north of Wicklow head and south of Carlingford.

Likelyhood of associated bangs are high I'd say