Discussion on Winter LRFs (9/10/2006)

Snowbie

Also to note now DM that the El-Nino is forecast to weaken as we approach mid to late winter.
This would mean an end to dominating early Winter zonal and a reintensification of the Greenland high(s).

Its from the North we shall have our dominating cold snaps(or prolonged cold spell depending on the El-Nino weakening)but as for "the beast from the east" (siberian high or scandi high) will be imho non existant if the El Nino doesnt weaken also resulting in a GH being a short lived cold snaps scenarios.

There is still ifs and buts atm,though a cooling trend for the first week of Nov ensues our very mild month of October.

darkman2

The updated UKMO winter forecast will be out shortly. My thoughts would be mild at first, colder later but we will see:)

darkman2

As expected:

Update to Met Office winter 2006/7 forecast


1 November 2006

An assessment of new data at the Met Office has shown that this coming winter is most likely to be average or warmer-than-average across the UK, with rainfall levels also at average or above-average levels through the months of December through to February.

This is a move in the forecast, as previous predictions had indicated a finely balanced situation for temperature and precipitation. Later in the season, there remains a signal for lower temperatures (relative to average) and an increase in the frequency of cold snaps.

A number of large scale influences on the winter season are still emerging and causing additional uncertainty. These include the continuing evolution of North Atlantic Ocean temperatures and the weak El Niño, both of which could yet develop to favour a colder/drier outlook for northern Europe. These effects will be monitored and assessed in the December update.

The Met Office updates its seasonal forecasts each month as more data becomes available. The UK's national weather service has used a range of information, including expert judgement and computer simulations, to try to capture the detail for the coming winter.

Despite massive improvements in forecasting the weather in the short-term, the techniques used in forecasting for the months ahead are still being developed and refined. The Met Office leads the field in producing and communicating these types of forecasts, which are often of considerable value to long-term planners.

Strasser

Are the current near record cold temperatures in Greenland relevant for our winter prospects?

Snowbie

Yep.All we need is a sustained strong Nwly to give us a right cold spell to feel the affects now but it is significant for later on in the winter.

fatherdougalmag

-14c for the UK on the way

Trogdor

You just have to believe:):)http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/forums/thread/115664.aspx

SpitfireIV

trogdor wrote:

You just have to believe:):)http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/forums/thread/115664.aspx

Wow....thats pretty ehhh..........wow! Is that guy for real?? :eek:

RuggieBear

trogdor wrote:

You just have to believe:):)http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/forums/thread/115664.aspx

/me heads down to bookies and puts all my money on a white xmas:D

lol

It's a nice theory.
I wouldnt altogether dismiss it as a possibility-after all 1963 and 1947 did happen.
It's a stab in the dark though-a lucky one if it comes off.
No LRF is that accurate.

Trogdor

RuggieBear wrote:

/me heads down to bookies and puts all my money on a white xmas:D

lol

I wouldn't do that just yet:p .It's very hard to know wether he's for real or not. [runs out the door to get to the bookies first:D ]

Snowbie

Wind up:rolleyes:

Villain

Tbh:

Gonzo

seems very over the top tbh.. i'll see it when i believe it.

Trogdor

Gonzo wrote:

seems very over the top tbh.. i'll see it when i believe it.

If only:D , i think you mean you'll believe it when you see it. Or maybe not;)

Trogdor

Sorry if this is a wind up, but he has posted again, and to me that means he's alot more genuine than i thought, or course i'm still reserving judgement Here's what he posted:
A generally blocked picture from GFS this morning, although not the most reliable of models, I see its evolution as quite realistic. I will observe and study them in detail over the next couple of weeks although my predictions for winter will not change regardless of what they show from run to run.It was unfortunate to find that my thread was locked, but in case anyone was wondering whether my post yesterday evening was a prank, I intend to stick with my forecast and if it is wrong, I can guarantee a full explanation as to why. However, I feel the chances of it being wrong are very low. Believe me, for the sake of this country’s infrastructure I really wish we would have a mild and settled weather. I don’t even like cold weather!

http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/forums/12/114985/ShowThread.aspx

Snowbie

I personaly wouldnt trust a forecast beyond 4 or 5 days let alone up to 6 weeks away but thats just goin on experience.

He is doing no wrong by producing such a LRF,thats what this thread is all about.If genuine or not this would be interesting to say the least but imho it is very unprofessional to release such a statement if he is belonged to a met organisation even if its in the best interest of safety etc etc.

You cant go about and cause an apocylapse as people would could take this really seriously and be all sorts of implications and thats why met offices would not entertain such an LRF.So is that why he is posting it publicly,Unknown.

If it where a case where he is right,well then hats off to him and his word is gospel in theory for future references.I dont see the odds stack against him as it is 1 of 2 chances he can be right which could pave his way to his own speical website etc etc and he can earn lots of money from some folk paying and minting him(get my drift)
But we wait and see.If he is so forthright why not prove his theory up front?.
Its a make a break for him if genuine or not but still not convinced myself.

I

SpitfireIV

What do ye think of this Ricky1 guy now, he posted a very long and detailed post about how he came up with his prediction for this coming winter, he seems to be genuine anyway.........whether what he says will happen or not is another story

http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/forums/7/116268/ShowThread.aspx
(mid way down the page)

Trogdor

I think he is genuine, he believes his forecast, but whether it will turn out that way, only time will tell

Snowbie

Net weather have released an interesting Winter forecast.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=forecast;type=seasonal;sess=

caffrey

http://youtube.com/watch?v=VNaDZIrxh-0

Snowbie

caffrey wrote:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=VNaDZIrxh-0

Okay lets stay on topic now.:rolleyes:

darkman2

Bump!

Building pressure to the east soon will add a new dynamic to the discussion here over the next while. Will post my thoughts on this soon.:)

Snowbie

Snowbie wrote:

Net weather have released an interesting Winter forecast.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=forecast;type=seasonal;sess=

I'm a great believer in mother natures ability to go from one extreme to the other to even things out.
It's not a science but it nearly always happens in my view.
We're at an extreme now I think so hmmmm!

Not a bad shot at a forecast and as Darkman2 has alluded some things are or maybe are happening.
Takes a lot though for an East influence to affect us.
It has to be strong and go on for at 5 days to start getting suffeciently potent here if it has a cold enough source.
Thats not there right now but hey its still november!

Snowbie

An easterly at this time of year would not be as potent as an easterly in Febuary.As you said it would take a consistent easterly to cool things down sufficiently now as it aint that cold yet to our east or scandinavia,but can change dramatically in time.

We are under the influence of a powerful jet stream atm.This will have to move south for a high or block to build out west or east.No chance of this happening in the short term as yet.

Trogdor

The TWO and WW LRF's came out today, obviously they're not forecasts for Ireland but still
http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=7089
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/fordiscussion.aspx?type=FD90UK

Snowbie

The UKWW wont open for moi trogdor

Trogdor

I don't know whats wrong it opens fine for me. here's the link again ,
]www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=7089

Snowbie

So many conflicting forecasts out there atm.No body bloody knows whats goin to happen as far as im concerned.Above avg temps,below avg temps,higher rainfall, lower rainfall blah bla blah,thats a typical winter every year here.

Is the overall concensus be that this winter,my brainpower,your brainpower even computer brainpower cant predict after 5 days.;) I think so.So now lets predict a white christmas.Eh 50/50 isin it.Your either right or your wrong.

Where is that Rick lemon guy to cheer us back up with another LRF.:rolleyes:

sunset

Cheer up Snowbie. Perhaps this discussion could turn to forecasting the next forecast!! It has been an interesting discussion so far.