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50/50 chance of winning over €700 - Absolutely risk free!

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    #92
    okidoki987
    Registered Users Posts: 10,622 ✭✭✭✭okidoki987


    Current update
    -2.5 with Pinnacle and Eurobet.

    Mansion will update their price at 15.00 GMT (4 o'clock)


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    #93
    daveirl
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,483 ✭✭✭✭daveirl


    This post has been deleted.


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    #94
    jester77
    Registered Users Posts: 11,262 ✭✭✭✭jester77


    Can someone explain all this :confused:
    Unfortunatly my money only arrived on my Moneybookers a/c Friday morning, not in time to place the Mansion bet. I didn't place a bet on Miami either in case that Mansion pulled their offer.

    From reading the report it sounds like Pittsburg have a smaller chance of winning now due to missing their QB, so I guess that means you will get a better price from Mansion for them to win? It was 1.902 I think so I preume it might be over 2.0 when they put it up.

    Which in turn means the prices for Miami to win on the other sites will be rubbish? Do you think this bet is still worth hedging?


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    #95
    eirebhoy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,013 ✭✭✭✭eirebhoy


    jester77 wrote:
    From reading the report it sounds like Pittsburg have a smaller chance of winning now due to missing their QB, so I guess that means you will get a better price from Mansion for them to win? It was 1.902 I think so I preume it might be over 2.0 when they put it up.

    Which in turn means the prices for Miami to win on the other sites will be rubbish? Do you think this bet is still worth hedging?
    They won't change the price, just the handicap. As someone said above you may get 1.91 on a -2.5pt handicap. It won't affect anything if you're planning on making yourself a sure profit.

    Pittsburgh are actually 1.9 minus a 1.5pt handicap on Pinnacle atm.


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    #96
    jester77
    Registered Users Posts: 11,262 ✭✭✭✭jester77


    eirebhoy wrote:
    They won't change the price, just the handicap. As someone said above you may get 1.91 on a -2.5pt handicap. It won't affect anything if you're planning on making yourself a sure profit.

    Pittsburgh are actually 1.9 minus a 1.5pt handicap on Pinnacle atm.

    Ah, so that's how it works, thanks!
    So I'm better off waiting until Mansion put the offer back up! Can't place a bet here at work anyway, damn firewall, so have to wait till this evening!

    What would be the best way to approach this bet now, from the sounds of it Miami look good for the win. Just take what Mansion are offering and then place a straight win bet on Miami with Pinnacle or Betfair? Or am I looking at this wrong!


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    #97
    eirebhoy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,013 ✭✭✭✭eirebhoy


    jester77 wrote:
    Ah, so that's how it works, thanks!
    So I'm better off waiting until Mansion put the offer back up! Can't place a bet here at work anyway, damn firewall, so have to wait till this evening!

    What would be the best way to approach this bet now, from the sounds of it Miami look good for the win. Just take what Mansion are offering and then place a straight win bet on Miami with Pinnacle or Betfair? Or am I looking at this wrong!
    If you think Miami are going to win you can always put the €850 on Pittsburg and then stick €1,620 on Miami. If Miami win with the handicap advantage at odds of 1.91 you get €3,100 back which is a profit of €1,480. If they lose you get your €1,620 back through the mansion bet.

    Judging by what people are saying that's probably the best option as Miami seem likely to win, especially with a handicap. If I've calculated that wrong then let me know. :)


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    #98
    okidoki987
    Registered Users Posts: 10,622 ✭✭✭✭okidoki987


    Just take what Mansion are offering and then place a straight win bet on Miami with Pinnacle or Betfair? Or am I looking at this wrong!

    If you talking about backing Miami to win the game without any points handicap, DON'T.
    You have to back Miami with the points because you could end up getting your money back from Mansion but losing your money with the Miami bet.
    i.e.
    You back Pittsburgh -4 (it will be lower this afternoon) at 9/10.
    You back Miami at 11/10 (no handicap).
    Pittsburgh win by 2.
    You lose Pittsburgh but get your money back.
    you lose Miami bet.
    Nett loss.

    Same bet but you back Miami +4 (or same handicap as Mansion) at 9/10.
    You win half (roughly) your potential profit by just doing Mansion offer.


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    #99
    MisterAnarchy
    Registered Users Posts: 14,711 ✭✭✭✭MisterAnarchy


    eirebhoy wrote:
    If you think Miami are going to win you can always put the €850 on Pittsburg and then stick €1,620 on Miami. If Miami win with the handicap advantage at odds of 1.91 you get €3,100 back which is a profit of €1,480. If they lose you get your €1,620 back through the mansion bet.

    Judging by what people are saying that's probably the best option as Miami seem likely to win, especially with a handicap. If I've calculated that wrong then let me know. :)

    Those figures are incorrect.
    If Pittsburg win you get 1,620 back ,a profit of 770.
    However you lose 1,620 on the Miami bet so thats a net loss of 850 euro.
    The handicaps are 0 now on Mansion.


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    #100
    [nicK]
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,639 ✭✭✭[nicK]


    wohoo, just completed the bet for $1100.. the new line is "pk" (0) which means if steelers win by 1pt or more i get a return of $2100..


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    #101
    jester77
    Registered Users Posts: 11,262 ✭✭✭✭jester77


    How does that work when the handicap is 0?

    If I place €850 on Pittsburg at 0 with Mansion and another amount at 0 on Miami with Pinnacle would my bet be hedged? Or would a draw be a problem?


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    #102
    [nicK]
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,639 ✭✭✭[nicK]


    yeah, that would cover you.. a draw returns your stake..


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    #103
    eirebhoy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,013 ✭✭✭✭eirebhoy


    MisterAnarchy wrote:
    Those figures are incorrect.
    If Pittsburg win you get 1,620 back ,a profit of 770.
    However you lose 1,620 on the Miami bet so thats a net loss of 850 euro.
    The handicaps are 0 now on Mansion.
    Yeah, I had a feeling I was wrong but numbers mess my head up. :)

    btw - Pittsburgh are now +1 on Mansion for the 1.91 odds. :eek:


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    #104
    jester77
    Registered Users Posts: 11,262 ✭✭✭✭jester77


    Well, just placed the bet, hope I didn't make a b*lls of it.
    Got Pittsburg at 1.91 +1 and got Miami at 1.847 +1

    So put 850 on Pitts and 420 on Miami. Got a 10% bonus for joining Pinnacle. If Pitts win I have 353 profit, if Miami win I have 433 profit... if I did my maths right...

    Pitts 850 @ 1.91 = 773.50 returns
    Miami 462(10% bonus) @ 1.847 = 433.31 returns

    Pitts win I have (850 + 773.50) - 1270 = 353.50
    Miami win I have 462 + 433.31 + 850 (pitt return) - 1270 = 433.33


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    #105
    eirebhoy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,013 ✭✭✭✭eirebhoy


    jester77 wrote:
    Well, just placed the bet, hope I didn't make a b*lls of it.
    Got Pittsburg at 1.91 +1 and got Miami at 1.847 +1

    So put 850 on Pitts and 420 on Miami. Got a 10% bonus for joining Pinnacle. If Pitts win I have 353 profit, if Miami win I have 433 profit... if I did my maths right...

    Pitts 850 @ 1.91 = 773.50 returns
    Miami 462(10% bonus) @ 1.847 = 433.31 returns

    Pitts win I have (850 + 773.50) - 1270 = 353.50
    Miami win I have 462 + 433.31 + 850 (pitt return) - 1270 = 433.33
    If it's a draw you win both bets!


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    #106
    jester77
    Registered Users Posts: 11,262 ✭✭✭✭jester77


    Yeah, could have gotten another €60 on the Miami win... but worth a shot at the draw ;)


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    #107
    okidoki987
    Registered Users Posts: 10,622 ✭✭✭✭okidoki987


    Anybody do Miami +4.5 and not do the Mansion bet yet?


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    #108
    karlh
    Registered Users Posts: 2,835 ✭✭✭karlh


    betfair's price on Miami +4.5 is crap now (1.34)

    anyone think you're better off doing a match bet for Miami at 1.92 and completing the hedge with a tie winning margin bet at 100?

    by my reckoning $520 on this hedge ($516 on win, $4 on tie) guarantees ~$480 profit win + lose and a bit less for the draw.

    i'm crap at this despite indirectly working for a bookies :)


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    #109
    okidoki987
    Registered Users Posts: 10,622 ✭✭✭✭okidoki987


    Ideally what you want is to back Miami as near to evens as you can get (think .95 is the best available) at zero as that's Mansion's bet now.
    I'd say Mansion are very happy having laid Pitts at -4.5/-5 and the
    line is now down to 0 :eek:
    So they should be quids in on those who put the bets on before the handicap changed. It looks like a lot have hedged with Pinnacle and thye must be sweating on Miami +4.5/5 now down to zero.
    If the draw is a runner (handicaps with even numbers) then you would get your money back from both bets.


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    #110
    MisterAnarchy
    Registered Users Posts: 14,711 ✭✭✭✭MisterAnarchy


    Right have set up all the necessary accounts.
    So I put €850 on Pittsburgh @1.91 -0 Handicap
    Then put €405 on Miami at 1.91 +1 Handicap at Pinnacle
    That gives me a net win of €368 irrespective of the result ,is that correct ?


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    #111
    valor
    Registered Users Posts: 3,296 ✭✭✭valor


    101
    01:30
    Miami Dolphins Pittsburgh Steelers
    Points
    Pk -110 Pk -110

    Total
    ov 34.5 -110 un 34.5 -110

    Which box am I supposed to pick ? Pk -110
    or un34.5 -110?

    I have no idea what im doing here ;)


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    #112
    eirebhoy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,013 ✭✭✭✭eirebhoy


    Change the odds to Decimal and you might understand it a bit better. :)


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    #113
    valor
    Registered Users Posts: 3,296 ✭✭✭valor


    i assume i click the box beside Steelers points?
    is that right?


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    #114
    MisterAnarchy
    Registered Users Posts: 14,711 ✭✭✭✭MisterAnarchy


    valor wrote:
    i assume i click the box beside Steelers points?
    is that right?
    Yes,that is correct.


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    #115
    valor
    Registered Users Posts: 3,296 ✭✭✭valor


    Just made the bet. trying to decide whether to hedge or not


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    #116
    valor
    Registered Users Posts: 3,296 ✭✭✭valor


    anywhere this can be watched? online or whatever


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    #117
    eirebhoy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,013 ✭✭✭✭eirebhoy


    MisterAnarchy wrote:
    Right have set up all the necessary accounts.
    So I put €850 on Pittsburgh @1.91 -0 Handicap
    Then put €405 on Miami at 1.91 +1 Handicap at Pinnacle
    That gives me a net win of €368 irrespective of the result ,is that correct ?
    Yep. Plus Pinnacle will give you €40 if it's your 1st bet with them (10% 1st bet bonus).
    valor wrote:
    anywhere this can be watched? online or whatever
    It's been shown on Sky Sports Extra.


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    #118
    eirebhoy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,013 ✭✭✭✭eirebhoy


    It appears 5,000 was the limit for this promotion and it has now finished...
    MANSION is proud to announce the success of our season-opening NFL Cash-Back promotion, which has given five thousand of our Members a unique opportunity to place bets on Pittsburgh Steelers of USD 1,100 to win USD 1,000 (or currency equivalent) in their season opener at home against an in form Miami Dolphins.

    Betting on the promotion has now ended after reaching full subscription with 5,000 MANSION Members having taken part, wagering USD 5.5 Million in the cash-back offer on the Superbowl Champions, Pittsburgh Steelers to defeat Miami Dolphins this Thursday September 7th.

    If the Steelers lose or fail to cover the point spread, MANSION will refund qualified Member individual bets of USD 1,100 (or currency equivalent) - presenting one of the most compelling season launching promotions by a betting company, with no strings attached and no rollover requirement. Naturally, should the reigning Super Bowl Champions beat Miami and cover the spread, MANSION will pay our Members over 5 Million in total winnings.

    On paper, everything is there for the Steelers to become the ninth repeat champion in league history (and third in team history), but speculation on their 2006 regular season debut has been heightened, having struggled through a troubling off-season.

    The Pittsburgh Steelers Promotion is further proof that MANSION is the home of choice and reward for our Members, and it "pays to belong” to take full advantage of the many best-in-value promotions and offers in sports wagering and first class member services.

    MANSION wishes the best of luck to our Members who are participating in this promotion.


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    #119
    okidoki987
    Registered Users Posts: 10,622 ✭✭✭✭okidoki987


    Wonder how many will continue to bet with Mansion after this game :rolleyes:


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    #120
    karlh
    Registered Users Posts: 2,835 ✭✭✭karlh


    i'll probably just fart away $1000 in their casino tbh.




    *joke* :)


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    #121
    eirebhoy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,013 ✭✭✭✭eirebhoy


    okidoki987 - Did you not do the bet in the end?


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