Interesting Stuff Thread

robindch

From last night's RTE news, Evelyn Cusack gives the lowdown on amateur long range weather forecasting:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvB-i3t7vsY

And finishes up with a quote from Carl Sagan - go Evelyn!

Liamario

Good woman.

Turtwig

Brian Cox got into trouble over his public comments on Astrology once. Evelyn could face likewise if someone reports that to the broadcasting authority. I'm sure she'll laugh in their face but expect a disclaimer on every weather forecast from now "The views of our broadcasters do not necessarily represent the views of RTE.":pac:

Turtwig

The met also released this.

Met Eireann wrote:

Over the past few weeks the media have carried many stories suggesting that the coming winter will be especially severe; that we should all buy in the snow-shoes, stock up on salt, and batten down the hatches.

With this being Science Week it’s a good time to ask – is there any science behind this talk, or is it all pure speculation? To answer that question, we have to look at how weather forecasts are made.

The old folklore-based weather predictions were based on the signs seen in nature. Today’s weather forecasts are no different in that everything starts with weather observations. These days the weather observations come from automated weather stations, from aircraft, from equipment hoisted high into the atmosphere by balloon, from weather radar and from satellite. We can now form a much more accurate picture of what the atmosphere is “doing” at any given time.

Our technology for gathering weather observations has improved immensely too, with high-speed communications enabling us to rapidly gather weather information from every country in Europe, and from across the Atlantic to the Americas. This information is fed into powerful computers that contain a mathematical “model” of the atmosphere in which we attempt to describe, mathematically, all that science has learned about the behaviour of the air around us.

Using this mathematical “model” we can calculate how all the weather elements (high pressure regions, low pressure regions, cold air, mild air, frontal systems) develop in time, and this forms the basis for the day-to-day weather forecasts. The more accurate our starting point, the better the forecasts will be; if we started with a perfect picture of the atmosphere, in theory we could have a perfect forecast.

However we can only ever know the starting point approximately; the atmosphere is too vast and too complex to allow us create that perfect picture. As we look further ahead Chaos Theory gradually takes over and the forecast diverges from reality. There is an absolute limit on how far we can forecast ahead with this method, and that limit is thought to be about ten days.

In attempting to look further ahead, we rely on our knowledge of what is happening in the oceans. The atmosphere and oceans are closely linked. The rain that falls over Ireland comes from water that evaporates from the oceans; the warmer the surface of the ocean, the more water evaporates and the heavier the rain will be when it eventually falls.

The oceans have warm and cold currents, just like the atmosphere. The difference is that change in the oceans happens much more slowly and, in some parts of the world, in a more predicable fashion. If we develop a good understanding of how the oceans will behave over the coming month and longer, we have some basis for inferring the weather patterns. Not the day-to-day detail of weather but the larger patterns as to whether it will be warm or cold, wet or dry, windy or calm.

This method has been used successfully in some regions, notably some countries bordering the Pacific and Indian oceans, to develop monthly and seasonal forecasts that are said to “have skill”, or to be correct often enough to be useful. However these oceans have some large and well-understood evolutions of water currents (such as the El Nino) which in turn affect the atmosphere. The Atlantic has no such large phenomena that change regularly; the changes that do occur are subtle and relatively small, and not easy to predict. The inferences that we can make about seasonal forecasts are therefore weak and result in forecasts with “low skill” – not correct often enough to be of great use.

So, scientifically, it is not possible to make any confident forecast of the coming winter. There is absolutely no reason to believe that it will be unusually severe, but no reason either to say it will be exceptionally mild. The “average” winter remains the most likely outcome.

So where do all the predictions of a severe winter come from? From people who do not understand the complexity of the problem, and who make simplistic assumptions. From people who specialise in speculation, not science.

Source

Turtwig

Jernal wrote: »

This may interest some of the denizens of this forum.
A subscription to nature generally costs over over €200 but for a limited time (very limited!) it's only €50. That's 51 issues for the entire year of a highly reputable science mag.

http://www.nature.com/ecommerce/subscribe.action?productId=NATURE&source=EXTNSO13

Jernal wrote: »

I should really have said €55.:o Bloody VAT.

Got mai first print issue today.

[-0-]

Jernal wrote: »

Got mai first print issue today.

You little legend! Just subscribed for 50 bucks. Yahoo!

robindch

robindch wrote: »

From last night's RTE news, Evelyn Cusack gives the lowdown on amateur long range weather forecasting:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvB-i3t7vsY

And finishes up with a quote from Carl Sagan - go Evelyn!

For anybody interested, there's a feedback from on the Met Eireann website here:

http://www.met.ie/contactus/

I think it's worth leaving a nice comment for Evelyn

robindch

Pythons to work together again (probably):

http://www.irishtimes.com/culture/monty-python-set-to-reunite-for-stage-show-1.1599976

hmmm...

Sarky

Expect the brain-gut axis to pop up more and more in health/nutrition research, it's early days but we're finding out a lot of cool stuff. The PhD I just started has a lot to do with the nicely animated video further down the page. ^_^

http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2013/11/18/244526773/gut-bacteria-might-guide-the-workings-of-our-minds

Brian Shanahan

robindch wrote: »

Pythons to work together again (probably):

http://www.irishtimes.com/culture/monty-python-set-to-reunite-for-stage-show-1.1599976

hmmm...

So the Irish Sun was lying to me (again) when it said that this was a story it had as an exclusive.

Why am I not suprised?

Obliq

Sarky wrote: »

Expect the brain-gut axis to pop up more and more in health/nutrition research, it's early days but we're finding out a lot of cool stuff. The PhD I just started has a lot to do with the nicely animated video further down the page. ^_^

http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2013/11/18/244526773/gut-bacteria-might-guide-the-workings-of-our-minds

That looks seriously interesting. If you ever want a "test family", let me know. IBS and ASD run in the family somewhat, and as I've always said about my myself and my youngest - what bowel wouldn't be irritable belonging to us? ASD traits abound. Hurry up with that research eh?

postitnote

Sarky wrote: »

Sweden is closing some prisons because they just don't have enough criminals to put in them.

Pfft. We did that years ago up north. We called it the Good Friday agreement.

recedite

So mind-altering probiotics are the new shrooms.
But where can we get them? I presume the runny yogurts in the supermarket are of limited potential.
Would licking the doorhandles of the toilets down the pub be a good source?

Obliq

recedite wrote: »

Would licking the doorhandles of the toilets down the pub be a good source?

Awwwwwwwww..........NASTY. I feel sick and I'm not even squeemish (spelling?) usually. Ew. Just. Ew.

Sarky

Well it'd be good practice for your immune system, I suppose. But I'm not going to approve because I don't need some dumb motherf*cker who read that suing me for their typhoid...

Turtwig

Sarky wrote: »

Well it'd be good practice for your immune system, I suppose. But I'm not going to approve because I don't need some dumb motherf*cker who read that suing me for their typhoid...

*Emails Boards HQ*:cool:

Bannasidhe

Jernal wrote: »

*Emails Boards HQ*:cool:

Was it Blasphemy?

endacl

Bannasidhe wrote: »

Was it Blasphemy?

Licking the door handles? A bit phlegmy, but not really 'blasta' ar chor ar bith.

Delirium

For the brainy folk (not me, I suck at maths:P)

Together and Alone, Closing the Prime Gap

On May 13, an obscure mathematician — one whose talents had gone so unrecognized that he had worked at a Subway restaurant to make ends meet — garnered worldwide attention and accolades from the mathematics community for settling a long-standing open question about prime numbers, those numbers divisible by only one and themselves. Yitang Zhang, a lecturer at the University of New Hampshire, showed that even though primes get increasingly rare as you go further out along the number line, you will never stop finding pairs of primes separated by at most 70 million. His finding was the first time anyone had managed to put a finite bound on the gaps between prime numbers, representing a major leap toward proving the centuries-old twin primes conjecture, which posits that there are infinitely many pairs of primes separated by only two (such as 11 and 13).

In the months that followed, Zhang found himself caught up in a whirlwind of activity and excitement: He has lectured on his work at many of the nation’s preeminent universities, has received offers of jobs from top institutions in China and Taiwan and a visiting position at the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, N.J., and has been told that he will be promoted to full professor at the University of New Hampshire.

magicbastarder

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZP7K9SycELA

sbsquarepants

koth wrote: »

For the brainy folk (not me, I suck at maths:P)

Together and Alone, Closing the Prime Gap

Without meaning to sound too stupid, can someone explain to me in simple terms* what use this is in everyday life? Is there any advantage in knowing this or is it just a maths geek thing?




*basically like you were trying to explain to 5 year old, who you suspect might be a bit slow

Turtwig

Unfortunately most things don't show applications immediately. It might never be of use but knowing it is always good. Imaginary numbers are the foundations of modern physics. Yet I doubt you could have told people that when they were discovered/invented.

sbsquarepants

Jernal wrote: »

Imaginary numbers are the foundations of modern physics. .

They're also the bedrock of the banking industry:D

yeppydeppy

Cabaal wrote: »

some interesting stats

What I can't understand is how are over 50% of people in their 30's still identifying as catholic?

Turtwig

sbsquarepants wrote: »

They're also the bedrock of the banking industry:D

Shush!

Then people will blame the mathematicians for the banking crisis. It's bad enough having derivatives abused!:mad:

Hotblack Desiato

sbsquarepants wrote: »

Without meaning to sound too stupid, can someone explain to me in simple terms* what use this is in everyday life? Is there any advantage in knowing this or is it just a maths geek thing?

Many encryption algorithms depend on it being computationally difficult to factorise a large semi-prime number, i.e. figure out which two prime numbers multiplied together go up to make that number. If someone can figure out a way to solve the factoring problem then it would have major implications for making and breaking codes.

Sarky

Probably no direct use in day to day life, but it'll find uses that affect you anyway. If a new mathematical discovery could be used to break codes in a fraction of the time it normally takes, then you'll be seeing a lot more malicious hacking of your facebook account or whatever, and pay more for security. Or it might help solve some of the massive projects in various research fields, like microbiology or engineering, which would have big knock-on effects on health, medicine, stock markets, engine efficiency or what-have-you.

These days pretty much everything is driven by information, and that makes mathematicians some of the most important (and maybe even dangerous) people on the planet.

Hotblack Desiato

Interactive all-Ireland map of census data:
http://airomaps.nuim.ie/flexviewer/?config=AllIslandAtlas.xml

Here's a taster - the heathen map of Dublin: (NB I'm not going to post the stupidly large full size image like Jernal )

recedite

Looks like they will need to send missionaries to West Cork soon :pac:
Belfast is surprisingly heathen, or maybe not considering all the good it has done there.

Hotblack Desiato

Interesting if you look at the 'no religion' map, and then look at the fertility map down by the quays and Docklands.

Massive lack of fertility in the heathen, hipster penthouse apartment dwellers. They can't all be ghey.

Maybe the Iona Institute are right, we're contracepting and aborting ourselves out of existence














:pac:

Bannasidhe

recedite wrote: »

Looks like they will need to send missionaries to West Cork soon :pac:
Belfast is surprisingly heathen, or maybe not considering all the good it has done there.

Been a massive influx of heathen lesbian atheists into West Cork since the census

Sarky

An enabler, that's what you are.

Bannasidhe

Sarky wrote: »

An enabler, that's what you are.

Jeeeze...just cos one encourages people to move far far away. :rolleyes:

Genghiz Cohen

Sarky wrote: »

An enabler, that's what you are.

I though she was calling herself fat...

Bannasidhe

Genghiz Cohen wrote: »

I though she was calling herself fat...

:eek:

Makes a change from 'but you can't be a diabetic - you aren't fat' I suppose...

Bannasidhe

Seemingly

the Norse God, Heimdallr, would blow the mythical Gjallerhorn to warn of the Viking apocalypse, also known as ‘Ragnarok’, which translates to ‘Doom of the Gods’.

According to calculations, the so-called end of the world is due to arrive on 22nd February, 2014. Norse mythology says that the god Odin will be killed by the wolf Fenrir and all of the other "creator" gods will fall. The world will then be born again and will be repopulated by two humans.

- See more at: http://www.ancient-origins.net/news-general/viking-apocalypse-due-less-100-days-001051#sthash.RhvmnmHK.dpuf


Feckin Gods :rolleyes:

Gbear

Bannasidhe wrote: »

Seemingly - See more at: http://www.ancient-origins.net/news-general/viking-apocalypse-due-less-100-days-001051#sthash.RhvmnmHK.dpuf


Feckin Gods :rolleyes:

I thought I heard recently that what we now consider to be Norse mythology is not what the actual Norsemen believed and was invented at a much later date.

Anyone know anything about that?

Sarky

Now that's an apocalypse I wouldn't mind seeing. It'd probably be 25/50/25 drinking/fighting/wenching.

Bannasidhe

Gbear wrote: »

I thought I heard recently that what we now consider to be Norse mythology is not what the actual Norsemen believed and was invented at a much later date.

Anyone know anything about that?

Sure that can be said about everyone's mythology. :P

Delirium

http://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/bacteria-can-take-ancient-dna

Bacteria can take up ancient DNA.

Can't post a snippet as I'm phone posting

EDIT:

After an organism is dead its DNA can stick around for hundreds, even thousands of years. But this DNA doesn't always just simply decay - bacteria are capable of recycling it into their own genomes. This does have implications in the evolution of bacteria and the development of antibiotics. Recent research has revealed that bacteria can even use the DNA of organisms that are long dead, and even these ancient snippets pass by the bacterium’s normal DNA proofreading mechanism. Lead author Søren Overballe-Petersen from the Centre for GeoGenetics at the Natural History Museum of Denmark published these results this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Sarky

Awesome, another mechanism of evolution that J C will will either ignore or lie about :pac:

Basic gist, while koth is away on his phone:

DNA fragments are continually released by decomposing organisms. It degrades over time, but you can still have, say, snippets of 100 base pairs in length persisting over hundreds of thousands of years. They're all over the place. Bacteria are perfectly capable of incorporating these snippets into their own genomes without the RecA (recombinase, thought necessary for this kind of DNA incorporation until now) gene. And they proved it by getting a naturally occurring species of bacteria to incorporate the DNA from the remains of a wooly mammoth some 40,000 years old. When it doesn't kill the bacterium, it can allow for huge leaps in functionality.

Obliq

Sarky wrote: »

When it doesn't kill the bacterium, it can allow for huge leaps in functionality.

Oh ****. Black death, anyone? Anyone for the black death?

Plague, then. Anyone for plague?

I may be ignorantly scaremongering here, but doesn't there have to be an element of trust in the ethical standards of some scientists here? Or we could be creating all sorts of nasties...

Or maybe I should just go learn some science. Hmmm.

Sarky

Any lab that genetically modifies organisms has incredibly strict procedures and safety measures to ensure something like that doesn't happen. I've just finished reading the biological safety manual for the research institute where I started my PhD. It's a behemoth of a book, and is very, VERY clear on how you go about handling GM organisms (they don't actually work with GM organisms, but they mention it just in case. Safety first!). The work must be done in sealed cabinets with their own air supply (which then gets rigorously filtered and sterilised), organisms have to be stored in extremely secure facilities, both to stop bugs getting out and stop anyone who isn't a trained professional with the right security clearance from getting in at them. Anyone working with them has to go through a very thorough decontamination procedure before and after work. Often includes wearing a full body suit with filter masks and the like.

And if something DOES happen in the lab, there are very good procedures in place to contain and neutralise any problem.

No need to worry.

MrPudding

Sarky wrote: »

Any lab that genetically modifies organisms has incredibly strict procedures and safety measures to ensure something like that doesn't happen. I've just finished reading the biological safety manual for the research institute where I started my PhD. It's a behemoth of a book, and is very, VERY clear on how you go about handling GM organisms (they don't actually work with GM organisms, but they mention it just in case. Safety first!). The work must be done in sealed cabinets with their own air supply (which then gets rigorously filtered and sterilised), organisms have to be stored in extremely secure facilities, both to stop bugs getting out and stop anyone who isn't a trained professional with the right security clearance from getting in at them. Anyone working with them has to go through a very thorough decontamination procedure before and after work. Often includes wearing a full body suit with filter masks and the like.

And if something DOES happen in the lab, there are very good procedures in place to contain and neutralise any problem.

No need to worry.

Not having any background in biology I would guess that this is the type of thing that could happen natuarlly out side the lab. No?

MrP

Sulla Felix

Haha, alright. Tell that to the lab that nearly released a modified K. planticola. Nice home grown armageddon scenario right there.

http://web.mst.edu/~microbio/BIO221_2004/K_planticola.htm

I love science, I think genetic engineering is our greatest, best hope for further bettering the world for the future, but there's plenty to be worried about, because at the end of the day, it's humans who are doing the work, and humans can be mighty stupid sometimes.

Obliq

Sarky wrote: »

...... and is very, VERY clear on how you go about handling GM organisms (they don't actually work with GM organisms, but they mention it just in case. Safety first!). .....
<->
And if something DOES happen in the lab, there are very good procedures in place to contain and neutralise any problem.

No need to worry.

:rolleyes:

Sulla Felix wrote: »

Haha, alright. Tell that to the lab that nearly released a modified K. planticola. Nice home grown armageddon scenario right there.
<->
it's humans who are doing the work, and humans can be mighty stupid sometimes.

:eek:


Ehh...

yeh. Kinda what I meant.

Sarky

Sulla Felix wrote: »

Haha, alright. Tell that to the lab that nearly released a modified K. planticola. Nice home grown armageddon scenario right there.

http://web.mst.edu/~microbio/BIO221_2004/K_planticola.htm

I love science, I think genetic engineering is our greatest, best hope for further bettering the world for the future, but there's plenty to be worried about, because at the end of the day, it's humans who are doing the work, and humans can be mighty stupid sometimes.

Nearly released is not released.

Sulla Felix

Sarky wrote: »

Nearly released is not released.

True, but the nearly part is only there because independent research, completely outside of the authorizing bodies, caught it.
I don't think it's a case of "no need to worry", largely because that can lead to all sorts of risk-taking behavior. People should be worried, because worried people take more precautions.

Obliq

bluewolf wrote: »

Oh my god the replicators are going to kill us all!

No wait that's stargate...

Sarky wrote: »

Nearly released is not released.

*polite cough*

Damn.

*worries about possible genetic basis for polite cough being a virus from a coughing, red haired ape from 30,000 years ago with a fatal flaw*




ps. I like bluewolf's comment. Where did it go?

Sarky

MrPudding wrote: »

Not having any background in biology I would guess that this is the type of thing that could happen natuarlly out side the lab. No?

MrP

Could and probably does. A similar example is all the DNA in humans that quite clearly used to be from a virus that inserted itself to the genes, as viruses do, and for whatever reason stayed there. It's not something I'd be concerned about. There aren't any more killer plagues coming along now then there were before that paper was published, and most of us in this part of the world are ticking along pretty well.