Autumn storms - are there any factors in the north Atlantic making one imminent?

ninebeanrows

There is increasing potential for severe weather especially in eastern areas during late Thursday and into Friday. As Hurricane Gordan becomes extratroical and joins with frontal areas it will intensify and crash into Northwestern Spain before racing north into the Irish sea and towards western Scotland on Friday.

The scenarios has been suggested by the ECM model for a number of runs now and is beginning to be supported by the NCEP models.

Areas along the south and east coast could see some severe weather along with torrential falls of rain as this little zippy feature races up the Irish sea over Thursday night. Wind gusts are hard to gauge at this stage. Airing on the side of caution i would expect to see gusts of 70/80mph if the system materialises.

You can see in this evenings run of the ECM that the zippy low crashes into Galicia before racing north and has travelled 800 miles in 24 hours. We do not see the 84hr chart which would have the severe low on the southeast coast at midnight Thursday (unfortunately for the public ECM only produces 24,48hr,72hr etc charts)

http://img476.imageshack.us/img476/2403/72fu2.gif
http://img476.imageshack.us/img476/1338/96gj6.gif
http://img56.imageshack.us/img56/8105/120gw5.gif


The 96hour chart shows wind gusts of 180KM/Hr over Galicia which quite immense to say the least.

GFS suggests sustained windspeeds during Thursday night of around 40KTS along the east coast or 45mph.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn848.png

You've been for warned so keep your in tune with the forecasts. You *might* be lucky to hear about it on Tuesdays forecasts:rolleyes:

mike65

Oh goody, not!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html

Mike.

Trogdor

High risk of flooding too i suppose because of high winds + highish tides + torrential rain.
Possibly something similar to hurricane Charley maybe?

mike65

Ah I doubt that, though if the easterly winds are a factor then some flooding in Waterford, Wexford, Arklow, and Cork (maybe) could happen.

Mike.

Snowbie

Weathercheck wrote:

Airing on the side of caution i would expect to see gusts of 70/80mph if the system materialises.

Ok before this gets way out of hand here,there is only 10% chance of very high winds as of the time of this reply.

This is Sunday Evening,wait untill at least Wedensday before you start predicting Hurricane force gusts.

70/80mph,180KM/Hr,40KTS

Hmmm,you forgot you could also use m/s or maybe even beaufort or the saffir/simpson scale too.

ninebeanrows

Snowbie wrote:

Ok before this gets way out of hand here,there is only 10% chance of very high winds as of the time of this reply.

This is Sunday Evening,wait untill at least Wedensday before you start predicting Hurricane force gusts.



Hmmm,you forgot you could also use m/s or maybe even beaufort or the saffir/simpson scale too.









Ok before this gets way out of hand here,there is only 10% chance of very high winds as of this reply.

This is Sunday Evening,wait untill at least Wedensday before you start predicting Hurricane force gusts.

You seem to have some sort of problem with me and i really do not
know why but i was simply saying the ECM is showing 45M/s winds over Galicia, Spain which is 180KM's.

I have said that winds when/if this storm reaches here would be around 70/80mph gusts but that the GFS models is presently showing 45mph sustained winds.

If you have an issue with my posting please say and try not to post snide and condescending remarks about what i type

Snowbie

Oh dear.
Sorry WC but i have no problem with you whatsoever.
It seems like what your saying is confusing yourself in your OP.
You have a history of exaggerating Weather events that happen in this nation on this forum.
Some posters thinks its fun while others you annoy.
I am split evenly with you for now.
When i have a problem with you,you undoubtly be the first to know.

Oh you dont do sarcasm well,do you?

Or will most of them track up towards Iceland again?

Will a strengthening El nino have an effect?

What do you make of the current td's/hurricanes out there and where they are going with respect to Ireland?

Snowbie

El Nino has been blamed for creating some sort of SW to NE shear steering the Storms away from the US and to mid Atlantic.Usually they be absorbed into a LP system in the North Atlantic and possibly head towards God knows where.
An Azores HP could steer it directly into ourselves or up to Iceland.Its still hard to tell but by then would have lost all tropical characteristics as traveling too much over cooler waters imo.
I think North atlantic storms would be on the increase for Winter though,more than what we have seen in recent years.

boardsdotie

When the tail end of Charley hit 20 Years ago, El Nino was also in effect.
Coincidence?

ninebeanrows

If a chart like this

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind 850 and mslp!96!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2006091800!!chart.gif

does not warrant warning then i really don't know what does.

The ECM is showing at 96hrs a storm with sustained winds of circa 70mph
crashing into southwest england and up the Irish sea.

ninebeanrows

Why was the name of the thread changed???

Okay the latest is that interest regarding this feature is increasing
rapidly. The latest GFDL run which is used to track Hurricanes and
tropical storms has the system between the Azores and Ireland
as an extra tropical storms with Hurricane CAT 3 winds on its
eastern eyewall. This is quite immense and unprecidented to say the
least. In the coming hours mesoscale models will begin to bring the
system into it's time frame. But it looks like there is a severe threat
of extra tropical Hurricane Gordon crashing into southeastern Ireland
come Thursday



The Metoffice have just issued what should be the first of many press realeases regarding the issue.

http://www.metoffice.com/corporate/pressoffice/2006/pr20060918.html

All getting very interesting and i will keep everyone posted;)

Snowbie

Weathercheck wrote:

Why was the name of the thread changed???

The Thread title had not been changed,your thread and a relevant thread was merged keeping the title of the second as it is more of an explanation than exaggeration.
Do not change the title again.

ninebeanrows

The thread title is more akin of a riddle!
Your being totally absurd!

Perhaps you could show some respect towards me your consistent
and sly remarks are a form of bullying :mad:

Unfrotunately folks i won't be posting on here about this event
as i simply am not allowed to post freely under this regime.
Look at for my posts regarding Ireland at www.netweather.tv

ciao

ninebeanrows

I'll leave ya all with this http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind 850 and mslp!72!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2006091812!!chart.gif

Take care if it gets wild out there;)

Snowbie

I had enough

Banned.

Snowbie

Thread reopened.
After posts were made in the wrong thread on this topic,please continue with them here.

darkman2

Very strong, damaging gusts and very heavy rain with flooding probable especially in the South through Thursday. Anything really up to 85mph gusts.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif

kaizer

Wave height - Who's goin surfin? :eek:

darkman2

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rngp601.gif

Not in this!..lol

Villain

So the West is going to the worst of this then? Met have said up to 100mm of rain will fall over the next few days!!! I take it flooding is likely then?

fatherdougalmag

Why aren't there any warnings on the met.ie site? Just mentions gusty weather and relatively short term warnings. Playing down any significant event e.g:

It may well get stormy on Thursday night, with some severe winds possible, but it will be short lived

.
They mention flooding alright:

Some flooding is likely in places too

It'd be helpful to know where

Maybe they're waiting for tomorrow to come. It's just that the UKMO has already issued warnings of severe weather eventhough they're not expecting anything to happen before Thursday morning.

Snowbie

This is a good article,

There was plenty of debate in the weather forecasting community last week with regards to Hurricane Gordon, that and whether it really was a good idea to change the colour of bags of Cheese 'n Onion crisps to blue (yep, that ol' chestnut still).

It had us thinking... could the UK actually ever be hit by a hurricane in the future? So, we thought we'd open up a few bags of crisps and have a talk about it.

By definition, a hurricane is simply a violent, tropical storm with sustained winds of over 74mph. For them to develop or sustain these characteristics, they need to reside over warm water (temperatures above 26.5c) and have little or no upper level wind shear.

The wind shear is important. Think of a hurricane when you stir your coffee this morning. As the little bubbles swirl around simply drag the spoon across the top 2cm of your drink in a straight line. What you've done is introduced upper wind shear to the system and totally collapsed the circulation.

So, whilst hurricanes are violent and powerful, it doesn't take much to destroy the circulation or cut off the power from the base (i.e if it moves over land and no longer had warm water at its base). OK, it'll take more than a spoon to do this though ;-)

Gordon was slightly different. Even though he was caught up in a powerful jet stream, he managed to retain his circulation for an enormous length of time. This was what raised a few eyebrows in the forecasting community.

Tropical Storms across Europe are usually unheard of, last October, Tropical Storm Vince was the first recorded Tropical Storm to make landfall across Spain after forming between the Azores and Canary Islands over water some 4 degrees cooler than would normally be conducive to development.

Gordon also slammed into the Azores as a category one hurricane. Again, checking the records, we can see that the Azores have seen eight major systems affect the island, six of these since 1990.

So, whether you want to blame Global Warming, or simply the fact that we've only a mere slice of history to reflect back on, something is happening in the Atlantic and given the right conditions, it's only a matter of time before remnants of a hurricane reach the UK still displaying tropical characteristics. When? who knows... but it will happen one day. As for the Cheese 'n Onion crisps? What was wrong with green?

Supercell

Thats a interesting article Snowbie.

I was reading today on the New Scientist site - Global warming nears a million-year high

Articles like this really bring home the unchartered territory we are entering.
Saving grace for the next 15-20 years might be a sunspot minima that will natuarally cool the earth a little (in ordinary circumstances - in reality may just temporaly slow the rate of increase of warming I fear).

Without wanting to sound like a placard waving nutter, proclaming the end is nigh, am a little concerned that in our lifetimes the climate here is going to totally utterly change, unlike anything seen in much of the historical record.

That said, I'm not sure if warmer air did move further north how much of a bad thing that would be for us in Ireland. Sure we might get more stronger autumn and winter storms, but the summers may be much nicer and agriculturally at least, far better for growing other types of crop. In a gobal warming scenario, even with the possibility of hurricanes here I'm thinking they are a price worth paying.

It'll be a long time before we see an upper cat 2 or higher imho and in a normal winter somewhere in the country seems to see (often Malin Head) 100mph+ winds , often extremely gusty too, but people seem to live there just fine already.

Bring em on i say

Danno

What about this:

* Diseases spreading into Ireland from sub tropics
* Insurance rates going through the roof due to storm damages
* Food prices going high because traditional crops cannot grow here (Buy bread in Spain and you'll know about it)
* Coastal flooding and erosion
* Natural wildlife species decimated

Fcukoff to Global Warming I say!

Trogdor

Danno wrote:

What about this:

* Diseases spreading into Ireland from sub tropics
* Insurance rates going through the roof due to storm damages
* Food prices going high because traditional crops cannot grow here (Buy bread in Spain and you'll know about it)
* Coastal flooding and erosion
* Natural wildlife species decimated

Fcukoff to Global Warming I say!

Just a few minor set-backs:D

RedPlanet

Longfield wrote:

Thats a interesting article Snowbie.

I was reading today on the New Scientist site - Global warming nears a million-year high

Articles like this really bring home the unchartered territory we are entering.
Saving grace for the next 15-20 years might be a sunspot minima that will natuarally cool the earth a little (in ordinary circumstances - in reality may just temporaly slow the rate of increase of warming I fear).

Without wanting to sound like a placard waving nutter, proclaming the end is nigh, am a little concerned that in our lifetimes the climate here is going to totally utterly change, unlike anything seen in much of the historical record.

That said, I'm not sure if warmer air did move further north how much of a bad thing that would be for us in Ireland. Sure we might get more stronger autumn and winter storms, but the summers may be much nicer and agriculturally at least, far better for growing other types of crop. In a gobal warming scenario, even with the possibility of hurricanes here I'm thinking they are a price worth paying.

It'll be a long time before we see an upper cat 2 or higher imho and in a normal winter somewhere in the country seems to see (often Malin Head) 100mph+ winds , often extremely gusty too, but people seem to live there just fine already.

Bring em on i say

I don't think it'll be a good thing for us actually.
I just saw Inconvenient Truth which i recommend.
Anyway they were showing satellite photos of a particularly huge glacier in Antartica, and from the photos you could see hundreds of little dark pools/massive lakes forming on the surface of the glacier. The scale of this surprised scientists and in a matter of a month or so, that entire glacier disintegrated and slide into the ocean.
Today scientists see the same thing occuring in Greenland. If Greenland melts and flows into the N.Atlantic, it will:
-raise sea level by some amount
-water down the salinity of the N. Atlantic
This would probably effect the Atlantic Gulf stream that works like a kind of engine churning huge amounts of water around the globe and keeps ireland warm.
The last time this Atlantic Gulf stream was similarly interrupted (Glacier in N.America melted and burst into the Atlantic creating the St. Lawerence seaway) it plunged Europe into an Ice Age.

So i'm not sure if Global Warming means we'll be under water or ice, it's probably not too predictable, besides the climate is a lot different today than it was back then thanks to man-made pollution.

boardsdotie

Is this season heading for the record for the least Atlantic Tropical depressions.

Also

It must be a record for td's gulf streaming across the atlantic in our direction.

Snowbie

boardsdotie wrote:

Is this season heading for the record for the least Atlantic Tropical depressions.

Also

It must be a record for td's gulf streaming across the atlantic in our direction.

You will find your answers here in this thread to what your asking from an abstract i posted [post=52109268]here[/post]