Is Bin Laden Dead?

Villain

From Sky News:

Is Osama Bin Laden Dead?
Updated: 12:41, Saturday September 23, 2006

Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden has died of typhoid in Pakistan, according to reports in a regional French newspaper.

The paper quoted one of the country's secret service reports, saying that Saudi Arabia is convinced that Bin Laden died a month ago.

L'Est Republicain also said a copy of the report was shown to President Jacques Chirac and the French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin.

"According to a usually reliable source, the Saudi services are now convinced that Osama bin Laden is dead," the document said.

"The information gathered by the Saudis indicates that the head of al Qaeda was a victim while he was in Pakistan on August 23, 2006, of a very serious case of typhoid which led to a partial paralysis of his internal organs."

The report, which was stamped with a "confidential defence" label and the initials of the French secret service, said Saudi Arabia first heard the information on September 4.

President Chirac says France is investigating the intelligence reports.

A senior official in Pakistan's interior ministry said: "We have no information about Osama's death."

The US government also says it is unable to confirm the report.

A spokesman said: "It's quite possible there was some talk of this, but in terms of being able to confirm this, that I can't do."

Saudi-born Bin Laden was based in Afghanistan until the Taliban government was overthrown by US-backed forces in 2001.

Since then, US and Pakistani officials have regularly said they believe he is hiding somewhere on the remote border between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Bin Laden could be dead for a while now nobody knows for sure. I think the question here and probably the topic to be discussed is, what difference does it make if he is dead?

I mean I'm sure he has groomed a few people to follow his lead.

If he has died due to an illness is this in some way a defeat for the US i.e. the fact that he died of natural causes and not as a result of America's war on terrorism, surely if they had managed to kill him it would have been a big win for them psychologically?

tallus

If he does happen to be dead, it's good riddance to bad rubbish. No matter who follows or takes over from him will hopefully never get the opportunity to emulate him and that can't be a bad thing.

bonkey

irish1 wrote:

If he has died due to an illness is this in some way a defeat for the US i.e. the fact that he died of natural causes and not as a result of America's war on terrorism, surely if they had managed to kill him it would have been a big win for them psychologically?

Prediction:

"We managed to contain bin Laden and make sure he could commit no more evil acts for the remainder of his life".

"Meanwhile, we've built up a few other characters into freedom-threatening bogeymen to take his place, so the war on terror can continue"

"In other news, GWB has kept America safe from hurricanes for over a year now, proving that the strategies followed in the war on hurricanes are also effective."

Ok, I made up hte last two paragraphs, but I stand by the first. Critics will say its a sign of defeat, supporters will see it as proof the strategy of containment worked.

Villain

The strategy of containment may have worked after 9/11 in the US but it certianly hasn't worked in Iraq.

Darragh29

I doubt very much that he is dead but I also doubt that we will be hearing much more from him on the TV in the future. I'd say with all those NATO troops massed in the Helman Province in Afghanistan, along with the US troops closer to the Afghan-Pakistan border looking for him, along with the Pakistani troops at their side of the border, Bin Laden is starting to feel the pressure and fears imminent capture, so a story is put out about his "death" and he will keep his head down for the future and that will result in his non-capture as troops searching for him will eventually be withdrawn...

Pa ElGrande

Bin Laden is just the poster boy for al-Qa'ida and may have died years ago.
It suits al-Qa'ida leadership to prolong the legend of Bin Laden, since he tries to emulate the existence of the prophet Muhammed, and this appeals to certain disaffected and idealistic muslim's as a powerful rallying call.

There last credible reports are that he was seriously injured in the American attack on Tora Bora in 2001 and was patched up by Ayman al Zawahiri afterwards to remove the shrapnel. From what I have read about him he lived a very frugal lifesytle, so if he's managed to survive this long in the harsh environment of the Afghanistan/Pakistan border regions then he would likely not be in great shape physically, so its entirely credible that he would succumb to a disease like typhoid in a remote location with limited medical assistance.

I reccomend you read "The secret history of al-Qa'ida" by Abdel Bari Atwan, if you want to get a handle on what al-qa'ida is and why it operates.
The real brains behind al-qa'ida is Ayman al Zawahiri and while he lives the group will continue to develop its twisted idealogy.

The current military problems in Afghanistan are due to economics rather than idealogy. NATO went into the southern provinces, just as the opium harvest was gathered and the local farmers perceiving that they would seize their crop and destroy their livelihood fought back.

The Latest Dope - Drug warriors are playing into the Taliban’s hands.
Jacob Sullum
http://www.reason.com/sullum/091306.shtml

Profile: Ayman al-Zawahiri
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/1560834.stm

Manic Moran

Show me the body.

Either way, his damage is done, at this point the joys of Al Qaeda and whatnot will be around a long time whether he's alive or not.

NTM

Wertz

I'm of the personal opinion that Bin Laden's been dead for about 2 yrs.

If this were the case, I'd have to ask myself now, who in the french secret services and the governments they ultimately serve, would have anything to gain by leaking this story.

If he's always been alive and is still alive then who has something to gain from this contrivance?

If he's always been alive and really is dead now, why wouldn't a much bigger deal be made of it....I doubt any one intelligence agency is more privvy to data like this than any other and in light of the death being caused by natural causes, nobody get's to claim credit or kudos for it so why not share such a story instead of holding on to it and leaking it.


Something fishy no matter how it pans out...


...and I have to agree on those points above about policy of isolation and confinement. The US and the Bush administration can't claim credit for pulling the trigger on old beardy c*nt, unless they've secretly developed a means of surgically delivering weapons-grade typhoid in the battlefield so they'll most likely hype up their policy of confinement as a rip roaring success.

Pa ElGrande

Wertz wrote:

If he's always been alive and really is dead now, why wouldn't a much bigger deal be made of it....I doubt any one intelligence agency is more privvy to data like this than any other and in light of the death being caused by natural causes, nobody get's to claim credit or kudos for it so why not share such a story instead of holding on to it and leaking it.

Something fishy no matter how it pans out...

The bit that puzzles me is why did the French government give the ok to leak this information, how do they benefit?

Wertz

According to Chirac, they didn't and he's refused to comment on the death itself, choosing instead to focus on the leak.

Feral Mutant

irish1 wrote:

If he has died due to an illness is this in some way a defeat for the US i.e. the fact that he died of natural causes and not as a result of America's war on terrorism, surely if they had managed to kill him it would have been a big win for them psychologically?

Bin Laden's followers probably aren't too happy about how it happened either. Dying of some disease in the middle of nowhere, not exactly the martyr's death they'd expect.

It could all be a trap though. Intelligence agencies searching for Bin Laden have exhausted all sources and need a new lead. So, a story "accidentally" leaks that he's dead. News reaches Osama who is outraged and sends out another tape to prove he's still alive and intelligence agencies leap on it and try to trace it back to his location. [/crazy theory]

Andrew 83

From what I can tell from reading various things, apart from being a public figure people could draw inspiration fromo, bin Laden's main contribution to terrorism was to fund various projects. Therefore presumably his death would be a loss to those planning various things in the region as it's a major financier gone. In terms of the public figure it probably makes minimal difference.

philologos

BBC covered this too on their website http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/5374160.stm

for people who say good riddance to bad rubbish, it could be argued that Ehud Olemert and his military are also bad rubbish.. 5 people dead in Gaza in 9 hours on Thursday when apparently it isn't occupied anymore...

vodalink

I been thinknig the same thing for a while now. If he was alive surely we would have seen video footage of him boasting about the 7/7 bombs and all the other post 911 things that have happened.

And to be honest in a very conspiracy theory way, It wouldnt be in the American Interest if he were dead. Surely If it were true and shown he was dead, the American people would think justice had been served and the war on terror was finished.

And to be honest I dont think Al Qa Ida are a real big threat any more. Most of there Terroists are now home grown, There seem to be raging a war in Iraq and Afghanistan, and what terror acts they have sone, 9/11 The spanish train bombings as bad as they seem are no where near as bad as 9/11 was.

Maskhadov

I hope the turd is dead. He is proper scum.

BlitzKrieg

could this have something to do with why the information was leaked in france?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/5345202.stm

Hobbes

Or is could just simply because of the elections in the US.

baztard

This was a deliberate leak by the French government. I reckon they are 80% sure he's dead. If they came out and officially said he's dead they'd need hard proof like a body, which they cant get. Instead they 'leak' it and so theres no one required to back up the leak with proof.

Alan Smith

Dubai - Killed by typhoid or alive and plotting more bloodletting - the fate of Osama bin Laden, the Western world's most wanted terror mastermind but a pied piper for a generation of radicalised Muslim youth, is again surrounded by a swirl of speculation.

The al-Qaeda leader's supposed death, reported by a French regional newspaper, has been greeted with scepticism by politicians, counter-terrorism experts and the Saudis, the supposed source of the report.

Rumours of the demise of bin Laden have surfaced in the past but the 1.92 metre Saudi-born millionaire has come back to haunt his enemies with sporadic threats, broadcast mainly through the Qatar-based al-Jazeera satellite television from unknown locations.

FlutterinBantam

Personally I hope he was nailed to the ground by a air to ground missile and now blends into the red Afhghani earth... But thats just me...

flogen

This whole situation is just ideal for inconclusion.
One could argue that Bin Laden has been dead a long time and this has been covered over so the US has a boogeyman to scare the American people into silence; they've hoaxed videos by him to keep this myth going (they are the ones that authenticate it, remember!)
One could argue that Bin Laden is dead but Al-Queda has kept this quiet so their enemies don't get a vital victory; they've been hoaxing video's and tapes since his death (most have been audio and I'm not sure how many video's have appeared featuring Bin Laden since 11/09/06
One could argue that Bin Laden is still alive but has become so unimportant in the world of terrorism that he may as well be dead.
One could argue that Bin Laden has faked his own death so he can escape pressure and return to some level of normality.

The fact is that whatever happens someone will be sceptical; even if they pulled up his dead body people and did DNA tests to match it all up many wouldn't believe it.
For what it's worth I think that if and when Bin Laden does die, by whatever illness or weapon, it will be very difficult for the US to keep support for the war on terror going. Not because Bin Laden is the heart of terrorism but because the US have made him the figurehead of the movement... they'll have a hard time vilifying anyone else as much as they have Bin Laden, even Al Zarcarwi wasn't as hated in the US as Bin Laden is.

I'm going to move this to Politics as it's better suited there; I notice there's a similar thread in that forum on this topic; perhaps the mods there could merge the two?

oscarBravo

Threads merged, thanks flogen.

nacho libre

flogen wrote:

This whole situation is just ideal for inconclusion.
One could argue that Bin Laden has been dead a long time and this has been covered over so the US has a boogeyman to scare the American people into silence; they've hoaxed videos by him to keep this myth going (they are the ones that authenticate it, remember!)
One could argue that Bin Laden is dead but Al-Queda has kept this quiet so their enemies don't get a vital victory; they've been hoaxing video's and tapes since his death (most have been audio and I'm not sure how many video's have appeared featuring Bin Laden since 11/09/06
One could argue that Bin Laden is still alive but has become so unimportant in the world of terrorism that he may as well be dead.
One could argue that Bin Laden has faked his own death so he can escape pressure and return to some level of normality.

The fact is that whatever happens someone will be sceptical; even if they pulled up his dead body people and did DNA tests to match it all up many wouldn't believe it.
For what it's worth I think that if and when Bin Laden does die, by whatever illness or weapon, it will be very difficult for the US to keep support for the war on terror going. Not because Bin Laden is the heart of terrorism but because the US have made him the figurehead of the movement... they'll have a hard time vilifying anyone else as much as they have Bin Laden, even Al Zarcarwi wasn't as hated in the US as Bin Laden is.

I'm going to move this to Politics as it's better suited there; I notice there's a similar thread in that forum on this topic; perhaps the mods there could merge the two?

yes. it suits both sides to propagate the myth he is not dead. Musharraf at one point even indicated he was dead. There is no way a guy who is in need of daily dialysis could survive in a remote aera of Pakistan. furthermore with vast technologial and human resources pitted against him there is no way they can't know where he is located. It could be the ISI in Pakistan is shielding him and Musharraf can't hand him over as that would risk the collapse of his government. I don't think this is the case.

However, as was pointed out earlier, he is the Elvis of the middle east; some people will still need to believe he is alive.