North Korea to conduct nuclear weapons test

aidan24326

It's easy to understand why NK would want nuclear weapons. The US showed Iraq and Afghanistan exactly what can happen to a US enemy who don't posess nukes. This the irony of the US invasion of Iraq, it was done on the (false) premise of Iraq having WMD's. Yet if Iraq actually had nuclear weapons and the capability of deploying them, the Americans and British wouldn't dare set foot in the place.

In any case a 550 ton bomb is a pretty measly effort. By comparison, the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs were 10K and 15K tons, and the US and Russia are known to possess bombs in the 20-25 Megaton range. (The Russians actually tested a 50 Megaton bomb in the late 60's, a monstrous device). On top of this, NK are believed to not have the missile capability to actually deploy these bombs over any great distance, certainly not to the US or Europe. So I wouldn't be too worried about them nuking us any time soon.

Though even relatively small nuclear weapons in the hands of such a deranged regime is undesirable to say the least.

RedPlanet

Fairly good article about it here:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/HJ06Dg01.html

NK have no quarrel with us, nor the rest of europe, they have just one enemy: the United States.

Nuttzz

RedPlanet wrote:

Tough words Nuttzz, not backed up by any international law.
So it's tough luck.
Looks like NK has joined Pakistan, India and Israel in the nuclear club.
With Iran following close behind huh?

International law isnt worth the whatever its written on as the US/UK actions in Iraq showed.

While I cant see them nuking us either what would the economic effect on a ground assualt by the NK on the South and a Nuclear strike on Japan be, we are talking about 2 major economies that are important to us in the west, this would make the 87 crash look like a christmas party and funnily enough China would get a serious economic benefit from this, assuming that they dont get sucked in (as they did the last time) or the US dont start poping nukes at NK.

toiletduck

RedPlanet wrote:

Fairly good article about it here:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/HJ06Dg01.html

hard to believe he's serious

RedPlanet

Nuttzz wrote:

International law isnt worth the whatever its written on as the US/UK actions in Iraq showed.

While I cant see them nuking us either what would the economic effect on a ground assualt by the NK on the South and a Nuclear strike on Japan be, we are talking about 2 major economies that are important to us in the west, this would make the 87 crash look like a christmas party and funnily enough China would get a serious economic benefit from this, assuming that they dont get sucked in (as they did the last time) or the US dont start poping nukes at NK.

NK have a no first strike policy. Not so the US.
Wouldn't that be ironic now, the US that harbinger of "freedom" and "human rights" unleashing hell on another 3rd world country.
But whatabout those starving North Koreans everybody cares so much about?

Nuttzz

RedPlanet wrote:

NK have a no first strike policy.

That makes me much happier now.... thankfully I've never heard of a regime changing its policy....:rolleyes:

Unpossible

Wouldn't this be a good time for Japan to get a few nukes itself? Or at least announce that it will?

I think if Japan announced this then the chinese would be trying to place sanctions on them, Japan can simply claim that it feels threatened by NK and its nukes. China would then either have to come down hard on NK and force/convince it to give up its nuclear ambitions or simply sit back and allow japan to develop nukes with gritted teeth*.


*edit; the chinese gritting their teeth

Manic Moran

Just correcting a few things...

Gurgle wrote:

I'm no expert on nukes, but isn't 550 tons a bit small?

Yes. Estimates on the actual yield are still varying, but in any case, as nukes go, it's pretty small by modern standards.

I was under the impression that it was more difficult to make sub-kiloton nukes than the big ones. This sounds like the kind of tactical weapon the US have been trying to build.

Not really.

1960s Technology: Variable yield, 0.1kt at the smallest setting.

Whereas there exist states that are members of the same treaty yet do not adhere to it's terms.
USA being one.

The NPT does not mandate any timetable for disarmament, it's more of an aspirational deal than anything else. The various big nuclear powers are arguably acting in accordance with Art VI with their current reductions in their arsenals.

NTM

jank

Its a hypocrisy really.

When Pakistan got the nuke they were placed under sanctions but after 9/11 well them and the west are now best buddies.

This will porbably trigger Japan to mobilise some sort of professional Army of its own especially since a more nationalist prime minister came to power recently and he hinted as much. With their technology and a bit of help from the US they could do it in a very short time. Maybe even under a year(Total guess there!). Of course that could raise tentions with china. They still hate each other!

More so maybe the US could sub-contract out the forgotten star wars project out to them. They have been at it so long they still are nowhere near or close.

Maybe those Japanese brains could crack that nut!

At the end of the day its all a big game of chess, with infinate possiblilties and infinate moves. I wonder will this effect the november elections??;)

Hobbes

Manic Moran wrote:

Yes. Estimates on the actual yield are still varying, but in any case, as nukes go, it's pretty small by modern standards.

There are rumours they of just faked the test with conventional TNT. There is a neutrino monitoring station near NK, (around 1,000KM). Haven't seen any report from them that they picked anything up.

bonkey

jank wrote:

This will porbably trigger Japan to mobilise some sort of professional Army of its own especially since a more nationalist prime minister came to power recently and he hinted as much. With their technology and a bit of help from the US they could do it in a very short time. Maybe even under a year(Total guess there!).

I vaguely remember a figure of 30 days being thrown around (perhaps a CIA estimate) for the Japanese were they to go all-out to develop the bomb on their own. I think they were reckoned to be the nation closest to being able to develop without actually having a nuclear program.

Of course that could raise tentions with china. They still hate each other!

It would be a bad idea all round.

For a US ally to go for the bomb wouldn't be good for anyone. It would either make a mockery of the notion that all nuclear development was unacceptable (for non-club-members, that is), or would force a wide chasm in international relations.

More so maybe the US could sub-contract out the forgotten star wars project out to them. They have been at it so long they still are nowhere near or close.

Check out Dubya's new declaration regarding the US space policy. It may be a reaction to the Chinese lasering a spy sattelite (don't think they damaged it, just painted it), but he made some noises that sounded suspiciously close to militarising space.

http://science.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=06/10/09/1333248&from=rss

I wonder will this effect the november elections??;)

Could do either way. Depends on how they approach it.

Manic Moran

jank wrote:

This will porbably trigger Japan to mobilise some sort of professional Army of its own

This one is beyond me.

They have the third largest defense budget in the world, you think they're manning their fourteen odd divisions with boy scouts?

NTM

Hobbes

Check out Dubya's new declaration regarding the US space policy. It may be a reaction to the Chinese lasering a spy sattelite (don't think they damaged it, just painted it),

Actually they blinded it with the laser.

RedPlanet

A nuclear NK doesn't automatically make a nuclear Japan.
I thought this was a good point, from the article i linked earlier:

The North Korea government of Kim does not care at all whether Japan goes nuclear, or that South Korea and Australia follow suit. In the first place, those countries are practically nuclear-armed because they are under the nuclear umbrella of the US and house American nuclear bases and because Tokyo's military spending is 10 times that of Pyongyang's and Seoul's defense budget is five times that of Pyongyang's. It is too obvious that they are capable of acquiring nuclear weapons at short notice.

The factor that has prevented them from developing their own nuclear weapons is political pressure from the US, not because North Korea was only conventionally armed. The US has insisted that they should be under the nuclear umbrella and buy expensive high-tech weapons from them.

Their becoming nuclear powers will signal that the US is no longer a reliable cop. At long last de-Americanization of the US allies and neutralization of the US in the rest of the world will be set into motion. This is one of the reasons why the Kim administration has every reason to secretly welcome the nuclear arming of junior US allies.

The main enemy to North Korea is the US, the sole surviving superpower in the world. Acquisition of hundreds of nuclear weapons by Japan and South Korea will not have any serious impact on the total balance of nuclear power. Japan and South Korea have too much to lose in a nuclear war with North Korea, while North Korea has little.

It is important to note that the nuclear weapons and long-range means of delivery are not aimed at South Korea and will be common property shared with South Korea under a confederated government.

mike65

Maybe they did'nt actually let off a nuke, just let everyone think they did using conventional explosives. Cheap but effective

Mike.

monosharp

Kaiser_Sma wrote:

They've had them for along time, and were under extreme pressures when they did get them (weather it was right or not is another matter) america periodically reduces it's nuclear weapons, but how do you expect them to give them up when so many of their enemies continuously threaten to develop them. Even if the other countries don't use them it's much easier for them to fall into even less responsible hands.

They've had them for a long time ? Well theres an absolutely pointless argument.

Thats was along time ago, and before sentiments such as your exsisted.

Ah ok. Tell me, if Adolf didn't commit suicide and turned up tomorrow morning hiding out in a flat in Tallaght do you think people would say "Ah sher that happened a long time ago, you fancy a pint adolf ?"

America does and always has done and will continue to do what is in the best interests of America. They don't care about x number of gassed kurd, y number of starving koreans or z number of whatever. Unless of course it affects them in some way.

Theres nothing wrong with the above but don't pretend its anything other then it is.

North Korea are constantly attention seeking, do you think the axis of evil fad changed any of that?

America: Iraq we know you have WMD's, turn them over or we'll kick your ass.
Iraq: We don't have any!!
North Korea: We do!!
America: Iraq we know you have WMD's this is your last warning you sob! we're gonna kick your ass.
Iraq: We DON'T have any you idiots!
North Korea: WE DO!!
America: Right Iraq thats it prepare to be 0wnd!!
.... time passes by .....
America: Ok Iraq maybe you didn't have WMD's afterall. Oh well my bad.
North Korea: *Boom*
America: WTF ??? Hey UN kick those guys asses they have WMD's.

Becasue they are not threats, obviously. Neither of them has any intention of ever attacking the US. Why is it that people want america to have less of a world concern in one part of an argument and unilateral one in another. Any country that isreal is a threat too, has renounsed america on many occasions, why should the US have any intention of protecting them?

Israel are as much a threat to other countries as NK or Iraq ever were.

Tell me why does everything come back to how good a relationship a country has with the US ? Are we on "their" side ? When did we join them ?

Thats much is true, but it's amazing how people ignore what a completly foul regime exsists in north korea whenever the united states is mentioned along side it.

Ah yes the terrible evil regime that exists in NK that we know nothing about because no info is let out of the country.

Would it be more or less evil then the evil regime that exists in Cuba ? A third world country that makes our Health service look like .. well, the joke that it is.

Are the poor starving homeless people in NK treated worse then the poor starving homeless people on the streets of Dublin ? Or are they treated as badly as the poor starving homeless people on the streets of "the greatest country in the world" ?

Oh my god lets free those poor people by putting economic and trade sanctions on NK. Sure we'll probably indirectly kill thousands of poor people and not affect the people in charge at all but what the hell, lets do it anyways :rolleyes:

mike65

Are we on "their" side ? When did we join them ?

Do you want an exact date? Or generally? About the same time the Irish flocked to New York Boston and Chicago in the mid 19th century. Don't let indymedia, or notions of nutrality fool you, we are on 'thier' side.

As for NK regime it makes Castros Cuba look fragrant.

Mike.

Rebeller

Let's call this for what it is: more hypocritical posturing by the corrupt cabal running the US. The United States (and by that I mean the regime and not the everyday joe and jane soaps on the streets of the US) is not concerned by human rights abuses, starving masses, absence of democracy and failure to respect civil liberties and "our" freedoms.

As many other posters here have pointed out, what about all those other nuclear states who fail to respect "human rights", civil liberties etc (e.g Israel, India, Pakistan etc.)? Why is "the world" not shocked and awed by these countries possession of such desctructive, pointless, inhumane devices?

America's outrage is not caused by the mere possession of nuclear weapons. It is caused by a strong form of independent nationalism (however corrupt it may be) outside of the standard globalised, capitalist free market ideal promoted by force by the US. This is about daring to defy the US.

Like the typical school yard bully, the United States insists on its way or the highway. Dissent (even when expressed freely and democratically) is not acceptable. Pursuing an economic model that is not tied in to the corrupt "capitalism for the poor and socialism for the rich" system that prevails in most of the world cannot be accepted under any circumstamces.

All countries targeted by the US for human rights abuses, possession of WMDs all tend to be ruled by strongly nationalistic regimes who have opted out of the US controlled failed economic model.

Let's be serious. We in Ireland have more to fear from the corrupt gombeen men running our cuntry (not mispelled:D )than from the NK nutter or the mad mullahs of iran.

Victor

RedPlanet wrote:

Wouldn't that be ironic now, the US that harbinger of "freedom" and "human rights" unleashing hell on another 3rd world country.

NK is a second world country. :rolleyes:

jank wrote:

More so maybe the US could sub-contract out the forgotten star wars project out to them. They have been at it so long they still are nowhere near or close.

Actually it has progressed.

Frederico

Maybe Bush can weave this into a new fear policy, divert from Iraq for the elections

MooseJam

Victor wrote:

Actually it has progressed.

no it hasn't

jank

Victor wrote:

NK is a second world country. :rolleyes:

Oh because it communist?

Victor wrote:

Actually it has progressed.

Really?

Last test I heard about was an embarresment to the Star Wars Project

Manic Moran

Star Wars in its initial incarnation of armed satellites floating around in space is long nixed. However, a lot of the techonolgy has been adapted, and the US's ballistic missile defense system is progressing along quite handily. There are at least three facets to it, the SM-2MR Blk IVA on a bunch of cruisers and destroyers, the ground-based ABM system, and an airborne laser mounted in a Boeing. Of course, the latter needs a bit of advance warning!

NTM

Lirange

Hobbes wrote:

The best thing the US can do is stay the fuk out of this. Let China, Japan, South Korea handle it.

The US really cannot extricate itself. North Korea is demanding two party talks with the U.S.

NK is contending the failure of the US to settle for two party talks led to this. The US gov't insists on multi-party talks with China, Japan, and SK at the negotiating table. The US has 40,000 soldiers deployed along the DMZ. So it's more than a bit wishful to say the US should just step aside. Although I completely understand the sentiment as the Bush administration has demonstrated it's penchant to foul up everything it touches. I do believe China can and should play the most pivotal role in defusing things. The problem is Kim Jong Il is obsessed with America. His sabre-rattling predated Bush's Axis of Evil gobtrite.

Kim is just bonkers. It's hard to caricature a personality as demented as this man. Supposedly he fries his brain on playstation 10 hours a day. Everyone in South Korea has basicially arrived at the conclusion that the man is clinically insane ... and a demented fan of Rambo & James Bond.

Manic Moran

Lirange wrote:

NK is contending the failure of the US to settle for two party talks led to this. The US gov't insists on multi-party talks with China, Japan, and SK at the negotiating table. The US has 40,000 soldiers deployed along the DMZ. So it's more than a bit wishful to say the US should just step aside.

I think it's a little unreasonable not to have at least the ROK at the table. It's not as if they don't have a particular interest in the matter. Not least, they're in a state of war with North Korea and the US is not, except insofar as it's in the UN which militarily helps the ROK. China was also a party to the cease-fire talks in 1953. Japan might be pushing it a little, but the North Koreans have taken action against Japan as well, so they're also an interested party.

NTM

jank

Kim is just bonkers. It's hard to caricature a personality as demented as this man. Supposedly he fries his brain on playstation 10 hours a day. Everyone in South Korea has basicially arrived at the conclusion that the man is clinically insane ... and a demented fan of Rambo & James Bond.

Im not saying this isnt true but its all conjecture. He may well be at the top of his game but the above is the picture the CIA/ NSA and western media wants you to believe. Whether its true or not....

I know nothing about him and very little about his regime other that its ruled by an iron fist and that they have just joined the nuclear club.

Unpossible

The North Korea government of Kim does not care at all whether Japan goes nuclear

I'll bet money that China doesnt want a nuclear Japan, most people I know from china would do anything to prevent this (but then most of the ones I talked to were from NanJing).

So that was my suggestion, force China's hand by announcing that they (Japan) will develop nuclear weapons unless China makes more of an effort to stop NK.

RedPlanet

Unpossible wrote:

I'll bet money that China doesnt want a nuclear Japan, most people I know from china would do anything to prevent this (but then most of the ones I talked to were from NanJing).

So that was my suggestion, force China's hand by announcing that they (Japan) will develop nuclear weapons unless China makes more of an effort to stop NK.

Ya just don't "force" China's hand, at pretty much anything.
Japan has already announced they won't go nuclear.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/japan/story/0,,1891975,00.html

Manic Moran

Does this sound like a tantrum for attention?

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20556854-2703,00.html

North Korea 'could' fire nuclear missile
Agencies
October 10, 2006
A NORTH Korean official has warned the communist nation could fire a nuclear-tipped missile unless the US acts to resolve its standoff with Pyongyang, a South Korean news agency has reported.

"We hope the situation will be resolved before an unfortunate incident of us firing a nuclear missile comes," the unnamed official said, according to a Yonhap report from Beijing.

(Article continues)

"An unfortunate incident of us firing a missile"

I like that. Pyongyang Pete?

NTM

Hobbes

Normally when a news story says "Unnamed" it is generally full of crap.