North Korea to conduct nuclear weapons test

RedPlanet

So far the western press appear to be to and froing between these themes:
- Kim Jong-il is plain crazy
- The test wasn't real or didn't work
- China is really upset (and hopefully will pull the rug out from under NK)
- The test might start a nuclear arms race

My guess is they are wrong on all counts.

mike65

Fill us in then. Whats your insight?

Mike.

Manic Moran

Oh, on the concept of faking a nuclear detonation with conventional explosions, according to Lawrence Livermore, it can't be done, at least, not that won't be determined after a brief analysis of the seismology reports.

http://www.llnl.gov/tid/lof/documents/pdf/322405.pdf#search=%22seismic%20event%20explosives%22

Per that almost completely undecipherable paper, it seems that conventional blasts, nuclear blasts and earthquakes all have different frequency signatures.

NTM

Lirange

jank wrote:

Im not saying this isnt true but its all conjecture. He may well be at the top of his game but the above is the picture the CIA/ NSA and western media wants you to believe. Whether its true or not....

Nyet.

The info doesn't come from the CIA. The above "picture" originates from statements by Kim Il Jong himself along with the South Korean media. Kim admits to being a patron of all of the above and the South Korean media has delved in deeper by asking North Korean officials. They can't get them to talk about state matters but they love to talk about the quirks and hobbies of their leader. Kim likes it too. He's an attention whore.

nacho libre

I wonder is North Korea's aim in all this to procure an economic aid package from America.

Lirange

RedPlanet wrote:

So far the western press appear to be to and froing between these themes:
- Kim Jong-il is plain crazy
- The test wasn't real or didn't work
- China is really upset (and hopefully will pull the rug out from under NK)
- The test might start a nuclear arms race

My guess is they are wrong on all counts.

My guess is that guessing is not your forté.

andrew

Thoght people might be interested how N Koreas official website feels about kim Jong Il


http://www.kcckp.net/en/news/news_view.php?0+3329

RedPlanet

Lirange wrote:

My guess is that guessing is not your forté.

I don't generally make little comments about posters since it's bad form.

Here i'll help you out, it goes like this:

1st point is rubbish tabloidism.
It's what governments and compliant press do when they need to demonize somebody. Possessing nukes hugely boosts NK standing and undermines American influence and doctrines.

2nd point is a bit moot really. South Korea has said they believe NK have tested a nuke. But is anybody willing to call it's bluff? Not if you believe point #1 anyway.

3rd point is media spin.
America's pride is hurt, the media is desparate to mitigate that.
China released a draft statement to the UN SC, backed by Russia and rejected out of hand by US and their hangerson.
It looks like they did this before Japan tabled theirs, it reads a bit defensive of NK and warning everybody (including NK) not to aggravate the situation. In fact it said that NK hasn't broken any international law, and calls for "prudence" and not really talking "punishment".
Why should China particularly care that NK may develope nukes that point toward it's nemisis the United States? I don't see it hurting China's geopolitics, rather it may allow China more influence in the region (other world players must jockey to get China on-board to deal with NK).

4th media talking point is also moot.
As i pointed out from an article earlier, Japan and South Korea are already ineffect, nuclear armed via their relationship with USA. It matters not (to NK) that Japan or anybody else in the region developes nukes of their own for that will only make USA's nuclear submarines redundant and ultimately decrease US influence in the region (countries possesing their own deterants don't need no silly yankies about), and that NK don't have nearly as much to loose (as Japan and SK do) should hostilities commence.

"NK have nukes, we better bomb IRAN!"
Sounds crazy when you read it first, but that's exactly the sort of Rumsfeld logic we may live to witness.

RedPlanet

I think it'd be interesting if say, the US claimed the nuclear test wasn't real, or didn't work.
It'd be gambling with huge stakes, how terminal do they believe Kim Jong-il is?
And how much do they really give a sh*t about South Koreans, their own troops in that country and Japan?
By the sounds of it NK can unleash pure hell in conventional arms.
If the Kim Jong-il regime collapses or suffers an American attack, would they fire everything?
Seems a mighty big risk for the US to take.

Probably best to step away from the brink, take a deep breath and try to negotiate. I don't see why the US can't agree to the "Security Guarantee" in the Six-party talks.
In fairness NK are dead right to doubt them.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-party_talks

Lirange

RedPlanet wrote:

I don't generally make little comments about posters since it's bad form.

There was little else to comment on. Given that you opined your assertions without any support or elaboration on why you held your views. But in any event I apologise if it sounded curt.

But now that you have outlined your views I feel I can address them.

RedPlanet wrote:

Here i'll help you out, it goes like this:

1st point is rubbish tabloidism.
It's what governments and compliant press do when they need to demonize somebody. Possessing nukes hugely boosts NK standing and undermines American influence and doctrines.

You really feel this man is sane? Have you seen his haircut?

The people most responsible for highlighting his "eccentricities" are Kim and his North Korean handlers. Not the monolithic Western Media. Mind, I am using the term eccentricity as a euphemism.

Sure, it boosts NK's standing in the sense that it brings the international spotlight upon the country. That in itself is not neccesarily a positive thing. That is unless of course it is the spotlight itself which is the goal. It does not improve the condition of the country or Kim's standing within it (he is the unquestioned leader). So what rationale might he possibly have beyond this?

So then would it be your claim that this move is purely a defensive posture? Hasn't the Iraq fiasco basically neutralised any realistic threat from the US? Further, do you really believe that the US had NK in it's crosshairs at any point at all? Yes, we all know that bumbleya included NK in his Axis of Evil gobtrite. But there's this slight tricky problem of ... China. It would be a fool's game for the US to even contemplate aggression or any measure of pre-emptive action ... from both an economic and military standpoint. That has been the case for years. NK doesn't need the protection of Nukes any more than say ... Canada. The US has no designs on North Korea. It's a thorn in their side that they wish would go away and a dilemma they'd really rather not have to deal with. The NeoCon think tank muppeeters that shaped W's policies were/are very ME-centric.

If that would not be a contention for assigning some semblance of rationale to Kim ... then would it be that he is hoping to win over (blackmail) concessions of some sort? Experience hath shown that North Korea secures more aid and resources by playing ball. It's that postive reinforcement thing. Kim has no qualms about making his people suffer. Is it your contention that he is trying to secure concessions to improve the plight of the population of his country?

RedPlanet wrote:

2nd point is a bit moot really. South Korea has said they believe NK have tested a nuke. But is anybody willing to call it's bluff? Not if you believe point #1 anyway.

If this was indeed a nuke ... it was either quite a puny one or a failed exercise altogether. And that's according to French and Chinese scientists/gov't spokespersons.

That's not to say they won't eventually get it right in the future. The fact that they are trying their damndest is reason enough to take it seriously.

RedPlanet wrote:

3rd point is media spin.
America's pride is hurt, the media is desparate to mitigate that.
China released a draft statement to the UN SC, backed by Russia and rejected out of hand by US and their hangerson.
It looks like they did this before Japan tabled theirs, it reads a bit defensive of NK and warning everybody (including NK) not to aggravate the situation. In fact it said that NK hasn't broken any international law, and calls for "prudence" and not really talking "punishment".
Why should China particularly care that NK may develope nukes that point toward it's nemisis the United States? I don't see it hurting China's geopolitics, rather it may allow China more influence in the region (other world players must jockey to get China on-board to deal with NK).

It remains to be seen whether or not China will in your words "pull the rug out" from North Korea. But there is little doubt that China is very unhappy with North Korea. Official government statements from Beijing are consistently reflecting this. The fact that they might disagree with the severity and nature of the sanctions being discussed doesn't alter the fact. It is quite a sea change in their policy to countenance sanctions against North Korea at all. The criticism from China the last few days is unprecedented and they are supporting punitive measures against NK for the first time.

RedPlanet wrote:

4th media talking point is also moot.
As i pointed out from an article earlier, Japan and South Korea are already ineffect, nuclear armed via their relationship with USA. It matters not (to NK) that Japan or anybody else in the region developes nukes of their own for that will only make USA's nuclear submarines redundant and ultimately decrease US influence in the region (countries possesing their own deterants don't need no silly yankies about), and that NK don't have nearly as much to loose (as Japan and SK do) should hostilities commence.

This is true. I'd essentially agree. It may not usher in a nuclear arms race. Nonetheless it increases the tension. That arms race was yesteryear. But the parties are still armed or firmly entrenched in defensive alliances. Though, Japan has reaffirmed it's commitment to remain non-nuclear. This despite reputedly having it's most hawkish president since the post WWII constitution.

RedPlanet wrote:

"NK have nukes, we better bomb IRAN!"
Sounds crazy when you read it first, but that's exactly the sort of Rumsfeld logic we may live to witness.

No argument that Rumsfeld is a clod. But it would be suicide for the GOP.

The absence of logic is less of a concern when there's no juice left in the tank.

Lirange

RedPlanet wrote:

I think it'd be interesting if say, the US claimed the nuclear test wasn't real, or didn't work. It'd be gambling with huge stakes, how terminal do they believe Kim Jong-il is? And how much do they really give a sh*t about South Koreans, their own troops in that country and Japan?

They'd better care about the 40,000 troops in that country. The US public sure as hell does. South Korea is the 10th largest economy in the world and is a major trading partner of the United States. So, yes they care because the US and the whole region have a stake in it. So does Europe and the world economy. Everyone in the region including the increasingly prosperous China has much to lose.

RedPlanet wrote:

By the sounds of it NK can unleash pure hell in conventional arms. If the Kim Jong-il regime collapses or suffers an American attack, would they fire everything?

This US is not going to launch a pre-emptive attack.

RedPlanet wrote:

Seems a mighty big risk for the US to take.

An understatement of epic proportions.

RedPlanet wrote:

Probably best to step away from the brink, take a deep breath and try to negotiate. I don't see why the US can't agree to the "Security Guarantee" in the Six-party talks.
In fairness NK are dead right to doubt them.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-party_talks

The Six Party talks are dead in Kim Jong Il's eyes. He wants no part of the Six-Party talks. He only wants two party talks with the U.S. which the Americans are refusing. Ostensibly because he feels he will have more leverage. He seeks to up the ante and raise the temperature.

Kim is like Buddy from the Indredibles. He refuses to be ignored and he wants to swing with the big boys.

RedPlanet

Lirange wrote:

It remains to be seen whether or not China will in your words "pull the rug out" from North Korea. But there is little doubt that China is very unhappy with North Korea. Official government statements from Beijing are consistently reflecting this. The fact that they might disagree with the severity and nature of the sanctions being discussed doesn't alter the fact. It is quite a sea change in their policy to countenance sanctions against North Korea at all. The criticism from China the last few days is unprecedented and they are supporting punitive measures against NK for the first time.

Actually those weren't my words exclusively, just some wishful thinking from an editorial I read as i was skimming news.
It is not at all clear that China is infact angry with NK to the extent that they'd back sanctions. http://www.guardian.co.uk/korea/article/0,,1891929,00.html?gusrc=rss&feed=12
Btw, there already exist UN Sanctions against North Korea, see Resolution 1695 for example. So criticism from China is not particularly new nor unprecedented.

But compare that Guardian article with the spin from the right:
"China: North Korea must face 'some punitive actions"
http://www.chieftain.com/national/1160553261/1

Insofar as Kim Jong-il being "crazy", lets see some reaction to that tabloidism:
http://www.freenewmexican.com/news/50475.html

Dave!

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2398920,00.html
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/sanctions-tantamount-to-war-north-korea/2006/10/11/1160246184384.html

North Korea warns that US pressure will be act of war
By Devika Bhat, Richard Lloyd Parry in Seoul, James Bone in New York and Jane Macartney in Beijing

North Korea today warned that increased pressure from the United States would be regarded as a "declaration of war" to which it would respond with physical measures, furthering tensions as the UN continues to debate the possibility of tough sanctions against Pyongyang over its claims to have tested its first nuclear bomb on Monday.

Meanwhile, reports also emerged that the regime's second in charge has threatened that his country will carry out further nuclear tests if the US pursued a "hostile attitude". Kim Yong Nam, the president of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly, said in an interview that North Korea’s nuclear actions would depend on US policy towards it.

"If the US keeps pestering us and increases pressure, we will regard as a declaration of war and will take a series of physical corresponding measures," the North’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency. It did not elaborate on what such measures would be.

The statement - the first official announcement from the Pyongyang government since the nuclear test was declared - went on: "We were compelled to prove that we have nuclear weapons to prevent the increasing threat of war by the US and protect our sovereignty and survival. We are ready for both dialogue and confrontation.

However, the regime added: "Even though we conducted the nuclear test because of the US, we still remain committed to realizing the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula through dialogue and negotiations."

The forceful statement echoed comments from the regime earlier today, in which an unnamed official in Beijing referred specifically to the imposition of further sanctions as an act of war. "The harder the pressure will be, the stronger will be the level of our response. If any full-scale sanctions are imposed, we will regard them as a declaration of war," the official reportedly said, adding that a proposed naval blockade would be considered a "full-scale" act.

Separately, Kim Yong Nam, who is second only to Kim Jong Il, said that how Pyongyang responded depended on Washington's response. "The issue of future nuclear tests is linked to US policy toward our country," Mr Kim told Japan's Kyodo news agency today, when asked whether Pyongyang would conduct any more nuclear tests. "If the United States continues to take a hostile attitude and apply pressure on us in various forms, we will have no choice but to take physical steps to deal with that."

He also suggested that Pyongyang was ready to return to stalled six-party talks, if sanctions against the reclusive regime were lifted.

"We cannot attend the six-party talks while various sanctions, including financial sanctions, are imposed on us," said Mr Kim, appearing to refer specifically to US sanctions on a bank account in Macau, which was frozen after being accused of laundering money for North Korea.

Mr Kim's remarks were the first made in public by a senior North Korean official since Pyongyang’s claim to have carried out the test, despite UN warnings. The announcement has triggered global condemnation and calls for punitive measures in response.

But Mr Kim mocked calls for tougher action, saying that his country was already under a raft of international sanctions which he claimed had little effect.

"Even as economic sanctions increase by day, our economy in general has entered a rising trend," he said, also making specific reference to the impact of Japanese sanctions.

"We have lived our lives without Japanese help up until now, and we will continue to do so," he said.

Japan has reportedly decided to impose fresh sanctions against North Korea, with the move expected to be formalised at a meeting of the country's National Security Council later today. Cabinet ministers who had gathered at the Prime Minister’s office declined to comment on the move.

:eek:

Anyone else a little bit nervous about this? I knew it was somewhat tense, but now Korea are saying they'll go to war with the US?! Is this more posturing?
It'll be interesting to see the US's response to this... Call their bluff or back down? Can the US spread their military any more thinly?
I wonder how the public would react to a war with N.Korea (if it got that far).
Kim Jong-il is probably seen as the bad-guy by most of the US, but there's probably a fair number of people who will see it as hypocrisy on the US's part.

Still... scary developments...

TerrorFirmer

I don't think the US could ever afford to attack North Korea in the conventional sense. For the last decade or so NK has been focusing alot of attention on upgrading their armed forces and defensive capabilities. Not that mind, they would actually be a match for the might of the US military, but they would certainly be able to put up a fight.

They have massive underground networks to evade air attack and survellance as well. Alot of their defensive strategy and organisation is based upon a war senario with the US actually.

Basically, I don't think the US in their current position could enter into another war that would most likely prove 10x as bloody as their current entanglements, which appear to be loosing support all the time.

Dave!

Indeed, so they're gonna have to back down now it seems! Or pray for the UN to get the lead out, anyway.

fly_agaric

RedPlanet wrote:

But compare that Guardian article with the spin from the right

The Guardian is hardly a "no-spin-zone" even if you personally approve of any biases it may have.
I'd imagine the Chinese govt. are not happy at all with these developments regardless of whether they think sanctions suit their own interests or not.

RedPlanet wrote:

Insofar as Kim Jong-il being "crazy", lets see some reaction to that tabloidism

Alright. Would you prefer "warped" rather than "crazy"? Does that sound better? Or "evil" maybe?

Hobbes

"crazy" is a great term. Its like "Liberal". It allows you to basically answer any argument without bringing any real answer to it.

Why have discussions with him when hes crazy?

The fact is I believe him to be far then crazy. You don't hold a position such as his if your crazy and you don't push your country to researching and creating nuclear weapons if your crazy.

Crazy also tends to be implied that he will "push that button". While I have no doubt if he was dying he might give it a shot but like all dictators they prefer to look after thier own skin and way of life first. Also while on his death bed he may want to take it all with him, I am pretty sure there are a large number of people also in power that may have other ideas about that.

For now its posturing nothing more.

Lightholler

Just heard that North Korea'sfurious response is down to the Irish motion at United Nation's HQ, which involved handing over Steve Staunton to the North Korean international side.

Manic Moran

It's probably a bluff. The only way a war is going to start over this is if the North crosses the border South, or if the Chinese decide they're finally fed up with Kim and choose to install new management. The former is more manageable, if ugly, the latter is not overly likely.

NTM

bonkey

fly_agaric wrote:

I'd imagine the Chinese govt. are not happy at all with these developments regardless of whether they think sanctions suit their own interests or not.

I wouldn't be so sure. I don't really see the negatives for them, but there's a lot of positives.

The biggest positive I see is that it might goad the US (as someone already pointed out I think) into changing tactics with Iran. That could be playing right into the Chinese hands, as it suits them for more and more Middle East oil to have the "bound for USA" tag taken off it.

Alright. Would you prefer "warped" rather than "crazy"? Does that sound better? Or "evil" maybe?

I'd agree with Hobbes' read. Applying any of these terms is used simply to invoke an emotive response, on top of or instead of a rational one.

Hobbes

The former is more manageable, if ugly, the latter is not overly likely.

I personally don't think the former is even possible anymore. It was a different issue back in the 1950's. Korea was just coming from Japanese occupation 5 years previous and was pretty much classed as a third world country around then.

North Korea then was better armed, more army and used an offensive similar to blitzkreig. They held the key points in short amount of time.

Even if we ignore the rest of the world for the moment not stepping in South Korea is far from what it was 50 years ago. It has a well armed army, good resources and more people. The border has also more mines then anywhere else in the world. They won't be sending ground troops over easily at all.

They can missile the fuk out of SK but it will mean the same if not more level of retaliation.

Drapper

I've been like Hobbes to South Korea and I've been in North Korea on day trips (on the Chinese side near Dandong and on the South Korean side near the DMZ, sound people but deeeply scared) and I've seen what these guys are capable of.

Its plane foolish to avoid the plight of this poor nation. I fell this is a cry for help and recognition by the world of the impacts of American foreign policy on North Korea.

Reconciliation is what all Koreans want and with no American input. Look at the sucess of American foreign policy has been!

The Chinese hold the key to this issue and they need to be kept onboard! Again rational thinking people.......

mike65

andrew wrote:

Thoght people might be interested how N Koreas official website feels about kim Jong Il


http://www.kcckp.net/en/news/news_view.php?0+3329

Kim Jong Il has dedicated himself to the human cause of independence for a long time, performing outstanding ideological and theoretical exploits which no other politicians and great men in history can ever match.

Check the official DRNK site.

Plus indymedia speak from Kim Jong Il (now I know where they get thier strange syntax from!) Let us exalt the brilliance of Comrade Kim Il Sung's idea on the youth movement and the achievements made under his leadership

Mike.

Manic Moran

Hobbes wrote:

I personally don't think the former is even possible anymore.

I don't think that their winning is particularly possible any more. That they might give it a shot anyway is not totally beyond the realms of possibility, however.

Even if we ignore the rest of the world for the moment not stepping in South Korea is far from what it was 50 years ago. It has a well armed army, good resources and more people. The border has also more mines then anywhere else in the world. They won't be sending ground troops over easily at all.

Easily, no. Can it be done? Yes. I remind you of the case of the "World's Biggest Anti-Tank Ditch". In 1973, a second-rate military managed to do something that the Americans and Soviets (and not least the Israelis) thought impossible by crossing a barrier much quicker than anyone expected. It proved yet again that if you think about an obstacle long enough, you can figure out how to get around it, and that over-relying on the effect of obstacles can be disastrous. Minefields are delaying obstacles in the case of the DMZ, and you can rest assured that the DPRK Army have a few mineclearing units prepped. The best delaying feature that the South has are the multiple defensive lines South of the DMZ, literally coast-to-coast concrete barriers. Even the roads can be blocked, they just blow these 'obstacles we prepared earlier.'
(For those who, unlike Hobbes and Drapper, have no idea what they look like)
Even at that, though, all it will do is buy time for mobilisations and deployments, it won't stop the DPRK.

They can missile the fuk out of SK but it will mean the same if not more level of retaliation.

Even without sending troops over, Seoul's ten million concentrated people are within range of tube artillery and rockets, of which the DPRK has a lot, and well entrenched. They can make the Israeli bombardment of Lebanon look like a minor scuffle.

NTM

Manic Moran

Drapper wrote:

I fell this is a cry for help and recognition by the world of the impacts of American foreign policy on North Korea.

Reconciliation is what all Koreans want and with no American input. Look at the sucess of American foreign policy has been!

The Chinese hold the key to this issue and they need to be kept onboard! Again rational thinking people.......

Not that I argue with the bit about the Chinese, but I'm curious as to how the fact that DPRK has been in a state of declared war with the ROK for the last almost 60 years, which brought in combat units from the UN on one side, and the PRC on the other, making it quite a multinational concern, and adding to it small issues like the DPRK conducting things like kidnappings in Japan are the fault primarily of American foreign policy. The frequent exchanges of fire, even the assault on the Blue House, with ROK can at least be explained by the continued state of war. (As can any negative feelings or reprecussions caused as a result)

NTM

fly_agaric

Hobbes wrote:

"crazy" is a great term. Its like "Liberal". It allows you to basically answer any argument without bringing any real answer to it.

Why have discussions with him when hes crazy?

Fair enough. I get you. The fact that "He's a nut" can serve as an reason for either doing nothing (or worse doing something which is irrational except when you decide you are dealing with a "nut" who will not act rationally anyway).

Bonkey wrote:

I'd agree with Hobbes' read. Applying any of these terms is used simply to invoke an emotive response, on top of or instead of a rational one.

Okay. It is safer for me speak the truth because I'm not the leader of the US so no one important will get emotional about what I say (OMG he's evil - lets bomb the country to make the world a better place) and I won't have to try and deal with N. Korea after I've told everyone that I think Kim Jong Il and his regime are evil!

Drapper wrote:

Reconciliation is what all Koreans want and with no American input.

Are you sure they want no US input?
Are they not (like Japan) still expecting the US to help defend them if the worst comes to the worst (which gives the US more of a stake in these matters)?
If the South told the US to get their troops out of the country the US would not really have any choice but to comply, would they? How could they say no?

About reconciliation, it is plain N. Korea doesn't want that at the moment and its current ruler only cares about himself. His power and the power of his regime.

Sgt. Sensible

BBC wrote:

A US military spokesman has claimed that North Korean border guards have been spitting across the demarcation line, flashing their middle fingers and making throat-slashing gestures with their hands.

"They're walking a little taller," said Jose DeVarona, US Army Major from North Carolina.

This really does feel like a place where the Cold War never came to an end, and where the slightly comic one-upmanship which characterised that era continues to this day.

On both sides, the hand-picked troops who man the demarcation line are said to be the tallest in their respective armies.

Then there was the famed face-face meeting between the two sides - conducted across a conference table bisected by the military demarcation line - which apparently lasted 11 hours without a toilet break.

Neither side was prepared to flinch. The meeting became known as the "Battle of the Bladders".

I hope this sort of thing goes on forever.

Manic Moran

It took several days of negotiations in 1953 to settle on the sizes of the flags in the negotiation room at Panmunjom before they could figure out how to put together an armistice. If I recall, the final conclusion was that the ROK flag is 'deeper' than the DPRK flag, but the DPRK flag is longer. The ROK flag has a two-tiered based, the DPRK flag has a three-tiered base, but the two-tiered base is slightly larger than the three-tiered base.

NTM

mike65

ROFL! That reminds me of the negotations by Irwin Allen between Paul Newman and Steve McQueen on who's name would go where on the opening credits of The Towering Inferno!

Mike.

Sgt. Sensible

It's like the Lilliputian big endian and little endian factions in Gulliver's Travels. Only not as funny because of the misery, starvation and bloodbath threat.