7 reasons why we could have 5 more years

is_that_so

With less than a year to go, six months if Bertie is to be believed, the stage is set. At a glance it looks as if it will be 5 more years. Failing some disaster the incumbents could easily sneak back in again and set up shop. That is disappointing but of greater disappointment are the reasons why.

1. Opposition

Excluding the inconceivable option of Sinn Fein in Government, the rainbow of Labour, Fine Gael and maybe the Greens, have nothing to offer.
They seem only capable of launching broadsides at the Government. Then they pat themselves smugly on the back and wait for each opinion poll only to scratch their heads when we don't like them more.

2. Number of Independents

With every election we get more of these. Some are single issue candidates. Some actually perform well but all are there to shout their own case. Many will not be averse to making unpalatable decisions like signing up with the government that shut down x hospital in order to extract their own deals. They can be notoriously unreliable but their votes can be for sale at the right price.


3. The Devil We know

Apart from some personalities who people take a dislike to , why fix what is not broken? A good reshuffle with some more attractive and even competent individuals could see the troops through another 5 years.

4. Apathy

Begrudgery is one of our less pleasant traits and never better when we can find someone to blame for our own ills. Government is for the people by the people if only they could be bothered.


5. Big issues

Whoever is advising the government, aside from a few GUBUs lately, know where the big pickings are.
Health is a disaster and will not be fixed in time , if ever. Education on the other hand benefits enormously from money being thrown at it. And they have one of the most able ministers in a long time doing it.
Increasingly there are also votes in green policies and any number of these, even the controversial drift netting issue will add to their credibility. Impending Kyoto fines will also concentrate minds.

It is not that the government are necessarily any good at fixing or developing things . To be honest their history is extremely chequered but they do have a lot more experience at announcing schemes that may or may not come into effect.


6. Show me the money

Anything that eases the burden between now and next June will be a point up for the incumbents. The rumours about car tax going green will certainly add some brownie points if true. Even if the Budget is not a giveaway there may be targetted giveaways that won't cost much but will make us feel better off.

7. Spin

A kinder better Ireland or something like it. Whoever can sell it best may get the job. The government hold the purse strings on that one and can work the numbers to paint their vision.

SeanW

I fear you may be right

sovtek

Please please please...I can't vote...so please, I'm on my knees and tears in my eyes....PLEASE ya'll get rid of FF!!!!!!

SeanW

I'll do my part.

DMC

I tend to agree with all of your points bar..

is_that_so wrote:

2. Number of Independents

With every election we get more of these. Some are single issue candidates. Some actually perform well but all are there to shout their own case. Many will not be averse to making unpalatable decisions like signing up with the government that shut down x hospital in order to extract their own deals. They can be notoriously unreliable but their votes can be for sale at the right price.

Single issue candidates/Small parties was where the protest vote went in 2002, not to Fine Gael. In fact that's where FG's vote went to (and to the PD's to prevent FF going it alone)

I've always reckoned that FF have a core seat count of 70. A seriously bad day for FF will be if they go below 77-75. FG and Labour have to pick up the Independents, its that simple. They have to get the message across that hospital candidates don't work, and only they can get the votes to get another government in.

Its that simple. 20 seats are there if they fight for them. Votes don't swim between FF and FG.

The public voted for all those independents because they were drunk on the "success" of Mildred and Jackies bargaining.
It didnt work out for them as one of the independents joined FG and the rest had no bargaining power at all due to too many pd's getting elected.

I'd imagine that "independent" block will migrate back to wherever it came from next time.
The polls reckon thats FF.

Akrasia

I reckon the next election depends entirely on the state of the housing market by june. If it's in a serious decline, FF will be trounced.

Cronus333

DMC wrote:

I tend to agree with all of your points bar..


Single issue candidates/Small parties was where the protest vote went in 2002, not to Fine Gael. In fact that's where FG's vote went to (and to the PD's to prevent FF going it alone)

I've always reckoned that FF have a core seat count of 70. A seriously bad day for FF will be if they go below 77-75. FG and Labour have to pick up the Independents, its that simple. They have to get the message across that hospital candidates don't work, and only they can get the votes to get another government in.

Its that simple. 20 seats are there if they fight for them. Votes don't swim between FF and FG.

FFs core I believe is lower than that. On a really, really, really bad day they could go to the depths of 65 seats. They've gone down to 68 in the not so distant past.

I'm inclined to agree otherwise with you.

galwayrush

terrible state of affairs. looks like Spin will win the day. never has a goverment squandered so much money and yet the people forget so quickly.
maybe it's a case of " never underestimate the stupidity of the Irish electorate ":mad:

Firetrap

The old adage of "all politics is local" will also come into play. A lot of people will always vote for their local FF TD regardless of the performance of the government. By rights, the people of Waterford should kick Martin Cullen's smug, arrogant, incompetent ass into the sea. But they won't because he's a minister and it's perceived that places do better with a minister

Hotblack Desiato

allie_e17 wrote:

it's perceived that places do better with a minister

Unfortunately (because ministers are supposed to be looking after the whole country not their local patch) it's reality. Just look at every past decentralisation programme - all went to the constituency of the minister of the Department concerned - and look at how many jobs are (supposed to be) going to Parlon / Cowen country. Using national resources to buy local votes is just another form of corruption in my book.

There was a minor kerfuffle a while back about how Cullen allegedly ordered that free shuttle buses be provided to some event in Waterford.

MontgomeryClift

"The worst government in the history of the state" - Charles J. Haughey.

Children being taught in portocabins, people dying on trolleys in hospital corridors, practically no planning or public transport, a bloated, overpaid civil service, 4-4.5% inflation and rising, an uncompetitive economy, complete dependence on the overheated construction industry, unaffordable houses, unnecessary motorways and a neglect of rail, the most car dependent country in the world, the highest paid ministers in the world, one of the most expensive countries in the world, persistent poverty, road deaths, no resistance against strong unions (teachers, farmers), planning corruption (Bertie, Thornton Hall), uncontrolled Dublin sprawl across Leinster etc. etc. etc.

You can't say it's a work in progress because it's too late for that.

I'd like to see the Greens in government. Mary Harney said there were things she admired about the Greens but their carbon tax ideas were silly. Now it seems the Greens were right and carbon taxes are being accepted across Europe as the best way to force the energy issue and avoid economic disaster. That's Green policy. It seems extreme but it just takes a few years for the rest of the world to catch up and realize they should have listened to the Greens.

ClockWorkOrange

I'm actually emigrating to Canada because i cannot live in this country anymore, its an absolute mess, the last time i came back to Ireland i was shocked by the rampant incompetence of the government and the civil service..the apathy of the general person, and the criminal stupidity and lack of foresight of the politicians and the local councils..

Changing political parties will not help, there needs to be a fundamental shift in the attitude of the people..

DMC

MontgomeryClift wrote:

I'd like to see the Greens in government. Mary Harney said there were things she admired about the Greens but their carbon tax ideas were silly. Now it seems the Greens were right and carbon taxes are being accepted across Europe as the best way to force the energy issue and avoid economic disaster. That's Green policy. It seems extreme but it just takes a few years for the rest of the world to catch up and realize they should have listened to the Greens.

And that would be a reason why the Greens might never see power.
The major parties have to embed green policies into their manifesto to withstand the Greens, and they are doing so.

ClockWorkOrange wrote:

Changing political parties will not help, there needs to be a fundamental shift in the attitude of the people..

More so, a shift away from parties created by the Civil War would be a start. The two largest parties are broad churches, and the only discernible difference between the two is, they are not the other one.

Rebeller

ClockWorkOrange wrote:

I'm actually emigrating to Canada because i cannot live in this country anymore, its an absolute mess, the last time i came back to Ireland i was shocked by the rampant incompetence of the government and the civil service..the apathy of the general person, and the criminal stupidity and lack of foresight of the politicians and the local councils..

Changing political parties will not help, there needs to be a fundamental shift in the attitude of the people..

The electoral process will not bring about the type of changes needed. This government, more than any other, has sold the interests of those who they are meant to serve to a tiny unhealthy, self-serving group.

The "government" should not be seen as some removed, elitist group who control and master us. They are our servants and representatives (this is still a constitutional democracy is it not)?.

They need to be removed by force if necessary and true democracy returned to the people.

The proposed prison at Thornton Hall could then be put to good use housing the members of our current (mis)administration while they await trial for the treasonous, venal, corrupt and incompetent rule that we have experienced over the past 8 years.

MontgomeryClift

DMC wrote:

And that would be a reason why the Greens might never see power.
The major parties have to embed green policies into their manifesto to withstand the Greens, and they are doing so.

Yes, but the Greens in that last poll were up 2 from 6% to 8%, weren't they? That's near Labour's 10%.

I think that when the current government (and Fine Gael) is so un-green, people who are appalled at them will tend to vote Green. And not just on environmental issues, but on housing, transport and education - Things that this government has let slip completely.

ANXIOUS

cant wait to walk down to drumcondra on the morning of the g/e and tick bertie, it truely is a great feeling to back a winner. Everyone who votes for labour f/f should really change this time to experience the feeling. When was the last time you felt it?

DMC

MontgomeryClift wrote:

Yes, but the Greens in that last poll were up 2 from 6% to 8%, weren't they? That's near Labour's 10%.

I think that when the current government (and Fine Gael) is so un-green, people who are appalled at them will tend to vote Green. And not just on environmental issues, but on housing, transport and education - Things that this government has let slip completely.

A lot of parties in the history of this state get 10% yet never see power.
The name "Green" to a lot of members of the older voting public tend to make them out as a single issue party. I know that there is more to them bar green policies, but we generally dont get to hear their thoughts on pensions, health care etc. Just the green taxes, nuclear etc. Younger people are more likely to vote Green, but for a lot of conservative (small c) Ireland, and the old folk vote more than the general boards demographic, they are simply a non-runner, and wouldn't like to see the Greens in coalition.

ballooba

ClockWorkOrange wrote:

I'm actually emigrating to Canada because i cannot live in this country anymore, its an absolute mess, the last time i came back to Ireland i was shocked by the rampant incompetence of the government and the civil service..the apathy of the general person, and the criminal stupidity and lack of foresight of the politicians and the local councils..

I have actually been considering what I would do if FF did get back into government. I would seriously consider emigrating myself.

I can't continue living in a society where the government continually piss all over us and we still turn the other cheek.

ballooba

ANXIOUS wrote:

cant wait to walk down to drumcondra on the morning of the g/e and tick bertie, it truely is a great feeling to back a winner. Everyone who votes for labour f/f should really change this time to experience the feeling. When was the last time you felt it?

I can't wait to walk down to the polling station in Ranelagh and write numbers beside every non FF/PD candidate (maybe not SF).

That includes Mc Dowell, I'd sleep a lot better at night knowing he was gone back to the four courts where he can do a little less harm.

ClockWorkOrange

ballooba wrote:

That includes Mc Dowell, I'd sleep a lot better at night knowing he was gone back to the four courts where he can do a little less harm.

I could not agree more, Michael Mc Dowell actually scares me, he clearly does not have the intelligence and foresight to be a government minister and especially not for Justice..

Look at the fireworks thing, he throws ridiculous draconian laws at every problem..instead of understanding the nub of the matter and trying to deal with it in a logical manner...

I'm jumping this sinking ship...

Rb

I personally won't be voting for FF, I'd rather the Communist Party of Ireland got my vote (they won't though) than FF and I can only pray that theres a majority who are the same. Unfortunately, I can see it as a real possibility that they'll get another 5 years

ClockWorkOrange

ClockWorkOrange wrote:

I'm actually emigrating to Canada because i cannot live in this country anymore, its an absolute mess, the last time i came back to Ireland i was shocked by the rampant incompetence of the government and the civil service..the apathy of the general person, and the criminal stupidity and lack of foresight of the politicians and the local councils..

The equivalent of posters who say 'look at me, I'm leaving, I'm stamping my foot and going, here's my leaving thread'...

Economy booming, conflict in the North winding down, I'll hang around. We've never had it so good. Or at least not in my memory anyway - you see I remember the 80s. Anyway, enjoy Canada.

ClockWorkOrange

Deleted User wrote:

Economy booming, conflict in the North winding down, I'll hang around. We've never had it so good. Or at least not in my memory anyway - you see I remember the 80s. Anyway, enjoy Canada.

Ya well done conor, have you ever actually been out of the country?

How about 40000 on the driving test backlog, carnage on the roads, astronomical house and property prices, inflation out of control, health care a disaster, massive amounts of debt etc etc...recession and property collapse looming..

Stay here conor, you are the type of person the government loves, happily take it up the ass and come back for more..

ballooba

Deleted User wrote:

Economy booming, conflict in the North winding down, I'll hang around. We've never had it so good. Or at least not in my memory anyway - you see I remember the 80s. Anyway, enjoy Canada.

The economy is booming more for some (friends of FF: Builders, Civil Servants) than for others (Mortgage Payers, Tax Payers).

While the North appears to be a matter close to your own heart, I'm not so sure how relevant it is to:
-the man sitting in A&E waiting for a bed
-the motorist in frequent near death situations with L drivers
-the commuter travelling 20 hours a week in gridlock
-the two working parents of a child growing up in a creche who lie awake at night thinking who will pay the mortgage if either lose their job

layke

Deleted User wrote:

The equivalent of posters who say 'look at me, I'm leaving, I'm stamping my foot and going, here's my leaving thread'...

Economy booming, conflict in the North winding down, I'll hang around. We've never had it so good. Or at least not in my memory anyway - you see I remember the 80s. Anyway, enjoy Canada.

We didn't have the EU's cash flow back then. I see FF supports going on about how good they made the country when in fact they really didn't do anything except join the EU and got free money, then took the credit.

The North, yes i'll give them that but the only reason we have negotiations is because the Ra's funds got cut in the US imo forcing diplomacy. That and the fact people were getting fed up with their ****e and losing support.

Raskolnikov

ClockWorkOrange wrote:

I'm actually emigrating to Canada because i cannot live in this country anymore

Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out buddy.

ClockWorkOrange wrote:

How about 40000 on the driving test backlog

Oh right, beauracracy has been eliminated from Canada, let's all up and leave.

ClockWorkOrange wrote:

carnage on the roads

Wow, you mean Canada has discovered a way to stop boy-racerism and eliminated boozed up youngsters from taking the wheel? Where can I repudiate my irish citizenship?

ClockWorkOrange wrote:

astronomical house and property prices

Where does it say that everyone has to own the dwelling they're living in? If you're renting, Ireland is far cheaper than Canada (relative to average earnings). I do this and save the cash that I'd be spending on a jumbo mortgage and do quite nicely.

ClockWorkOrange wrote:

inflation out of control

Really? That's absolutely awful, let me post the statistics since you were too lazy to back yourself up.

Canada Inflation Rate: 2.3%
Irish Inflation Rate: 4%


1.7% higher than Canada, how do we survive in this country :rolleyes:

ClockWorkOrange wrote:

health care a disaster

No it's not.

ClockWorkOrange wrote:

massive amounts of debt

I didn't realise that as a citizen of Ireland I automatically get saddled with other peoples debt. Silly me, thinking I was debt free and all.

ClockWorkOrange wrote:

recession and property collapse looming..

Jeez, I don't even need to go there.

I love the (literal) get up and go attitude that so many Irish people have. There seems to be a moronic belief that all you have to do is leave the country and automatically everything will be better. Like Conor, I think I might hang around too. Where else in the world will the government pay for my university education? When I was working towards a degree, I'm even taken out of the tax net while working my dead-end job putting myself through uni. Now I have my degree, I'm earning more here in Ireland than I would in the US or Canada. I don't drive and am paying fúck all rent for a nice pad only a couple of minutes from my place of work.

Is everything perfect? No way, but for the most part, I'm satisfied with my standard of living.

ClockWorkOrange

What a hilarious post, OK Raskolnikov i cant be bothered trawling through all of your dumb post picking out the inconsistencies..

But its clear to anyone of even very low intelligence that you have no concept of the bigger picture.. and may i point out that saying "No its not" as an argument against someone else point is the kind of thing you would hear from a 10 year old simpleton..

And the fact that you went to the trouble of looking up the inflation rates and then posting them to actually go against you argument is laughable..

You deserve to live under the current government regime, it suits you

layke

layke wrote:

I see FF supports going on about how good they made the country when in fact they really didn't do anything except join the EU and got free money, then took the credit.

I didn't exactly say that. I said the country was doing well, and I'm happy with the way things are. If FG were inpower, I'd be happy with their performance. Clearly, apart from two posters here, the fact that we have turned the country from a situation where 30,000 people left per annum under the last elected FG/Labour Government, to one where ClockWorkOrange (and perhaps ballooba) leave but into which thousands arrive, suggests something must be right.

layke wrote:

The North, yes i'll give them that but the only reason we have negotiations is because the Ra's funds got cut in the US imo forcing diplomacy. That and the fact people were getting fed up with their ****e and losing support.

While I wouldn't agree with all your point, again I would say that I am not trying to credit FF with sole responsibility for the peace process, just that it exists and I'm a lot happier with the future of this island then I was, say, in 1987.

Raskolnikov

ClockWorkOrange wrote:

What a hilarious post, OK Raskolnikov i cant be bothered trawling through all of your dumb post picking out the inconsistencies..

But its clear to anyone of even very low intelligence that you have no concept of the bigger picture.. and may i point out that saying "No its not" as an argument against someone else point is the kind of thing you would hear from a 10 year old simpleton..

I can see you doing very well in Canada with that sort of attitude mate

ClockWorkOrange wrote:

And the fact that you went to the trouble of looking up the inflation rates and then posting them to actually go against you argument is laughable..

I'm not even going to bother.

ClockWorkOrange

Raskolnikov wrote:

I can see you doing very well in Canada with that sort of attitude mate

I'm not even going to bother.

Wow what an amazing post, two in-coherent comments...You must have been in the debating society when at college right?

What a talent:D