7 reasons why we could have 5 more years

gandalf

ClockWorkOrange banned for a week for abuse.

MontgomeryClift

Raskolnikov wrote:

Canada Inflation Rate: 2.3%
Irish Inflation Rate: 4%


1.7% higher than Canada, how do we survive in this country :rolleyes:

1.7% actually is a big difference. If only we'd had 2.3% or lower for the last five years. If only we had it now.

Why doesn't Brian Cowen ever say what he intends to do to bring inflation under control? Does he refuse to acknowledge it as a problem? Is he that blinded by his salary?

Orange69

gandalf wrote:

ClockWorkOrange banned for a week for abuse.

I bet ClockWorkOrange is devastated that he/she cannot continue the debate...!!! :eek:

Raskolnikov

MontgomeryClift wrote:

Why doesn't Brian Cowen ever say what he intends to do to bring inflation under control? Does he refuse to acknowledge it as a problem? Is he that blinded by his salary?

What can he do to bring inflation under control? Economists will tell you that there are two ways to control inflation in an economy, monetary policy and fiscal policy. As you know, since we've joined the Eurozone economy we have no control over interest rates or the money supply, so short of taking us out of Europe, we can forget about using this as a mechanism for control. That realistically leaves us with fiscal policy. To achieve cuts in inflation we could increase taxation (can't see this going down too well), lower government spending (again, can't see this going down too well with the public) or reduce government borrowing (can't improve too much here, relative to the rest of Europe, our government borrows very little). Another option though would be to introduce wage controls, that would only go down like a lead balloon.

Ray777

I'm sure nobody here would disagree that the turnaround of the economy didn't occur after June 1997 or as a result of Fianna Fáil coming into power. Giving credit where it's due, FF have handled the economy well. However, they've cocked up far too many times on other fronts to deserve reelection - E-voting, PPARS, Crime, Public Transport, quality of life... the list goes on...

Bertie may be an amiable enough chap (which is enough in the eyes of so many idiots in this country), but his choice of ministers often baffles me. Cullen, Brennan, Roche, O'Donoghue, O'Dea, Martin and Dempsey are all clearly incompetent buffoons and should really be sitting on the backbenches. And I've never understood why Brian Lenihan isn't in the cabinet.

It's time that this arrogant government was punished, and given the chance to sit on the opposition benches and learn a bit of humility.

Ray777

Ray777 wrote:

I'm sure nobody here would disagree that the turnaround of the economy didn't occur after June 1997 or as a result of Fianna Fáil coming into power. Giving credit where it's due, FF have handled the economy well. However, they've cocked up far too many times on other fronts to deserve reelection - E-voting, PPARS, Crime, Public Transport, quality of life... the list goes on...

Bertie may be an amiable enough chap (which is enough in the eyes of so many idiots in this country), but his choice of ministers often baffles me. Cullen, Brennan, Roche, O'Donoghue, O'Dea, Martin and Dempsey are all clearly incompetent buffoons and should really be sitting on the backbenches. And I've never understood why Brian Lenihan isn't in the cabinet.

As someone who intends to vote FF, barring some major u-turn in policy, I find it hard to disagree with a lot of your points. I'm happy with the way things are, that's not to say they are next or near perfect or indeed (with some of the matters you mention) even tolerable. But things like transport or traffic in West Dublin, or even computer systems used in voting or in the health service, really don't affect me in my daily life. I can't pretend to be shocked by them when they frankly don't bother me. Something like the drift net issue is a lot more pertinent to me because it will reach into the homes of my friends and neighbours, but think the parties were all singing off the same hymn sheet on that one.

And I dunno if I'd be so quick to dismiss some of the peolpe you mention, like Dempsey. On the other hand Cullen and Roche...:rolleyes: . But (i) they are not my local representatives and (ii) I have no confidence in the ability of the opposition to put better candidates forward...

SeanW

The FF/PDs only care about serving themselves, the special interests, and getting reelected.

One example: The driver testing system. There are 135000 people waiting for driving tests. But, for example, in Navan, there is a 60 week (yes, that's right, 1 year and 2 months) wait for a driving test.

The driver testing system is paid for by test applicants. So, at any time in the last 9 years, Martin Cullen or anyone in the precession of idiots that have called themselves "Minister for Transport" could have sorted this out with the stroke of a pen, hiring more testers and, if needed, raising the application fee which I doubt any applicant would mind paying for a dramatically reduced waiting time.

But since there's no developer or publican to benefit, they don't care, and they'll gladly allow something like the driver testing system to collapse through sheer neglect while they pursue their real agenda.

One example of that: cafe bars. The one thing Michael McDowell came up with that might have done some good, and he got decaffinated. Why? Many FF politicians are also publicans. Also if you look at the tribunals, it's mainly FFs that were found to be dealing on the dirty, with AFAIK only one Fine Gael having been found to be corrupt, Micheal Lowry.

I've heard complaining that FG/Labour don't have new policies or anything other than Bertie-bashing.

But I'd rather give my vote to someone with no plan, than someone who's plan only involves an iterative loop of pandering to vested interests, voting themselves pay raises and getting re-elected.

MontgomeryClift

Raskolnikov wrote:

What can he do to bring inflation under control? Economists will tell you that there are two ways to control inflation in an economy, monetary policy and fiscal policy. As you know, since we've joined the Eurozone economy we have no control over interest rates or the money supply, so short of taking us out of Europe, we can forget about using this as a mechanism for control. That realistically leaves us with fiscal policy. To achieve cuts in inflation we could increase taxation (can't see this going down too well), lower government spending (again, can't see this going down too well with the public) or reduce government borrowing (can't improve too much here, relative to the rest of Europe, our government borrows very little). Another option though would be to introduce wage controls, that would only go down like a lead balloon.

You've just given us several suggestions at how to lower inflation there. With 'probable unpopularity' the only reason not to go through with at least one of them. Shouldn't a good government go through with them regardless?

Raskolnikov

MontgomeryClift wrote:

Shouldn't a good government go through with them regardless?

Absolutely, it's a shame our present government is so afraid to take the necessary action. To be fair though, it's not without reason.

• PD's with throw a hissy, could bring down the government
• FF would be perenially tagged the "tax raising party" for the next decade

Heinrich

ClockWorkOrange wrote:

and may i point out that saying "No its not" as an argument against someone else point is the kind of thing you would hear from a 10 year old simpleton..

...and the Taoiseach, and MacDowell, not forgetting Willy O'Dear among other notables!

Heinrich

Bertie may be an amiable enough chap (which is enough in the eyes of so many idiots in this country), but his choice of ministers often baffles me. are all clearly incompetent buffoons and should really be sitting on the backbenches.

..."Let me have men about me that are fat. Sleek headed men, those that sleep o' nights. Yon Cassius (Cullen, Brennan, Roche, O'Donoghue, O'Dea, Martin and Dempsey) has a lean and hungry look, such men are dangerous or words to that effect.

So long as most of the people are fooled most of the time then the wasters will remain in power.

We are being promised a spanking new Metro even before the tunnel has lights installed at the end.

The port is to be moved, the 500 new Garda recruits will one day become real Guards and MacDoubt will be vindicated.

Beaumont hospital will surely get a budget incrrease to buy a few litres of Parozone and the place will become squeaky clean.

Motorists will learn to switch off their engines when they are gridlocked and toxic emissions will fall dramatically.

Ryanair will go bust and Aer Lingus will prevail with their geriatric air hostesses.

The future is rosy. Thank you Bertie and beware of the ides of March!

OTK

OP has presented a list of reasons why FF will be re-elected. Here are some factors to support the opposite point of view.

Time for change. After a while the electorate decides that the current lot have been in power too long and are becoming complacent or arrogant.

Growing popularity of SF. sucking votes from FF

Growing popularity of greens. would be helped by more evidence of climate change, or a rise in oil prices.

Tribunal revelations. Something comes out on a CJH scale.

Sudden collapse in the housing market caused by interest rate rises and a loss of investor faith in the infinite escalator..

As it stands, I'd still bet on FF.

Hotblack Desiato

OTK wrote:

OP has presented a list of reasons why FF will be re-elected. Here are some factors to support the opposite point of view.

Time for change. After a while the electorate decides that the current lot have been in power too long and are becoming complacent or arrogant.

True but we were told this the last time out as well. The opposition need to come up with credible policies. Last time out the electorate didn't like what FG had to offer, they had zero credibility on the economy, and there's not much evidence of improvement yet. Attacking the government won't win the election.

Growing popularity of SF. sucking votes from FF

I would imagine that they're sucking many more votes from traditional Labour / DL areas than they are from FF. They're also attracting people who haven't voted before or don't usually vote (And I don't just mean the 'graveyard vote' though whether poll support will turn into real votes is debateable.
SF's economic policies gain them some votes but scare everyone else rigid

Growing popularity of greens. would be helped by more evidence of climate change, or a rise in oil prices.

We've already had a huge rise in oil prices, studies about global warming etc. and the Greens aren't really benefitting. Like FG and SF if they are seen as a risk to the economy they will not gain power

Tribunal revelations. Something comes out on a CJH scale.

People knew CJH was dirty for years, it added to his appeal if anything. The public is weary of tribunals at this stage and after 'Bertiegate' it's hard to imagine anything sticking.

Sudden collapse in the housing market caused by interest rate rises and a loss of investor faith in the infinite escalator..

Interest rates now appear to be nearing their peak and stamp duty cuts are possible in the budget, the housing market is safe until after the election at least.

As it stands, I'd still bet on FF.

Me too. The opposition still don't seem to realise it's about the economy, stupid and without credible policies they will go nowhere. Neither Kenny nor Rabbitte have great appeal to the electorate, either.

pigeonbutler

With regard to the comments about inflation: Our inflation is rising because our economy is growing. It's almost impossible to have some level of growth without inflation. In fact economists have proven that there is an inverse link between unemployment and inflation. If you try to curb inflation a lot unemployment will go up. If you're willing to accept a certain amount of inflation you can have unemployment at the fantastically low levels we have these days.

This country isn't perfect but it's better than it was. Dole queues have been replaced with queues of traffic of people going to work.

I'd hope people will vote FF for one reason: Voting FG will result in a FG/Lab government where Labour will call the shots. Pat Rabbitte (formerly of DL, the workers part, Sinn Fein the workers party, Official Sinn Fein [who were a marxist party up until DL entering Government]) will be the Minister of Finance in a Lab/FG coalition. If FF are in government (possibly with labour if numbers go as it's now looking) Rabbitte will not be in charge but instead the Social democratic side of the Labour party will be ruling the roost. Which will complement FF's progressive centre-left grassroots. Remember we haven't a strong Labour Party in Ireland because FF are the party of the working man and woman. They're not Socialist. They're social democrats (although unfortunately not so much when in with PD's) who believe in free market economics accompanied by a strong welfare state. Lots of elements need work. We're a long way from Nordic services yet. But we're getting there. Protectionism and pandering to trade Unions won't get us there though. Tough decisions to allow competitive markets while supporting those left at the bottom of the pile with excellent welfare supports, progressive taxation, free education and massive improvements in our health service (where structural changes are needed before throwing money at it will reap rewards) will bring this country to the Nordic level of quality of life. Right now we're richer on average than Sweden or Denmark but we need to even out that a bit. But that will happen gradually.

Ray777

pigeonbutler wrote:

Pat Rabbitte (formerly of DL, the workers part, Sinn Fein the workers party, Official Sinn Fein [who were a marxist party up until DL entering Government]) will be the Minister of Finance in a Lab/FG coalition.

That kind of arrogant vaccuousness really is what we've come to expect from Fianna Fáil and their supporters. A load of "reds-under-the-bed" bollocks, tbh. Have you seen any signs of Marxism from Rabbitte lately? No, me neither.

pigeonbutler wrote:

Remember we haven't a strong Labour Party in Ireland because FF are the party of the working man and woman.

Yes, Fianna Fail (the party which erects a huge hospitality tent at the Galway Races every year, where the country's leading property developers, builders and various wealthy business people can fork out a few grand for the privilege of rubbing shoulders with government ministers), led by Bertie Ahern (formerly chief blank-cheque-writer for Charles Haughey and recipient of large amounts of money from wealthy businessmen) is very clearly the party of the working man and woman. Depends how gullible you are, I suppose...

Heinrich

Heinrich wrote:

a spanking new Metro

Dublin

Heinrich wrote:

the tunnel

Dublin

Heinrich wrote:

Beaumont hospital

Dublin

Heinrich wrote:

gridlocked

Dublin

Heinrich wrote:

Ryanair will go bust and Aer Lingus will prevail with their geriatric air hostesses.

I'll live. It'll be tough at first, getting by in South Kerry with all those ugly old hostesses on flights around the place...

Ray777 wrote:

Have you seen any signs of Marxism from Rabbitte lately?

Hardly. Did his daughter go to (i) a gulag or (ii) an expensive fee paying college? He's as Marxist as the rather rich Spring family of Tralee, Co. Kerry.

I wouldn't ascribe any left wing ideaology whatsoever to Rabbitte. But I would still be apprehensive about what he might do to Capital Gains Tax or introducing some wealth tax. Keep him out, let's not even run the risk.

Ray777 wrote:

where the country's leading property developers, builders and various wealthy business people can fork out a few grand for the privilege of rubbing shoulders with government ministers

I seem to remember Ruairi Quinn trying the same thing where people could fork out big money to rub shoulders with him...on the eve of his budget.

You had to admire the cheek...

MontgomeryClift

pigeonbutler wrote:

With regard to the comments about inflation: Our inflation is rising because our economy is growing. It's almost impossible to have some level of growth without inflation.

High inflation is a result of FF/PD policy over the last ten years. Inflation is not an unavoidable side-effect of economic growth.

newby.204

After trawling through the thread, looking at the pros and cons presented by each post, and while i detest the state the country is in, the major issue facing me in the next ten years is the BOMBSHELL of a mortgage ill have to take out to get a house, that ill be paying till i die. But given the selection for government aside from SF, better the devil you know. The countries in a state, i cant wait till the implementation of the metro in dublin:D , if i ever need to go to hospital, well theres plentyof trolleys at my local supermarket!!!:) And god help me if i bring kids into this sh!thol3 for a country.!! im sure the countries great for some, but not most!!

MontgomeryClift

newby.204 wrote:

im sure the countries great for some, but not most!!

But that's the way Ireland always was. Even with mass emigration it was good for some. In the 90s it was becoming good for most, but FF and the PDs conspired to turn that trend around, and made it a country that could only be enjoyed by the rich. So even though there's full employment, the rise in the cost of living has destroyed the good of it.

Hotblack Desiato

MontgomeryClift wrote:

So even though there's full employment, the rise in the cost of living has destroyed the good of it.

So back in the "good old days" we were better off even though we had no jobs? :rolleyes:

newby.204

ninja900 wrote:

So back in the "good old days" we were better off even though we had no jobs? :rolleyes:

I dont think thats what he/she means at all, at least back then everyone knew you were poor, so were they. In todays Ireland the rich get richer, especially government consultants, and the poor well you know the rest, however its the fact that the level below the poverty line is increasing even after that bullsh!t "celtic tiger" economy!!!! And its job loss after job loss, because its too expensive to pay labour and transport costs in this country.

newby.204

newby.204 wrote:

And its job loss after job loss...

You don't remember the 80s, do you? One can't keep a straight face, surely, and dismiss the present economy as 'job loss after job loss'.

Can anyone change a 4 into 5?

http://patriotfiles.org/images/4_More_Years.jpg

shoegirl

DMC wrote:

I tend to agree with all of your points bar..

Single issue candidates/Small parties was where the protest vote went in 2002, not to Fine Gael. In fact that's where FG's vote went to (and to the PD's to prevent FF going it alone)

Its that simple. 20 seats are there if they fight for them. Votes don't swim between FF and FG.

Good opint but historically a lot of the so-called "independents" are actually disgruntled ex-FF members who frequently vote along with their alma mater. There are very few independents who are ex-FG or Labour - Michael Lowry aside.

I think the potential coalition are suffering badly from a weaker than usual Labour performances and a heavy level of a) apathy and b) sheer stupidity which almost always favours FF. The other issue which is hurting parties other than FF is demographics - by and large the core of FF's vote is the older generation. I do think however, this will end up turning against them in 15 or 20 years time, and FF will end up then where the Tories were in 1997. The big question is who is likely to fill the void in the meantime.

Its vital to recall that in the 1980s in the UK a Labour majority was absolutely inconceivable - but things change and they will.

ninty9er

newby.204 wrote:

I dont think thats what he/she means at all, at least back then everyone knew you were poor, so were they. In todays Ireland the rich get richer, especially government consultants, and the poor well you know the rest, however its the fact that the level below the poverty line is increasing even after that bullsh!t "celtic tiger" economy!!!! And its job loss after job loss, because its too expensive to pay labour and transport costs in this country.

If you think the end of that is....the poor get poorer wrong...the poor are getting richer slower, but they're still getting richer.

Dependencies are holding back a lot of families and a friend of the family who's a teacher has had kids of 4-6 tell her they have no food in the fridge but there's a slab of hash in it. Is it the fault of the government that the children's allowance given to these people is spent in the wrong place???? How do you solve it....food stamps....put the kids in care....but there aren't enough carers...well that's Bertie's problem.....recruit more carers....Bertie's spending too much on caring for neglected kids....you can't win.

I'm a member of Ógra and the simplest reason that there's 2 FF seats out of 5 in Limeirck East is 1)Because those 2 TD actually act on the notes they take at doors [as opposed to a certain nameless former FG leader who does God knows what with them] 2)the same certain nameless person has the lowest Dáil attendance record in the constituency and the FF TD are a minister and the highest Dáil attender in the constituency.

I can't possibly remember all the arguments having reasd this thread but;

Transport - €1million a day for the next number of years

Childcare - €1000 per child under 6 per year

Pensions - Manifesto promise to be met & exceeded next month

Employment - Full (only Cyprus nears us in Europe)

The one thing I despise about this country, which causes the transport cost overruns is damn public consultation. It doesn't happen anywhere else and governments have no Bord Pleanála's or the like to contend with

example: Madrid metro

foreman:"close in that hole we're moving the station 200 meters down the street"
Workers: just do it, other workers are digging the new hole that afternoon

Ireland

Taoiseach:"we're currently in negotiations with the local residents and should have an answer in 6-8 weeks"

That's the law- thats the F*ing problem

To finish:
When have you ever seen 5000 people turn up to a 1 day Fine Gael "National Conference" as they now call it or have they gone back to Ard-Fheis since the other move proved so unpopular.

Enda Kenny while a nice man by all accounts - has a cardboard cut out public speaking manner

Pat Rabbitte - I don't understand why more people don't like Pat, he's a very able politician, whatever you think of his policies...when he announces them or ideas.


FF do propaganda better than Goebells, thats why FF win elections.

irish_bob

ah the election is coming round again
it seems theyve been discussing the forthcoming election since the last one ended
politics is a funny old game , i would have said this time last year that the rainbow where favourites to win the next election
but after bertiegate , im not so sure , bertie played the irish electorate like a violin, he knew how to pluck at our mush heartstrings and it worked to a T
it says a lot about the country when you think about it, he sheds a few tears on the news and stops short of telling us that his kiten has just been run over and were ready to give him a 3rd term quicker then you can say , what about the rainbows mullingar accord

as regards the core issues that will decide voters minds this election
i think the health service is top as a reason not to vote in the goverment
however the booming economy is a reason to vote them in and the recent giveaway budget is bound to increas the goverments chances of a grand day out next summer
the public service is a bug lumbering dinasaur if innefficency which badly needs reform and is in my and many peoples view the main reason for the disastrous health service , its not the nurses and doctors who are the slackers , neither a goverment with the labour party in it or a goverment led by bertie ( best friend of the trade unions ) ahern will change that so i think that thiers not really a great choice on offer
a really interesting coalition would be fine gael and the pd,s , of course mathermatics alone prevent that from becoming a possibility
oh and i would only be happy with that unlikely coalition if fine gael got rid of the gormless enda kenny, anyway wont happen so never mind

i like pat rabbite , i would like to see him be given an opportunity to put his money where his mouth is , be it as tanasite to enda kenny or bertie ahern
of course a fianna fail - labour goverment led by bertie ahern would mean the public service would become even more bloated so that option becomes less appealing to me the more i think about it

if it is a rainbow that wins the day, that will mean a place for the greens at the cabinet table and while green issues are important to us all
in reality for most people , the hopefully soon to be built m 3 motorway is a much bigger priority to voters then the probability that thier great grandchildren will be going to work in canoes in 70 or 80 yrs time
most regular people dont pay that much heed to the greens
the bulk of thier support comes from college students and guit ridden middle class south dubliners ,

so im not really expecting much from whoever wins the race next summer
oh and i didnt mention sinn fein at all
i expect sinn fein to be in goverment though after the 2012 election
i also expect them to have moved more to the centre by then also
they are quickly realising that voters in the south of ireland are a different bunch than voters in south armagh
dont get me wrong , i dont expect them to become a smaller version of fianna fail but once a party decides to cast thier revolutionary tactics aside
establishment type politics soon follow

DoubleJoe7

People seem to forget that it was FG who introduced free Uni for all - a huge driving force for the economy. The current government toyed with the idea of bringing fees back. Also the first surplus budget of this "tiger" economy came under a FG government.

As a poster has already pointed out alot of the plus points for FF have only benefitted Dublin. Transpot in this country is a disgrace, and CIE want to raise prices because they aren't funded anywhere near the level of government spending other countries public transport systems are afforded.
Dublin is looked after but the rest of us pay for it. Example? The bus from Cork to Fermoy. Ten Euro. If I pay €2 more on my 40 minute journey I can go to Dublin. Why am I paying so much for such a short trip, relatively to what I'd pay to go to the capital?

I can't drive because I'm waiting for my test. 9 bloody months.

I'm also sick of a taoiseach who is highly ethically suspect but uses words like "whiparound" to spin his dodgy dealings and perpetuate his myth that he's a "salt of the earth" Dub. He's devious, CJ couldn't have put it better himself. He distances himself from what ever is going on and never accounts for his government. Example? The Child Stat rape Crisis was in full swing and he was off in Canada, avoiding the mess.

People say that the poor aren't getting poorer, but look at gang crime.Why is this on the rise? Because people in the poorer areas see the affluence around them and see no way in to the shares that our society affords them legally. These people are forgotten and ignored. There's a lot wrong with this country that this complacent goverment wont do anything about, because they dont care.

Hotblack Desiato

DoubleJoe7 wrote:

People seem to forget that it was FG who introduced free Uni for all - a huge driving force for the economy.

Yeah right. It was intended to be a huge driving force of middle class votes for FG/Lab in the 1997 election.
All that's happened is that the middle classes benefitted financially from free fees (which they would have just paid anyway) while the less well off are still lucky to get a decent secondary education never mind third level. What should have happened was a proper reform of the grants system, targeting additional resources at the less well off but instead the resources were given away to those who go to third level anyway. Unfortunately it is politically very difficult to reverse this bad decision, especially as the middle classes are more likely to vote than the disadvantaged.

As a poster has already pointed out alot of the plus points for FF have only benefitted Dublin.

I'd love to know what they are, exactly. FF is an anti-Dublin party.

Transpot in this country is a disgrace, and CIE want to raise prices because they aren't funded anywhere near the level of government spending other countries public transport systems are afforded.

And nowhere in this country is transport worse than it is in Dublin, yet Dublin Bus are still denied the extra buses they need - the simplest, cheapest and quickest way of making a difference to transport in Dublin.

For a capital city of well over a million people, Dublin's infrastructure is an utter disgrace.

Dublin is looked after but the rest of us pay for it.

Dublin is not looked after, and taxes paid in Dublin subsidise much of the country.

Example? The bus from Cork to Fermoy. Ten Euro. If I pay €2 more on my 40 minute journey I can go to Dublin. Why am I paying so much for such a short trip, relatively to what I'd pay to go to the capital?

How does that show that Dubliners are benefitting unfairly?
The fact that the Cork - Dublin bus is €12 is sod-all use to me when I'm stuck in a 51B trying to get through the Red Cow roundabout.

People say that the poor aren't getting poorer, but look at gang crime.Why is this on the rise? Because people in the poorer areas see the affluence around them and see no way in to the shares that our society affords them legally.

As someone who grew up in the 80s in a less well off area blighted by drugs, this is complete rubbish. Gang crime is all about drugs and the control of their supply. It involves a miniscule number of people and all around them ordinary people try to get on with their lives. Giving more educational support to these sort of areas is far more important than gang wars, but the latter is good headline material.