English League: Played-10 Review

redspider

Premier League, England: Played 10 Review

So, the English Premier League has reached its played-10 games point, more or less a quarter way through. This seasons standings compare as follows, using a points ladder format:

2006/2007            2005/2006           2004/2005
                     28 Chelsea          
                     27                  	
                     26                  							
25 ManU Chelsea      25                  25 Arsenal			
24                   24                  24				
23                   23                  23 Chelsea			
22                   22 Wigan            22 Everton			
21                   21                  21				
20 Bolton            20                  20				
19 Portsmouth        19 Charlton Spurs   19				
18 Arsenal           18 Man Utd          18 Bolton			
17 Everton           17	ManC Bolton Arse 17 Liverpool ManU		
16                   16 Liverpool        16 Newcastle			
15 Aston Villa       15 West Ham         15 Middlesboro Portsmouth		
14 Liverpool Wigan   14 Blackburn        14 Aston Villa			
13 Fulham Reading    13                  13 Tottenham			
12 Blackb ManC Spurs 12 Newcastle Boro   12 Charlton			
11 Middlesboro       11                  11 ManC			
10                   10                  10				
 9                    9	Fulham A.Villa    9 Birmingham			
 8 Newcastle West Ham 8 West Brom         8 C.Palace Fulham West Brom	
 7                    7 Portsmth Everton  7				
 6 Sheff Utd Watford  6 Birmingham        6 Blackburn Norwich Southampton	
 5 Charlton           5 Sunderland							

Whats first of note is that Chelsea are behind last year and this season have a 'companion' in the shape of Man Utd.

Arsenal are again this season off the pace, as are Liverpool. This is not new for Liverpool though. Liverpool are 11 points behind the lead which is enough to be considered out of the race. But they can certainly mount a challenge for 2nd or 3rd place but only if they put in a good run. They did that last season but it remains to be seen if they can repeat that feat this year.

Bolton, Portsmouth and Everton are the 'contenders' or is it a case of the also-rans. Last season it was Wigan, Spurs and Charlton, with Spurs just being pipped for 4th place. There is a chance that the big-4 hegemony will be broken but its only an outside chance.

With usually 3 of the bottom-6 at this stage ending up relegated, things do not look good for the biggish clubs of Boro, West Ham and Newcastle, all of which have the capability to survive. Things are grimmer for Sheff Utd, Watford and Charlton though.

The change in form between this season and last is as follows:

Portsmouth +12
Everton    +10
Man Utd     +7
Aston Villa +6
Fulham      +4
Bolton      +3
Arsenal     +1
Middlesboro -1
Blackburn   -2
Liverpool   -2
Chelsea     -3
Newcastle   -4
Man C       -5
Tottenham   -7
West Ham    -7
Wigan       -8
Charlton   -14

The fans of the clubs at the top will feel that there has been a step change in improvement, while those at the lower end will feel a step change disimprovement. For the likes of Chelsea its hard to improve on near-invincibility. But Man U have improved on last season by an appreciable amount.

Newcastle didnt have a good start last season (12 pts) but have had a worse start this season and are down in the mix for relegation. Are we going to see another Leeds Utd-esque fall from grace? Only time will tell.

My prediction is still:

1. Chelsea
2. Man Utd
3. Arsenal
4. Liverpool


Redspider

Tusky

I havent lost faith in Liverpool being contenders, its unlikely, but not impossible.

Man Utd 11 28
Chelsea 11 25
Bolton 11 20
Portsmouth 11 19
Arsenal 10 18
Aston Villa 11 18
Everton 11 17
Liverpool 11 17

8 points off Chelsea with plenty of games to play. It obviously means going on a VERY good run and most likely having to beat Arsenal, Chelsea & Man UTD.

The main reason for my optimism is the run Liverpool have in the coming weeks.

-Arsenal
-Middlesbrough
-Manchester City
-Portsmouth
-Wigan Athletic
-Fulham
-Charlton Athletic
-Watford

ALOT of points can be picked up during this period. Also, when you look at the run they have towards the end of the season...

-Reading
-Middlesbrough
-Manchester City
-Wigan Athletic
-Portsmouth
-Fulham
-Charlton Athletic
END

Not saying its going to happen, just saying that I havent given up hope! Liverpool have lost against Bolton, Everton, Chelsea & Man Utd away. Bad results but possibly some of the hardest games of the season, now behind them.

Heres hoping!

Jimboo_Jones

pffft - you forgot to mention that the mighty Forest are 7 points clear






.... in the third divison

mike65

Prem gravity is rarely beaten and the likes of Portsmouth, Bolton and Everton will feel its effects kick in gradually over the winter. It already happening at Reading and I think Man Utd will find points a bit harder to come by in the next few months. With Chelsea and Arsenal stuttering a little Liverpool will have a bit of hope in closing the gap (bearing in mind the Arse play host to the Reds next Sunday).

I don't think to usual top 4 will be broken this season - its just a question of the order and points gap.

Mike.

redspider

Tusky wrote:

I havent lost faith in Liverpool being contenders, its unlikely, but not impossible. 8 points off Chelsea with plenty of games to play. It obviously means going on a VERY good run and most likely having to beat Arsenal, Chelsea & Man UTD. ... just saying that I havent given up hope!

True, one could take Chelsea as being the barometer to catch and in that sense, 8 pts is catchable. Also, by the end of this week, Liverpool will have played the three most difficult matches of the season, away to Chelsea, away to Man Utd and away to Arsenal, out of a mere 12 games. That gives us more leeway as our current position is deflated more than the average. I dont think any other team has played those matches.

However, I'm of the opinion that we will suffer more dropped points in the 'easy' games, such as the Blackburn's, the Bolton's, etc, etc. I think our form in those games suggests a 3rd or 4th, given what Arsenal are doing. Of course I could hope for more, but my neutral analysis is indicating to me that its a 3rd/4th season. Liverpool may have had a few wins recently, but I dont see strong evidence of a title-contending team.

redspider

redspider

mike65 wrote:

Prem gravity is rarely beaten and the likes of Portsmouth, Bolton and Everton will feel its effects kick in gradually over the winter. It already happening at Reading and I think Man Utd will find points a bit harder to come by in the next few months. With Chelsea and Arsenal stuttering a little Liverpool will have a bit of hope in closing the gap (bearing in mind the Arse play host to the Reds next Sunday).

I don't think to usual top 4 will be broken this season - its just a question of the order and points gap.

Yeah, I agree that those outside the big-4 will drift down the table as the season progresses. I still dont think that Liverpool can catch up, notwithstanding the factors in the reply above. Its football, anything can happen, but, indications are ..... etc.

What do you think the order will be then?

Redspider

redspider

Jimboo_Jones wrote:

pffft - you forgot to mention that the mighty Forest are 7 points clear ... in the third divison

I did notice them alright - I do glance at the lower tables every month or so!. Will this be a sign of Forest on a march back to the top flight? Its still a long way up though.

I was also reminded of Forest recently with the 20-years discussion about Alex Ferguson and who is/was the best manager, etc. I would put Brian Clough above Ferguson for what he did at Nottm Forest, with the two European Cups, wasnt it (knocking Liverpool out in one I recall). He achieved a lot with little, although I dont know the ins and outs of the finances at Forest at the time, maybe you do? I remember they signed Trevor Francis for 1m at the time, which was a record, so they werent short on money, at least for a time. Do you know where that money came from (was it from a benefactor/investor) and what happened with their finances? ie: was finance a major factor in their success and when it went was it a major factor in their downfall. I think I remember that in more recent times (1990's) that there were some financial shenanigans when Frank Clark was there (no implication meant) which took the club further down.

Redspider

bucks73

Cant see Liverpool challenging. Why should they? Havent shown the slightest bit of form this season and especially away from home they have been very poor. Also as redspider says they will probable drop points in games where they should not.

Arsenals weaknesses have been shown up recently in games where they cant break down a packed defence. Also think they are still prone to the more physical teams.

Uniteds tests will come in the games against Chelsea and then Arsenal and Liverpool away. So far they have despatched of the lower teams with a great deal of ease and long may it continue. If it means sacrificing the CL then so be it.

Chelsea will be hard to beat but a lot of people seem to think that they have not got going yet. IMO they will not get the fluid football of 2 seasons ago back while they keep playing 4 central midfielders. They have lost their width, are now playing Robben up front and have a 30 million player who has struggled to find any kind of form. They are still very hard to beat, will compete to the end and will score goals (though not as many) but I think they are going to lose a few more games and will concentrate on the CL giving United a very good chance.

wheres me jumpa

Its amazing how things have changed. 11 points behind at this stage 5 or 6 years ago was not impossible. But due to the consistency of Chelsea it is now a huge gap. Even so I wouldnt write the Pool off yet. United, Arsenal and Chelsea will drop points. The key being how many Chelsea drop.

The early season adrenalin seems to be dying out and normality is slowly being restored to the table. The big surprises for me have been Villa and Newcastle. Ten games in and Newcastle are showing no signs of moving out of a relagation fight. Villa are showing with the right manager you can get so much out of an average set of players.

Jivin Turkey

Liverpool are in a very similar scenario to the one they were in last year, and similarly to last year they have put a few wins together and now have quite a lot of "winnable" games coming up.

When it comes down to it it will be up to how they perform against Arsenal, United and Chelsea to see where they will finish as I think they will close the gap on United before Christmas given their games coming up. They took very few points from these games last year and on the flip side it meant that their rivals took those points instead.

The title is out of their reach I feel (already) but then I didn't really think that they could win it before the season started. If Kuyt (who looks the real deal) and Crouch are given more game time together, and the defence begins to show the form they had last year, there is no reason as to why Liverpool couldn't aim for second.

Villain

I'm very pleased with my side at the minute, Martin O'Neill has got Aston Villa in a good position going on the squad he has. We still have drawn way too many games but only one loss in 11 is good by anyones standards. It will be interesting to see if he spends big in January or waits until the summer to splash the new cash Lerner is giving the club.

I would be happy with a Uefa Cup spot and I think that is possible if we escape major injuries and get one or even two quality players in January.

As for the rest of the league, well Liverpool have no chance of winning it now, I'm sure they will finish top 4 but not top 2. Man Utd are going push Chelsea hard if they can keep Saha and Rooney fit, if they were to add Hargreaves to the squad or a simalar quality defensive Midfielder they may well win it. I reckon the Gunners will finish top 4 too but won't push Chelsea or Utd. Sheff Utd, Watford and Boro are going own IMO.

jank

One has to remember that Arsenal have a game in hand over all others in the top half of the table. They win that and they are up to 3rd and just 4 points behind Chelsea.

Arsenal have improved alot IMO over last year but their weakness this time round has more to do with taking their chances and scoring goals rather then being out muscled. They have droped points in 3 draws and 2 loses and looking back at them Arsenal could have won them all but of course this is football! One or 2 extra wins there and Arsenal would be right in the thick of it. 3 times at home they went behind, 3 times they came back to equalise, 3 times they dominated all facets of the game but the scoreboard

The midfielders have to start scoring goals, something they struggled to do last year. Cesc, Helb and Rosikcy are key to this IMO. I would also like to see "The beast" come into the team more. He would added alot of steel to the midfield. Just a pity he is injured at the moment.

Liverpool are well liverpool. Always a false dawn.

Chelsea will be the team to beat and it looks like United have built up quite a nice head of steam. If it lasts, all well and good but they have a thin squad and a few bad results could see confidence plumet.

Should be one of the more open title race in seasons. Things will be much clearer comes Xmas time.

ziggy

This post has been deleted.

Raskolnikov

ziggy67 wrote:

I think Arsenal are doing quite well considering they have lost Reyes, Pires & Bergkamp. I thought they would struggle in the league even more than last year but they are going well.

You've hit the nail on the head there. I think Hleb, Van Persie and Rosicky have yet to step up the mark yet. Henry too for that matter. Sad to see that Reyes - Baptista swap deal was permanent, I think if Reyes had actually bothered, he could have been an Arsenal great.

redspider

jank wrote:

One has to remember that Arsenal have a game in hand over all others in the top half of the table.

Arsenal have improved alot IMO over last year

Its the Played-10 review, as the table above is the points that each team have gained after their first 10 games, including Arsenal and Wigan, so Arsenal in that table dont have a game in hand. This is an equalised way of looking at it.

I wouldnt agree that Arsenal have improved a lot compared with last season. Stats such as these aren't 100% reflective as a team's set of fixtures cannot be equal with another, however, as a rough guide, it would seem that Arsenal are similar to that of last season. I think they will be better and wont be fghting for 4th/5th, but will be in the 3rd/4th battle.

Villa are better than last but are roughly the same as they were in 2004/05 so I wouldnt get over-excited if I was a Villa fan. I think Villa, like Spurs, are one of those clubs that could break into the top-4 at some point, and from an interest point of view I would welcome that (as long as its not at the expense of Liverpool!) ;-) .....

More will be revealed by the 20-game stage ....

Redspider

Jimboo_Jones

redspider wrote:

I did notice them alright - I do glance at the lower tables every month or so!. Will this be a sign of Forest on a march back to the top flight? Its still a long way up though.

I was also reminded of Forest recently with the 20-years discussion about Alex Ferguson and who is/was the best manager, etc. I would put Brian Clough above Ferguson for what he did at Nottm Forest, with the two European Cups, wasnt it (knocking Liverpool out in one I recall). He achieved a lot with little, although I dont know the ins and outs of the finances at Forest at the time, maybe you do? I remember they signed Trevor Francis for 1m at the time, which was a record, so they werent short on money, at least for a time. Do you know where that money came from (was it from a benefactor/investor) and what happened with their finances? ie: was finance a major factor in their success and when it went was it a major factor in their downfall. I think I remember that in more recent times (1990's) that there were some financial shenanigans when Frank Clark was there (no implication meant) which took the club further down.

Redspider

They are doing OK now. We were in real serious trouble a few years ago though, due mainly to a certain Mr David Pratt blowing huge sums of money on crap players only to get us 11th in the first division. (and this because the board decided to go public and sell the company to someone with no interest in Forest)

I have to admit I am unsure how we managed to play a million for Trevor Francis, but I seem to remember that after we had paid a mil it soon became common place. We never where that rich, I seem to remember BC spent the cash of European cups building a stand

I also thought of repling to to Ferguson thread, but I am sure that there are many supporters of many clubs who feel that their past or present managers are 'the best' .. its what being a supporter is all about, and to be honest, I still feel loss at BC not being here anymore

Yes it will be a while before (if indeed ever) that we are back in the top flight, and it really pains me, I want to see all the great players at the city ground, hopefully we will get promotion this season and step a little closer to that goal.

redspider

Jimboo_Jones wrote:

They are doing OK now. We were in real serious trouble a few years ago though, due mainly to a certain Mr David Pratt blowing huge sums of money on crap players only to get us 11th in the first division. (and this because the board decided to go public and sell the company to someone with no interest in Forest)

I have to admit I am unsure how we managed to play a million for Trevor Francis, but I seem to remember that after we had paid a mil it soon became common place. We never where that rich, I seem to remember BC spent the cash of European cups building a stand

I also thought of repling to to Ferguson thread, but I am sure that there are many supporters of many clubs who feel that their past or present managers are 'the best' .. its what being a supporter is all about, and to be honest, I still feel loss at BC not being here anymore

Yes it will be a while before (if indeed ever) that we are back in the top flight, and it really pains me, I want to see all the great players at the city ground, hopefully we will get promotion this season and step a little closer to that goal.

Thanks for that info. Glad to hear that the finances are in better shape.

In terms of BC, which could stand for Before Clough ;-) .... I think many fans if forced to vote neutral would gve him the vote. Sure he may have been a pain if you were caught on the wrong side of him, but his approach worked in terms of results, if not perhaps style and panache. Amazing really.

In terms of getting back up, step by step. Whether any club can compete with the pedigree clubs of Liverpool, Arsenal and Man U and the cash-driven Chelsea is another story, but if Bolton is your benchmark for Forest, then clearly that is achievable.

Enjoy your promotion season .....

Redspider