2007 Golf Season

Glenbhoy

Okay, will make a stab at this for a while. I tend to hit form for a while in my golf betting, the nature of it being that the one good month hopefully covers the eleven crap ones!
My main strategy is trading on betfair so all prices quoted will be betfair prices.

Starting off with a very tricky one here in the HSBC, I had Howell in this last year, but only after day 1, still paid 14/1 so not too bad. I really want to lay the Tiger, but at 2.8, I just can't - I got too really bad burnings during the summer, although in the long run, the man has been my biggest saviour. I think, he's very beatable here, 10 of the top 20 in the world, he's had a 5 week lay off, flies to China, different greens etc, but I just can't take him on.
Normally, I'll pick 3/4 guys at varying prices, but this week will probably come down to Furyk, Donald, Tiger, with a few others such as Harrington, Howell, Stenson, Casey and Poults who may also go well. Therefore my bet is therefore going to be limited to a simple 50pts on Donald at 17, this will be traded at 7, thus giving me a free bet at 10 - (that's my own trading strategy, pick a number and hope to get a free bet on the tournament, go all green basically - i know there are other possibilities but I don't have the time to trade full time), in addition I'll have 10pts on Zhang at 390, again hoping to trade, but that'll be a difficult one (hey I just like a longshot too).

So there we go:
Bank €500
Bets Donald €50 at 17, Zhang €10 at 390.

Glenbhoy

Quick update:
Zhang bet not taken,
Donald was backed at 17 and traded again at 8.6 - thus a free bet at 8.4, happy enough with that, as he's about 18 again and not an overly likely winner from his current position. Woods had a very average start and is now trading at 6, if only I had the balls to go after him.

Bank:
Starting - 500
Current - 500
Bets 1.

Glenbhoy

At the risk of after timing, I did a €20 on Yang yesterday at 8.8 to have an interest obviously!
Luckily he held on from the rampaging Tiger.

2006-11-12
07:47 2006-11-11
17:28 Group B HSBC Champions / Winner / Y.E. Yang
Back 20.00 8.80 Won 156.00

Overall:
Profit on tournament: €161

New Bank: €661.

Glenbhoy

Dunlop
Woods is a big big price at 2.2, but I'm going to pass again. My pick is Howell on his last start of the season, he's been in poor enough form, but he's the type who can win from nowhere as we say earlier this year. He's a good price at 30ish and hopefully this can be traded.
Hong Kong
Trappy event and there wouldn't be many winners who would be a surprise. My selections are, Jaidee as he tends to go well both here and in SE Asia, 50 is a more than fair price for Thongchai. My other selection is an englishman who almost won in China last year, Oliver Wilson - odds of approx 210 reflect his chances, so this is a longshot.
Australian
Scott is fav here, my preference however is for Ogilvy at 15, he has moved to a new level this year and like Scott has never won in Oz, he apparently used the Tour championship to warm up for the ozzie tour, so he's keen - he represents much better value than the likes of Scott and Allenby. My other selection here is Lonard, a two time winner in this event, the early 38 I got has gone and he's now trading at 30.

Bank: €661
Selections:
Dunlop: Howell €35 @ 30
Hong Kong: Wilson 15 @ 210, Jaidee 20 @ 50
Australia: Ogilvy 30 @ 15, Lonard 20 @ 38.

New Bank: €541

Glenbhoy

Dunlop
Woods is a big big price at 2.2, but I'm going to pass again. My pick is Howell on his last start of the season, he's been in poor enough form, but he's the type who can win from nowhere as we say earlier this year. He's a good price at 30ish and hopefully this can be traded.
Hong Kong
Trappy event and there wouldn't be many winners who would be a surprise. My selections are, Jaidee as he tends to go well both here and in SE Asia, 50 is a more than fair price for Thongchai. My other selection is an englishman who almost won in China last year, Oliver Wilson - odds of approx 210 reflect his chances, so this is a longshot.
Australian
Scott is fav here, my preference however is for Ogilvy at 15, he has moved to a new level this year and like Scott has never won in Oz, he apparently used the Tour championship to warm up for the ozzie tour, so he's keen - he represents much better value than the likes of Scott and Allenby. My other selection here is Lonard, a two time winner in this event, the early 38 I got has gone and he's now trading at 30.

Bank: €661
Selections:
Dunlop: Howell €35 @ 30
Hong Kong: Wilson 15 @ 210, Jaidee 20 @ 50
Australia: Ogilvy 30 @ 15, Lonard 20 @ 38.

New Bank: €541

Glenbhoy

Glenbhoy wrote:

Dunlop
Bank: €661
Selections:
Dunlop: Howell €35 @ 30
Hong Kong: Wilson 15 @ 210, Jaidee 20 @ 50
Australia: Ogilvy 30 @ 15, Lonard 20 @ 38.

New Bank: €541

Update:
Howell money lost.
Wilson money lost.
Jaidee laid at 17 for 20
Lonard laid at 12 for 20
Ogilvy - still running, i still reckon he has a chance but i'll try and lay out at about 4.

Bank:
€581.

Glenbhoy

Bank: €661
Selections:
Dunlop: Howell €35 @ 30
Hong Kong: Wilson 15 @ 210, Jaidee 20 @ 50
Australia: Ogilvy 30 @ 15, Lonard 20 @ 38.

New Bank: €541

Howell lost -€35
Wilson lost -€15
Jaidee 3rd traded for a no win, no loss.
Lonard lost, but traded for no, win no loss.
Ogilvy 2nd and traded for no win, no loss. (would probably have traded him into a profit position, but was away for the weekend and couldn't keep track of events).
Overall loss on the week of €50.
New Bank: €611.

Glenbhoy

Okay, will try a wee bit on Ogilvy again at 9.0 for the Grand Slam of Golf, the aim is to trade, but staying up all night long could be tough on a Tuesday and Wednesday night.
Bet:
40 pts at 9.0

Glenbhoy

Australian Masters:
Baddeley, short course, needs a good putter (and good accuracy, but hey can't have everything!), thus I'm willing to give Badds a go, indeed, i'm even willing to give Nathan Green a run too, again based on his prowess with the flat stick.

Bets for the week:
Baddeley €35 at 25
Green €15 at 32
Chopra €15 at 65
Grand Slam:
Olgivy €40 at 9.

New Bank:
€506 (nearly back where I started from).

Pighead

Gavin Coles played brilliantly last week and was very unfortunate to find a bunker at the 17th and thus rob himself a place ina playoff to win the Australian Open. Hes been in good form all season and hopefully he can continue it this weekend.
Pigheads gonna stick a Tenner E/w on him @49/1(Betfair)

Good Luck with your picks Glenbhoy.

10 Points E/W: Gavin Coles to win Mastercard Masters@49/1
20 Points For Coles to Have a top 10 finish@4/1
5 Points E/W Michael Campbell@ 22/1

Glenbhoy

Bets for the week:
Baddeley €35 at 25
Green €15 at 32
Chopra €15 at 65
Grand Slam:
Olgivy €40 at 9.

New Bank:
€506 (nearly back where I started from).

Being the chicken siht I am, I traded Ogilvy at 5.0 (could have traded at 3.0 if I'd left it).
Also Casio World Open: Backed D Maruyama at 29.0 for €15.

New Bank: €531.

Good luck too pighead, Campbo could go well, dunno about Coles!

Glenbhoy

Okay, didn't bother trading Baddeley last week even though he got to about 8.0 at some stage - these damned antipedeon's and they're bloody time differences!!
Anyway, taking it easy this week (don't have setanta, can't get setanta - muppet small time cable operators) so can't see nedbank, nor indeed any us tour golf next year bar the majors (maybe a blessing in disguise!).

Nedbank:
Immelman backed 25 @ 11.5 - no real reason bar that he represents a bit of value in a small field, he safran obviously and has had a good season. Els at 5.0 has yet to convince me that's he's back - but he is a multiple winner of this event. Garcia at 8ish is another previous winner (and my favourite golfer, even if he can be expensive to follow), but his putting is just too suspect. Furyk has a big chance too, but the other value bet in the field imo is Stenson - he can be backed at circa 20 and could be perfect for trading - i might just revise my opinion on having the one bet only on this one, hmmm.

NZ Open:
Desperate affair, Campbo at circa 12.0 might be the answer, Green at the same price is unlikely to be (i still have nightmares about the time I backed him 3 yrs ago in holland at 70 odd - he led by 3 going into day 4, after 4 holes he trailed - a choker of the highest order). Personally, I couldn't be bothered getting involved in this, but I decided to go with a little patriotism and back Peter Lawrie, small stakes at 100 odd. No particular reason, just that if the former Henry Cotton winner is ever going to win, this will be the type of event he'll win first. The price isn't bad, but it does reflect his chances. My bet €7 @ 95.

Start Bank: €531
Bets
Immelman 25 @ 11.5
Stenson - to be decided
Lawrie 7 @ 95
New Bank: €499 (possibly minus Stenson).

Pighead

2005 Jim Furyk
2004 Retief Goosen
2003 Sergio Garcia
2002 Ernie Els
2001 Sergio Garcia
2000 Ernie Els
1999 Ernie Els
1998 Nick Price
1997 Nick Price

6 of the past 9 winners have been South African so I reckon Paddy Powers offer of Evens for a South African to win it is a pretty good bet. Immelmann Goosen and Els represents a pretty strong home challenge.

Goosen won this 2 years ago and I reckon he'll do well again this week. At 5/1 he's much better value than Els(4/1) who as Glenbhoy rightly pointed out hasn't been firing on all cylinders this year.

50 Points @Evens: Winner of Nedbank to Be S. African.
10 Points E/W @ 5/1 Goosen to win Nedbank.

Glenbhoy

That SA to win bet doesn't look bad alright, and Goosen is def a better bet than Els - good luck.
I took Stenson too at 22, hope to trade at about 7/8 if he starts off well - in such a small field, any sort of a move up the leaderboard should see dramatic moves in price.
Just checking the NZ Open betting - somebody has just backed P Lawrie to win at 30/1, he's played one hole and parred it I know he was tipped by sportinglife too, but that's just getting ridiculous for a player who was 100/1 everywhere pre-tournament - but then maybe they're the famous on-course spotters and have just seen his albatross drop in on the 2nd!!

Pighead

Harringtons gone of like the clappers! -5 after ten holes (Inc 4 birdies in a row). Hes currently 3 head of Furyk and Howell with a few more(inc Goosen) back at -1. 9-4 in running with Paddy Powers.

Hate to say this but hopefully Harry will finish with a couple of bogeys!

Pighead

Glenbhoy wrote:

I took Stenson too at 22, hope to trade at about 7/8 if he starts off well - in such a small field, any sort of a move up the leaderboard should see dramatic moves in price.

Stenson currently leading at -5 and is currently 4/1 with Paddys. Excellent stuff Glenbhoy!

Pigheads bets looking ok too with Goosen lying 3rd on -3 with 3 to play. Els has had a disastrous end to his round and has dropped 3 shots in 2 holes to fall back to -1. Harrington has also dropped a couple and also lies on -3

Glenbhoy

Pighead wrote:

Harringtons gone of like the clappers!Hate to say this but hopefully Harry will finish with a couple of bogeys!

You're not being unpatriotic, just being selfish - seriously though, it'd be a bit **** if himself or Clarkey ever got their act together in a major and you didn't have them backed. I like Harry for Masters myself, he made a complete ****e of it last year with his refusal to putt out when bad light stopped play on the 7th in rnd 3, he was -3 then i think, double bogeyed (or bogeyed) a 6 ft birdie putt the following morning!!
Anyway, Furyk the big danger here, Stenson could do anything (but he's not a choker), I haven't laid him yet, undecided as to whether to or not (greed can sometimes be good). Goose very definite chance here too, but Howell at 10/1 is the stand out price now, I reckon.

Glenbhoy

Start Bank: €531
Bets
Immelman 25 @ 11.5
Stenson - to be decided
Lawrie 7 @ 95
New Bank: €499

Backed and laid Stenson last week. Here are my downhearted attempts for this week as we head negative for the first time.

Dunhill - desperate tournament, Els 2/1 - my arse, couldn't be backed at this price. I've no strong views on this, threw €15 on Lima at 65, simply because he is better than most of the muck here. Also backed Fisher at 100/1 with pp ew, cos Chapman reckons he'll be a good thing at some stage.
Aussie PGA - Scott and Olgivy stand out as being worthy favs - accordingly I've backed each in ew doubles with my WGC World Cup selections USA and Argentina. Don't know much about the tournament to be honest, but 6/1 and 9/1 are reasonable prices.
WGC - Surprised Desmond couldn't get his mate Tiger to play here (maybe he's off playing with his new friend Fedex). As is, i like the look of the US team, Cink is playing well and Henry is pretty steady too, obviously Jim and Tiger would be hard to beat (although they were frequently poor in Ryder), 7/1 is a good price. The most interesting team is Argentina, Romero and Cabrera, Cabrera can do anything, Romero is one of the hottest prospects on the euro tour and may just be destined for great things - they should be up for it (which is always important in these events) and they'll be taking my money. 10/1 with PP, haven't backed them yet on betfair, but I will.

Bets:
€50 USA at 8.6 WGC
€40 Argentina at 11? WGC
€15 Lima at 65 Dunhill

Others:
Cross doubles US, ARG, Scott and Olgilvy in Aus PGA
Spread bet on Coles in Aus PGA
EW on Fisher in Dunhill

Glenbhoy

Last week of 2006 golf season coming up (I think, surely to God them asians and south africans won't still be playing next weekend!!).
Anyway, last week went pretty well, cleared €150 by virtue of backing Argentina at 15.5 and then laying them at 1.9 when they led by 4 midway through round 3, not often you get out at the best price, but I suppose it helps when you're watching it.
Bank now back to €640 and given the week that's in it, I think it's time for Tiger to give me back some of my losses laying him during the summer. I think Tiger will win his own tournament and Casey at 16/1 represents decent value to challenge but I'm going with Tiger only this week.
In SA I'm taking Els to break his duck at 9/2 with PP, but being greedy, I'm doubling up with Tiger at 11/10.
In asia, one speculative trade on betfair - I'm putting a small stake on at probably 80.0 on Thammanoon.

Start Bank:
€640
Bets - Woods 150 @ 2.46
Thammanoon 10 @ 80?
Double - Woods 11/10 and Els 9/2 - €40.
Closing Bank: €440

Glenbhoy

Start Bank:
€640
Bets - Woods 150 @ 2.46 - profit €150
Thammanoon 10 @ 80?:mad:
Double - Woods 11/10 and Els 9/2 - €40. - profit €422
Closing Bank: €1212

Nice weekend at the office, Els and Tiger came good - overall after doing a bit of trading on Tiger (I had to protect the double bet, so took a bit of a loss there by trading Tiger at 1.3), overall profit for the weekend was €562. Been a decent enough start to this from a starting bank in Nov of €500, time for a break now for a few weeks - must buy that damn Elliot's golf form again, and who knows, for a new year resolution I'm going to read the damn thing!!
The profit's not great I know, but tis only a bit of craic, and tbh, I rarely get a chance to actually watch too much golf and trade in running, if you're serious, you have to put in the time, for me sure it'll buy a few presents and maybe a pint or two.
Anyway merry christmas all.

to be continued.....

Pighead

Great stuff Glenbhoy, getting 1 winner is hard enough but 2 is excellent. Els finally won a tournament this year, apparently hes won at least 1 every year since 91.

Profitable few months for you. Nothing at all wrong with doubling your bank. Well done again.

Glenbhoy

And with the new year comes PGA Tour 2007!!
For this years season opener, we're back in Hawaii where Appleby has won this tournament 3 yrs running (in fact as this tournament is restricted to winners in the previous year, winning this is how he qualified).
No Woods, Mickelson or Els for this one, Furyk the obvious and deserving fav, but my money is going on the 2nd fav, he's never won, but has been in the top 10 on every appearance with I think 6 top 4's out of his last 8 appearances here. Vijay did not have a great season last year, but is well worth a punt here at 10.0 on betfair or an easily available 8/1 in the shops, with a limited field he must be an ew steal?
I will also hazard a few euro on JB Holmes and JJ Henry at bigger prices, JJ should be circa 60 and JB circa 100.

Bets:
Singh 35 @ 10.0
JJ Henry 15 @ 60.0
JB Holmes 10 @ 95.0

Pighead

David Toms @25/1 (34.0 on Betfair)is decent Each Way value for me. He finished 13th here last year and 8th the year before. He finished last season strongly with a top 10 finish in the final tournament of the year (Target World Challenge). He had a poor enough season last year by his standards but still managed 13 top 25 finishes out of 22 (Including 1 1st 1 2nd and 1 3rd)

Vijay Singh @ 8/1: Vijay came 2nd here last year and only lost after a playoff. He finished last season in great form posting 2 top 10 finishes in his final 3 tournaments. Vijay should give us a run for our money

Brett Weiterech @50/1: Weitterech is very inconsistent but when he gets it right he's a very good player. He finished 2nd in the Chrysler and memorial tournaments last season and finished a very creditable 6th in the American Express Championships. Low stakes obviously and hopefully he has one of his good weeks.

Verdict:
20 Points E/W: Vijay Singh@8/1
10 Points E/W: David Toms@ 25/1
5 Points E/W: Brett Weietrech@ 50/1

(Each Way=1/4 for top 4)

fade2black

I've backed Appleby for the win just because of his course record.

Pighead

Decent first day with Singh and Weiterech holding a share of the lead at -4, Toms had a poor round though and lies 6 of the pace on +2. He looks out of it at even at this early stage unless he can produce something special tonight.

All the big boys are withing striking distance(Furyk -2, Donald -1 and Appleby Level) but hopefully Vijay can shoot low tonight.

Pighead

Singh maintains a narrow lead after shooting a second succesive 69, he lies 1 shot ahead of Immelman who shot a -5 68. Furyk(+1) and Appleby(-1) needed big rounds but didn't get them and both look out of it at the halfway stage.

Glenbhoys pick JB Holmes had arguably the round of the day grabbing 5 birdies on the back 9 to zoom up the leaderboard into a tie for 4th. Good stuff Glenbhoy!

Pigheads man Weitterech demonstrated his inconsistency with an inglorious 79! This after a very good 69 on the opening day. Poor old Brett looks doomed down in 21st place. Toms had a -1 round of 70 which wasn't nearly good enough, each time he got a birdie he'd ruin it by bogeying the next. He lies in 16th.

Looks to be a 2 horse race between Singh and Immelman now, although maybe Adam Scott on -4 might able to make inroads on the 2 at the top.

Glenbhoy

Pighead wrote:

Glenbhoys pick JB Holmes had arguably the round of the day grabbing 5 birdies on the back 9 to zoom up the leaderboard into a tie for 4th. Good stuff Glenbhoy!

Expect a Wetterich like performance from JB today!! Seriously, I'd love JB to do the biz at this stage, but as you say it's hard to see past Immelman and Vij. I'm still happy with Vij, who I've now laid for my total golf stake of the week 60 at evs, so it's a no lose week for me regardless. A danger could be Love, who has won here twice in the past I think.

Pighead

Famous last words and all that but Vijay looks home and housed after the 3rd round. He lies on -11, 3 shots ahead of Scott and Immelman. Ropey enough start from the big man with 2 bogeys in his opening 7 holes but 4 birdies after that steadied the ship and sent him clear. Bookies make him 1/3 fav now.

Weitterech and Toms both had average days with Even and -1 rounds respectively. Toms may yet sneak a top 10 finish as he lies just 2 shots behind Appleby in 10th.

Pighead

Pighead wrote:

Verdict:
20 Points E/W: Vijay Singh@8/1:)
10 Points E/W: David Toms@ 25/1:(
5 Points E/W: Brett Weietrech@ 50/1

(Each Way=1/4 for top 4)

Vijay wins by 2 from Adam Scott. Scott made a fight of it and finished with a very good 69 but Vijays 70 was enough to see him through. Toms almost grabbed some each way money with the best round of the day(-6) but ended up in 8th place. His poor start cost him dear. Weiterech finished in 22nd after a level par final round. Good start to the golfing year.

Well done Glenbhoy on your 3 picks, all of them finishing in the top 10(Holmes in 4th). Hopefully you made a nice profit.

Points Staked:70
Points Returned: 240
Profit: 170

Glenbhoy

Yeah, good start to the year alright Pighead, I cleared a tidy €400, so can't complain (although of i was tempted to throw €50 more on Vij just before the tournament kicked off - but shouldn't moan).
Very different tournament this week, suits the accurate tee to green and hot putter, doesn't rule out the big hitters, but brings in more of the field.
For me, Donald at 18.0 on betfair, represents a bit of value - trading wise anyway.
Love finished well last week and has done well here in the past so the 27.0 available on betfair shall also be taken, my final pick is Baddeley, he has also done well in the past here (and he's a much improved player now) and this is the type of course where he will always have a chance - i'd disregard last weeks poor showing as the course would never suit him. At odds of 130.0 on betfair, he's worth a small stakes punt.


Joburg Open
Who cares, crappy field, schwartzel is 5/1 fav which is a ridiculous price for him. My strategy is to put 4 euro on various players who I have heard of before at odds of about 200 - 500 on betfair and then trade them if they threaten.
All will be revealed tomorrow evening!!

Royal Tournament - haven't looked at yet, but don't anticipate too much interest in it from a betting p.o.v.

Summary:
Sony Open:
Love 20 @ 27.0
Donald 30 @ 18.0
Baddeley 10 @ 130.0

Joburg Open:
TBC

Pighead

Only a fool would bet against Vijay again this week. He really did look in great shape last week winning the Mercedes Open. However Pighead is a bit of a fool so I'll be taking the great man on this week.

David Toms @14/1: Last week I picked David Toms when his poor start put paid to any chance of winning. Apparently he's got a brand new set of clubs which obviously took him a bit of time to get used to. By the final round he was flying and he carded the lowest round of the day to finish a creditable 8th. Another plus is he's the defending champion here and won last year by an impressive 5 shots. At 14/1 he represents decent Each Way value.

Geoff Ogilvy @28/1: Ogilvy had a poor week last week finishing with a +1 total. He's a lot bette rthan that though as last years total of 13 top 25 finishes from 20 events shows(5 of them were top 10's). He finished last season by coming 2nd in the Target Championships and I reckon he can bounce back to form this weekend.

Davis Love to finish in the top 20 @ Evens: As Glenbhoy said, Davis Love finished well last week for a creditable 4th place finish. Paddys offer of Evens for a top 20 finish at Evens seems generous considering he's finished in the top 20 in 4 of his last 5 tournaments.



Bubba Watson @100/1: Bubba is one of the longest hitters on tour and finished 4th here last year. Overall he had a patchy season missing 14 cuts out of 29, with his putting letting him down. However with odds of a 100/1 and with the hope that hes ironed out his piutting problems I'm gonna chance him.

Verdict:
25 Points E/W on Toms @ 14/1
10 Points E/W on Ogilvy @ 28/1
20 Points on Davis Love to have a top 20 finish @ 1/1
5 Points E/W on Watson @ 100/1

Michelle Wie is back in action against the big boys with a number of players complaining about her wasting her time on the tour. Shes 7/2 to make the cut but considering her last 6 rounds on the mens tour have been 75, 77, 78, 79, 77, 81, 81 and 80 that would seem very scabby. For all you heavy hitters shes 1/6 to miss the cut (which looks kind of inevitable).

Good Luck To All.

Forgot to mention that Paddy Powers are paying out Each Way for the top 6. Most other bookies only go top 5.