2007 Golf Season

Glenbhoy

A word of warning Pighead - Ogilvy has missed the cut 4 years running here!!
I might just back Wie for the cut at 6.0 on betfair - if she's ever going to do it (and she will) this is the place - her home course, and she only missed it by one here as a 14yo!!
Toms is defending champion and is expected to go well, but it's still Donald for me!
Good luck

Pighead

Since almost making thecut as a 14 year old she seems to have regressed though and is even struggling on the womens tour. The last two times in Hawaii shes missed the cut with +7 and +12. But as you say she will make a cut eventually and hopefully for your bet it'll be this week.

Didn't realise Ogilvys record in Hawaii was so bad! He didn't play here last year though and arguably last year was when he really started playing to his potential so hopefully he can continue in that vein this weekend.( ie the bets are on and theres nothing I can do about it now!)

Good luck with your bets Glenbhoy.

Glenbhoy

Glenbhoy wrote:

Joburg Open
Who cares, crappy field, schwartzel is 5/1 fav which is a ridiculous price for him. My strategy is to put 4 euro on various players who I have heard of before at odds of about 200 - 500 on betfair and then trade them if they threaten.
All will be revealed tomorrow evening!!

Joburg Open:
TBC

I only had one bet in the end on the Joburg golf as there were no takers for most of my selections. Luckily enough as none of them are going overly well thusfar.
I did manage to get €6 on Edoardo Molinari at 250.0, he's lying jnt 4th on -7, so if he can keep that up, might be able to make some profit on a trade there. He won the US Amateur 2 yrs ago, his big bro won the Italian Open last year and he was certainly value at 250.0, given some of the crap that was below him in the prices. He'll hardly win, but at least i got a run!

DeadParrot

Pighead wrote:

Forgot to mention that Paddy Powers are paying out Each Way for the top 6. Most other bookies only go top 5.

Forgive a poor golfing novice, but Outright ew 1-2-3-4-5-6 is the market right.

Do I still need to mark the docket (online this is) e/w???


of course, Im dumb . anyway have plumped on toms. and am thinking surely singh e/w is a banker and a half.

Glenbhoy

yeah, you have to tick the ew box as usual - it starts in 2 mins, then it will trade in-running and the place betting will be 1,2,3,4 - so you better hurry!!

Glenbhoy

Didn't get on Wie in the end up (no betfair access at work!!), thankfully, Donald has started as well as could be expected, leading by 3 at the minute, hopefully that doesn't get cut into too much - still has a lot of work ahead of him - but I really don't think he'll do it, it's a course where people can probably catch up fast, although scoring today has not been great.
Olgivy looks like he'll give you a decent run too Pighead, he's nicely poised and Toms is moving ominously up that leaderboard. I'll probably lay out a bit of Donald if he has a lead after tomorrow (big if), I'll do the same with my Joburg selection Molinari, now a win for him would be nice, but if he can just remain in contention for the time being, I'll be happy.
Goodluck all (for the ew parts only;) )

Pighead

Good stuff Glenbhoy, Donald with an excellent round of 63 is setting th epace leading by 1 from KJ Choi. Ominously Big Jim Furyk lies just two behind on -5, the good news is that Vijays goose looks cooked. He lies on +1

David Toms: Crazy round from Toms. Bogeyed the first but made it to the turn in a very impressive -4. The back 9 however was an unmitigated disaster, with no birdies 2 bogeys and a stinker of a double bogey. His driving accuracy was a crappy 21%(Donalds was 65%). He's gonna have to sort that out if hes to hold any chance.

Geoff Ogilvy: Solid if unspectacular round from Ogilvy, started off with 9 straight pars and played the back 9 in -3. One of only 5 bogey free rounds in the 1st round. Perhaps he was playing slightly conservatively due to his terrible record here. Still decent enough start.

Bubba Watson: Bubba started well making the turn in -2 but a double bogey and 2 bogeys ruined all that good work. A birdie at the last left him at +1. Bubba won't be winning from there!

Davis Love III: Level Par round for Love, hes only 2 shots outside the top 20 though so need to panis yet. His putting was terrible though, hopefully hes out on the practice greens sorting his shit out as I type.

Special mention for JB Holmes who opened up with six bogies in his first 9 holes only to follow it up with 6 birdies on the back 9. Very Impressive!

Anyway won't be around for the rest of the weekend so I'm gonna wish my boys the bets of luck over the next 3 days. C'mon Lads you can do it(Except for you Bubba, you're fcuked)

Glenbhoy

The Sony is wide open if you ask me - none of the front runners including Furyk are great at closing the deal.
My Joburg pick Molinari led by 3 at one stage, before a nice bogey, quadruple bogey on the 8th and 9th put a stop to that, he did end the day with an eagle and is 3 back, but i feel his goose is cooked - unfortunately didn't get the chance to lay him (feckin time differences).
Enjoy the weekend - if Donald can keep it going I will!!

dfcelt

Good tips lads, ye probably know of this site but I thought I'd give it a mention, http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk
you get a grand (of virtual money:rolleyes: ) at the start of every month regardless of profit. Finished in top ten of golf last month, got a free £5. Won with VJ last week so my bets this weekend (placed Thurs morning) are:

These are my bets for this weekend, placed on Thurs.

14 January 2007
08:00 Joburg Open
£100 EW Hennie Otto @ 40/1
17:10 Sony Open
£50 EW Davis Love @ 22/1
£50 EW Peter Lonard @ 100/1
£250 EW Vijay Singh @ 6/1
£50 EW Geoff Ogilvy @ 28/1

Handy site to keep track of your progress. Keeps a historical of all bets placed & how much you've won or lost

dfcelt

Heres my golf performance since I joined. VJ won 2 tournies in Dec & I stuck with him in Jan, hence the profit



dfcelt - Golf Performance
Profit ROI Strike Rate LSP Tips Wins Stakes
January £2,400 400.00% 50.00% £4.00 2 1 £600
December £1,656 109.67% 53.85% £8.54 13 7 £1,510
November £538 199.26% 50.00% £4.91 4 2 £270

Glenbhoy

Good to have you on board dfcelt, btw what 2 tournaments did veej win in dec?
Anyway, damn my alcohol intake on a friday - woke up today to see that i've laid molinari at 60 (but only for my stake of €6) last night - the fecker is now trading at 10.0, i also laid him at 10.0, meaning that now i win €125 if anyone other than him wins and €90 if he wins - beer and vino, a bad mix!! I'll be absolutely gutted if he wins now - a total fcuk up of a 250-1 bet, but if he doesn't, it was a good strategy!!
In the Sony, keep up the good work Luke, still early days, but as he's trading at near evens, it's nearly time for me to lay him again?

Pighead

Donald still looking good Glenbhoy. Was heading for a pretty mediocre round until 3 birdies in his last 4 holes shot him back to the top of the leaderboard. Allenby is sneaking into contention and lies just 4 of the lead.

David Toms: Toms needed a big round yesterday and didn't get it. His round of 68 surely leaves him with too much to do. Again his driving was poor with a 28% accuracy.

Geoff Ogilvy: Poor round from Ogilvy carding a +2 72 and leaving him languishing near the bottom of the field. At least he made the cut I suppose!

Bubba Watson: Lovely 66 from Big Bubba means he shoots up the leaderboard into 25th. Needs another one of those tonight to break into the top 10. Obviously my harsh words about him yesterday spurred him on.

Davis Love III: Second succesive 70 from Davis Love means he barely makes the cut. The leaderboard being as tightly packed as it is means he still has a chance of a top 20 finish but he'd want to do something special tonight.

Dcfelt, think your getting mixed up about Vijay. He didn't play at all over December.

dfcelt

Apologies Pighead, checked my bets:

03/12/06 Nippon Series Cup
£55 EW Jeev Mikha Singh 6/1 £412

Hennie Otto finishing third (40/1) left me with 100 profit from weekend, we wont mention the Sony Open

14/01/07 Sony Open
£50 EW Davis Love 22/1 (£100)

14/01/07 Sony Open
£250 EW Vijay Singh 6/1 (£500)

14/01/07 Sony Open
£50 EW Peter Lonard 100/1 (£100)

14/01/07 Sony Open
£50 EW Geoff Ogilvy 28/1 (£100)

14/01/07 Joburg Open
£100 EW Hennie Otto 40/1 £900

Subtotal £100

Bring on Dubai!

badbrian

Am i right in thinking that Glenbhoy and Pighead are betting money and DCFelt is "virtually" betting?

Nice of P Powers to pay 6 places I hope it catches on. Certainly tempted me back last week for the Sony Open but my fancies of Cink and Kelly (who got a bit of a run going in Round 4 until 3 late bogeys killed off his chances).

Pighead

Poor Luke Donald missed out on a playoff when unheralded Paul Goydos(Who?) finished with 3 birdies in his last 4 holes to overtaske Donald and Howell by 1 shot. That 1st US Tour victory still eludes him.

David Toms: Toms finished up with another 68(his 3rd of the weekend) to end up on -6 and in a tiw for 13th place. Decent weekend for Toms but his driver was the difference between a decent tournament and a very good tournament.

Geoff Ogilvy: Excellent final round of 64 from Ogilvy shot him up the leaderboard into 8th place(one shot away from place money, bah). His second round of 72 proved to be costly. At least hes ended his Hawaii jinx though, could be a player to follow this season.

Bubba Watson: Bad finish from Bubba, a final round 73 meaning he drops down to 48th place.

Davis Love III: Terrible end to a terrible weekend for Davis Love, a final round 74 meaning he finished 68th(out of 72).

Verdict:
25 Points E/W on Toms @ 14/1:(
10 Points E/W on Ogilvy @ 28/1:(
20 Points on Davis Love to have a top 20 finish @ 1/1:(
5 Points E/W on Watson @ 100/1:(

Points Staked: 100
Points Returned: 0
Loss: 100

Enjoyable tournament, shame about the losses, hopefully Glenbhoy made a few quid in the end, onwards and upwards for the next tournament on Thursday.

Glenbhoy

Pighead wrote:

Enjoyable tournament, shame about the losses, hopefully Glenbhoy made a few quid in the end, onwards and upwards for the next tournament on Thursday.

I cleared €45 on the tournament - i stayed up to 3.20 last night, trading as I went, if i'd left it and went to bed at 1.00, i was well up on anyone winning bar Howell, but, no, couldn't walk away, had to get greedy didn't i. Ah well, took €110 for laying Molinari in SA, so not too bad overall. But feck I was tired this morning, and the wife wasn't too happy either;)

Glenbhoy

Bob Hope:
Bit of a silly tournament and since I can't get setanta I won't be able to see it anyway, so I decided to back a few longshots who've done well here in the past:
Namely - Duval (he shot a 59 here in '99), Lewis, and Huston. At least that was the idea until I decided to stick 150 on Mickelson!! (idiot that i can be, well I thought long and hard about it, all morning to be exact, turns out I could have waited, given he was 3 over after 4 - still, he might get back in the running again).
Mickelson win 150 @ 7.0
Duval win 8 @ 380
Stadler win 8 @ 220
Micheel 8ew at 120
Huston win 5 @ 380
Lewis top 5 - 7 @ 55
Duval top 10 - 15 @ 25


Abu Dhabi:
Went with Monty, played well here last year and he's been talking a good game for this year.
15 @ 38.0
Oliver Wilson, again he played well here last year, no real chance, but a big price, so who knows?
7 @ 320.0

I do like Monty in this tournament, although the favs Stenson and Garcia may take a lot of beating. I'd like Garcia to do well this season, we'll have to see how the putting holds up.

GL all!! (After Mickelson's start, I feckin need it anyway!)

dfcelt

Best of luck all, with this weekends action. Heres where the virtually money is going :rolleyes:
Currently top of the golfing tipster leaderboard woohoo

05:00 Abu Dhabi Golf Championship

£75 EW Jeev Mikha Singh @ 33/1
£100 EW Chris DiMarco @ 22/1
£150 EW Sergio Garcia @ 10/1
£40 EW Miguel Angel Jimenez @ 33/1
£100 Retief Goosen @ 10/1

16:00 Bob Hope Chrysler Open

£25 EW Justin Leonard @ 66/1
£25 EW Peter Lonard @ 66/1
£250 EW Phil Mickelson @ 11/2
£50 EW Charles Howell @ 28/1
£50 Robert Allenby @ 28/1

20:00 Mastercard Seniors Championship

£25 EW Des Smyth @ 50/1
Purely based on a fellow countryman!
£25 EW Peter Jacobsen @ 25/1

20:00 Womens World Cup of Golf
£50 Sweden @ 13/2

badbrian

Bob Hope €9 Cook top 10 28/1
€1 Cook win 300/1 (only E after R1)
€6 Parnevik top 10 @ 11/2 (-3)

Abu Dhabi €3.30 Harrington @ 11.9/1 (-4)

Let's hope someone gets something

Glenbhoy

Ah well, at least you're getting a run for your money Brian, my money is more or less done - still, been a good few weeks, so can't complain.
Gives me a chance to take a break form golf for the rest of the weekend, can watch the nfl in piece now on sun night - go colts!!
You've also got a few still running dc, you're not top of that tipster league for nothing;)
Good luck with Harrington.

badbrian

Managed to turn the weekend around. After Harrington failed to deliver I had a look at the Bob Hope again. After the leaders were about a third of the way into the round I saw the course must be playing tough so I had a look at how each had played that course previously. Hoffman had covered the back 9 in -3 and was only 1 off the lead in a 3 way tie for 3rd (only 1 behind) I got him backed at 17 for €12.75 and laid him at 10 for a free bet. I stopped following it when I saw he dropped at 16 only to see gloriously he was in a tie after 18. Let the money ride and have stake money for the next couple of weeks now.

Glenbhoy

badbrian wrote:

Managed to turn the weekend around.

Me too - the bob hope was a great event for trading (even bad traders like me could get out), I laid Rose to cover my stakes, ended up down €10 - that's a result as stood to lose €300 at one stage - strange the vagaries of this game, and then the Colts went on to take their game - that 12/1 I took 3 weeks ago looking good!!

Glenbhoy

Buick Golf:
Only one man worth backing - Woods, 7/4, imo a big, big, price. His record is pretty good, 4 wins (including the last 2 runnings) and only once out of the top 10 in his last 9 attempts here.

Qatar Golf:
I'm afraid I've taken the easy option here too, I'm on Els at 8/1, i think he's going to have a good year, he has great form here and he was stupendous in his last competitive round (pre-christmas) and so I also backed him for the masters yesterday at 16/1 with paddypower, if he starts as well as I hope, that 16/1 will be long gone by Monday.
I've also a saver on Steve Webster at 150/1, and possibly R Green at 80/1 - both players have shown good form here in the past and Webster in particular is interesting at a big price.

Buick:
Bought Tiger on a spread - max loss of 150, max win similar - if he finishes in the top 4 I'm in profit.

Qatar:
Els 45 @ 9.0
Webster 15 @ 145.0 odd
Green 8 @ 80.0 / 75.0 ?

Double:
Woods 7/4 and Els 8/1 - 30 with ladbrokes.

GL lads.

badbrian

Buick

I'm always happy to find reasons to oppose Woods even though the course record is awesome.
Here are my most recent ones.
1) His form will have to dip.
2) It's his first outing of the year.
3) Maybe marriage is kicking in.

I really wanted to back Oberholser as he has a very good record but not a runner.

Jerry Kelly €6 @10.5 to finish Top 10 (found a website that showed he had a very good stroke avge here)
Jerry Kelly €6 to win @170.0
David Duval €6 @ 18 to finish Top 10 (sounded very positive about his game after Buick and talking about winning in 2007!)
Brett Quigley €3 win @95.0 (great course record) couldn't get a decent Top 10 price.

Qatar (blind picks)
Clarke €8.88 @ 40.0 (just way too big a price)
Oliver Fisher €3 @ 200.00 to win
€7.50 @15.0 Top 10
Edfors €3 @75.0
Warren €3 @180.0

Here's hoping.

Glenbhoy

Did reasonably well last week, Green did well enough to trade at evs in qatar at one stage, so I laid him off and made about 100 on that event, tiger did as I hoped he would and I claimed another 150 on that.
I'm not getting too involved this week as I won't be able to keep an eye on it:
I don't particularly like Tiger this weekend anyway, I do fancy Els, but I couldn't back him at 5/1.
In the states I like the look of Calcavecchia, but don't know if I could back him at 50/1 either. (i was looking 90/1 on sunday night, but nobody took me on) I'm undecided still.
My selections will be:

Dubai:
Romero 150.0
Molinari 500.0
Edfors 150.0

and probably some top 10 and top 5 bets on these 3, depending on prices available.

Phoenix:
JJ Henry 90.0
A Canizares 250.0
A Baddeley 200.0
B Curtis 250.0
C Villegas 90.0

I'll go about 5/6 euro a piece on these lads, all longshots, but all have shown a little bit of form either this year or on the courses.
I fancy Edfors, Villegas and JJ Henry to go well as all have played well on these courses in the past. Villegas has also shown a little form of late, Henry is a good golfer who looks overpriced, the likes of edfors and baddeley can win having shown nothing form wise previously, so at prices like that are often worth a punt. Others like Canizares and Molinari will come good someday in some of these tournaments, in addition they're often good for trading.
In summation however, my main fancies are Els and Calcavecchia, I will probably throw 20 on Calc, but I'm not backing Els at those prices, I prefer to throw a little more on him for the masters at 16/1 - that to my mind is a great price, and i expect him to go off for the masters at about 8/1 (well ye can all remind me of this prediction when he is 25/1 in April:D ).
Good luck all.

badbrian

Last week was nearly a complete bust. I had €1.50 matched at 12/1 on Romero to finish top 10. Fisher finished just one shot outside the top 10.

In Dubai. I have taken 2 tiger tamers at big prices. Clarke at 130.0 for €6 and Campbell at 110.0 for €4.50.
Also Clarke €2 to win w/o Woods at 65.0

In the States I've gone with Mickelson. Very good course record and 10/1 a fair price. €15.

Glenbhoy

Another good week last week with Baddely coming in at 200.0, cleared about 400 on the tournament after laying him off. No money up in Dubai, but only small stakes loss.
For this week (bearing in mind the run is going to have end soon), my selections are (no time for a write up):
Malaysia
JM Singh 25.0
Westwood 20/1
Romero 70.0

(I may have someone else at big odds too for small stakes, but can't remember offhand). Westwood has started badly, don't know about the others yet.

AT&T
Mickelson on spreads, top 8 wins me money, not much though, 50 max loss.
Taturangi 4 at 1000.0 - finished 2nd here 4 yrs ago, sure worth a punt.
Villegas 6 @ 180.0 - going keep on backing him at big odds, u never know.
Leonard 230.0, again big odds for a player of his class, short course too, realistically, odds reflect his chances.
Canizares 250.0 see Villegas!!
Trying to get on JJ Henry and Ben Crane at almost 150 odd, don't know if matched.

Good luck.

Just remembered also on Atwal 13 @ 330.0, now trying to lay him off at 24.0 for 100 - would leave me 60 up for the tournament regardless of what happens next, and still another 2000 of potential profit on Atwal to play around with.