Seven Stages of Property Cycle.

squire1

Did anyone see David McWilliams "The Popes Children" last night. He was explaining the seven stages of the property boom. I was just wondering if he made this up or is it an actual economic model that has been proven in the past in other countries. The reason I ask is that it seemed like a very, very accurate description of what has happened to property and people in Ireland over the last 15 years.

McWilliams stated that we were now in stage five but I believe we have entered stage six where people are starting to "feel the pinch" as he put it. The next step apparently is "banging the door" when investors scramble to exit the property market. Scary stuff. How accurate is it?

Sponge Bob

Its probably the Hyman Minsky Cycle , a Universal Framework for all Bubbles , stage 5 is Euphoria which in our case lasted from 2004 - c.Spring 2006 .

Stage 6 (now) is Insider Profit Taking .

Stage 7 is called Revulsion.

Here is the complete 7 stage model of a bubble (any bubble)

http://www.irishstrangler.com/wordpress/?p=120

hmmm

I think he took that cycle and just put some new wording on it. Pity, because I think the original wording is more stark.

If you look at probably any bubble you'll see the phases in action - the dot com boom and Japanese property two good recent examples. Beanie babies for another slightly off the wall example

Sponge Bob

Mc Williams and his trite labels eh . I'll give him one so .

ARSE !

Acronyms Ruin Serious Economists !

DublinWriter

I think auld Davey's career as a media person is undergoing the same seven-stage cycle.