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Housing market

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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,486 ✭✭✭miju


    ireland ran out of wealth LONG ago , problem is we've been binging on cheap credit ever since and thats the REAL danger as theres a big credit crunch under way to mop up excess liquidity in the global markets since Sep'01


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,486 ✭✭✭miju


    jdivision wrote:
    Daft's results are unscientific, it's based on what's listed on their website rather than monitoring a basket of properties over a period of time.

    2 things here,

    firstly, you've obviously dismissed the report as tosh WITHOUT reading it because that's actually what they do by the month

    secondly, it is Irelands largest property website and therefore the best way of getting a snap shot of the entire market inventory and price as possible


  • Registered Users Posts: 812 ✭✭✭littlesurfer


    Wow, thats so much information to take in at one time......i think the general message is to hang on,...bar a few in disagreement.....

    The OP has a home, the issue for the OP is whether they should load their ass up with €300k of debt right now !

    I recommend the OP chillax , have a good christmas and do some serious research till next March and then make their mind up
    Spongebob


    i think thats what i'l go with


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    hmmm wrote:
    That's where a lot of people in this country will get screwed. They are buying the absolute maximum of what they can borrow, and there is no safety net if things go wrong - sickness, unemployment, whatever. It also presupposes that houses hold their value - if no-one can afford to buy a house, prices will drop - it's just economics, a lot of people treat it as a religious argument.

    I most certainly won't get screwed. I didn't borrow the "maximum" available to me.
    I bought my three-bed semi in Dublin by myself and had no problem paying the mortagage by myself for two years.
    I now live with my fiance and we are both paying the mortgage, very comfortably.
    We are also among the first 'inheritors' in our families. Both my parents and his own their homes.
    I'm happy where I live, I don't want to move.
    Not everyone who has bought property in recent years is mortgaged to the max, squashed into an apartment or commuting four hours every day.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    hmmm wrote:
    huh? So the developer will give you an apartment at lower than the price he is advertising it for? Does that not make the point that prices are falling? Or do you believe he is really giving you a special deal?
    gurramok wrote:
    Think Conor74 is trying to say is that the developer just can't sell that apt in south kerry for the 'risen price' and had to reverse to the price it was 2 months ago to get Conor74 in the door to persuade him to buy it:)

    Apartment sold 2/3 months back for €215k. Sale has just fallen through in recent days. In the meantime, the same apartments are getting €230k, but rather than putting it back on the market and waiting another 3 months he would rather get the money he was banking on getting all along for a quick sale. Hence, it's not a 'lower' or reversed price, it's just that an opportunity has arisen.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    seems to me like an opportunity well taken by the builder Conor :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,260 ✭✭✭jdivision


    miju wrote:
    2 things here,

    firstly, you've obviously dismissed the report as tosh WITHOUT reading it because that's actually what they do by the month

    secondly, it is Irelands largest property website and therefore the best way of getting a snap shot of the entire market inventory and price as possible
    Actually I have read it but I have never trusted Daft's statistics because they're based on a completely unscientific base, they're as bad as the Dept of the Environments. It all depends on what gets listed there that month. So what if it's Ireland's largest property website, it doesn't matter as long as it's statistically inaccurate.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,486 ✭✭✭miju


    Apartment sold 2/3 months back for €215k. Sale has just fallen through in recent days. In the meantime, the same apartments are getting €230k, but rather than putting it back on the market and waiting another 3 months he would rather get the money he was banking on getting all along for a quick sale. Hence, it's not a 'lower' or reversed price, it's just that an opportunity has arisen.

    best of luck with the purchase , however i think you would need to ask yourself why the sale fell through for starters or indeed if it was sale agreed in the first place and secondly why the builder is not that bothered about €15k as they are not a charity by any stretch of the imagination

    where is the apartment out of curiousity?


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    miju wrote:
    why the sale fell through for starters or indeed if it was sale agreed in the first place

    Purchaser had some issue with raising finance. Saw the sale agreements, know contracts issued, know deposit paid to the auctioneer because the original purchaser now looking for it back...
    miju wrote:
    why the builder is not that bothered about €15k

    Oh he would rather get the €230k, just that I told him I might know someone who would buy it straight away on the basis that the price was the same as he expected to get, and not the new market price. He saves on time and auctioneer's fees so it's not without its advantages for him.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,486 ✭✭✭miju


    Oh he would rather get the €230k, just that I told him I might know someone who would buy it straight away on the basis that the price was the same as he expected to get, and not the new market price. He saves on time and auctioneer's fees so it's not without its advantages for him.

    not to come across negative as that sounds fair enough , call me sceptical if you wish i just dont see why the builder would do that if he had full confidence in the market and could get an extra 15k which to be honest in a bouyant market wouldn't be much hassle

    what location is the apartment?


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    miju wrote:
    call me sceptical if you wish

    In fairness, I share your scepticism to a point. The apartment is 3 bedroomed, in the middle of a large town with lots of employment and good rental income, HomeBonded, in an area designated for tax relief, and the prices have gone up (though admittedly barely enough to cover stamp duty and any CGT). If I can raise the money, think I might give it a punt. Even if the market collapses, how far can a €215k property slump?
    miju wrote:
    what location is the apartment?

    Town in Kerry.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,486 ✭✭✭miju


    Even if the market collapses, how far can a €215k property slump?

    how long is a piece of string but for an indicator all you have to do is look at the 10 year slump from japans bubble and the current US slump for indicative price drops

    asking prices have been falling in kerry by the way, so my scepticism of the builders generosity wouldnt be unfounded http://irishhousepricesfalling.blogspot.com/


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,381 ✭✭✭✭Paulw


    Prices in Dublin are certainly not dropping, but they are not increasing as quickly as they were.

    There is no way of knowing when the market will turn, and there is no way to know by how much.

    As the phrase goes - a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. It's better to have a property than to just sit there and wait until the prices stop increasing. That's as long as you don't over do it when buying in the first place.

    Buy what you can afford.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Calina


    Paulw wrote:
    As the phrase goes - a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. It's better to have a property than to just sit there and wait until the prices stop increasing. That's as long as you don't over do it when buying in the first place.

    Buy what you can afford.

    Life is not that simple. I'd prefer to have no property and rent near work and avoid the whole commuting nonsense that goes with buying a property that is similar in size and facility to the one I rent. I'd also prefer to have no property if the only property I can have is a one bedroomed apartment in a giant estate which goes on forever, relatively poorly served by public transport, still a building site, subject to arguments in the Management Company.

    I'm sick to the teeth of people saying "buy what you can afford" because it's not just money. Quality of life is important too and if you choose to buy what you can afford but then spend three hours commuting every day, then the price you are paying may not be money, but life...


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,486 ✭✭✭miju


    Paulw wrote:
    Prices in Dublin are certainly not dropping, but they are not increasing as quickly as they were.

    you obviously didnt have a look at the link in my previous post with plenty of examples of asking price falls , daft report even said prices on dublin south are beginning to fall


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,581 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    some of the fall is due to speculation about reduction in stamp duty soon, so we'll see how things are in the aftermath of the budget.

    overall the prices are artificial , perhaps double what they are worth - how much does it cost a builder to build a house at the moment ?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,486 ✭✭✭miju


    the whole stamp duty issue is a big red herring

    to be honest Capt'n Midnight , me and a few others were recording price drops on ask about money WELL BEFORE it became an issue in the first place and to be honest i think it's really a non issue for a couple of reasons

    mainly being any changes are only going to prolong the property for another couple of months before price rises (if there is any) will bring everyone back to where we are now


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    Surely if stamp duty was the issue, buyers would just put down a booking deposit now and claim it back if there are no changes? This SD thing is just a desperate attempt to hide a market that has run out of greater fools.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,486 ✭✭✭miju


    exactly hmmm that would be another of the reasons and indeed there is evidnce (anecdotal) that buyers are doing this already just not in sufficient numbers to keep the number of sales up

    it would appear the be the latest in the list of "reasons" with the last one being "it's off season and will pick up in sept" of course when this didn't materialise stamp duty then became the white elephant that it currently is, finally IMHO the interest rate rise due in december shortly will cancel out any rise in bullish sentiment caused by any stamp duty changes (if there is any)

    also, what i've noticed recently is 3 seperate threads on other sites is where the seller has been gazundered and accepted , now this is a new phenoma that i find interesting as last year if you tried to gazunder you would be just looked over and the next buyer would gladly take your place , seems some buyers can sniff the nervousness / panic in the air


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,465 ✭✭✭TheBigLebowski


    Of course the issue of stamp duty is having affect on the market. It doesn't matter if it is a red herring. Red herrings affect the housing market. Personally I know of 2 people who are due to close shortly but are pushing it out until after the budget. Who would hand over thousands in stamp duty now only for it to be dropped next week (possibly) for 1st time buyers. Obviously it is not the only thing affecting the market and I am not the type who thinks house prices only go up, but to suggest that concerns about stamp duty are not having an impact on house sales at the moment is incorrect.
    By the way, I think that they will make changes to the stamp duty in an effort to boost the market a little bit. The government can see which way the market is going and they need to try and get it moving again to bring in the money. They are fairly reliant on stamp duty money and can't afford a housing crash. Probably not a good idea long term but when did this government ever think long term?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,477 ✭✭✭Kipperhell


    gurramok wrote:
    Who'd pay for those new housing thats needed as you say?
    Where are they going to live is the issue.
    gurramok wrote:
    Its certainly not the vast majority of the population who cannot afford to buy now.
    There is only a certain amount of wealth out there to purchase things, only solution is to drop prices so these extra houses and the present 100,000+ would shift. (60,000 new builds since '02 lying empty)

    No that is a belief in crude economics. The vast majority of the population live in privately owned property. In other countries large companies own rental property and the there is a lower population of privately owned property. Wealth does not have to come from the people it can come from business.

    The latest ERSI report said property prices have continued to rise last month. Proof of a price drop is at best flawed. I believe the ERSI before Daft but that is my choice. Either way it won't really effect me unless there is a huge drop of 60%+.
    A home is not really an investment and should not be looked as that way.

    There are certainly people waiting for the budget before buying and there are still a lot of SSIAs to be cashed in. I don't think a crash is happening but waiting seems like a good idea no matter what.

    THe best think to ask anybody who is predicting a crash or says it is happening is how long have you been saying that. It gives you an idea of their frame of mind. I know people saying it for over 5 years. There is a big difference between buying at 25 and 30 when prices increase over 30% in the time given. You should go with affordability with a buffer and don't listen to the pub type conversations you get from people "telling" you they know the future.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    Kipperhell wrote:
    Where are they going to live is the issue.
    Plenty of land available, just not zoned yet, horded by developers around the major urban centres, enough land out there to fit that million in :)
    Kipperhell wrote:
    No that is a belief in crude economics. The vast majority of the population live in privately owned property. In other countries large companies own rental property and the there is a lower population of privately owned property. Wealth does not have to come from the people it can come from business.

    Oh, so you are saying that the market has changed now.
    As ordinary folk cannot afford especially FTB's, business is buying up property and renting it out to fill that gap in market? (tbh, first i've heard of this been as widespread)
    Kipperhell wrote:
    The latest ERSI report said property prices have continued to rise last month. Proof of a price drop is at best flawed. I believe the ERSI before Daft but that is my choice. Either way it won't really effect me unless there is a huge drop of 60%+.
    A home is not really an investment and should not be looked as that way.
    Latest ESRI report is on mortgages drawn down in Oct, not sale agreed prices which are agreed upto 2months previously and add a month to prepare the report.(more like an August report)
    Incidentally daft is the most upto date report, wonder why you disregard it:rolleyes:
    You're right about investment, unfortunately quick buck speculators dont agree with you
    Kipperhell wrote:
    There are certainly people waiting for the budget before buying and there are still a lot of SSIAs to be cashed in. I don't think a crash is happening but waiting seems like a good idea no matter what.
    Interesting one if indeed budget will have an affect to bring the hordes back, guess its wait and see even though i'm a sceptic
    Nearly half of all SSIA's have matured by now, no affect yet on market.
    Kipperhell wrote:
    THe best think to ask anybody who is predicting a crash or says it is happening is how long have you been saying that. It gives you an idea of their frame of mind. I know people saying it for over 5 years. There is a big difference between buying at 25 and 30 when prices increase over 30% in the time given. You should go with affordability with a buffer and don't listen to the pub type conversations you get from people "telling" you they know the future.
    Those sayin it 5 years ago never predicted 9/11 would cause interest rates to nosedive to help strugglin economies hence they were wrong in a crash.
    Unless another major global incident doesnt happen again in next 5 years to crash economies, interest rates will resemble economics and will go up to normal levels and their affect on jumbo mortgages are seismic.
    You are right in advising not to listen to pub conversations, watching the markets(housing/financial) is a good indicator when to buy :)


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,486 ✭✭✭miju


    Kipperhell wrote:
    The latest ERSI report said property prices have continued to rise last month. Proof of a price drop is at best flawed. I believe the ERSI before Daft but that is my choice. Either way it won't really effect me unless there is a huge drop of 60%+.

    which ESRI report was that ? any links to it online
    Kipperhell wrote:
    THe best think to ask anybody who is predicting a crash or says it is happening is how long have you been saying that. It gives you an idea of their frame of mind. I know people saying it for over 5 years. There is a big difference between buying at 25 and 30 when prices increase over 30% in the time given.

    i've two things to say about that. firstly of course the natural reponse to this is that the "bulls" have also been wrong for the same amount of time with their predictions. however, it is looking increasingly more likely that the bears have finally got it right and the bulls have finally got it wrong (if you get my meaning)

    your right there is a big difference in waiting 5 years and thats why alot of buying was done with the mindset of "if i dont buy now i'll never get on the ladder" etc , but with prices beginning to fall that panic is gone along with the demand it created

    with that in mind you have to remember also five years ago the property market was turning (and we were at the point we are now with dips in prices etc) , then 9 / 11 happened the world economy got all upset and emergency interest rates were introduced which resulted in the property market we have today , now of course the central banks the world over are in the process of mopping up all of this excess liquidity where are back to square 1 five years ago but this time with no emergency interest rates...........

    february onwards of next year will be an incredibly interesting time for the property market given the rates rise and stamp duty changes (if any) , i think whatever shape the market is in at this time will be a very clear indication of to whats to come next as if buyers return all well adn good BUT if they don't you've got a nice glut of unsold property added to together with "fresh" stock and if i'm not mistaken one of the first pre requists to a dip / fall / crash / whatever in property prices (going on previous property bubbles ) is a large build up of inventory


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,477 ✭✭✭Kipperhell


    gurramok wrote:
    Plenty of land available, just not zoned yet, horded by developers around the major urban centres, enough land out there to fit that million in :)

    The assumptions there are it will be zoned and that the governement will take on the devlopers. No sign of that happening.:p Land is not homes. You can fit lots of people in an area doesn't mean they will move there. Location, location, location
    gurramok wrote:
    Oh, so you are saying that the market has changed now.
    As ordinary folk cannot afford especially FTB's, business is buying up property and renting it out to fill that gap in market? (tbh, first i've heard of this been as widespread)

    I am saying that it is possible that the assumption the market will change to allow people buy is not a certainty and other things are just as likely. Ordinary folk can afford houses as they have them. There are more poeple living in privet house here than anywhere else. Can you actually sate how you know ordinary folk can't buy? Average wage means nothing as it doesn't consider family assets passed down. Who other than some FTBs can't afford property? How much of the population is that really? What gap in the market houses are still selling?
    gurramok wrote:
    Latest ESRI report is on mortgages drawn down in Oct, not sale agreed prices which are agreed upto 2months previously and add a month to prepare the report.(more like an August report)
    Incidentally daft is the most upto date report, wonder why you disregard it:rolleyes:
    You're right about investment, unfortunately quick buck speculators dont agree with you

    I don't think that is how it is worked out and daft's method is highly questionable IMHO. You disreagard ERSI in favour of a free ads website your choice and my choice. I haven't seen any price drops but have seen asking prices not been reached. Houses still sell for more than last year and haven't gone down as far I can see. So Daft's information does not tally with what I know and ERSIs does.
    MIJU>The ERSI report was stated all last week in the papers and the big news was there was decrease in the normal increase but still an increase. Don't have a link but RTE might as the reported it on the 6-1 news
    gurramok wrote:
    Interesting one if indeed budget will have an affect to bring the hordes back, guess its wait and see even though i'm a sceptic
    Nearly half of all SSIA's have matured by now, no affect yet on market.

    I know people waiting and most people think something will happen. The Majority of the SSIAs were taken out towards the end of possible applications was the way I remeber it. So I don't see how nearly half have matured but I am not sure one way are the other about cash value how are you?
    gurramok wrote:
    Those sayin it 5 years ago never predicted 9/11 would cause interest rates to nosedive to help strugglin economies hence they were wrong in a crash.
    Unless another major global incident doesnt happen again in next 5 years to crash economies, interest rates will resemble economics and will go up to normal levels and their affect on jumbo mortgages are seismic.
    You are right in advising not to listen to pub conversations, watching the markets(housing/financial) is a good indicator when to buy :)

    They have been predicting a price drop for longer than 5 years and while rates were down kept on predicting it. How long have you expected a drop?

    MIJU> I simply don't believe your view is based on any solid ground. House prices have continued to rise. 9/11 is just another thing rolled out to excuse why the market failed to crash when the predictions of a crash afterwards were still made and also wrong 5 years on. How long have you been predicting a crash? Are you waiting to buy?

    Nobody KNOWS what will happen and I think little of the daft reports becasue I remember people quoting it last year saying they showed the market fell/slowed/about to crash. It is still an inacurate survey and not a suitable guage IMHO. I'm not saying the market will rise or crash just pointing out how claims of a crash/drop are dubiously compiled. I don't know where the extra population will live if they come to Ireland but many will rent and those already owning may buy to rent or companies will do it. I know a lot of people wanting to buy and they will wait till they can afford. Lots of adults living with parents can't afford to wait 2-3 for stabalised prices after a massive drop. When you are 35 proffessional with no assets and live at home how would you feel?

    A home is still not a investment and in the long term it is better than renting finacially speaking.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,486 ✭✭✭miju


    Kipperhell wrote:
    I haven't seen any price drops but have seen asking prices not been reached.

    so in otherwords they haven't reached there asking price?????? so if you try to sell for €100,000 for example but only sell it for €90,000 what is that? it's a plain and simple price drop
    Kipperhell wrote:
    They have been predicting a price drop for longer than 5 years and while rates were down kept on predicting it. How long have you expected a drop?

    see my post above yours for the reasons and again i'll reiterate the being wrong for 5 years cant be used as a stick to beat bears with becuase the bulls have been just as wrong (if ont more) for the same period

    Kipperhell wrote:
    MIJU> I simply don't believe your view is based on any solid ground. House prices have continued to rise. 9/11 is just another thing rolled out to excuse why the market failed to crash when the predictions of a crash afterwards were still made and also wrong 5 years on. How long have you been predicting a crash? Are you waiting to buy?

    grand you don't have to believe me but you can believe the EMF and various other central banks , i'll dig out a couple of bookmarks for you later on when i'm home from work that makes interesting reading , i've no plans on buying at current prices and wont buy in until prices fall to more fundamental levels , if they don't i'll gladly rent for the rest of my life and enjoy saving the excess that i would be paying towards a mortgage
    Kipperhell wrote:
    Nobody KNOWS what will happen and I think little of the daft reports becasue I remember people quoting it last year saying they showed the market fell/slowed/about to crash. It is still an inacurate survey and not a suitable guage IMHO.

    the daft reports are the most accurate current snapshot ireland has of the property market oh and by the way the daft didn't indicate anything of the sort last year but again don't take my word for it pop over to daft and grab a copy of their reports from last year to see for yourself , alas you might not respect the DAFT report but the majority if not all our economists respect it

    have looked for that ESRI report on their website but it doesn't seem to be anywhere on their press release / report section for this month , where did you read it on RTE as would be interested to read it


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    Kipperhell wrote:
    I am saying that it is possible that the assumption the market will change to allow people buy is not a certainty and other things are just as likely. Ordinary folk can afford houses as they have them. There are more poeple living in privet house here than anywhere else. Can you actually sate how you know ordinary folk can't buy? Average wage means nothing as it doesn't consider family assets passed down. Who other than some FTBs can't afford property? How much of the population is that really? What gap in the market houses are still selling?

    Ordinary folk can't afford them, if they can..they have to buy a small place in an 'undesirable area' under 317.5k, assuming they can borrow to the hilt and get big deposit
    Average wage means ALOT, its an indicator of how many people can afford to buy. (See previous post http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=52342586&postcount=1157)
    Family assets?..Do FTB's have to wait till their parents die to inherit the assets to get that huge deposit?:eek:
    Can you show that ordinary folk especially ftb's can still buy houses, i'm not asking about the small niche of high earner FTB's but those among the general population.
    Most of the population imho have houses already and can afford them as they bought pre cheap credit days.
    FTB's hold up the pyramid of the housing market hence they are very important to it.
    Kipperhell wrote:
    I don't think that is how it is worked out and daft's method is highly questionable IMHO. You disreagard ERSI in favour of a free ads website your choice and my choice. I haven't seen any price drops but have seen asking prices not been reached. Houses still sell for more than last year and haven't gone down as far I can see. So Daft's information does not tally with what I know and ERSIs does.
    Yes it is how is worked out, thats a fact..ESRI/PTSB report is already out of date by at least 3 months, daft is not and above all daft is not bankrolled by the vested interests banks.
    I have seen many price drops.. http://irishhousepricesfalling.blogspot.com/
    Asking prices have dropped hence the houses are not selling at their higher prices.
    Yes houses sell for more than last year as they did go 15%+ year on year upto sept, then stalled and are now falling back.
    Kipperhell wrote:
    I know people waiting and most people think something will happen. The Majority of the SSIAs were taken out towards the end of possible applications was the way I remeber it. So I don't see how nearly half have matured but I am not sure one way are the other about cash value how are you?

    Yes, i think it was nearly 50% taken out near the end, i did read about it was maybe 35%(dont have link, not nearly half as said apologies there:)) taken out already which have had no affect. See a report from boi http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/1127/ssia.html where they say 84% of matured already are continuing saving part or all of their lump sum.
    Kipperhell wrote:
    They have been predicting a price drop for longer than 5 years and while rates were down kept on predicting it. How long have you expected a drop?
    I started to predict a drop this year as i noticed when interest rates went up at the same time as house prices went up and salaries have not kept pace with prices for last 5 yrs, something was gonna give on affordability and it wasn't salaries nor rates to rise or fall respectively.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,260 ✭✭✭jdivision


    miju wrote:

    the daft reports are the most accurate current snapshot ireland has of the property market
    Once again I have to pull you up on this. The daft report is completely unscientific, it's based on properties put up on the website so if you get a crap houses over any one period it distorts the figures. This also happens if there's a large number of expensive properties on the market at any one time. This is also why the DoE figures are always ridiculously wrong. Unless you track a basket of properties and value them every six months you can't comment on how the market works.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,486 ✭✭✭miju


    found that ESRI report , properties fell 0.4% in October for the first time in a long time , interesting reading all right

    jdivision , not that i remember you pulling me up on it before but seeing as how you make a point of it i might as well pull you up and correct you and tell you that the report is not as basic as you'd like to make out and if you read it you will clearly see that

    particularly pay attention to page 4 which is broken down not only by region but by house type and then read page 5 for their methodolgy on compiling the report so bang goes that "crap house" theory :) , in fact when your reading page 5 of that report you will note the report is so useless and unscientific that the central bank use it as a reference :)

    but sure believe what you want what do they all know


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,260 ✭✭✭jdivision


    miju wrote:

    jdivision , not that i remember you pulling me up on it before but seeing as how you make a point of it i might as well pull you up and correct you and tell you that the report is not as basic as you'd like to make out and if you read it you will clearly see that

    particularly pay attention to page 4 which is broken down not only by region but by house type and then read page 5 for their methodolgy on compiling the report so bang goes that "crap house" theory :) , in fact when your reading page 5 of that report you will note the report is so useless and unscientific that the central bank use it as a reference :)

    To quote the report:
    Furthermore, based on your suggestions,
    refinements have been made to the methodology
    underpinning the Asking Price Index since the last
    Report. A working paper on the methodologies employed
    in both markets will be published on www.daft.ie/report in
    August 2006.

    So not only was their methodology not up to scratch previously, they've now launched a working paper to try and improve the one used for the report you quote. Believe me I think house prices are falling in certain areas, I'm just saying that the daft report is not up to scratch. yet.
    This shows how others calculate it.
    http://archives.tcm.ie/businesspost/2006/04/09/story13276.asp


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,718 ✭✭✭SkepticOne


    Just wondering if anyone has any thoughts on the property market at the moment. I've been putting off buying for a little while now but i'm getting impatient....people keep telling me to hang on that its coming down
    If you are buying in order to own your own home (and not as an investment) then you will not be concerned about the movement of price - either up or down. Your main concern will be the size of the debt you will be paying off for the next 30 years.

    I think, however, that many people who are buying ostensibly for a home, are really buying for investment purposes, and that they would not dream of buying the sort of places they are buying but for the fact that there has been such high capital appreciation in recent years.

    But continued capital appreciation is by no means guaranteed. Asking prices have stalled and the owner of the largest property website is now pushing the idea of Dublin people taking profit moving to cheaper properties in the West. New homes are not increasing in price and have shown a small fall recently.

    It will be interesting to see how things pan out over the next few months. The prediction of the bulls has been that there would be a levelling off in prices but no fall. I think this prediction is unrealistic since it does not take into account the fact that capital appreciation is one of the things that make property at current prices attractive, but we will find out one way or the other of the next 5 to 6 months.

    However, if you are buying for a home you should not care about any of that.


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