Housing Bubble Bursting

pjbrady1

Mr Zambia323, we would like you to remove the (x) family from their residence in Southhill, Limerick. Doesn't sound such an appealing career now I'd say.

Raskolnikov

soma wrote:

I wonder could this accelerate their relocation to cheaper destinations.

They would rather pay Irish Corporation Tax on their big revenue generator in Ireland Fab24. The Corporation Tax is still a good enough benefit to keep them here. They might make a few cuts but they won't up and move for awhile yet.

Zambia

pjbrady1 wrote:

Mr Zambia323, we would like you to remove the (x) family from their residence in Southhill, Limerick. Doesn't sound such an appealing career now I'd say.

It will probably sound worse to the pile of Polish ex-builders I employ to do it with me.

But you know the saying where theres muck there money.

However the question still stands like it or not with debt levels as they are someone has to go into re-possessing.:(

Zambia

More doomed bell ringing for certain areas

http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0117/housing.html

and

http://www.rte.ie/business/2007/0117/property.html

gearoidmm

pjbrady1 wrote:

We have all got it wrong. IFG have the hard data facts, and they know how to twist it. See if ye can spot the gaps in the logic of this article from IFG Mortgages on Unison. News for you IFG, market hit a peak in October, those mortgages are for 6pc more than same period last year. So few companies are coming out and saying house prices falling that when somebody does eventually (most likely www.daft.ie) there will be alot of panic when Irish independent/times report it.

---

Joint applicants, on the other hand, appeared to be coping with the six rises in interest rates over the last year or so.

Despite predictions that the housing market had peaked, consumers in the last three months of last year were forced to borrow €14,000 more to buy a house.

The average purchase mortgage was now €230,180, up 6pc on the same period last year.

IFG said this indicated that house prices were continuing to creep upwards in spite of predictions the property market had hit a peak.

And rising interest rates have prompted more borrowers to take on mortgages with a longer term. Some 43pc of house buyers have opted to pay back the home loan over 30 or more years.

Half of borrowers conducting business through IFG brokerages around the country are now taking out loans of between 25 and 35 years' duration.

This is just beautiful. The massaging of statistics to give the best possible outcome. They state that the average purchase mortgage nationwide is 240,000 which is up 14,000 from the same period last year. They do not compare it with the previous quarter which if you look at their own report..

http://www.ifggroup.com/article-mortgage-trends-42.html

The average purchase mortgage in Q3 2006 was 241,000. Thus the average mortgage fell by 1,000 between Q3 and Q4 2006

Victor

Zambia232 wrote:

Lads anyone know how to become a Balliff in the republic. Sounds like it may be a growth industry.

Its a free for all, but you will probably have to register with the new Private Security Authority and get contracts with a Sheriff. http://www.psa.gov.ie

Afuera

gearoidmm wrote:

This is just beautiful. The massaging of statistics to give the best possible outcome. They state that the average purchase mortgage nationwide is 240,000 which is up 14,000 from the same period last year. They do not compare it with the previous quarter which if you look at their own report..

http://www.ifggroup.com/article-mortgage-trends-42.html

The average purchase mortgage in Q3 2006 was 241,000. Thus the average mortgage fell by 1,000 between Q3 and Q4 2006

Thought I was looking at the wrong report there for a minute... They actually have those average price figures for Q3 2006 and Q4 2006 as 231,000 and 230,180 respectively. You're right though, there was a drop of nearly a grand between the two quarters. Well spotted!

And then they have the cheek to say "house prices were continuing to creep upwards in spite of predictions the property market had hit a peak"... I'm still not too sure who's the worst culprit in all this; them for coming out with this rosy press release to try and protect their industry or the media for just printing whatever gets sent to them without question

EDO

soma wrote:

It's being reported this morning that Intel's quarterly profit has dropped 40% and their stock has dropped 4% as a result. If they come under pressure for cost-cutting that is faster than expected, I wonder could this accelerate their relocation to cheaper destinations.

http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/breaking/2007/0117/breaking21.htm

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=35&si=1756795&issue_id=15125

Well it could be a lot worse - still its the drip, drip, drip effect that is worrying

Gurgle

Zambia232 wrote:

More doomed bell ringing for certain areas
http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0117/housing.html

From that link:

those at greatest risk of negative equity would be those taking out a 100% mortgage on houses requiring a two-and-a-half hour drive from Dublin.

The assumption being, as always, that everyone works in Dublin and wants to live there.:rolleyes:

Further assuming that the transport infrastructure is never actually going to be built. Can't argue with that one actually, but a 2.5 hour commute from Dublin at rush hour puts you about 30 miles away, or a 30-45 minute commute if we had some roads and trains out here in the sticks.

In the report, they're talking about a 'functional area extending 100km into neighbouring counties'. That would take you more than half-way to Galway or Belfast.

I'd say for every one person hoping to move back to Dublin to be closer to their job, theres probably 5 people looking for jobs closer to their homes.

Sponge Bob

Gurgle wrote:

In the the report, they're talking about a 'functional area extending 100km into neighbouring counties'. That would take you more than half-way to Galway or Belfast.

and a toll plaza away on the new roads. These toll plazas are not to be discounted. The largest functional commuter belt would seem to be south to Gorey (no toll ) or sw to Monasterevein (no toll) whereas you wlll not get to Navan or Mullingar without a toll or to anywhere north of Drogheda.

I'd say for every one person hoping to move back to Dublin to be closer to their job, theres probably 5 people looking for jobs closer to their homes.

In the midlands ????? Nahhhh! And there is no proper broadband for telecommuters either. Once you are in a rural area 10 miles from Dublin, or further, you have no broadband and cannot telecommute.

Gurgle

Sponge Bob wrote:

and a toll plaza away on the new roads. These toll plazas are not to be discounted. The largest functional commuter belt would seem to be south to Gorey (no toll ) or sw to Monasterevein (no toll) whereas you wlll not get to Navan or Mullingar without a toll or to anywhere north of Drogheda.

And thats relevant to what?

Sponge Bob wrote:

In the midlands ????? Nahhhh!

Surprisingly enough there actually are some companies operating in the midlands. Its not all just commuter housing along the N4.
Anyhow, point was that if you're 100 km outside Dublin along the N4, you would have an easier commute to Galway.

Sponge Bob wrote:

And there is no proper broadband for telecommuters either. Once you are in a rural area 10 miles from Dublin, or further, you have no broadband and cannot telecommute.

OK I'll bite, though I know I'm going to regret it, what is your definition of 'proper' broadband?

Sponge Bob

Gurgle wrote:

And thats relevant to what?

Surprisingly enough there actually are some companies operating in the midlands. Its not all just commuter housing along the N4.
Anyhow, point was that if you're 100 km outside Dublin along the N4, you would have an easier commute to Galway.

You will equally be tolled west of Ballinasloe. These commuters will have to pay €5 every working day to get to work and back ....over and above those who can do the same sort of run for free from Arklow or Monasterevin. The cost of paying the toll for a mullingar person for 200 working days a year is €1000 a year, quite a lot.

OK I'll bite, though I know I'm going to regret it, what is your definition of 'proper' broadband?

Something like 3mbit down and 256k up to run a proper VPN and access what you need from your office etc. 3mbit BB is only available up to about 2 miles from an enabled exchange or from Digwieb metro. If you are outside that coverage it all gets rather unusable. VPN over a 3g datacard is cruel , forget about it.

Now if I had my DSL in Gorey or Arklow I could choose to commute with no toll or to telecommute or to do both and miss the rush hour traffic .....and not pay a toll

Somebody who lives in Cavan will have to pay 2 tolls to reach Dublin on the new N3 €10 a day or €2000 a year. Equally I will pay 2 tolls from North Tipp or South Offaly . It all adds up.

If I live in rural east Cavan I will have no usable broadband and 2 tolls between me an Dublin. Feck that mallarkey

Calina

SpongeBob, the fact that the infrastructure isn't there does not change the fact that a lot of people would prefer to work closer to home. It just means they can't. Not that they don't want to.

Gurgle, with respect to broadband: Our comms infrastructure is hilariously bad and hilariously expensive. I spend a great deal of time in Paris and 20E less than what I pay for 2MB/line rental/off peak calls only in Dublin will get me 18MB/line rental/basic cable television/unlimited fixed lines call in France. That's France Telecom versus Eircom, ie incumbant former state monopoly compared with incumbant former state monopoly. I didn't have to look too hard for that, right?

With respect to future housing issues in Ireland, the other problem, of course, is that quite a lot of newly built property in the Dublin area is built with short term profit in mind rather than utility value of housing. We've a lot of small apartments that are not long term options for anyone.

soma

Gurgle wrote:

I'd say for every one person hoping to move back to Dublin to be closer to their job, theres probably 5 people looking for jobs closer to their homes.

Gurgle this is very true. I've often toyed with the idea of starting an IT company and basing it in the commuter belt or midlands for this reason.

But just like the multinationals are starting to realise, I've done my sums and the cost of doing business here is just too prohibitive.

Sponge Bob

Calina wrote:

SpongeBob, the fact that the infrastructure isn't there does not change the fact that a lot of people would prefer to work closer to home. It just means they can't. Not that they don't want to.

But my dear chap. I would not call Cavan "commuter belt" if there were jobs out there Were there jobs locally there would be no real commuting going on.

My point is that many roads being built or built will trap certain persons out beyond a toll plaza. That will impact prices. Tolls are there on every decent road to the north and west of Dublin but are not as big a problem in Kildare or in Wicklow or Wexford.

That will have an impact on prices, it has to.

Gurgle

Sponge Bob wrote:

You will equally be tolled west of Ballinasloe. These commuters will have to pay €5 every working day to get to work and back ....over and above those who can do the same sort of run for free from Arklow or Monasterevin. The cost of paying the toll for a mullingar person for 200 working days a year is €1000 a year, quite a lot.

But if it saves you €1000 a month on your mortgage....

Sponge Bob wrote:

3mbit BB is only available up to about 2 miles from an enabled exchange or from Digwieb metro. If you are outside that coverage it all gets rather unusable....
If I live in rural east Cavan I will have no usable broadband and 2 tolls between me an Dublin. Feck that mallarkey

Sponge Bob wrote:

Once you are in a rural area 10 miles from Dublin, or further, you have no broadband and cannot telecommute.

Do I need to point out that there are a couple of enabled exchanges more than 10 miles from Dublin?
Check here

Sponge Bob

Exchanges in Ireland are spaced out 8-10 miles apart and each services out to 4-5 miles , decent DSL works out to 2 miles from the exchange .

Those living between 2 and 5 miles from the exchange are the ones in a spot of bother. Mind you some commuters feel they can a) save €1000 a month on the mortgage, b) replace the rabbit with a pony and c) cheat the laws of physics as well

Gurgle

soma wrote:

Gurgle this is very true. I've often toyed with the idea of starting an IT company and basing it in the commuter belt or midlands for this reason.

But just like the multinationals are starting to realise, I've done my sums and the cost of doing business here is just too prohibitive.

Depends on what your business entails.

IT is a very dodgy game to get into at this stage. I think theres as many companies as the market can support, and many of them are very poorly run.

Do-more

Just so the Cork people don't feel left out, I was talking to a guy today who reckoned the days are numbered for the 2,500 jobs in Apple aswell. Once the dominos start to fall, it looks like it will be a real blood bath!

Kipperhell

Gurgle wrote:

But if it saves you €1000 a month on your mortgage....

and cost an extra hour each way in a commute, more sturdy car, more fuel etc...
It is false economy to say it is saving €1000 a month. An extra 40 hours a month is is worth a lot more to me. Some people have no choice but some people think this is something to brag about as a smart decision.
It is simply an unfortunate result of people's desire to own. You can complain about the failure of government planning but personal reponsibity and choice have to be considered. People are living beyond their means and needs.
More cars on the road for longer effects us all and petrol is going up in price in the long run.
Do you really think the children of today are going to be well behaved in ares with no iminities and little supervision (both parents work to pay the mortgage).

Things aren't look good for the amazing savings or the future of such areas. I feel sorry for those with no choice but not so sorry for those who chose "more for their money". Short sighted thinking from people who claim to be acting smart.

Zambia

Kipperhell wrote:

and cost an extra hour each way in a commute, more sturdy car, more fuel etc...
It is false economy to say it is saving €1000 a month. An extra 40 hours a month is is worth a lot more to me. Some people have no choice but some people think this is something to brag about as a smart decision.
It is simply an unfortunate result of people's desire to own. You can complain about the failure of government planning but personal reponsibity and choice have to be considered. People are living beyond their means and needs.
More cars on the road for longer effects us all and petrol is going up in price in the long run.
Do you really think the children of today are going to be well behaved in ares with no iminities and little supervision (both parents work to pay the mortgage).

Things aren't look good for the amazing savings or the future of such areas. I feel sorry for those with no choice but not so sorry for those who chose "more for their money". Short sighted thinking from people who claim to be acting smart.

Have to give it to Kipperhell here ,I lived in Dublin and spent ages getting to work , leaving at the very least 07.45 am. I spent a fortune on petrol , any car I had seemed to keep needing repair. here was nothing really in walking distance of me. I would put the monthly bill not as high as 1000 but close to 600 not including car re-payments.

Oh and i will never get back the time spent some mornings on the navan rd (If you close your eyes you can hear chris reyes road to hell)

Smoggy

I saw 10+ Remax agents down in my local shopping center, they had a stand setup showing all their houses / appartments. I have NEVER seen this before. It has to mean something that a year ago + these guys had work coming out of thier ears and now they are standing in my shopping center pimping their wares.

SimpleSam06

Did anyone else see that giant poster up at Connelly DART station there? It was Bertie and the cronies chortling and under that in massive print "WALL OF BULL". I think it was an ad for a newspaper or something. Bit of a double entendre ha?

CiaranC

Gurgle wrote:

Depends on what your business entails.

IT is a very dodgy game to get into at this stage. I think theres as many companies as the market can support, and many of them are very poorly run.

So you think its back to paper and pencils if theres a downturn in the ecomony then?

Knowledge based IT services and solutions is one of the most secure industries in the western world.

mad m

Smoggy wrote:

I saw 10+ Remax agents down in my local shopping center, they had a stand setup showing all their houses / appartments. I have NEVER seen this before. It has to mean something that a year ago + these guys had work coming out of thier ears and now they are standing in my shopping center pimping their wares.

Give me the name of that shopping centre,I have some rotten veg&fruit I want to throw at something.:D

miju

CiaranC wrote:

Knowledge based IT services and solutions is one of the most secure industries in the western world.

not neccarily true , while it is true that companys will still require IT services , in any kind of economic slowdown they will reign in discretionary spending on the likes of IT infrastructure and so on

Gurgle

CiaranC wrote:

So you think its back to paper and pencils if theres a downturn in the ecomony then?

Knowledge based IT services and solutions is one of the most secure industries in the western world.

The industry is 100% secure, and will continue to grow worldwide for at least another century.

But theres a lot of big players in it - individual companies rise and fall like flys.

Kipperhell wrote:

and cost an extra hour each way in a commute, more sturdy car, more fuel etc...

My point was lost somewhere along the way. Compared to living and working in Dublin, you can move down the country and find a job nearer your home.

http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/index.php?showtopic=14372

take a peek at the above

Smoggy

"The Family
The committee's current study"

Whats that got to do with the housing bubble ?