Housing Bubble Bursting

Kipperhell

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

You are correct 9-11 was not the reason house prices rose here, it was simply used as a cover by the Greenspan Federal reserve to drop interest rates further due to the deflationary effects of the dot com bust in 2000. The banks (Citigroup et al) are still sitting on bad loans from that period, that are being held off balance sheet in SIV's. The ECB panicked and followed them down.

I don't believe it was cover up and it smacks of conspiracy theory to suggest otherwise.

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

During the boom here if you look at the RTE news reports from the period 2001 early 2006 they always lead with the rising prices, the queues of young couples waiting to buy into developments, the record prices achieved at auction, they never mentioned that prices will go down until the boom was over. When they mentioned an end to the boom it was to say that prices would achieve a "soft landing". At the time they defined a soft landing as prices rising in line with CPI. No mainstream economist that worked for the banks, estate agents or ESRI entertained the possibility of a recession or that house prices would fall

They report on the fact prices were rising and they also reported that a crash may happen for a long period of time prior to anything actually happening. I stick by the fact. Post up a report that claimed prices would continuously rise. I am talking about news/current affais reports and not vested interest groups

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

What happens in the US directly impacts Ireland, it was US multinationals who kicked off the boom here in the late 90's. etc...

I think you will find that is not a direct link but an indirect link.

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

Secondly the availability of cheap and easy credit was the primary driver (by far) for rising house prices in Ireland. It was the reason old banking rules based on income multiples were discarded, it was the reason 100% mortgages were made available, it was the reason for sub-prime companies to setup in Ireland. Without cheap credit there would have been no bubble.

It was a factor along with the age of the population and employment levels. To state simplistic views is a easy way to avoid facts. Name the sub-prime companies set-up here and what percentage of mortgages are 100%. Very few people qualify for the 100% mortgages and fewer took them up AFAIK. Just because they were available didn't mean everybody got them or took them. We effectively don't have what they call sub-prime in Ireland in the same way they do in the US.

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

The current credit crisis started in the US, their housing boom topped out in mid 2005, they raised interest rates, the ECB followed. We started to feel the effects of this on house prices with about an 8 month time lag.

Nobody said things would remain as they were. There were optimistic views but nobody said it would stay the way it was. Post up articles saying it would.

SimpleSam06 wrote:

Ha, you haven't been hanging around here much then. "You can't lose on property" has been the mantra for years

That is not the same as saying they will go up for ever. I have been here long enough to know that nobody really said you can't lose but many people have been predicting the crash year on year and would eventually be proven "right". Their majority of these predictions were wrong but having an open ended argument is any easy way to be "right"

SimpleSam06

Kipperhell wrote: »

That is not the same as saying they will go up for ever. I have been here long enough to know that nobody really said you can't lose but many people have been predicting the crash year on year and would eventually be proven "right". Their majority of these predictions were wrong but having an open ended argument is any easy way to be "right"

I won't hunt down the specific quotes for you, but there were a lot of people who were saying that property prices would never fall, even up to recently with talk of a "soft landing". Those speaking of a crash of any sort were ridiculed and called "doom mongers".

And now, with your 20/20 hindsight you're sitting there on your johnny-come-lately chair telling us that any fool could have seen a crash coming.

Brilliant.

Kipperhell

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

I won't hunt down the specific quotes for you, but there were a lot of people who were saying that property prices would never fall, even up to recently with talk of a "soft landing". Those speaking of a crash of any sort were ridiculed and called "doom mongers".

I think you are lying to me and yourself. You might find one or two people who were saying NEVER but the lot of people you are talking about didn't exist. You just happen to misread things as you did when you you changed what I said to "You can't loose with property"

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

And now, with your 20/20 hindsight you're sitting there on your johnny-come-lately chair telling us that any fool could have seen a crash coming.

Brilliant.

LOL
I 'm so sorry just because you have been here longer than me you are right and I don't know anything. The 20/20 hindsight you think I am using is so laughable. There have been people here predicting the a crash year on year you want to deny that go ahead. They were wrong and now prices have dropped doesn't make them right as a broken clock tells the right time twice a day.
Lets keep it straight that is a personal attack because you feel somewhat superior to me keep on the point

Calina

If house prices had risen in a rational manner over the past five years, there would not be a crash coming, along with its wider ramifications

This is the point that people seem to be missing. Saying that it was obvious "it couldn't go on" is fallacious because it shouldn't have started in the first place.

The issue now is not whether there will be a crash - because for five years people have been denying that there would be, but here we are with price falls in excess of 15% in some - Dublin-proximate areas - but what the extent of that crash will be and how it will affect the wider economy.

SimpleSam06

Kipperhell wrote: »

I think you are lying to me and yourself. You might find one or two people who were saying NEVER but the lot of people you are talking about didn't exist.

Pay attention to this. This is what can be expected from a lot of people after years of property porn, frenzied buying, queueing from midnight for viewings, and staggering amounts of money changing hands. I mean look at this, first of all no one was saying that property would go down, and those who were saying it were muppets anyway.

"Sure it was obvious".

Kipperhell wrote: »

I 'm so sorry just because you have been here longer than me you are right and I don't know anything. The 20/20 hindsight you think I am using is so laughable. There have been people here predicting the a crash year on year you want to deny that go ahead. They were wrong and now prices have dropped doesn't make them right as a broken clock tells the right time twice a day.
Lets keep it straight that is a personal attack because you feel somewhat superior to me keep on the point

To be honest I really don't care what you think. I'm trying to work out what if any effect this potentially large sentiment will have on the market. Is this the resignation stage of the cycle?

Kipperhell

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

To be honest I really don't care what you think. I'm trying to work out what if any effect this potentially large sentiment will have on the market. Is this the resignation stage of the cycle?

ROLF
So you want to take part in an open discussion where your opinion is always considered right Don't bother posting then. Simple

Your response to nobody thought prices would keep on going up just avoids the whole thing by stating how people were buying houses. It doesn't indicate people thought the prices would forever go up. When people queue to buy anything they don't think the item will keep going up in price. You seem unable to make a rational argument. Not need to reply as you think little of my opinion.:p

SimpleSam06

Kipperhell wrote: »

Not need to reply as you think little of my opinion.:p

Look, I'm not saying you're a lab rat running around in a psychological maze set up by the regulars around here, providing answers for various theories in a model of the larger society or anything...

<_<

>_>

ionapaul

I think we all knew many of the 'property is a sure fire bet', 'you can't lose with property' people at the height of the mania 18 months ago and earlier, there are simply much fewer of these types of people around now. And yes, if you go back to the very beginning of this thread there are those who thought that there was no bubble, that prices reflected fair value and that prices would not decline in the short (less than 5 year) term, let alone by as much as they are at present. They thought that after years of double digit growth the slowdown would simply be a few years of growth tracking inflation, before it all kicked off again. There are still many in Ireland who think the current 'softening' in prices is a very temporary blip on the Irish property market's onward march into the stratosphere!

miju

my favorite quote in all 100 pages of this thread still is "you can't tell it's a bubble until after the bubble has popped

Kipperhell

miju wrote: »

my favorite quote in all 100 pages of this thread still is "you can't tell it's a bubble until after the bubble has popped

It is still true

whizzbang

miju wrote: »

my favorite quote in all 100 pages of this thread still is "you can't tell it's a bubble until after the bubble has popped

What ever did happen to FillSpectre/MorningStar? doesn't seem to be posting much these days

SimpleSam06

whizzbang wrote: »

What ever did happen to FillSpectre/MorningStar? doesn't seem to be posting much these days

I still miss Sizzler. His name reminded me of sausages.

I like sausages.

miju

Kipperhell wrote: »

It is still true

i disagree but really dont want to get into discussing that one again

BobbyD10

gurramok wrote: »

Regarding rates, alot of people pre '07 got 2 yr fixed dirt cheap rates(early '06 and before that, obtained around 3% mark) and they are resetting to 4.75%+ now and in the new year and onwards. (5yr fixed ones are resetting from '03 in the new yr as well)
Considering a fair few would have had interest only mortgages, thats another bunch who will find the tough going to service that mortgage(s).

From 3% odd to fixed rates of 5%+ tis a big difference, depending on outstanding balance of course.

SkepticOne

Kipperhell wrote: »

That is not the same as saying they will go up for ever. I have been here long enough to know that nobody really said you can't lose but many people have been predicting the crash year on year and would eventually be proven "right". Their majority of these predictions were wrong but having an open ended argument is any easy way to be "right"

Interestingly, the fact that there had been people predicting a crash for some time (correctly as it turns out) was often used by people to argue that there would not be a crash!.

"Oh you lot have been saying that for years but where's the crash?!?" etc.

The general view I found in conversation with people was that growth was something fundamental to house prices. Generally, they believed houses prices rose unless there was some catastrophic external factor. Things like higher interest rates, unless they were extremely high (e.g 15%), would merely lead to a moderation of this growth. The idea that shrinkage might happen did not seem to occur to people.

It was an unspoken assumption that prices would generally rise and investors were happy to take minuscule yields as capital appreciation (in their view) was so great and likely to continue.

The other interesting thing is that people forgot that they themselves set prices. Many people seemed to believe that prices could rise to the extent that no one could afford them. This is why when interest rates were rising people rushed to qualify for a mortgage. It is fairly obvious there's a bubble when you see this sort of behaviour.

The fact of falling prices means that these views are rare these days. Other forms of delusion are taking over.

Pa ElGrande

Kipperhell wrote: »

I don't believe it was cover up and it smacks of conspiracy theory to suggest otherwise.

It was called the Greenspan Put, meaning, every time the USA had a potential financial meltdown, Greenspan flooded liquidity into the markets, bailing out the overextended investors. The one thing Central Banks fear is deflation, they have no idea how to handle such a situation, so they focus on inflation, this is the ECB's remit. After the 2000 dot com crash, Alan Greenspan had already cut interest rates substantially, but all the data he was getting still suggested deflation, the conundrum was how to cut interest rates further without substantially weakening the value of the dollar. 9/11 happened and he used the opportunity to cut rates and their president Bush encouraged Americans to spend, the real reason behind their actions was to prevent deflation taking hold after the dot com bust, just like happened to Japan in 1990. Fast forward to today this is what the central banks are doing right now, trying to prevent deflation and extricate themselves from the liquidity trap.
There is no conspiracy, September 9/11 is just a good story spun by the media to explain away the utra-low interest rates, its a lot easier and better for viewer ratings than tackling a boring subject like monetarism and how the value of people's savings is constantly eroded by inflation.

Kipperhell wrote: »

They report on the fact prices were rising and they also reported that a crash may happen for a long period of time prior to anything actually happening. I stick by the fact. Post up a report that claimed prices would continuously rise. I am talking about news/current affairs reports and not vested interest groups

Here you go, no mention of house price falls, only that it would all end in a 'soft landing' and note John Hurley specifically defines a soft landing.

2006: Talks on tightening banks' lending rules

In comments accompanying the report, Governor John Hurley welcomed recent signs that the rate of house price growth was easing, having accelerated following the bank's previous stability report last year. He said the bank would be concerned if prices started rising sharply again.
Mr Hurley said a study by the bank had estimated that house prices were overvalued by around 14%, but this did not necessarily mean house prices would fall. He said a soft landing - a period of low and stable house price inflation - was still the most likely outcome.

2006: Ireland is second in wealth league

A decade of house price inflation has catapulted Ireland into second place in the global wealth league, according to a new report from Bank of Ireland Private Banking.
The report published today shows that when the value of housing is taken into account Ireland's privately owned assets are now worth an average of €150,000 for every man, woman and child in the country. The report says that the bulk of this wealth has been created in the past decade alone.

2005: House prices set to rise: AIB report

AIB Global Treasury says it expects close to 77,000 homes a year to be built until 2008. This is similar to last year's record level.
It adds that annual house price inflation should stay at a relatively high 7% in the same period. This compares with the bank's previous prediction of a slowdown to 2% growth by the end of 2006.
AIB cites exceptionally strong demand, particularly from first time buyers, and strong population growth as factors in the continuing strength of the housing market. 'The soft landing to price stability that we envisaged in our last report could be postponed until 2008,' it says.

2004: Report predicts property 'soft landing'

AIB Global Treasury said that while house price inflation was still high, the trend was downwards, and growth should be down to just 10% by the end of the year.
The report concluded that there could be a 'soft landing' for the housing market, and it was optimistic a crash could be avoided, but it warned that there were still risks.
AIB cited the record level of house completions - 80,000 this year and a similar figure next year - saying supply at these levels 'cannot be absorbed indefinitely'. But the report said the building industry would respond to easing demand by slowing activity.
AIB said it would take one or two other factors - a deterioration in the labour market or a sharp rise in interest rates - to cause a housing market crash, adding that neither seemed likely in the short term.

Kipperhell wrote: »

I think you will find that is not a direct link but an indirect link.

I work for a US multi-national, decision's taken at company headquarters directly impact me and thousands of other workers in this country. I'd say that's about as direct a link as you can get.

Kipperhell wrote: »

It was a factor along with the age of the population and employment levels. To state simplistic views is a easy way to avoid facts. Name the sub-prime companies set-up here and what percentage of mortgages are 100%. Very few people qualify for the 100% mortgages and fewer took them up AFAIK. Just because they were available didn't mean everybody got them or took them. We effectively don't have what they call sub-prime in Ireland in the same way they do in the US.

It really is that simple, cheap and easy credit is the cause of all asset bubbles. Other factors such as employment levels and age of the population do not explain the house price levels reached between 2001 to 2006. Perhaps you could take the time to explain how solid the fundamentals really are here in 2007 Ireland?

Subprime only got to about 4% of the market in Ireland and was poised for major growth at the start of 2007 with mainstream Irish lenders forming partnerships with some of the following companies - Start, GE, Second Chance, IFG, Springboard, Britannia, Stepstone, Rossbank. Subprime in Ireland is only an issue for those up before the high court.

Question for you: How do you plan to cope with the forthcoming Irish banking crisis?

Number of 100% mortgages decreases - July 10, 2007

The Government published figures yesterday, in the Annual Housing Statistics Bulletin 2006, showing 36% of first-time buyers in 2006 took out 100% mortgages. However, the Irish Mortgage Corporation said that was out of date and the figure dropped to less than 24% in its latest survey.

Don't know about you but I'd say (14,000) 36% of FTB's in 2006 taking out 100% loans was significant.

Kipperhell wrote: »

Nobody said things would remain as they were. There were optimistic views but nobody said it would stay the way it was. Post up articles saying it would.

Everybody was sold on the idea of a 'soft landing' and John Hurley has clearly explained the soft landing theory which precludes house price falls, so if you believe the governor of the Central Bank is right, then your money is safe in Irish banks.

SparkyLarks

saying prices have to fall sometime will always be correct,
just now saying house prices will rise. they will.

Just like the frenzied buying we say over the last 10 years, which was resonable for people to do, as prices were rising so quickly they feared if they didn;t get on the property ladder the they never would, that in itself fueled the rising prices

Of course at the moment we have a lot of people waiting for prices to bottom out before they but that slowing the marked down in inself is droping prices are these people going to buy ever. A lot of them will buy when prices are on the way back up.

The stock market does the same thing periodically. The good investors tend to buy on the way down and sell on the way up. Of course those good investors anre known and watched and often others to buy/sell.

However the thing missed by a lot of people here is that it may be a good time for some peoplel to buy, but you have to buy a house you want to live in for 10 years,
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10/business/2007_BUYRENT_GRAPHIC.html?_r=3&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

Economoics cycles tend to be 5 years, prices botomed out in London 3 years after the crash.

Economics is guesswork, noone knows what will happen just can guess what is most likely. No need to plaud yourself if you get it right or feel too bad if you get it wrong.

The question shouldn't be how low are we going to go( INMHO ther is a lot of that on this forum). But rather what can we do to stop our economy going down the toilet. That will help noone. I've said it before, mst people couldn;t buy houses here in the 80's nbot because prices were so high but because they couldn;t work here.

SkepticOne

SparkyLarks wrote: »

The question shouldn't be how low are we going to go( INMHO ther is a lot of that on this forum). But rather what can we do to stop our economy going down the toilet. That will help noone. I've said it before, mst people couldn;t buy houses here in the 80's nbot because prices were so high but because they couldn;t work here.

I feel that we've taken the first step to fixing our economy. We are no longer paying higher and higher prices for our homes and prices have started to come down. Eventually prices will return to their normal values and the process of building a sustainable economy will begin. My fear is that the government will spend billions of tax payers' money trying to prop thing up, a process that will merely drag out the necessary adjustment and cause far more harm in the long run.

Kipperhell

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

There is no conspiracy, September 9/11 is just a good story spun by the media to explain away the utra-low interest rates, its a lot easier and better for viewer ratings than tackling a boring subject like monetarism and how the value of people's savings is constantly eroded by inflation.

So the media are covering up the real reason and using the convenient cover of 9/11 is what you claim. That is a conspiracy theory

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

Here you go, no mention of house price falls, only that it would all end in a 'soft landing' and note John Hurley specifically defines a soft landing.

Not a single report you posted said prices would continuously go up as I said. You went to all that effort on but you couldn't find a report, as I thought, saying prices would go up for ever. Many economists would say that what is currently happening is a soft landing. I remember the predictions of 50-80% drop within a year which would be a crash. It is certain what has happened is not the same as the crashes that happened in the UK or in Japan.

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

I work for a US multi-national, decision's taken at company headquarters directly impact me and thousands of other workers in this country. I'd say that's about as direct a link as you can get.

A direct impact on you does not mean a direct impact on the entire country.

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

It really is that simple, cheap and easy credit is the cause of all asset bubbles. Other factors such as employment levels and age of the population do not explain the house price levels reached between 2001 to 2006. Perhaps you could take the time to explain how solid the fundamentals really are here in 2007 Ireland?

If you only believe one factor determines and entire market fine I don't and economists don't. The "fundamental" are only a theory applied on a market and aren't rules. No economist would say cheap credit was the only reason for house price rises in Ireland

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

Subprime only got to about 4% of the market in Ireland and was poised for major growth at the start of 2007 with mainstream Irish lenders forming partnerships with some of the following companies - Start, GE, Second Chance, IFG, Springboard, Britannia, Stepstone, Rossbank. Subprime in Ireland is only an issue for those up before the high court.

So the companies didn't set-up here but formed business partnerships. Any figures for how you got 4%? Please define your understanding of what sub-prime is in Ireland as it certainly isn't the same as the US.

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

Don't know about you but I'd say (14,000) 36% of FTB's in 2006 taking out 100% loans was significant.

I wouldn't consider it very high as a percentage of the overall market.

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

Everybody was sold on the idea of a 'soft landing' and John Hurley has clearly explained the soft landing theory which precludes house price falls, so if you believe the governor of the Central Bank is right, then your money is safe in Irish banks.

Most reports mentioned other people thought worse. The fact they mention that people were saying soft landing was possible suggests that all were saying that it could mean a crash.

I don't deny that people were being told a soft landing I just state it was balanced with what others were saying about a crash. Unlike the 4 Corners report that only predicts doom.

What ever you want to believe is fine and you will find people to agree with you here as they are now being proven "right" so are all happy with themselves. It doesn't make you or them right.

MrVostro

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

Ha, you haven't been hanging around here much then. "You can't lose on property" has been the mantra for years.

I've been reading this thread from the start over the last few days (it is a long one). And i can tell you that that quote was used almost exclusively by the bears in this threadtrying to tell everyone else what the bulls were saying, it was especially used by yourself. In fact i saw very very bulls saying that over this thread.

Back on topic though.
I believe we are in a bit of a downward spiral. Property and The economy also are on shaky ground.
If the general economy can hold up then most of us will still have jobs in a few years. If not, im afraid Ireland Inc is in trouble.

I myself will wait until i am convinced property prices are again in a solid place before buying. Perhaps when we are well into an upward trend.

Another thing i have noticed is Most of the Polish people who i got to know in my Job have a lot of friends who came heer to work on building sites. They tell me now that nearly all of their mates working in the building trade are gone home, at this stage. I even notice it on the bus in the mornings. I fear Dublin bus will have to reduce the number of buses in the mornings because the reduction in the amount of Eastern European builders on my bus have dropped so much.

Some of my family who need building work done and have not had it done because of the extortionate prices builders were chargeing are now getting calls from those same builders with quotes reduced by as much as 50%
. About time.

Now all this does not bode well for the building game right now, but its the way it goes. Property prices go up, they overshoot, they fall, they overshoot, they go up ....... and so on, over long periods.

I would like to buy my own house and hopefully i can buy it in the downward overshoot . But i wont be making any decisions until i am sure.


We were going to move just last week, because the rent here is going up, but decided not to.
Rents were much higher in the same area (suburbs) than we are paying where we live and it was like a rugby scrum to get in to see them. Then people were bidding up the prices on the spot trying to get in above everyone else. I asked one couple after a viewing and they said that they had been to 7 viewings in 7 days, had the money ready and had not got anywhere. So we have up at 4 viewings (it was a horrid experience) and decided to stay put.

All in all, i pray that the general Economy holds up (which i think it will, because we are not just a construction economy as some people believe) and that house prices fall for a while yet

But i do get the felling that people (myself and a lot of people i know included) are all set with the money sorted and waiting for the bottom of the market. They have made the decision to buy and are waiting for the best time. I do realize some will jump the gun probably and cause a little blip in the downward trend at first, so will wait to see how this plays out.

If house prices go down another couple of % i could even buy the house i am living in now for less than it would cost to rent at the moment
(unbelievable only a few years ago), so thats another factor. The waiting game is on ......

SimpleSam06

MrVostro wrote: »

I've been reading this thread from the start over the last few days (it is a long one). And i can tell you that that quote was used almost exclusively by the bears in this threadtrying to tell everyone else what the bulls were saying, it was especially used by yourself. In fact i saw very very bulls saying that over this thread.

I'm really not sure what you are trying to prove here. Are you making out that anybody could have seen a property crash coming, and there was no overblown confidence in the Irish market? Is making this assertion meant to give you credibility, or remove that of others?

Whatever about the dubious statement of you having read all of this thread, you definetely didn't read the last two or three threads (almost as large as this one), and in all probability aren't even aware of their existence. Looking back briefly over this thread, as it happens, I saw very few bulls posting, period.

So spare us the monday morning quarterbacking.

TCollins

Feck off back to your own desk Vostro.
Just because im not in the office doesnt mean i cant post here.

So no more posting from the office anymore. Ever.If you want to post on boards do it from home

A Random Walk

MrVostro wrote: »

I've been reading this thread from the start over the last few days (it is a long one). And i can tell you that that quote was used almost exclusively by the bears in this threadtrying to tell everyone else what the bulls were saying, it was especially used by yourself. In fact i saw very very bulls saying that over this thread.

Why are you cluttering up this fine thread with this historical revisionism? We've spent the past 5 years listening to the "property is a sure thing" merchants peddle their wares, don't turn around now and deny it ever happened. It has all been archived and as many previously respected economic commentators are now finding out there is no hiding place from their previous predictions.

Pa ElGrande

Kipperhell wrote: »

So the media are covering up the real reason and using the convenient cover of 9/11 is what you claim. That is a conspiracy theory

You seem determined to find a conspiracy where there is none, never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

Kipperhell wrote: »

Not a single report you posted said prices would continuously go up as I said. You went to all that effort on but you couldn't find a report, as I thought, saying prices would go up for ever.

Ah, I get it, you are being pedantic and want to hear the specific phrase "house prices would go up forever". I defer you to John Hurley, the governor of the central bank who defined a soft landing as "a period of low and stable house price inflation". The key word is inflation, so even if prices rise by 0.1% they are continuously going up. So I'm correct, the news reports above from RTE do not say that prices would fall, they specifically say 'soft landing'.

Kipperhell wrote: »

Many economists would say that what is currently happening is a soft landing.

How many economists exactly? link them (if you can)

Kipperhell wrote: »

I remember the predictions of 50-80% drop within a year which would be a crash.

Who exactly made these predictions and were they talking about houses? (Post a link if you can)

Kipperhell wrote: »

It is certain what has happened is not the same as the crashes that happened in the UK or in Japan.

That's true, we speak with a different accent, the date and time are different, but the root cause is the same - cheap credit combined with easy lending terms.

Kipperhell wrote: »

A direct impact on you does not mean a direct impact on the entire country.

In fact it does. I get a pay rise, I pay more taxes, I use more services. It's called the multiplier effect. There are over 100,000 people employed in over 580 US companies here in Ireland.

Kipperhell wrote: »

If you only believe one factor determines and entire market fine I don't and economists don't. The "fundamental" are only a theory applied on a market and aren't rules. No economist would say cheap credit was the only reason for house price rises in Ireland

Read what I wrote again, that is not what I said.

Kipperhell wrote: »

So the companies didn't set-up here but formed business partnerships. Any figures for how you got 4%? Please define your understanding of what sub-prime is in Ireland as it certainly isn't the same as the US.

You got access to google, you can check out their web sites.

Kipperhell wrote: »

I wouldn't consider it very high as a percentage of the overall market.

That 36% was one year after launch of the 100% product. No data is available for the young couples who borrowed their deposit from other lenders such as credit unions or benefit in kind from their parents (some of whom borrowed it themselves using top-up mortgages)

Kipperhell wrote: »

What ever you want to believe is fine and you will find people to agree with you here as they are now being proven "right" so are all happy with themselves. It doesn't make you or them right.

We all make choices every day, that are either right or wrong.
Make the wrong choices and your freedom and liberty is undermined.

It is wrong that people should spend 30 years of their life commuting 4 hours every day to and from work.
It is wrong that people should sacrifice more and more of their future earnings to the property mania.
It is wrong that people should accept a declining standard of living due inflation.
It is right that house prices should fall.
It is right that the mania has ended.
It is right that people should highlight the tyranny of a debt based culture.

Kipperhell

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

We all make choices every day, that are either right or wrong.
Make the wrong choices and your freedom and liberty is undermined.

It is wrong that people should spend 30 years of their life commuting 4 hours every day to and from work.
It is wrong that people should sacrifice more and more of their future earnings to the property mania.
It is wrong that people should accept a declining standard of living due inflation.
It is right that house prices should fall.
It is right that the mania has ended.
It is right that people should highlight the tyranny of a debt based culture.

Well with logic like that I must bow to your great wisdom:rolleyes: Thanks for letting me know how you know right and wrong. It put my mind at rest. This is obviously a well balanced argument and there are no doom mongers with vested concerns who are praying for some kind of comeuppance to people who bought property when they couldn't. You have proved your point perfectly and by no means highlighted a bias;)

I won't bother interrupting this thread again you have serious work to do

Pa ElGrande

Kipperhell wrote: »

This is obviously a well balanced argument and there are no doom mongers with vested concerns who are praying for some kind of comeuppance to people who bought property when they couldn't.

That tired old "you're just jealous 'cos you didn't buy a house" cliche from the bulls again. When will they ever learn. :rolleyes:

Kipperhell wrote: »

I won't bother interrupting this thread again you have serious work to do

Aw it was just getting interesting. Viva la Revolución!

SimpleSam06

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

It is wrong that people should spend 30 years of their life commuting 4 hours every day to and from work.
It is wrong that people should sacrifice more and more of their future earnings to the property mania.
It is wrong that people should accept a declining standard of living due inflation.
It is right that house prices should fall.
It is right that the mania has ended.
It is right that people should highlight the tyranny of a debt based culture.

Well said Pa, if bertie ever slips up you can have your Ghandi suit back and my vote for taoiseach.

D'Peoples Voice

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

We all make choices every day, that are either right or wrong.
Make the wrong choices and your freedom and liberty is undermined.

It is wrong that people should spend 30 years of their life commuting 4 hours every day to and from work.
It is wrong that people should sacrifice more and more of their future earnings to the property mania.
It is wrong that people should accept a declining standard of living due inflation.
It is right that house prices should fall.
It is right that the mania has ended.
It is right that people should highlight the tyranny of a debt based culture.

Well is it right that people are so unpatriotic to the point where,
they hold off buying houses at prices that are unrealistic and unaffordable,
and would have them in negative equity for years.
As Bertie says these people make him sick! Now is the time to buy, and just think every house you buy, you are donating some of the tax collected to pay for Bertie's salary increase next year.
So put your country first for once and be patriotic!

Pa ElGrande

D'Peoples Voice wrote: »

So put your country first for once and be patriotic!

Who was it said "patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel", they had a point.

Do-more

Well at least the US can rest easy now!;)

President George W. Bush warned “it will take a while to get through the housing bubble” but reassured Americans “we have got a strategy”.

Link