Housing Bubble Bursting

Gurgle

Sponge Bob wrote:

Depends on where. There should be €100k houses around where local wages and earnings and economic conditions dictate it be so. Your scenario would indeed apply if the €100k house ever appeared in Dublin again .

I consider that latter scenario to be most unlikely , ever.

Here you go.

Nevyn

Gurgle wrote:

Ah, but Dundalk is in 'down the country somewhere'-land, and as we all know the 'Irish Housing Market' refers only to houses within 10 miles of the M50.

Dundalk like Gorey is with the 1 hour commute on the train or a little more then that by private bus so it is seen as being with in the Dublin area despite being two countys away just like Gorey.

Sponge Bob

Gurgle wrote:

Here you go.

A fine selection of (generally) MIDLANDS (generally) fixer upper property Gurgle bar this one you kindly selected for me

The midlands will soon have plenty of choice the buyer at max €100k and no fixing up required.

jd

Thaedydal wrote:

Dundalk like Gorey is with the 1 hour commute on the train or a little more then that by private bus so it is seen as being with in the Dublin area despite being two countys away just like Gorey.

Gorey is NOT a 1 hour commute by train to Dublin.


Gorey
Dublin Connolly
25/01
06:00
07:57

0
Railcar

Gorey
Dublin Connolly
25/01
06:45
08:51

0
Railcar


BTW even the Draft Co Wexford Development Plan recognises commuting between Gorey and Dublin as unsustainable.

http://www.wexford.ie/wex/Departments/Planning/DevelopmentPlans/DraftDevelopmentPlan2007-2013/

Sponge Bob

Its only a one hour commute to Loughlinstown or Shankill at 1am so the estate agent was right

jesus_thats_gre

Gurgle wrote:

Actually, 265k is not a bad price for that house. It appears to be a decent sized 2 bed, and its in Blackrock, not some shady council estate in Dundalk itself.

Look for a similar house in a decent area in Dublin, you can start at double the price.

It says its Blackrock but its alot closer to the council estate that consumes half of that side of town. In fact, the only thing seperating them is the Ice Dome and the JJB Soccerdome.

No way in hell are they worth that money.

Zambia

Oh my god....

I humbly stand corrected...

Yes sorry I would say the 100K house in Dublin would require a full mobilisisation of the FCA/RDF. I really mean somewhere where you can get a job in essence.

I forgot about the mass of property in Roscommon.

Do-more

Was in Tullamore today andheard that one new estate off Collins lane is being offered with €17K of allowances, in an effort to shift some units!

Also heard from an Home heating oil truck driver that it's scary the number of people getting deliveries of just €100 worth of kero! Some people are threading a very fine line, many of them in big houses!

miju

could anyone offer an explanation as to why some developers were offering their landbanks in order to "help" the government with affordable housing?

l3rian

is http://daftwatch.atspace.com down?

Zambia

l3rian wrote:

is http://daftwatch.atspace.com down?

and right back up again

Folks I have to ask what about myhome.ie is there any watch on that ? I never had my property near Daft.

whizzbang

There is no equivalent for myhome as the site isn't as easy to monitor as daft unfortunately! I'm sure it is possible but it would take quite a bit more work!

SkepticOne

miju wrote:

could anyone offer an explanation as to why some developers were offering their landbanks in order to "help" the government with affordable housing?

Because who else is going to buy the land? They will be lobbying to get some of this 21 billion money. The Government can help prop up prices by buying up landbanks thereby preventing it from being dumped on the open market.

SkepticOne

SkepticOne wrote:

The Government can help prop up prices by buying up landbanks thereby preventing it from being dumped on the open market.

In other words - use our money to keep us paying higher prices than we should in a free market.
The developer is also trying to ensure he has a buyer in a crashing market. He suggested a joint scheme involving his land and neighbouring public land. I want to know if his land is land locked or not.
This is not some altruistic move by the developer - I heard newstalk yesterday saying how great this was.
Dont forget this will ruin any chances people have of trading up (people who bought further out from Dublin) as he would be able to undercut them all in price. Negative Equity will rule. Some people will be trapped.

The_Conductor

miju wrote:

could anyone offer an explanation as to why some developers were offering their landbanks in order to "help" the government with affordable housing?

In recognition of the fact that the market has peaked and they have no manner of developing the land in question before a downturn occurs. In many cases this land may be fully serviced land- possibly land which previously had onerous planning conditions attached to it (in the eyes of the potential developer that is). Its far better for developers to clear any potential liabilities with inflated assets now, than wait to see what happens down the road and risk being out of pocket for their troubles (totally ignoring the silly prices many developers paid farmers and other land owners for their landbanks in the first place- in most cases with borrowed money which is now incurring higher interest repayments than previously).

Its a simple case of dump and run- get the maximum possible price for their assets, in many cases this price may be in lieu of deferred tax demands.

Developers are human too- they want to maximise their potential market gain while minimising their exposure to liabilities. In their eyes, and in the eyes of many councils and indeed central government, this is viewed as a win-win situation.

Keep in mind the concept of plausible deniability- 10 years down the road no-one is going to be worrying about what on earth people were thinking, times will have moved on and people's worries with them. More likely we may be worrying about how to pay yet more bills as a result of yet more botched privatisations (the gods only know.....)

I think I'm getting even more cynical in my old age......

Shane

gearoidmm

It's not monster, it's master

http://www.sing365.com/music/Lyric.nsf/Wuthering-heights-lyrics-Kate-Bush/67A6699B7CAE2C4D482569A0002E01D8

The_Conductor

Ye gods....
You're right though.
And rather bizzarely it also encapsulates this thread "My one dream, my only master"........ or monster- both equally apt.....

A little bit of resigging me thinks.....

DublinDilbert

Did anyone hear on the news this morning that the government bought up 500 houses in dublin in Nov/Dec '06 for €120M, to be use for affordable housing.. Apparently in some cases they've bought up entire housing estates from builders... ummm i wonder is there an election coming up?? The question is this an attempt by the government to buy the election or to prop up builders and a failing market??

I would imagine that 500 Extra houses available in dublin in the current climate could cause problems for the market.

SkepticOne

DublinDilbert wrote:

The question is this an attempt by the government to buy the election or to prop up builders and a failing market??

What news programme was this on?

DublinDilbert

It was on news-talk or todayFM ( can't remember which ).... Just to confirm i asked someone in work, and they had heard it too...

MLM

DublinDilbert wrote:

Did anyone hear on the news this morning that the government bought up 500 houses in dublin in Nov/Dec '06 for €120M, to be use for affordable housing.. Apparently in some cases they've bought up entire housing estates from builders... ummm i wonder is there an election coming up?? The question is this an attempt by the government to buy the election or to prop up builders and a failing market??

I would imagine that 500 Extra houses available in dublin in the current climate could cause problems for the market.

Wouldn't it be cheaper for them to build the houses themselves rather than having to pay builder's profit? They could built maybe up to 750 houses for 120 million rather than buying 500

Sponge Bob

Did I not say they would do this , sooner or later.

HashSlinging

linkage anyone..??

Miss Judy

what show was it???. Orla Barry or the breakfast show coz I listened to both today but did miss about 30 mins in between drop offs.
I would be very scepticle about anything the government would say at the moment pre-election bull and no evidence what so ever!!!!!:rolleyes:

soma

HashSlinging wrote:

linkage anyone..??

http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/ireland/2007/0129/1169680921809.html (registration required - I assume I am not allowed post the content here).

That's an absolutely horrible use of taxpayer money, straight into developer's pockets.

Paulw

http://www.unison.ie/breakingnews/index.php3?ca=9&si=105267

House prices across Ireland grew by 11.8% in 2006, according to figures published today by the ESRI and Permanent TSB.

ronbyrne2005

Paulw wrote:

http://www.unison.ie/breakingnews/index.php3?ca=9&si=105267

House prices across Ireland grew by 11.8% in 2006, according to figures published today by the ESRI and Permanent TSB.

Yeah but all that growth came in first 6months year and prices actuallly fell in real terms in november and december (due to inflation)

miju

i heard it was 16% growth

however, that "growth" was in the first 6 months or so of the year after which followed stalled prices and declines

mentalson

same thing has been going on in Cork. a developer had extreme difficulty shifting appartments in Atkins Hall in the old mental asylum. They were on the market for over a year. Cork City Council stepped in and bought 95 appartments at 250,000 euro each with taxpayers money, far more than they are getting on the open market. developer is delighted. This is the same Council that has for years refused to enforce Part V thereby saving developers millions.

SkepticOne

So much for buying at the bottom of the market for the benefit of the people as someone suggested would happen on this forum.

Instead, councils are buying at the very top in an attempt to prop up the market and keep developers happy. It won't succeed in propping up the market but lots of money that could be spent on worthwhile projects will be wasted.