Housing Bubble Bursting

The_Conductor

miju wrote:

the US accounts for a total of 4% of EU wide exports. though in Ireland that figure is at approx 20%

I'd be very interested to see his figures.
There would of course be a large element of undercalculation due to US subsidiaries based in the EU (such as Microsoft here) registering their sales as an Irish sale to elsewhere, rather than a US sale to elsewhere (before remitting cash home on an irregular basis via transfer pricing, to try to minimise their tax exposure).

You cannot forget that the US has been viewed as the "consumer of last resort" for the past 2 decades (which is partially why we are in the current mess that we're in).

It is very much the case that intra EU trade has exploded over the last few years- for example we sell almost as much produce to France as we do to our erstwhile single market- the UK. I would be most surprised to if this trade has managed to successfully misplace the continents once reliance on the States though.

Hmmm- wonder if I could shake some figures out of the guy? Which lecturer was it?

miju

smccarrick wrote: »

Hmmm- wonder if I could shake some figures out of the guy? Which lecturer was it?

it was Alan Ahearne of NUI Galway

gurramok

Irish house prices highest in Europe.

Surprise surprise, Ireland comes out top for highest house price in the EU27.

Here and the UK(Eng&Wales in this case) have the worst housing bubbles where we beat the UK on that mark!


http://ec.europa.eu/comm/competition/sectors/professional_services/studies/studies.html

Table V-3: Average House Prices, Estimated Legal Fees, Adjusted Prices

Avg. price for Estimated
res. house/ fee for
Country apartment av. price

Sweden 147,500 € 500 € 120.6% 25,479 € 415 € 462 €
Germany 130,863 € 886 € 104.1% 31,916 € 851 € 654 €
Finland 123,756 € 930 € 122.0% 25,006 € 762 € 876 €
Netherlands 202,000 € 1,122 € 105.2% 29,554 € 1,066 € 894 €
England/Wales 297,750 € 1,413 € 104.9% 33,688 € 1,347 € 988 €
Portugal 100,000 € 510 € 85.2% 12,086 € 599 € 995 €
Scotland 193,860 € 1,624 € 104.9% 33,688 € 1,548 € 1,135 €
Denmark 221,743 € 1,513 € 135.8% 31,202 € 1,114 € 1,142 €
Austria 150,000 € 1,567 € 102.9% 28,009 € 1,523 € 1,317 €
Spain 172,630 € 1,038 € 90.0% 18,004 € 1,153 € 1,358 €
Ireland 303,310 € 2,426 € 123.4% 32,233 € 1,966 € 1,773 €
Slovakia 100,000 € 420 € 57.6% 5,445 € 729 € 1,817 €
Belgium 167,000 € 2,475 € 104.3% 28,324 € 2,373 € 2,058 €
Slovenia 100,000 € 810 € 76.4% 8,901 € 1,060 € 2,143 €
France 226,630 € 2,711 € 108.5% 25,050 € 2,499 € 2,549 €
Czech Republic 100,000 € 850 € 57.8% 7,337 € 1,471 € 2,728 €
Italy 129,532 € 2,501 € 102.6% 19,636 € 2,438 € 3,000 €
Poland 100,000 € 677 € 59.6% 5,200 € 1,136 € 3,066 €
Greece 130,000 € 3,850 € 87.8% 17,140 € 4,385 € 5,290 €
Hungary 100,000 € 1,728 € 63.6% 5,848 € 2,717 € 6,959 €

average* 159,829 € 1,478 € 100% 23,550 € 1,558 € 2,060 €

seamus

gurramok wrote: »

Irish house prices highest in Europe.

Surprise surprise, Ireland comes out top for highest house price in the EU27.

Here and the UK(Eng&Wales in this case) have the worst housing bubbles where we beat the UK on that mark!

Quick comparison against GDP shows that yes we are high up, but perhaps not quite as badly off as the Brits.
The chart show each countries GDP and Avg. house price as a % of the EU average.

I don't have house price data for some countries, be interesting to see Luxembourg's :eek:
If anyone has them...

gurramok

Where is that chart and for which year?

Anyway, GNP rather than GDP is a real reflection on incomes here especially with MNC's forming a large chunk of the economy.

Is there a comparison chart for GNP and for which year?

The above report is for 2005 prices, me bad...didn't spot that, its got worse here and in UK since.

seamus

D'oh, then we're way off. The GDP is 2007 %'s.

I'll do some trawling.

karen3212

did anybody see Panorama the other night, where the buyers' solicitors are passing on the sale price to the Land Registry without subtracting the amount of any incentives given on said properties, therefore when surveyors value similar properties in the area the information they are using is false - higher value than the real amount paid.

The reporter also mentions that they are expecting 35% fall in prices - who knows on that.

Does anyone know what information valuers use here?

miju

karen3212 wrote: »

Does anyone know what information valuers use here?

scribble lots of random numbers on bits of paper, crumple them up and pick one out from a hat :D:D

SimpleSam06

And yet another sign of the ailing property market, a friend of mine put an advert in the paper the last day looking for some tradesmen, and got approximately one hundred and fifty calls on the day the newspaper came out, or one call every two or three minutes for eight hours. I wonder how many he would have gotten a year ago?

patrickolee

You must be delighted Sam :-)

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20080207-appeals-court-first-amendment-protects-forum-trolls-too.html

Victor

patrickolee wrote: »

You must be delighted Sam :-)

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20080207-appeals-court-first-amendment-protects-forum-trolls-too.html

On topic please.

gurramok

Do-more wrote: »

I see from my local rag that Rathgowan in Mullingar is being launched yet again. (I've lost count I'm not sure if this is the 3rd. or the 4th. launch)

They have dropped prices (for the second time I think) with 3 bed townhouses now priced at €199,950 (with free kitchen appliances). No prices published for the 3 bed semis.

IMO they are now approaching sensible money (I think €150,000 would be fair value).

Two more developments nearby (Cloon Lara and Greenpark West) are also currently (re-)launching with 3 bed semis priced at €275,000 which is still well wide of the mark IMO. (3 bed townhouses in Cloon Lara are €245,000!:eek:)

This i think will be interesting. Will we see the prospect of developers in commuter towns competing against each other to get buyers?
A developer has cut prices in Navan(Athlumley) also recently so the price cutting is starting to spread.

The recent half sale of Barnwell in D15 with 3beds at 300k and 2beds at 275k comes to mind.(their ads are on the back of buses now)

With inventory levels sky high, the message from Barnwell is that a new 3bed should no longer be priced above 300k anywhere passed that location which forces alot of housing past that location or anywhere in equal or more distance to Dublin to drop their prices to match(relative to distance) in order to compete.

As Barnwell is a half sold development with much further drops in price for a sell-out, the commuter towns will have to follow suit, its all relative as their market is mostly commuters and they want out if they can get out.

Fr0g

For a bit of light relief heres a good explanation of how the subprime mortgage disaster happened it's a 2.4 mb powerpoint presentation.

http://www.box.net/shared/cwnkt5y4gk

gurramok

Spotted this on the Pin, more Poles leaving UK than coming. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article3378877.ece

If this trend is happening here(i have noticed alot less (PL, LT, LV) reg cars around for example plus some foreign colleagues in work say some of their comrades are moving on), the rental market will plummet.

Now why should Ireland be more attractive than both Poland and UK for that Polish immigrant?

Victor

The Polish economy is improving. The more employable Polish people are going home and taking up those jobs.

Some apartments went on sale in Cavan / Monaghan for €150,000, houses from €250,000. Ads were on .........Dublin Bus.

punchestown

Can we stay on track here lads and stick to the main subject matter please?

Victor

Posts moved. http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055242854

DonJose

gurramok wrote: »

A developer has cut prices in Navan(Athlumley) also recently so the price cutting is starting to spread.

Is this the same developer who built Glenmore Wood in Mullingar opposite the Saab/Hyundai showroom. I drove there this week and half the houses are unsold/empty and 2 poor feckers have FOR SALE signs up. One of these is selling at €275k when the market price (for similar houses) is €305k. They also blocked off a section with wooded fence where houses were due to built, the driveway entrance is laid!!!

chancer_007

Rathgowan in Mullingar
I know someone who was out looking at these houses.
There was nobody looing at them when the launched again.
only a matter of time before social are moved in by council...

BobbyD10

Anyone hear how the viewings for Hazelbrook in Dublin 14 and Stocking Wood in Dublin 16 went at the weekend.

Do-more

DonJose wrote: »

Is this the same developer who built Glenmore Wood in Mullingar opposite the Saab/Hyundai showroom. I drove there this week and half the houses are unsold/empty and 2 poor feckers have FOR SALE signs up. One of these is selling at €275k when the market price (for similar houses) is €305k. They also blocked off a section with wooded fence where houses were due to built, the driveway entrance is laid!!!

I noticed a new sign outside Glenmore wood today "2008 Launch 3 beds €239,950" townhouses I assume. Undercuts Cloon Lara by 5 grand and a better location to boot (IMO) Still won't sell in the current climate though...

DonJose

Do-more wrote: »

I noticed a new sign outside Glenmore wood today "2008 Launch 3 beds €239,950" townhouses I assume. Undercuts Cloon Lara by 5 grand and a better location to boot (IMO) Still won't sell in the current climate though...

I doubt they will even begin work on these townhouses/apartments. They boarded off an area which is zoned for more houses. It looks like work is finished in this estate for the moment, they didn't even bother landscaping the gardens or put in the driveway on over a dozen completed houses.

Do-more

chancer_007 wrote: »

Rathgowan in Mullingar
I know someone who was out looking at these houses.
There was nobody looing at them when the launched again.
only a matter of time before social are moved in by council...

Front page news in the Westmeath Examiner! 20 units sold out of the 40 available in the two weeks since the relaunch of Rathgowan....

Supercell

Interesting quote in that article :-

No one is interested in whether the homes are timber framed or concrete built, if they have eco-credentials, if there is loads of extras like high spec kitchens or fancy sound systems. All buyers want to know is what it will cost and if it is good value in the current climate.

The madness is still with us.

Do-more

Longfield wrote: »

Interesting quote in that article :-

No one is interested in whether the homes are timber framed or concrete built, if they have eco-credentials, if there is loads of extras like high spec kitchens or fancy sound systems. All buyers want to know is what it will cost and if it is good value in the current climate.

The madness is still with us.

Funny, I was going to highlight that but couldn't have been bothered re-typing it!:D

It just goes to show that people have yet to learn and are still thinking short term even with oil over $100 a barrel again.

Having said that, there arn't any real options for someone looking for an energy efficient new home in Mullingar town, you have to go out to Delvin or Killucan to find A-rated new homes...

johnnyskeleton

Longfield wrote: »

Interesting quote in that article :-

No one is interested in whether the homes are timber framed or concrete built, if they have eco-credentials, if there is loads of extras like high spec kitchens or fancy sound systems. All buyers want to know is what it will cost and if it is good value in the current climate.

The madness is still with us.

On the other hand, you could say that this means "people aren't impressed by free designer fit outs or any of the other offers developers are offering in Dublin at the moment, what is really important is the actual price and if they can affort it."

On that basis, I think it makes sense.

seamus

Longfield wrote: »

Interesting quote in that article :-

No one is interested in whether the homes are timber framed or concrete built, if they have eco-credentials, if there is loads of extras like high spec kitchens or fancy sound systems. All buyers want to know is what it will cost and if it is good value in the current climate.

The madness is still with us.

Well, with the exception of perhaps the eco-credentials, much of the "extras" people see through as just filler that costs the builder far less than it would cost them to buy as a consumer.

If faced with two equal houses, except the fitted-out one costs 10k more, I would say most people are savvy enough to realise that it would cost them more than 10k to install themselves, and will go for the slightly more expensive one.

As an actual "pull" though, people quite rightly don't go looking at houses just because they have extras.

Remember that extras or no extras, when you go to sell it on, people are often dismissive of such things. Particularly when buying large second-hand homes, people are buying with a view to gutting things like kitchens and bathrooms and redoing them.

SimpleSam06

Interesting headlines over the weekend, 70,000 people in negative equity and the fingers of blame are starting to be pointed.

Up to 70,000 first time house buyers who took on mortgages since 2006 face negative equity thanks to the Government's mishandling of the economy, according to Fine Gael's deputy leader, Richard Bruton.

Mr Bruton was reacting to Central Bank figures this morning that showed that growth in private sector lending fell to a four-year low in January as demand for new mortgage slumped to a 14-year low.

"Brian Cowen's shambolic handling of the economy has left the financial sector, households and first time buyers exposed to the global economic crisis," he said.

He added that Mr Cowen's reign has left Ireland with a financial system more exposed to property speculators than any other major economy (including Japan in the late 1980s).

"Just under two-thirds of total outstanding bank debt (about E225 billion) is now property-related. Lending to builders and developers alone (excluding mortgages) now stands at well over E100 billion - or 30pc of total bank lending'- more than the value of all retail deposits with Irish banks," he said.

He added that Ireland now has a level of household indebtedness that will act as a drag on the economy for years to come. At 91pc of GNP, personal indebtedness in Ireland is now higher than any other eurozone country and is almost twice the eurozone average.

Not much in the way of new news to most on this forum, but it may come as a bit of a shock to the general public. I wouldn't want to be Bertie or Cowen in 3 to 5 years time.

punchestown

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

I wouldn't want to be Bertie or Cowen in 3 to 5 years time.

Bertie will have handed over the reigns before the next election. He will be sitting back into either a nice cushy job with the EU as president of banking control or other new fangled position created for their ilk or beginning the campaign to launch as next president of ireland. He rightfully assumes that the people of this country will want to thank him with some sort of official recognition for his wonderful work with the housing pyramid scheme and for making so many of us so wealthy out of so few so stupid. The 70,000 or so sheep that bought into berties assurances are a small price to pay for allowing so many to profit and generations to come will adorn the great man as the visionary and social planner he was.

Three cheers for Bertie

corkfella

slightly off topic i know but brendan o'connors article in the independent was enough to make you sick, he actually forecasted that he would all feel very guilty because how we are treating bertie and trying to force our national leader out of office because he had so many bungs going in and out of bank accounts in the 90's even he doesnt know where they came from, gud man brendan please stick to you're a star.

from the property point of view i see there are an awful amount of rennovation projects of older houses in cork but a few builder friends say things have never been quieter....