Housing Bubble Bursting

orbital83

astrofool wrote: »

it's been more like, at the launch of a phase, or a large price cut that a bunch of people queue just for the sake of it.

Rent-a-Queue at work again.
Developers trying anything to stave off the banks for another few months.

martian1980

patrickolee wrote: »

No-one really batted an eyelid. He probably took it out of his annual leave I guess. BTW, he said that the development sold out (first phase)

That's some insight you've got there. While you're at it, could you tell me what the attitude in my work was to patrick swayze getting cancer? How are you on lotto numbers?

SkepticOne

patrickolee wrote: »

No-one really batted an eyelid. He probably took it out of his annual leave I guess. BTW, he said that the development sold out (first phase)

Thanks. Still a long way to go so.

The_Conductor

martian1980 wrote: »

That's some insight you've got there. While you're at it, could you tell me what the attitude in my work was to patrick swayze getting cancer? How are you on lotto numbers?

Martian1980- if you disagree with someone's post- attack the post, and not the person. This is a rule common to all fora. This is a once off warning.

SimpleSam06

astrofool wrote: »

Sorry, I should have qualified that by saying big queues leading to a sell out, which we haven't had anything near so far, it's been more like, at the launch of a phase, or a large price cut that a bunch of people queue just for the sake of it.

I'm not so sure now, my own father is old school you-can't-lose-on-property, and while the recent drops have fazed him somewhat, his latest catchphrase is "bargaining power". The recent drops make it the best time in the world to buy, according to him, because its a buyers market and you don't want to lose the opportunity to buy with that leverage.

I had to point out of course that it will be a buyers market for some time to come, and saving now means you save much more in the long term. Interesting to see how the VI waffle percolates down to some people, however. Are they attempting to replace fear of being locked out by high prices with a fear of missing low prices, not that they are low prices?

Its going to take a full generation for the property ladder madness to get washed out of the Irish psyche, and the process will be extremely painful.

iguana

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

Interesting to see how the VI waffle percolates down to some people, however. Are they attempting to replace fear of being locked out by high prices with a fear of missing low prices, not that they are low prices?

I've heard a few ordinary people throw out "it's never been a better time to buy!" slogan du jour. I always counter it with "No, not even in 2004? What about 2002? 1999 even?"

Gurgle

iguana wrote: »

I always counter it with "No, not even in 2004? What about 2002? 1999 even?"

Since around 2001, theres been talk of an overheating property market and increasing possibility of a crash.

Since 2004 its been impending doom, any minute now the bubble will burst and it'll all fall apart.

Its easy to look back and say anytime before 200X was the best time to buy, with the benefit of historical data.

IMO, its safer now that the market is settling than it was at any time in the last 5 years. You don't stand to gain much now, but you're not at such a high risk of losing either.

Zachary

Gurgle wrote: »

Since around 2001, theres been talk of an overheating property market and increasing possibility of a crash.

Since 2004 its been impending doom, any minute now the bubble will burst and it'll all fall apart.

Its easy to look back and say anytime before 200X was the best time to buy, with the benefit of historical data.

IMO, its safer now that the market is settling than it was at any time in the last 5 years. You don't stand to gain much now, but you're not at such a high risk of losing either.

Undoubtedly there were calls for prudence from some people, but they were very much in the minority. Often their opinions were exaggerated to fulfill the VI agenda -- a typical trait of the boom-bust cycle.

Now the minority has become the majority and you'd find it very difficult to stand up and say "buy now" without being lambasted. The point is though that the Irish economy is in the process of being sucked down a whirlpool and the politicians are in their life-boats getting ready to retire on their state pensions. There is no leadership in Ireland. And it's back to "every man for himself" once more.

super_furry

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Before the M50 went in, Knocklyon extended into Firhouse which is Tallaght

It still does. I live on the far side of the M50, which while techincally Firhouse, the address is Knockylon, Dublin 16.

iguana

Gurgle wrote: »

IMO, its safer now that the market is settling than it was at any time in the last 5 years. You don't stand to gain much now, but you're not at such a high risk of losing either.

Does that mean that you think prices will fall to 2003 levels? Because if you don't believe that then it was better to buy in 2003.

Gurgle

iguana wrote: »

Does that mean that you think prices will fall to 2003 levels? Because if you don't believe that then it was better to buy in 2003.

No, it means that you didn't bother reading what I typed.

iguana

Gurgle wrote: »

No, it means that you didn't bother reading what I typed.

Yes I did, it just didn't make much sense. It doesn't matter if you have a better gut feeling now, if prices are as you predict, settling now it would have actually made more to buy in 2003 than it does now. It would have most likely been cheaper and you would be 5 years into your repayments by now. Or if as seems most likely, prices continue to drop then it will be better to buy next year than now.

"There has never been a better time to buy," is a complete nonsense statement.

AARRRGH

Does anyone have any updated figures on further price falls?

Do-more

Do-more wrote: »

I noticed a new sign outside Glenmore wood today "2008 Launch 3 beds €239,950" townhouses I assume. Undercuts Cloon Lara by 5 grand and a better location to boot (IMO) Still won't sell in the current climate though...

Ad in local paper for Glenmore Wood listing 3 beds from €229,950 and 4 beds from €264,950. A work mate says he's been told that they have sold 11 units since the relaunch. Assuming it's true (which can be a big assumption when there's an EA involved!) then at least a few FTB's have got fed up sitting on the fence and are taking the plunge...

gurramok

dublindude wrote: »

Does anyone have any updated figures on further price falls?

IPW!

This one caught my eye from the pin. Out in Blanch, Erris square in Waterville has dropped prices about 60k per unit.(from daft)

Was

Erris Square, Waterville, Blanchardstown, Dublin 15
On Sale Now
High Specification Duplex and Apartments

The choice is yours

1 Bedroom Apartments from €295,950
1 Bedroom plus Study from €305,950
2 Bedroom Apartments from €335,950
2 Bedroom Duplex units from €375,950
2 Bedroom Duplex Townhouses from €410,950
3 Bedroom Duplex units from €490,950
3 Bedroom Duplex Townhouses from €499,950

Now

Erris Square, Waterville, Blanchardstown, Dublin 15
On Sale Now
High Specification Duplex and Apartments

The choice is yours

1 bed apt - third floor 600 sq.ft 240,950
1 bed with study - third floor 820 sq.ft 249,950
2 bed apt (in block) ground floor 750 sq.ft 260,000
2 bed apt – own door - ground 860 sq.ft 285,000
2 bed apt – second floor - 820 sq.ft 285,000
2 bed duplex – ground/first 904 sq.ft 286,000
2 bed duplex – ground/first 1,012 sq.ft 290,000
2 bed duplex – second/third 1,120 sq.ft 265,000
3 bed duplex – Ground/ First 1,300 sq.ft 365,000
3 bed duplex – Second/third 1,420 sq.ft 355,000
3 bed duplex – First /Second 1,270 sq.ft From 355,000

miju

got a great flyer in my door today about a housing development in louth that has just been launched with the headline "you can own a 3 bed house for €300 per week which is cheaper than renting"

was laughing as i live 15 mins from dublin city centre and my rent is cheaper than €300 a week for a 3 bed and qaulity of life is about 10 times better than being in louth of all places

gurramok

Just checked daft for Louth, lets say Drogheda to try to achieve that high rent price.

Most around 1000 to 1100 for a 3bed house, a small number for 1200, talk about outright lies on that leaflet you got.

Gurgle

miju wrote: »

got a great flyer in my door today about a housing development in louth that has just been launched with the headline "you can own a 3 bed house for €300 per week which is cheaper than renting"

lol, deadly.
The EAs are getting desperate, advertise in Dublin, they'll buy anything!

miju wrote: »

i live 15 mins from dublin city centre and ... qaulity of life is about 10 times better than being in louth of all places

Double lol

groom

gurramok wrote: »

IPW!

This one caught my eye from the pin. Out in Blanch, Erris square in Waterville has dropped prices about 60k per unit.(from daft)

Was

Now

Aren't these Affordable Homes i.e. you have to live there for 20 years or repay clawback. I've started seeing these on DAFT for the first time recently. Seems like a great way for developers to get there top € in this market

johnnyskeleton

dublindude wrote: »

Does anyone have any updated figures on further price falls?

Is it odd that PTSB/ERSI haven't released their February 08 report yet?

gurramok

groom wrote: »

Aren't these Affordable Homes i.e. you have to live there for 20 years or repay clawback. I've started seeing these on DAFT for the first time recently. Seems like a great way for developers to get there top € in this market

Yes, a portion of them are offered as 'affordable'. The prices listed are open market prices for open market selling.

SkepticOne

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Is it odd that PTSB/ERSI haven't released their February 08 report yet?

They normally produce the report at the end of the following month or early in the month after that. Thus we had the report for Jan 08 coming out on 4th March which showed a decline of 7% in January. The ESRI report is widely regarded as understating the full extent of price falls and is based on subjective valuations undertaken by PSTB. It is also a lagging indicator and represents falls in the preceeding months.

Dalfiatach

SkepticOne wrote: »

The ESRI report is widely regarded as understating the full extent of price falls and is based on subjective valuations undertaken by PSTB. It is also a lagging indicator and represents falls in the preceeding months.

Or to sum up, the ESRI index is pure bogroll. Makey-uppy nonsense.

We need a freely-available online national register showing actual sale prices for properties sold.

People might whine that they don't want the neighbours to know what they bought the house for, but to hell with that.* One of the reasons why the Irish bubble reached such ridiculous heights was the complete lack of hard information available to the public, so most people were relying on VI spin, bluster, scaremongering and downright lies to make the biggest financial decision of their lives.

As an example, the VI spin (regurgitated verbatim by our gombeen media, but that's another issue) this week is that "prices have bottomed out" and "rents are rising". Neither are true, but because hard data is very difficult to come by it's difficult to expose the lies (even if any Irish journalist was willing to try).

Any data we do have indicates that rents have been falling for the last few months after a surge last summer (a surge caused by a contraction in supply after thousands of rental units were put up for sale: they didn't shift and now they're back on the rental market again, hence more rental choice, hence falling rent); and absolutely no data whatsoever that price falls are slowing down. Quite the opposite, in fact, with builders starting to slash prices in newbuild developments recently.

* If we had a proper postcode system, I might be willing to compromise on being able to search on recent property transactions in a postcode area without showing actual addresses.

Markets only work if everyone involved has access to the same information. Markets where information is deliberately hidden are corrupt and rife with exploitation by VIs...and also prone to bubbles.

SkepticOne

Dalfiatach wrote: »

As an example, the VI spin (regurgitated verbatim by our gombeen media, but that's another issue) this week is that "prices have bottomed out" and "rents are rising". Neither are true, but because hard data is very difficult to come by it's difficult to expose the lies (even if any Irish journalist was willing to try).

Any data we do have indicates that rents have been falling for the last few months after a surge last summer (a surge caused by a contraction in supply after thousands of rental units were put up for sale: they didn't shift and now they're back on the rental market again, hence more rental choice, hence falling rent)

The biggest losers from this lack of information (although they don't realise it) are the sellers of properties and landlords who, influenced by this spin, end up putting their properties for sale or for rent at far to high a price and not finding buyers. The beneficiaries of the spin are the builders who can quietly shift properties at a discount while keeping the rest of the prices high.

The_Conductor

SkepticOne wrote: »

The biggest losers from this lack of information (although they don't realise it) are the sellers of properties and landlords who, influenced by this spin, end up putting their properties for sale or for rent at far to high a price and not finding buyers. The beneficiaries of the spin are the builders who can quietly shift properties at a discount while keeping the rest of the prices high.

+1

SimpleSam06

More slapstick humour from the keystone cops running the Galway City Council in the front page of the Tribune today, they apparently ran out of money in the budget to buy new houses from "families struggling under a double mortgage", so they had to run to central government to make up the shortfall. The twist in the tail? Turns out the government doesn't have the money either, so they are about 20 million short, or a quarter more than their budget. I really don't know whether to laugh or cry.

SimpleSam06

Some news from across the water, the fifth largest investment bank in the US has lost around 90% of its value in the last few weeks, and is being bought out. Bear Stearns, an investment bank up to its hairline in subprime property loans, is being bought out by JP Morgan for cents on the dollar, dragging down European markets with it. Will we see similar events in Ireland, with the 3x GDP in debt owed to Irish banks on mortgages and loans to developers?

"Everyone's asking: Who's next? Is there a Bear Stearns in Europe, could investment banks start to fail?"

AARRRGH

gurramok wrote: »

Out in Blanch, Erris square in Waterville has dropped prices about 60k per unit.(from daft)

Isn't that place an unbelievable ****hole with gangs of skangers causing trouble in the area?

It absolutely amazes me how people have paid 350 - 450k to live in ****holes.

indiewindy

dublindude wrote: »

Isn't that place an unbelievable ****hole with gangs of skangers causing trouble in the area?

It absolutely amazes me how people have paid 350 - 450k to live in ****holes.

Desperation to get on the property ladder, and believing all the VI's saying prices would never fall

gurramok

dublindude wrote: »

Isn't that place an unbelievable ****hole with gangs of skangers causing trouble in the area?

It absolutely amazes me how people have paid 350 - 450k to live in ****holes.

Dunno about ****hole but as anecdotal, i do sometimes go on a lunchtime walk from work through waterville and the evidence of burnt concrete to the rear in a car park is evident as well as some vandalism i saw on a esb unit as well as a little bit of graffiti.
Might be small time or once off stuff but yes it is beside a known rough area out that way.