Housing Bubble Bursting

Afuera

faceman wrote: »

Not denying prices are coming down, but if 0.3% and 3% is considered a "crash", then what's 20% or 30%????

These number only show the drop in the last 3 months. If it continues like it has for the 1st quarter of 2008 then it is indeed going to be severe. Wicklow has seen drops of 7% in the last 3 months. Annualized it represents a 28% drop.

Afuera

Gurgle wrote: »

3) People who would sell if they got the right money but aren't so desperate to sell that they'll do so at any price.

So do you think we are going to get a long drawn out affair like in Japan then?

Afuera

DublinDilbert wrote: »

Does anyone actually believe things are going to pick up in the second half of this year?? With and extra 12000 people on the live register in march alone!!!

That figure is quite scarey! If this rate continues we will have an unemployment rate of over 10% by the end of the year.

Gurgle

Afuera wrote: »

So do you think we are going to get a long drawn out affair like in Japan then?

no

SkepticOne

Gurgle wrote: »

no

Thats a relief.

DublinDilbert

Afuera wrote: »

That figure is quite scarey! If this rate continues we will have an unemployment rate of over 10% by the end of the year.

It is quite amazing... i think the figure was released last week around the time bertie resigned, hence wasn't major news.... Also the NET figures for Jan & Feb were 18000, so that would average to 9000 / month.

I don't think it's going to stay at 12000 / month, but even if it averaged to half that ie 6,000 / month it would still be a massive increase by the end of the year....

This is why in many dole offices the waiting time to process a claim has gone form 1week to 5 or 6 weeks.

Gurgle

SkepticOne wrote: »

Thats a relief.

You must be really highly strung :eek:

iguana

DublinDilbert wrote: »

Does anyone actually believe things are going to pick up in the second half of this year??

Yes, unfortunately some people do. Those who are selling are clinging to it, and there are those considering buying because the bubble went on so long they really don't think prices can go any other way. And the Irish media isn't doing a lot to disillusion them.

smooth operater

DublinDilbert wrote: »

It is quite amazing... i think the figure was released last week around the time bertie resigned, hence wasn't major news.... Also the NET figures for Jan & Feb were 18000, so that would average to 9000 / month.

I don't think it's going to stay at 12000 / month, but even if it averaged to half that ie 6,000 / month it would still be a massive increase by the end of the year....

This is why in many dole offices the waiting time to process a claim has gone form 1week to 5 or 6 weeks.

well the more that come in the more houses will be needed, up-ing the demand, however bad news for trades people i guess

DublinDilbert

smooth operater wrote: »

well the more that come in the more houses will be needed, up-ing the demand, however bad news for trades people i guess

Don't understand what you mean....

"well the more that come in"?? the more what??

The_Conductor

smooth operater wrote: »

well the more that come in the more houses will be needed, up-ing the demand, however bad news for trades people i guess

Smooth Operator- we are back in a net emmigration situation, and have been for the past 4-5 months. At the moment its mostly the Eastern Europeans who are returning to their home countries, or elsewhere, seeking better job opportunities that are no longer available here- but the number of Irish emmigrating is also trending upwards. This is reflected in the quarterly work force survey by the CSO, and also notionally in the much higher supply of housing units, particularly in the rental sector, which is having a dampening effect on yields.

beeno67

smccarrick wrote: »

Smooth Operator- we are back in a net emmigration situation, and have been for the past 4-5 months. At the moment its mostly the Eastern Europeans who are returning to their home countries, or elsewhere, seeking better job opportunities that are no longer available here- but the number of Irish emmigrating is also trending upwards. This is reflected in the quarterly work force survey by the CSO, .

Where did they say this. I thought they said employment was rising and the workforce was rising

smooth operater

smccarrick wrote: »

Smooth Operator- we are back in a net emmigration situation, and have been for the past 4-5 months. At the moment its mostly the Eastern Europeans who are returning to their home countries, or elsewhere, seeking better job opportunities that are no longer available here- but the number of Irish emmigrating is also trending upwards. This is reflected in the quarterly work force survey by the CSO, and also notionally in the much higher supply of housing units, particularly in the rental sector, which is having a dampening effect on yields.

Wow, right, i guess once its dumbed down a notch to my level it is quite alarming

The_Conductor

beeno67 wrote: »

Where did they say this. I thought they said employment was rising and the workforce was rising

The employment level in Forfas (aided) companies grew by less than 1000 over the course of 2007, and is already in negative territory for Q1 2008. The CSO are now reporting a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 5.52% for March '08 (level = 199,900) (versus 4.56% for March 2007 level =98,800). The latest unemployment figures (an increase of just over 12,000 on February's figures) are most notable for the fact that new unemployment claims are almost 50:50 male and female (whereas previous increases were predominantly men). This reflects the fact that falls in construction related employment (where women account for under 5% of those employed) are now hitting the other sectors in the economy. The Q1 2008 rise in unemployment is of just over 28,300 (16%). The last time we had a quarterly increase in unemployment of this scale was in Q1 1975, and the monthly increase in unemployment figures (March 08) is the single largest increase since we started keeping records in 1967. Parts of Dublin, Kildare, Meath, Wicklow and the Midlands are bearing the brunt of the increase in unemployment (with rises of over 40% reported in some unemployment offices).

S.

beeno67

smccarrick wrote: »

The employment level in Forfas (aided) companies grew by less than 1000 over the course of 2007, and is already in negative territory for Q1 2008. The CSO are now reporting a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 5.52% for March '08 (level = 199,900) (versus 4.56% for March 2007 level =98,800). The latest unemployment figures (an increase of just over 12,000 on February's figures) are most notable for the fact that new unemployment claims are almost 50:50 male and female (whereas previous increases were predominantly men). This reflects the fact that falls in construction related employment (where women account for under 5% of those employed) are now hitting the other sectors in the economy. The Q1 2008 rise in unemployment is of just over 28,300 (16%). The last time we had a quarterly increase in unemployment of this scale was in Q1 1975, and the monthly increase in unemployment figures (March 08) is the single largest increase since we started keeping records in 1967. Parts of Dublin, Kildare, Meath, Wicklow and the Midlands are bearing the brunt of the increase in unemployment (with rises of over 40% reported in some unemployment offices).

S.

Unemployment may be rising. My point is you said employment is falling, migrants are returning to their own countries and Irish people are now emigrating. You maybe right in this or you may be wrong but you are entitled to your opinion. My problem is you say the CSO Quarterly Employment Survey backs your opinion when infact it says the exact oposite.

Quarterly National Household Survey, Quarter 4, 2007

Employment grows by 3.2%

There were 2,138,900 persons in employment in the fourth quarter of 2007, representing an increase of 66,800 or 3.2% in the year. This compares to an annual growth rate of 3.3% in the previous quarter and to a rate of 4.4% in the fourth quarter of 2006. The increase of 45,800 (+5.2%) in female employment represented almost 69% of the total increase in employment, with male employment increasing by 21,000 (+1.8%).

nesf

beeno67 wrote: »

Unemployment may be rising. My point is you said employment is falling, migrants are returning to their own countries and Irish people are now emigrating. You maybe right in this or you may be wrong but you are entitled to your opinion. My problem is you say the CSO Quarterly Employment Survey backs your opinion when infact it says the exact oposite.

Quarterly National Household Survey, Quarter 4, 2007

Employment grows by 3.2%

There were 2,138,900 persons in employment in the fourth quarter of 2007, representing an increase of 66,800 or 3.2% in the year. This compares to an annual growth rate of 3.3% in the previous quarter and to a rate of 4.4% in the fourth quarter of 2006. The increase of 45,800 (+5.2%) in female employment represented almost 69% of the total increase in employment, with male employment increasing by 21,000 (+1.8%).

In fairness he's quoting from Q1 2008 and not Q4 2007 like you have.

The_Conductor

The total number in employment is falling quarter on quarter. I was referencing the last 4-5 months. Using the Quarterly National Household Survey which you are quoting- the annual rate of employment actually increased year-on-year by 66,800 (a 3.2% annual increase). However if you examine the core figures- the vast bulk of that increase was earlier in the year. Later in the year not only had the rate of increase slowed down but it had actually reversed (to the extent that by the 4th quarter there was an overall reduction of 7,100 in the total number of those employed (from 2.146m in Q3 to 2.1389m in Q4). The number of those claiming unemployment benefit conversely also fell in this period, by 13,400- which is accounted for by net emmigration- as I discussed.

It will be really interesting to see how these figures continue to trend when the Q1 2008 survey details are published in 2 weeks time.

Your figures are correct, yes, but look at them on a quarterly basis instead of on an annual basis and they tell an altogether different story altogether.

beeno67

smccarrick wrote: »

The total number in employment is falling quarter on quarter. I was referencing the last 4-5 months. Using the Quarterly National Household Survey which you are quoting- the annual rate of employment actually increased year-on-year by 66,800 (a 3.2% annual increase). However if you examine the core figures- the vast bulk of that increase was earlier in the year. Later in the year not only had the rate of increase slowed down but it had actually reversed (to the extent that by the 4th quarter there was an overall reduction of 7,100 in the total number of those employed (from 2.146m in Q3 to 2.1389m in Q4). The number of those claiming unemployment benefit conversely also fell in this period, by 13,400- which is accounted for by net emmigration- as I discussed.

It will be really interesting to see how these figures continue to trend when the Q1 2008 survey details are published in 2 weeks time.

Your figures are correct, yes, but look at them on a quarterly basis instead of on an annual basis and they tell an altogether different story altogether.

As I said I only quoted the survey because you did . It is a huge leap to say that if the number employed fall and the number caliming unemployment assistance falls the net is accounted for by net emmigration. This is the period schools and colleges reopen and is far more likely to have accounted for the difference. Indeed the CSO says in the report that

"When seasonal factors are taken into account the number of persons in
employment increased by 17,900 in the quarter while the numbers unemployed

showed an increase of 2,900."
Using your logic this proves net migration into the country

DublinDilbert

Looks like FAS have a report out:-
5.5% unemployment by the end of 2008
6.6% unemployment by the end of 2009
http://www.rte.ie/business/2008/0409/fas.html

Based on some of the figures above we may well be close to the 5.5% already, CSO Q1 results in a few weeks time will be interesting to say the least.

Before the general election last year there was a huge amount of manufacturing job losses announced, but in most cases the operations were going to be wound down / transferred over the coming 12 months or so, so i believe much of the figures for jan/feb will be as a result of this too...

johnnyskeleton

Anecdotally, I've heard of people in the building trade that were out of work for the last 4/5 months starting back again in the last few weeks. I'm not sure how reliable this is, but looking at the trade generally, it seems to me that while the bubble in prices was obvious, the reaction to it by the developers (i.e. to stop building altogether) was a bit too dramatic, and now building is starting up again on a smaller scale. This could also reflect Eastern Europeans returning home thus easing the pressure on work.

On the other hand, this could have been a reaction to the increased sales in Feb/March, and since they seem to have ground to a halt again, these jobs might be very short lived.

BigglesMcGee

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Anecdotally, I've heard of people in the building trade that were out of work for the last 4/5 months starting back again in the last few weeks. I'm not sure how reliable this is, but looking at the trade generally, it seems to me that while the bubble in prices was obvious, the reaction to it by the developers (i.e. to stop building altogether) was a bit too dramatic, and now building is starting up again on a smaller scale. This could also reflect Eastern Europeans returning home thus easing the pressure on work.

On the other hand, this could have been a reaction to the increased sales in Feb/March, and since they seem to have ground to a halt again, these jobs might be very short lived.

Ive seen this too. have several mates in building trade who went to London before Christmas to work. Starting to come back now though. Too expensive to live over there and not paid enough. Europe opening up has hurt wages there too. And there are more jobs here now for them to come back to. There werent for a good while there.

Blackjack

I did read about a representative in of the Irish Construction Industry federation indicating that a lot of the work that Builders were doing was more in the line of repair of exist properties, extensions etc as opposed to full on development, but then again they'll never make out to be doing well in any case.

Noteb

We just put our 2 bed duplex apartment on the market last week-had have had a very positive response so far. Two offers above asking price!
Just wanted to give others some hope. As we thought we would be on the market for a long time, or would have to sell at a loss/ just about break even.

martian1980

Noteb wrote: »

We just put our 2 bed duplex apartment on the market last week-had have had a very positive response so far. Two offers above asking price!
Just wanted to give others some hope. As we thought we would be on the market for a long time, or would have to sell at a loss/ just about break even.

That's great! Do you mind me asking where the duplex is and what your asking price was?

confuzed

Noteb wrote: »

Just wanted to give others some hope.

What hope you are talking about. Driving prices crazy again so that young FTB cann't afford a home.

blah

Noteb wrote: »

Just wanted to give others some hope.

I've heard about thousands of houses where the sellers didn't get any offers at the asking price and had to drop the price several times to sell. Just wanted to give other FTBs some hope.

faceman

confuzed wrote: »

What hope you are talking about. Driving prices crazy again so that young FTB cann't afford a home.

There is affordable first time homes out. Its down to whether or not you would live there or not.

As with prices going up, with prices coming down it will inevitably reach a point where prices start to increase again. Although we all hope we dont see a return to days of double digit increases

Noteb

It is in Meath- and the asking price was 250K, and we got offered 252K
All i want to do is repay the mortgage- not make a fortune.
I was offering hope to anyone else in my situation.

patrickolee

Readers of the bubble thread don't like positive news. It doesn't sit well with their belief system, did you not know that? Could you spin it in a different way... maybe we expected to get 300k, but only got offers for 252k. That's a 16% drop!

They prefer that :rolleyes:

Noteb

i'm learning