Housing Bubble Bursting

Gurgle

^^ 297 pages of pure entertainment.
See why I sent you here?

ntlbell

patrickolee wrote: »

Readers of the bubble thread don't like positive news. It doesn't sit well with their belief system, did you not know that? Could you spin it in a different way... maybe we expected to get 300k, but only got offers for 252k. That's a 16% drop!

They prefer that :rolleyes:

Over the period 6th April to the 13th April 2008 there were 1,069 price drops and the average drop was €24,611 or 6.24%.

in other news someone got an offer for a 2 bed duplex

Let the good times roll!

Seriously patrick what do you want to hear everytime there is a tiny bit of good news (can it even be called good news?) in all the crap? baloons? cheers? partys?

Phaetonman

The bubble is back on lads. One house has had an offer 0.8% above asking price. You should gazump the buyer when it comes to closing and blame it on a rising market.

beeno67

ntlbell wrote: »

Over the period 6th April to the 13th April 2008 there were 1,069 price drops and the average drop was €24,611 or 6.24%.

in other news someone got an offer for a 2 bed duplex

Let the good times roll!

Seriously patrick what do you want to hear everytime there is a tiny bit of good news (can it even be called good news?) in all the crap? baloons? cheers? partys?

Drops in the asking price of a property is a pretty meaningless measurement. It is drops in selling price that counts. Noteb sold his property for more or less the same price he bought it in 2006. This fits with most analysts findings that property prices are at 2006 levels. No reason to get excited.

patrickolee

ntlbell wrote: »

Over the period 6th April to the 13th April 2008 there were 1,069 price drops and the average drop was €24,611 or 6.24%.

in other news someone got an offer for a 2 bed duplex

Let the good times roll!

Seriously patrick what do you want to hear everytime there is a tiny bit of good news (can it even be called good news?) in all the crap? baloons? cheers? partys?

No, but I suppose you'd hope that the poster wouldn't be mocked for simply telling his/her story. They are giving an account of some real world experience rather than some meaningless statistics/mindless reproduction of spin/erroneous figures/vain hope that the world is going to end.

Nice to have a brief encounter with reality, that's all. Thanks Noteb.

miju

Well heres another sample of reality. The couple my other half childcares for just bought a house yesterday. They were going to offer asking price of 450k.

I did some explaining to him about the current market and they offered 400k on the house. The offer was refused so they upped it to 415k last which was also refused.

They then made a final offer of 425k which was accepted yesterday and they are now moving to completion and looking to move into the property in July. The property is in North Dublin.

Just thought I'd offer that reality which came to a conclusion yesterday in comparison to the 2k overbid in Meath

arctictree

miju wrote: »

Well heres another sample of reality. The couple my other half childcares for just bought a house yesterday. They were going to offer asking price of 450k.

I did some explaining to him about the current market and they offered 400k on the house. The offer was refused so they upped it to 415k last which was also refused.

They then made a final offer of 425k which was accepted yesterday and they are now moving to completion and looking to move into the property in July. The property is in North Dublin.

Just thought I'd offer that reality which came to a conclusion yesterday in comparison to the 2k overbid in Meath

So what do you get for saving them 25K?!!

miju

Was only too happy to help someone save that amount of cash and their thanks was more than enough

orbital83

patrickolee wrote: »

Nice to have a brief encounter with reality, that's all. Thanks Noteb.

Yeah thanks! Now, for the rest of us, let's have another trip into fantasy land.

Anglo chief reckons house prices will fall until 2010
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/property-to-fall-until-2010-1346187.html

String of lenders raise mortgage rates
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/lenders-raise-rates-to-new-clients-1348131.html

Ooh yeah... that stuff is good... totally takes me to another level man :rolleyes:

martian1980

Fair play, and as if their thanks wasn't enough, I'm sure patrickolee will also thank you for another encounter with reality

miju

Ah it wasn't entirely selfless I'm a firm believer in karma so I'm sure it will come back at some stage

Thought I'd take a flight of fancy too, but got brought back down with this dose of reality thats about to hit home with a good few people as well

punchestown

Paddy Powers are betting on what will be the % change of Irish National House Prices for the 12 months from 1st Jan to the end of December 2008. Settled in accordance with official house price index figures obtained from Permanent TSB.

No change is 25/1 and any increase is 8/1. Im sure some of the shrewdies on here will be availing!

BendiBus

punchestown wrote: »

Paddy Powers are betting on what will be the % change of Irish National House Prices for the 12 months from 1st Jan to the end of December 2008. Settled in accordance with official house price index figures obtained from Permanent TSB.

No change is 25/1 and any increase is 8/1. Im sure some of the shrewdies on here will be availing!

They're not taking bets on a fall then

SimpleSam06

faceman wrote: »

There is affordable first time homes out. Its down to whether or not you would live there or not.

Not as many as you might think, nor as many of a livable quality. The county council here in Galway ran out of money to buy overpriced homes for affordable housing (and I mean in a bad way), shambled blubbering to central government to make up the shortfall, and were told eventually that they didn't have it either. Also there have been several scandals in recent weeks with some places being moved as "affordable" were slated as unlivable holes with no windows. Someone made some money there.

In any case, having to depend on government assistance to get a permanent roof over your head is a ludicrous system in a country like Ireland.

patrickolee wrote: »

Readers of the bubble thread don't like positive news. It doesn't sit well with their belief system, did you not know that?

This is definetely true. Readers who are in it up to their neck often view prices going up as positive news, and will argue violently with anyone who points out the opposite, regardless of how reality conflicts with their belief systems. You can hardly blame them since they have likely mortgaged themselves out of the next twenty years of their lives, however, making the semi religious fervour they bring to rational discussions almost understandable.

For them, prices dropping are "doom and gloom" scenarios.

beeno67

John J wrote: »

Yeah thanks! Now, for the rest of us, let's have another trip into fantasy land.

Anglo chief reckons house prices will fall until 2010
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/property-to-fall-until-2010-1346187.html

String of lenders raise mortgage rates
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/lenders-raise-rates-to-new-clients-1348131.html

Ooh yeah... that stuff is good... totally takes me to another level man :rolleyes:

Don't you just love The Independent. Headline says "property prices to fall untill 2010." Article actually says prices to fall by less than 10% this year and not fall at all next year. Considering prices have already fallen this year a more accurate headline would have been " Anglo Irish says property crash over" but I suppose this is not as catchy and certainly would never have made it to this thread.

faceman

beeno67 wrote: »

Don't you just love The Independent. Headline says "property prices to fall untill 2010." Article actually says prices to fall by less than 10% this year and not fall at all next year. Considering prices have already fallen this year a more accurate headline would have been " Anglo Irish says property crash over" but I suppose this is not as catchy and certainly would never have made it to this thread.

Its a rag, similar to their article about property crash hits hard last week.

patrickolee

martian1980 wrote: »

Fair play, and as if their thanks wasn't enough, I'm sure patrickolee will also thank you for another encounter with reality

Yes, I would.

A 5% reduction is about right I would say (currently). It's nowhere near the clap trap you hear about people saying to offer 20-30% less than asking.

So, yes, Miju thank you also for sharing. I would think it and the previous posters experience with the 2k (neg) over are fairly typical.

martian1980

interesting article...

Bank of Scotland hiking rates for new home loans

Bank of Scotland yesterday informed brokers that it would now charge a residential customer seeking a tracker rate mortgage 5.5pc -- a hike of .55pc. Previously, the bank's cheapest tracker was 4.95pc.
The bank told brokers: "New interest rates will come into effect for all new and existing applications within the pipeline."
Mortgage brokers were dismayed that loan offers that they have made to customers in the past few days, the so-called pipeline, would not be honoured unless the offer had been accepted in writing by Bank of Scotland by 10am yesterday morning.
Simply Mortgages' Peter Bastable said: "A customer who thinks on Monday they will get a certain rate are told on Tuesday, 'Tough'. That is unprecedented."
The bank is also cutting the commission for brokers from 1.1pc to 0.7pc.
Bank of Scotland has also decided to scrap all 100pc mortgages, with the most the bank will now lend 90pc of the value of the property.
When it comes to apartments, the bank will loan a maximum of 80pc of the value, with the same percentage applying to buy-to-let properties.
The new rates do not affect existing borrowers, only those taking out new loans through brokers.
Mortgage sellers warned yesterday that the credit crunch is getting so severe that the switcher market is likely to be impacted soon

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/bank-of-scotland-hiking-rates-for-new-home-loans-1349064.html

Glenbhoy

beeno67 wrote: »

Drops in the asking price of a property is a pretty meaningless measurement. It is drops in selling price that counts. Noteb sold his property for more or less the same price he bought it in 2006. This fits with most analysts findings that property prices are at 2006 levels. No reason to get excited.

Any links to 'most analysts findings that property levels are at 2006 levels'?
You are absolutely right that it is drops in the selling prices that count, so why on earth can we not have proper information on this - the revenue have this information, so why not formally publish it, quarterly or annually would be fine - it would be of great informative value on both sides of the bubble.

ixoy

Won't the fact that people are being offered only 80% mortgages have a severe effect on the market? It will surely undercut a huge amount of FTBs who now can't get the loans they require, thus having a knock on effect across the market.

Is there any particular reason for the 80% roof on apartments in particular?

smooth operater

ixoy wrote: »

Is there any particular reason for the 80% roof on apartments in particular?

They will be hit the worst when prices start coming down

beeno67

Glenbhoy wrote: »

Any links to 'most analysts findings that property levels are at 2006 levels'?
You are absolutely right that it is drops in the selling prices that count, so why on earth can we not have proper information on this - the revenue have this information, so why not formally publish it, quarterly or annually would be fine - it would be of great informative value on both sides of the bubble.

Permanent TSB/ESRI do as you know. OK they are 2 months out of date but based on this info prices are back at 2006 levels.
Latest Report: Latest edition of permanent tsb / ESRI House price index published

• Show national house price reduction of 0.7% in January - a smaller reduction than that recorded in each of the last three months of 2007.

Sunday 2nd March 2008
National house prices reduced by 0.7% in January of this year – a smaller reduction than was recorded in October (-1.3%), November (-1.1%) or December (-1.5%) last year according to the latest edition of the permanent tsb / ESRI House Price Index.
Measuring the rate of growth in the 12 months (year on year) to January, national prices were down by 8.1%. This compares to a decline of 7.3% recorded in the 12 months to December last year.
The average price paid for a house nationally in January 2008 was euro 285,880, compared with euro 287,887 in December 2007.

Phaetonman

Is there any particular reason for the 80% roof on apartments in particular?

Thats the banks way of covering their arse. People might think twice about defaulting on their mortgage if they have 20% of their money in it.

punchestown

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

You can hardly blame them since they have likely mortgaged themselves out of the next twenty years of their lives, however, making the semi religious fervour they bring to rational discussions almost understandable.

For them, prices dropping are "doom and gloom" scenarios.

The next 20?? What about the poor saps that signed up to 35 year mortgages (some interest only!):eek:

beeno67

I should also add that Anglo Irish bank predicted a drop in prices this year of less than 10% and Davy predicted drops of 10% both linked in previous posts. This also fits with property prices being back at 2006 levels

Glenbhoy

beeno67 wrote: »

Permanent TSB/ESRI do as you know. OK they are 2 months out of date but based on this info prices are back at 2006 levels.
Latest Report: Latest edition of permanent tsb / ESRI House price index published

• Show national house price reduction of 0.7% in January - a smaller reduction than that recorded in each of the last three months of 2007.

Sunday 2nd March 2008
National house prices reduced by 0.7% in January of this year – a smaller reduction than was recorded in October (-1.3%), November (-1.1%) or December (-1.5%) last year according to the latest edition of the permanent tsb / ESRI House Price Index.
Measuring the rate of growth in the 12 months (year on year) to January, national prices were down by 8.1%. This compares to a decline of 7.3% recorded in the 12 months to December last year.
The average price paid for a house nationally in January 2008 was euro 285,880, compared with euro 287,887 in December 2007.

The PTSB figures (as I'm sure you know) may be accurate, they may not, who knows - estimates tend to be like that though. I was asking why we can't have access to actual figures, not guestimates.

Prices are not at 2006 levels btw, maybe 2005 levels, but definitely not 2006 (and that's hard numbers, excluding inflation).

Glenbhoy

beeno67 wrote: »

I should also add that Anglo Irish bank predicted a drop in prices this year of less than 10% and Davy predicted drops of 10% both linked in previous posts. This also fits with property prices being back at 2006 levels

since prices have not increased since the early months of 2006, how can a drop bring them back to 2006 levels??

beeno67

Glenbhoy wrote: »

Prices are not at 2006 levels btw, maybe 2005 levels, but definitely not 2006 (and that's hard numbers, excluding inflation).

OK then. Show us your hard numbers.

beeno67

Glenbhoy wrote: »

since prices have not increased since the early months of 2006, how can a drop bring them back to 2006 levels??

Because prices rose by more than 8% in 2006

SkepticOne

If we take the conservative, lagging and subjective ESRI/PTSB survey as a guide, the overall index stands at 283,650. This is just below the level it was in Feb06, two years ago when it was 284,096. It is slightly higher than the January 06 figure.

It is generally accepted that it is a lagging index and lags about 3 to 4 months. Taking this into account we are probably well into 2005 numbers at this stage.

Taking inflation into account would also put us well into 2005.

It is also accepted that the ESRI/PTSB index generally underestimates price falls, further supporting the case that prices have fallen back to 2005 levels.

Taking all three factors into consideration I would not be surprised if were back at early 2005 levels.