Housing Bubble Bursting

Cantab.

Say you did decide to put the keys in an envelope, hand them back to the bank and skip the country, would you have to live outside the EU to be untraceable?

My understanding is that, unlike London circa. 1990, our computers/databases are a little more advanced now, and we all have PPS numbers. Can anyone shed any light on this?

KingKenny7

Cantab. wrote:

Say you did decide to put the keys in an envelope, hand them back to the bank and skip the country, would you have to live outside the EU to be untraceable?

My understanding is that, unlike London circa. 1990, our computers/databases are a little more advanced now, and we all have PPS numbers. Can anyone shed any light on this?

I;m sure you'd be caught..

Gurgle

Cantab. wrote:

Say you did decide to put the keys in an envelope, hand them back to the bank and skip the country, would you have to live outside the EU to be untraceable?

Declare bankruptcy.
Start again from nothing, same way you did when you were 18 or so.

Its not as if you have to spend your entire life paying for the mistake you made burying borrowed money in a speculatory investment.

Here in the 21st century, you won't be thrown in a debtors prison to rot or sold into slavery.

Western_sean

Declare bankruptcy.
Start again from nothing, same way you did when you were 18 or so.

Surely impairing your ability to borrow at anything but extortionate rates leaves you in an entirely different position to being 18 with a pretty clean credit history?

Its not as if you have to spend your entire life paying for the mistake you made burying borrowed money in a speculatory investment.

I don't see why not? You would have profited from the gain over your entire life so why should you not suffer the cost of your folly?

Afuera

Gurgle wrote:

Declare bankruptcy.

This isn't the States. I don't think it's that easy to just declare personal bankruptcy like that in Ireland.

Afuera

Afuera wrote:

This isn't the States. I don't think it's that easy to just declare personal bankruptcy like that in Ireland.

Yeah hardly anyone gets to declare bankruptcy in this country!
In the states and Uk its a totally different game!

HashSlinging

I thought you could only declare bankruptcy here if you were a co director.

Zambia

HashSlinging wrote:

I thought you could only declare bankruptcy here if you were a co director.

Here is one poor lad that just cant seem to declare it

100,000 debt at 26 ....and no house it seems

http://www.askaboutmoney.com/archive/index.php/t-805.html

Gurgle

Gurgle wrote:

Declare bankruptcy.

Do you foresee alot of people handing back keys?

I just had a thought - what would stop people to take out loans in the UK or the states provided they had the facility or made it possible - not mortgages but maybe the difference of ten or twenty grand (i.e. the negative equity difference) and not paying it back - or declaring bankruptcy there?

Just in case there are still some doubters about the great pop

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfR816vhcoQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_V_xuc7XZI

Gurgle

Deleted User wrote:

Do you foresee alot of people handing back keys?

Nope.

Deleted User wrote:

what would stop people to take out loans in the UK or the states provided they had the facility or made it possible - not mortgages but maybe the difference of ten or twenty grand (i.e. the negative equity difference) and not paying it back - or declaring bankruptcy there?

What would stop them?
Banks don't give loans to people without the ability to pay them back.

RevBlueJeans

Afuera wrote:

This isn't the States. I don't think it's that easy to just declare personal bankruptcy like that in Ireland.

Unlike the US or the UK I don't think there is any provision in Irish law for personal bankrupcy.

Bluehair

Gurgle wrote:

Here in the 21st century, you won't be thrown in a debtors prison to rot or sold into slavery.

Actually here in 21st century Ireland we still do throw people in debtors prison. Once you get out the debt is still there waiting for you... nice

Afuera

Gurgle wrote:

Banks don't give loans to people without the ability to pay them back.

If this statement was true then how do you explain the current problems facing the banks and financial organizations in the States? Just look at what's happening to New Century and HSBC.

jobless

Deleted User wrote:

Just in case there are still some doubters about the great pop

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfR816vhcoQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_V_xuc7XZI

the second one is some drop in price!

tHE vAGGABOND

Just in case there are still some doubters about the great pop

thats conclusive proof - 2 random you tube vid's

time for every Irish homeowner to hand the keys back to the bank right now so

tHE vAGGABOND

tHE vAGGABOND wrote:

thats conclusive proof - 2 random you tube vid's

time for every Irish homeowner to hand the keys back to the bank right now so

Actually I wouldnt consider it alone to be conclusive proof - that would be silly but it is circumstantial. And when you factor in the hundreds and hundreds of price drops found on the likes of www.thepropertypin.com and on www.irishhousepricesfalling.blogspot.com (which has archives of drops since last year) and on the new automated website which checks every 4 days for price changes - http://www.irishpropertywatch.com/
Its only running a few days and has recorded a couple of hundred of drops

So its starts to paint a picture doesnt it! If you were thinking of buying you would certainly think twice - if you were thinking of selling it would make you think. But as per your above post I dont think it would make people throw away their keys!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8y7-cl3zqQE

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMLeJ6Bh15o


two more "random" you tube videos for you
Showing how you can verify the price drops or check for yourself manually

Rates up .25%


http://www.rte.ie/business/2007/0308/ecb.html

thejuggler

As was expected the european central bank have announced another 0.25% increase in interest rates further tightening the screws on mortgage lending and affordability.

T'will be interesting to see the medias take on it.

jobless

how many more times do you think they will go up again this year?.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

jobless

jobless wrote:

how many more times do you think they will go up again this year?.

Wait and see what they say at the ECB conference

jobless

they wont actually say if there gonna raise them again in the conferance though will they?....

I reckon 1 maybe 2 more....

id be nervous if i were thinking about buying a house

They will hint at it if they intend on rising rates again - thats how they have been doin things up to now - saying that they will be vigilance on inflation etc etc

tHE vAGGABOND

A genuine question for all you doom merchants here..

Is people adjusting their greed, and prices dropping a small bit here and there a sure sign of a massive crash some people in this tread seem certain is on the way?

..and just to argue a bit, a huge amount of the price drops on the websites listed and youtube video's are not in prime area's are they? Random patches of land in Wexford for example? A fair few are in areas where a a massive amount of houses have been built over the last while, in the dublin commuter belts, where you could argue its a matter of supply and demand and the massive range of options people have..

While no one in their right mind cant argue against the market calming down, I really dont see where this crash or bubble burst people talk about is coming from? A slowdown and minor adjustment yes, but nothing insane IMHO. Good places are still being sold quite quickly..

jobless

tHE vAGGABOND wrote:

A genuine question for all you doom merchants here..

Is people adjusting their greed, and prices dropping a small bit here and there a sure sign of a massive crash some people in this tread seem certain is on the way?

..and just to argue a bit, a huge amount of the price drops on the websites listed and youtube video's are not in prime area's are they? Random patches of land in Wexford for example? A fair few are in areas where a a massive amount of houses have been built over the last while, in the dublin commuter belts, where you could argue its a matter of supply and demand and the massive range of options people have..

While no one in their right mind cant argue against the market calming down, I really dont see where this crash or bubble burst people talk about is coming from? A slowdown and minor adjustment yes, but nothing insane IMHO. Good places are still being sold quite quickly..

so you think there will only be a crash in parts of the market?....

if you look at property pin you'll see that drops are occuring in all parts of dublin....and at all price levels....

tHE vAGGABOND

tHE vAGGABOND wrote:

A genuine question for all you doom merchants here..

Using labels in an attempt to discredit other posters is pathetic.
I have a question for you - Explain the mechanics of a soft landing and how it will happen in Ireland? - Use facts and examples of how this may happen.


Us so called "doom merchants" post facts to support our arguments and I have no doubt that we will see a serious property crash with economic consequences. The facts are there and the longer as politicians and people like you deny the facts the worse trouble we are in. If Ireland faced up to the predicament it is in at least it could start to do something about it.

warrenaldo

Lads, personally im hoping the arse falls out of the market as i am a first time buyer who is waiting and saving because i cant afford a place yet. im on the affordable housing list. but would prefer to buy.

Anyway a lot of people here seem to think a crash is 1)happening 2)nealy happening.

Prices have fallen - even from my own pint of view over the last 6 months the same properties that i was looking at have gone down from about 317k to less than 300k for some of the similar properties.

But i have think that this is only because of interest rates increasing. I think every time they raise interest rates people can get a little less of a mortgage. so they are dropping by that amount.

I think that maybe the market has only dropped by the amount increased via the ECB rates.

I also think it has peaked but i think at the moment and forseeable future it will be steady. ie if the ECB rates hadnt of changed then there would have been no drop in house prices - only steadiness.

Just a thought - but id be interested to get feedback on it. and hopefully realise im wrong and the market is falling :-)
cheers

warrenaldo

warrenaldo wrote:

I think that maybe the market has only dropped by the amount increased via the ECB rates.

Yes - the very least the market will fall by would be in relation to interest rates - but we are in a bubble and many other factors would have/or already are brought/bringing about its demise.

40% of buyers up to recently have been investors.
Most of these did not put the properties onto the rental market to avoid capital gains tax. Why did they buy them ? - Because of capital appreciation!
No more capital appreciation because we have a soft landing or a crash
What happens - we lose 40% of buyers overnight.
Market crashes

jobless

warrenaldo wrote:

Lads, personally im hoping the arse falls out of the market as i am a first time buyer who is waiting and saving because i cant afford a place yet. im on the affordable housing list. but would prefer to buy.

Anyway a lot of people here seem to think a crash is 1)happening 2)nealy happening.

Prices have fallen - even from my own pint of view over the last 6 months the same properties that i was looking at have gone down from about 317k to less than 300k for some of the similar properties.

But i have think that this is only because of interest rates increasing. I think every time they raise interest rates people can get a little less of a mortgage. so they are dropping by that amount.

I think that maybe the market has only dropped by the amount increased via the ECB rates.

I also think it has peaked but i think at the moment and forseeable future it will be steady. ie if the ECB rates hadnt of changed then there would have been no drop in house prices - only steadiness.

Just a thought - but id be interested to get feedback on it. and hopefully realise im wrong and the market is falling :-)
cheers

its true what you say about the rate rises meaning people can borrow less....i think rates will keep rising with one in June and maybe one more after that.
its just that with so much speculation in the market over the last few years, once price rises stop investors are going to try to cash in their chips (seeing as rents dont cover the average mortgage these days, why would they hold onto the house if it wasnt increasing).
I think we are seeing this at the moment with the increased inventory on daft.... 4 times what it was last year!!. Houses are taking a lot longer to sell so to some extent i think there may be a stand off between buyer and seller... but prices are dropping

Pa ElGrande

Here is an earlier post from Pa ElGrande

Pa ElGrande wrote:

With over €2 billion a month being pumped into construction thats where the money currently is and while the banks are more than willing to finance these €400 million deals, then there is very little risk to the developers. I am also aware of several people who are divesting of their entire property portfolio at the moment and have been since 2006 and it has also been commented by Merrill Lynch that more Irish people are cashing out of property for other investment oppertunities.

Did you know that the birth rate in Ireland peaked over 27 years ago in 1980, it fell dramatically after that, watch the numbers sitting the leaving certificate to get an idea of the number of first time buyers entering the market. The average age of the first time buyer is 32. In the age group 22 to 32 (the next 10 years of first time buyers) according to the CSO there are approximately 690,000 people.
In 2006 we will have built approx. 90,000 units. Immigration is still positive in 2006, Irish Mortgage Corporation (Hooke & McDonald) estimated that 18.5% of their clients are non-national, so extrapolating from the first time buyer mortgage draw downs this would imply there were at most 7,000 non-nationals buying property last year.

Did you know that just over 40% of the mortgages for new property drawn down last year were for Residential Investment Lettings? That indicates a huge level of speculation in the market since the rental yield has been falling to under 3%. (Yields started to pick up in the latter half of 2006 in Dublin). Yet despite strong immigration and population growth, the Central statistics office found 275,000 empty properties accross the country in April 2006. This indicates a huge level of speculation based on the expectation of capital gains in the market, and indeed house price inflation has nominally been about 14 percent per annum in nominal terms. In Europe we also have the highest level of employment in construction as a percentage of the workforce and its estimated 100,000 of those working in the sector will need to seek alternative employment over the next 10 years.

Without a doubt the current population trend for Ireland is upward, but the problem is we are building at a rate that is ahead of the population increase. A correction in inevitable.

We are not behaving any differently to any other country that has experienced a housing bubble. Ours was first underpinned by population and employment growth and supply shortage as well as foreign direct investment but post 2001 its been sustained by exceptionally low interest rates, easing of lending criteria, and speculation aided by tax breaks.
As the bubble unwinds

• Interest rates go up.
• Banks tighten their criteria for lending.
• Unemployment rises and jobs are tougher to find.
• Bad debts start to mount as businesses fold.
• Investors who are undercapitalised rush to sell else they go bankrupt.
• Peoples appetite for extending themselves to get on the ladder evaporates as fears over job security take precedence.
• Government tax revenue nose dives, its costs increase, leading to huge deficits.

This is funny!!
About the British property slump!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2t8YTvdYXws

h0stn0tf0und

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2t8YTvdYXws

Very funny. I can remember relations coming home to Ireland around this time and they couldnt sell their house for love nor money. They just wanted rid of the place and priced it at the bottom of the market, it still took ages to shift.

Gotta Love this comment

flamins (3 months ago)
... The "problem" with the market today is that the prices keep going up. There's no danger of any negative equity now!

:eek: I dont know how many times I've heard this from 23 - 33 year olds. Ignorance coupled with fleeting arrogance will cost many people in this country dearly.

The bubble bursting, like many other crashes, is a self fulfilling prophecy.

mad m

Is this a first,same house on myhome, but with different agents...Who gets to sell it first?

The first one and forth one are same but different EA ..Link

Smoggy

Link goes to the search page.

Zambia

mad m wrote:

Is this a first,same house on myhome, but with different agents...Who gets to sell it first?

The first one and forth one are same but different EA ..Link

I thought that was not allowed ?

mad m

Smoggy wrote:

Link goes to the search page.

Oops,sorry...Try south dublin,perrystown...Look at first house then forth.

The inventory on Daft.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Smoggy

and whens the Spring Selling Season !?!?!

massplanck

Smoggy wrote:

and whens the Spring Selling Season !?!?!

2010!!

massplanck

House next door to me in Limerick has been for sale for the last 7 months at 260,000. After 7 months of feck all interest (i have only seen two groups of viewings over that space of time) they have decided that the house is now worth 265,000.

idiots!

nxbyveromdwjpg

mad m wrote:

Is this a first,same house on myhome, but with different agents...Who gets to sell it first?

The first one and forth one are same but different EA ..Link

Theres nothing special about that. Happens all the time, always has.

mad m

nm wrote:

Theres nothing special about that. Happens all the time, always has.

Really? Can you link to others? Its the first time I've seen anything like this and I was looking for a while and came within an inch of selling,but decided not to. I also went to view the house I linked to and waited outside for EA to arrive. I then rang him to say we were waiting. He told me his partners car was lifted in town and he was on his way to pound to free it. I rearranged an appointment next day and was waiting again and EA never showed for second time... At the time the house was €635 asking...Then it went down to €600 and now its at €570k.

Makes me laugh now! Thank god his partner got his car lifted

Smoggy

An estate agent like that wont last in a tight market. I would organise to view a place on his books that is miles away from his office and then not turn up.

But i'm just evil and have a major dislike for people with no manners.

Gurgle

Smoggy wrote:

An estate agent like that wont last in a tight market. I would organise to view a place on his books that is miles away from his office and then not turn up.

But i'm just evil and have a major dislike for people with no manners.

Hehe.

I sort of pity the 80% of estate agents that will find themselves unemployed in the next year or 2.

Only a little bit though, the gouging bastards have made more money for less work than anyone else profiteering from the boom.

luckat

House price drops - some of these are cuts of as much as €150,000!

http://irishpropertywatch.5gbfree.com/report_myhome_050307.html

aphex™

luckat wrote:

House price drops - some of these are cuts of as much as €150,000!

http://irishpropertywatch.5gbfree.com/report_myhome_050307.html

Some are as much as €550,000. Look at Rathgar and Dun Laoghaire.

soma

luckat wrote:

House price drops - some of these are cuts of as much as €150,000!

http://irishpropertywatch.5gbfree.com/report_myhome_050307.html

Please note that in that first IrishPropertyWatch report, the analysis tool was fooled by one or two 'new build' listings.

However the new IPW report (418 drops on myhome.ie over six days) is out here: http://www.irishpropertywatch.com and hopefully contains fewer glitches.