Housing Bubble Bursting

jmayo

bobbbb wrote: »

Such an intelligent comment that one.

Home owner in September - i hope, assuming the numbers work out then. if you must know.

Way hey, we have found a buyer at last.
I hope you know what you are doing and don't mind ebign stuck for a while in your new place

Calina wrote: »

And what about the boards of the banks who should have known? That we are bailing out?

Yep the problem is the banks are in the enviable position that most of them are of primary importance to an economy.
Note I said most, since I believe Anglo was never of systemic importance to our economy, becuase it was a bank primarily involved in construction development, not in the wider economy and was not a normal high street bank.

Of course the fact that they had themslves tied in with a financial institutuion (i.e. IL&P) that would be of systemic importance and a major health insurance provider muddied the waters.

IMHO Anglo should have been left go and the others immediately propped up but that is a whole other argument.

Normal private sector companies don't have the luxury of running to government looking for bailouts.

Remember Ericson is not the first, Motorola left Cork not so long ago.
Nortel in Galway is another that may cut jobs.

As poster mentioned I just love when government ministers laud a few new knowledge economy jobs in a call centre.
It just illustrates how little they know and how low we are aiming :rolleyes:

oceanclub

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=18161&sid=1784c1a37c9a84ef2c805bf664099172

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Dublin, capital of the first euro-
region country to report an economic recession, offers the worst
property-investment prospects among Europe’s major urban
markets, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP said.
The Irish capital ranked last among 27 European cities
judged for their real-estate investment and development
opportunities, according to the annual survey of 520 industry
professionals. Dublin was also judged the second most-risky
market after Moscow.
Irish commercial real-estate values declined 37.2 percent
last year, the worst performance in at least two decades, London-
based research firm Investment Property Databank said today. The
collapse of the housing market and restricted lending by banks
contributed to Ireland’s slower economic growth, which in turn
curtailed demand for commercial space.
The Irish “were the longest at the party and now have the
biggest hangover,” John Forbes, PwC’s head of real estate, said
at a presentation in London. “We’re moving from a capital-market
crisis to an occupier crisis.”

bobbiw1

The Irish economy has never had a boom before, so its uncertain to see what will happen.

I think the homes were overvalued, not so much because of income. Most countries have a large renting population.

But because the Irish economy is built on subsidys and foreign investment. there is nothing other than that

oceanclub

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/house-prices-now-falling-faster-than-ever-1656960.html

HOUSE prices are falling more steeply than ever, as sellers discount heavily to try to secure a sale.

Average prices nationally fell by 1.4pc in January, compared to falls of 0.8pc in October, 0.5pc in November and 0.9pc in December, according to the latest Permanent TSB/ESRI house price index.

K-9

oceanclub wrote: »

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/house-prices-now-falling-faster-than-ever-1656960.html

HOUSE prices are falling more steeply than ever, as sellers discount heavily to try to secure a sale.

Average prices nationally fell by 1.4pc in January, compared to falls of 0.8pc in October, 0.5pc in November and 0.9pc in December, according to the latest Permanent TSB/ESRI house price index.

On top of that, Banks will start calling in debts.

http://www.tribune.ie/business/article/2009/mar/01/ulster-bank-stops-rolling-up-interest-for-major-bo/

http://www.tribune.ie/business/article/2009/mar/01/banks-finally-at-breaking-point-with-developers/

johnnyskeleton

K-9 wrote: »

On top of that, Banks will start calling in debts.

http://www.tribune.ie/business/article/2009/mar/01/ulster-bank-stops-rolling-up-interest-for-major-bo/

http://www.tribune.ie/business/article/2009/mar/01/banks-finally-at-breaking-point-with-developers/

I'll believe that when I see it, to be honest. What with the recap proposal of a 12 month moratorium, and the cozy deals with the developers, it is only the BTL, small time developers and sub prime occupiers that will be chased.

SparkyLarks

K-9 wrote: »

On top of that, Banks will start calling in debts.

http://www.tribune.ie/business/article/2009/mar/01/ulster-bank-stops-rolling-up-interest-for-major-bo/

http://www.tribune.ie/business/article/2009/mar/01/banks-finally-at-breaking-point-with-developers/

And what do the bank want with a load of property they can't sell. That is declining in Value

SkepticOne

SparkyLarks wrote: »

And what do the bank want with a load of property they can't sell. That is declining in Value

They can sell them if they get the price right. Better to get some money in than nothing.

realgem19

This article is only common sense backed up by good and thorough research.
My family in Ireland has been telling me about this housing situation for at least the past year as two are in consturction related businesses.
Currently I live in an "upside-down" mortgage, which was a reasonable mortgage for about 60% of the value of the house I've lived in for 20 years re-made just 2 years ago, as a result of divorce. I live in New England, Boston area. the area has a relatively good economy which is based on health, science and education industries in large part.
The base industry is not housing construction and new home development is only modest, no big boom.
Our economies are now global, and I know many all over the World blame the US for the mess, but it is a lot more complicated than that. The World has changed immensely in more ways that just economics in the even just past two years.
The balance has been tipped and the World is having a lot of trouble getting righted.
Loved the pilot/aircraft landing analogies. :-)

ParkRunner

I saw a first time buyers article in the Sunday Business Post Property section today and one thing that stood out was that effectively the supply of property in Dublin is going to decrease later in the year. Paul Murgatroyd of DNG was quoted as saying that first time buyers:

"...want to be within close proximity of the city centre and in a location with good transport links such as the Luas or the Dart"

Michael Grehan MD of Sherry Fitzgerald also said that builders have halted construction, so it's to be expected that there's going to be a shortage of apartments and starter homes in the next couple of years.

The article also says that the number of second hand houses currently for sale around the country was examined and only 1.2% of stock was located in Dublin with 6.1% in Roscommon. This was a Goodbody Stockbrokers research report.

From following prices in the market myself I have seen the affordability of houses and apartments improve in areas like Dublin 15, Balbriggan, Tallaght, Clondalkin etc, but areas which would perhaps attract first time buyers more readily are indeed sticking in their asking prices at least.

While the less desireable areas to buy will continue to improve in terms of affordability in my opinion, there must be a sizeable number of first time buyers out there who did not buy into the property frenzy during the celtic tiger and would like to buy in the near future.

Given the state of the economy, rising unemployment and the difficulties in getting a mortgage these days I would be skeptical of the Business Post article but I can see some merit in the argument that prices in the more desireable areas of Dublin will not fall by much given the presence of a sizeable number of first time buyers and the decreasing supply of property in these areas.

bobbbb

EF wrote: »

6.1% in Roscommon.

Now thats a place, along with Longford (and any other place outside the major cities for that matter) where they should just knock down the houses for sale. Nobody will ever buy them now.

Is there a breakdown anywhere of property for sale by county?

oceanclub

EF wrote: »

Given the state of the economy, rising unemployment and the difficulties in getting a mortgage these days I would be skeptical of the Business Post article

No way?

Really?

You're skeptical of an article in a property supplement, funded by estate agents, that quotes estate agents?

Geddouttahere.

P.

ParkRunner

oceanclub wrote: »

No way?

Really?

You're skeptical of an article in a property supplement, funded by estate agents, that quotes estate agents?

Geddouttahere.

P.

Point taken but the main reason for my post is that I can see some "merit in the argument that prices in the more desireable areas of Dublin will not fall by much given the presence of a sizeable number of first time buyers and the decreasing supply of property in these areas."

oceanclub

EF wrote: »

Point taken but the main reason for my post is that I can see some "merit in the argument that prices in the more desireable areas of Dublin will not fall by much given the presence of a sizeable number of first time buyers and the decreasing supply of property in these areas."

Um, but "prices in the desireable areas of Dublin" have already fallen by much. This is a bull**** argument - that is, the same old argument from the vested interests and property "journalists" still desperately clinging onto hope (and their job).

Here's a thread based on an Indo article on the top 10 weakest property markets in Ireland from January of this year:

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=17534

Number 4 and 5 are South County Dublin and City! Down 9% in three months.

The fact is, these were places where property hysteria sent prices up the most during the bubble. Hence, they'll come down the worst.

P.

Calina

bobbbb wrote: »

Is there a breakdown anywhere of property for sale by county?

There are figures on the DAFT website but not, as far as I know, in handy tabular form.

The daftwatch site might have them too.

ParkRunner

oceanclub wrote: »

Um, but "prices in the desireable areas of Dublin" have already fallen by much. This is a bull**** argument - that is, the same old argument from the vested interests and property "journalists" still desperately clinging onto hope (and their job).

Here's a thread based on an Indo article on the top 10 weakest property markets in Ireland from January of this year:

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=17534

Number 4 and 5 are South County Dublin and City! Down 9% in three months.

The fact is, these were places where property hysteria sent prices up the most during the bubble. Hence, they'll come down the worst.

P.

I hope you are right. The area I am interested in is Dublin 3 and there are only 10 two bedroom properties being advertised on daft for under €250k, which still about 10 times the take home pay of an average industrial worker

ZYX

oceanclub wrote: »

Um, but "prices in the desireable areas of Dublin" have already fallen by much. This is a bull**** argument - that is, the same old argument from the vested interests and property "journalists" still desperately clinging onto hope (and their job).


P.

Surely the point is these have fallen the most so are less likely to fall further.

"North Dublin prices are believed to have fallen by as much as 37 per cent, with grander suburbs such as Howth being particularly badly hit"

Allowing for inflation it means prices here have fallen about 50% and in grander suburbs by much more. The argument would be that prices here are likely to fall less from now on than somewhere like Offaly or Roscommon, which fail to make the top ten.

gurramok

The 'grander' suburbs had the highest climb in prices than the Offaly gaff. Sure Biffo will help Offaly

bobbbb

I doubt anyone here will be buying in the grander suburbs ever anyway.

martian1980

bobbbb wrote: »

I doubt anyone here will be buying in the grander suburbs ever anyway.

why is that?

silverharp

EF wrote: »

I hope you are right. The area I am interested in is Dublin 3 and there are only 10 two bedroom properties being advertised on daft for under €250k, which still about 10 times the take home pay of an average industrial worker

I dont know, compare a mature area in D6/D4 v a new estate in outer dublin. I would say the greatest % decrease would be in the areas where people objectively dont want to live or are all chucked out because they cant afford their mortgages.

asdasd

why is that?

everybody who posts on the interweb is poor. Fact.

asdasd

asdasd wrote: »

everybody who posts on the interweb is poor. Fact.

It's because we're not members of the right golf club! :pac:

BendiBus

Deleted User wrote: »

It's because we're not members of the right golf club! :pac:

But we're members of boards.ie. We're bigger than the masons. :pac:

ronbyrne2005

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0310/1224242572243.html


THE HIGH Court yesterday granted possession of a family home in Dublin to Bank of Scotland (Ireland), even though the owner had paid for the property in full.

The family had purchased the home from fugitive solicitor Michael Lynn, who had given an undertaking to lodge the proceedings of the sale with Bank of Scotland (Ireland). However, the court heard that Mr Lynn had not done this.
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The court was told that the family was unable to use the Law Society’s solicitor compensation fund, which compensates people if their solicitor is found to have acted dishonestly with their money, as Mr Lynn had acted as the vendor and not the family’s solicitor in the case.

Poor family.:(

silverharp

ronbyrne2005 wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0310/1224242572243.html


THE HIGH Court yesterday granted possession of a family home in Dublin to Bank of Scotland (Ireland), even though the owner had paid for the property in full.

The family had purchased the home from fugitive solicitor Michael Lynn, who had given an undertaking to lodge the proceedings of the sale with Bank of Scotland (Ireland). However, the court heard that Mr Lynn had not done this.
...................................................................
...........................................
....................................



The court was told that the family was unable to use the Law Society’s solicitor compensation fund, which compensates people if their solicitor is found to have acted dishonestly with their money, as Mr Lynn had acted as the vendor and not the family’s solicitor in the case.

Poor family.:(

Christ , a baseball bat with rusty nails would be too good for that guy.

mary70

Gosh!! That's got me thinking as I had been thinking of buying a house in Cork in the next few months but am wondering now if I should wait a little longer for fear of being saddled with negative equity.
You wrote a really comprehensive article.

mary70

Not sure how keen I would be buying a house that has been repossessed by the bank. I'd feel that the original owners would have huge resentment and feel that I was in 'THEIR' house. Maybe I'm superstitious but I wouldn't be happy about it.

K-9

mary70 wrote: »

Not sure how keen I would be buying a house that has been repossessed by the bank. I'd feel that the original owners would have huge resentment and feel that I was in 'THEIR' house. Maybe I'm superstitious but I wouldn't be happy about it.

Know what you mean. Probably goes back to the Famine and also the Boycot days?

whizzbang

mary70 wrote: »

Not sure how keen I would be buying a house that has been repossessed by the bank. I'd feel that the original owners would have huge resentment and feel that I was in 'THEIR' house. Maybe I'm superstitious but I wouldn't be happy about it.

I don't think I'd have a problem with it, unless they moved in next door or something.