Housing Bubble Bursting

bobbiw

asdasd wrote: »

eh, no. Totally incorrect. People die every year. Housing becomes available every year. FTB's dont have to buy new houses, but without new buyers the price of housing collapses.

I love the way on these boards we have people who are hoping for their first home and yet claim to have more knowledge about property markets than people who have owned 20.

If you dont own a house, if you have never owned a company, if you have never ran multiple investment properties in multiple different property markets well then why do you think you have any knowlege about what is happening now.

In the 80s there were few FTBs there certainly wasnt enought to call it a market and only the wealthy people entering the market did so.

People who never of age in the 80s have yet to see what could happen.

Given the stupidity of the irish goverment and their decesion to shore up their funds as opposed to any economic stimulation just watch what happens in the next budget.

They will do everything that they couldnt do in the interim budget, they will increase all taxation. They will create a property tax, they will reduce the payments for unemployment, they will reduce child allowance.

Dont belive me look at the figures coming out about their shortfall in revenue.

Who will pay for it, they wont, you will.

asdasd

I love the way on these boards we have people who are hoping for their first home and yet claim to have more knowledge about property markets than people who have owned 20.

I own property you silly boy. Although not in Ireland. Bought a few years ago and I dont care about equity, because whatever I lose in equity I gain in the reduction of equity of the higher priced house I intend to move onto in the next year, or so. Probably so.

If you dont own a house, if you have never owned a company, if you have never ran multiple investment properties in multiple different property markets well then why do you think you have any knowlege about what is happening now.

Have owned two houses in two different countries, and owned a company ( which failed, unfortunately) . Not that that matters anyway. I can easily tell you what is happening were I in neither position. It is economics.

In the 80s there were few FTBs there certainly wasnt enought to call it a market and only the wealthy people entering the market did so.

People who never of age in the 80s have yet to see what could happen.

In the 80's as I have already said 80% of the population owned a house. Factory workers owned houses. Bus drivers owned houses. All public servants owned houses.

Who will pay for it, they wont, you will.

Right? So what will that mean. If real take home pay falls will housing

a) rise, or
b) fall

and the answer is b).

most of your nonsense is ill educated uneconomic claptrap. FTBs set the price of the entire market - the price housing,like land, is set at the margins.

Did you make money in property during an unsustainable boom, well bully for you. A monkey could have done that - but it is specifically because economic illiterates bought so much that we are in this mess. A mess that has only just begun.

bobbbb

Deleted User wrote: »

So do I, but I'm certain that the world will be a different place afterwards.

The days of getting rich by buying houses and selling them on are over.

Overdoing a bit there arent you.

Its a recession. Not the end of the world.
They've been around longer than we have.
Google them.

asdasd

They've been around longer than we have.

Dinosaur recessions?

bobbiw

Ireland never had a recession in the past.

The 80s were just a continuation of the past. The first boom was in the 90s, there was never a boom before or even prosperity.

It did get crazy, people all stuck up and acting like they were better than the next person. Talking about post codes and all that crap.

The recession will end and probobly by mid 2010 or a little later.

Ireland will be slower to recover than other countries but it will catch up.

bobbbb

bobbbb wrote: »

Overdoing a bit there arent you.

Its a recession. Not the end of the world.
They've been around longer than we have.
Google them.

I've lived through a couple of minor recessions already, this is different! it's a depression in the making, caused by unbelievible greed in the financial sector and followed by many amateur property investors who will/are being burned by falling values.

bobbbb

Deleted User wrote: »

I've lived through a couple of minor recessions already, this is different! it's a depression in the making, caused by unbelievible greed in the financial sector and followed by many amateur property investors who will/are being burned by falling values.

You're being overly dramatic now.
Calm down. Its not the end of the world.
Do some research on recessions and settle your mind.

Everytime anything good or bad happens in Ireland people think its different this time. What is it with Irish people?

asdasd

Everytime anything good or bad happens in Ireland people think its different this time. What is it with Irish people?

the, um, facts. that this is in fact the greatest recession since WWII for most countries, already.

bobbbb

asdasd wrote: »

the, um, facts. that this is in fact the greatest recession since WWII for most countries, already.

Its still just a recession.
And its nowhere near as bad as the 80s
Ask anyone which they would prefer.

bobbbb

bobbbb wrote: »

Its still just a recession.
And its nowhere near as bad as the 80s

YET!

bobbbb

Deleted User wrote: »

YET!

Now you have a crystal ball do you? Tell us. Exactly how bad is it going to get.
Might as well tell us because none of the rest of us know.

johnnyskeleton

bobbiw wrote:

I love the way on these boards we have people who are hoping for their first home and yet claim to have more knowledge about property markets than people who have owned 20.

bobbiw wrote: »

Ireland never had a recession in the past.

The 80s were just a continuation of the past. The first boom was in the 90s, there was never a boom before or even prosperity.

Seriously dude, if you're going to make it up as you go along, at least be consistent about it.

johnnyskeleton

bobbbb wrote: »

Do some research on recessions and settle your mind.

Ok, like for example historical trends of house prices as a multiple of income, or how about the tendency for all the lossess of a bubble to be eradicated during a bust?

If more people listened to you, house prices would actually be selling at affordable prices. Keep it up.

asdasd

Now you have a crystal ball do you? Tell us. Exactly how bad is it going to get.
Might as well tell us because none of the rest of us know.

I suspect that in answering this may be like trying to teach a pig to sing. That doesnt work. And it annoys the teacher and the pig. Pigs can't sing.

I say that because, as I already pointed out in this thread, most years in the Eighties were positive growth, albeit weak growth.

2008, and 2009 will have greater negative growth than any year in the 80's, and 2009 looks set to be the greatest decline since independence.

So this recession is qualitatively worse than the Eighties.

( I know this won't work)

From The Economist

The extent of downside risk to the Irish economy is without precedent. Even the Economist Intelligence Unit's current forecast of four successive years of negative economic growth up to 2011 may prove optimistic.

bobbbb

bobbbb wrote: »

Now you have a crystal ball do you? Tell us. Exactly how bad is it going to get.
Might as well tell us because none of the rest of us know.

OK, first a disclaimer: I'm not an economist!

Firstly, unemployment is still rapidly rising, part of the knock-on effect of the reduction of the construction industry.
Government revenue has been heavily skewed to "milking" the housing market - there is now a huge hole in their finances.
Taxes are rising and will continue to rise, reducing the money in peoples pockets.
Wages are falling (for many) as well as overtime bonuses etc, even less money in peoples pockets.

Prices of (moter) fuel have NOT fallen and look like increasing, even less money in peoples pockets.
Interest rates are at an all time low, this cancels out most of the loss of income for people with large mortgages.

Banks are unwilling to lend as freely as they did in the past, less money available to purchase a house.

Unemployment will continue to rise as foreign companies take their "work home" or find somewhere cheaper to get it done.

All of this means a period of deflation until the country is competative again.

Final sting in the tail is that when interest rates start to rise, many homeowners (with huge mortgages) will be unable to pay the mortgage at all.

Then prices will crash!

bobbbb

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Ok, like for example historical trends of house prices as a multiple of income, or how about the tendency for all the lossess of a bubble to be eradicated during a bust?

If more people listened to you, house prices would actually be selling at affordable prices. Keep it up.

Answer this.
Would you prefer to live now or back in the 80s?

Recessions end. Economies recover. House prices are not all there is to a recession.

Recession, house price crash or whatever, people are still very well off in Ireland right now. over €1000 a month plus rent allowance for those unfortunate enough to not be able to get a job. When we all go back to meeting all our mates (not just 1 or 2 of them) on a Tuesday in the dole office, then we can say its a bad recession.

I'll say it again.
During recessions there is a tendency for people to think it will never end and this one is the worst one ever.
Its not your fault you feel this way. Its just how people feel during recessions. They feel the opposite in a boom.

asdasd

Would you prefer to live now or back in the 80s?

unemployment in the 1980's peaked at 20%. it will get to 15% this year, the 2nd of 4 recessionary years according to the EIU. So at least 20%.

bobbbb

asdasd wrote: »

unemployment in the 1980's peaked at 20%. it will get to 15% this year, the 2nd of 4 recessionary years according to the EIU. So at least 20%.

Open your eyes and look around you.
Were you an adult in the late 80's? Which was the better time?

asdasd

Open your eyes and look around you.
Were you an adult in the late 80's? Which was the better time?
bobbbb is offline Report Post Reply With Quote

I was a child in the 1980's. As it happened I knew no unemployed adult as my parents are middle class. Structural unemplyment in the 1980's was concentrated in the unskilled.

Not so now.

Pigs can't sing. I have

1) Provided evidence that 1980's had no recession in it's proper definition with the exception of one year.
2) Evidence that 2009 wil be the worst year on record.
3) A respected economics link - the The Economist - predicting 4 years of economic recession for Ireland.
4) Pointed out that unemployment will therefore meet, or exceed the 1980's level.

Your response is that I should "look around"


I knew this was a mistake.

Pigs cant sing.

asdasd

asdasd wrote: »

I suspect that in answering this may be like trying to teach a pig to sing. That doesnt work. And it annoys the teacher and the pig. Pigs can't sing.

I say that because, as I already pointed out in this thread, most years in the Eighties were positive growth, albeit weak growth.

2008, and 2009 will have greater negative growth than any year in the 80's, and 2009 looks set to be the greatest decline since independence.

So this recession is qualitatively worse than the Eighties.

( I know this won't work)

From The Economist

http://www.singingpig.co.uk

You're right, but I can only half answer the question as I've no idea exactly how bad it'll be, just that it will be bad!

bobbbb

Deleted User wrote: »

http://www.singingpig.co.uk

You're right, but I can only half answer the question as I've no idea exactly how bad it'll be, just that it will be bad!

Maybe you should move to Dublin.
Obviously it must be worse wherever you are.
Roads are still jammed in rush hour with people going to work.
Buses and trains jammed too.
The airport is hopping all the time.

It wasnt like that in the 80's.

bobbbb

bobbbb wrote: »

Maybe you should move to Dublin.
Obviously it must be worse wherever you are.
Roads are still jammed in rush hour with people going to work.
Buses and trains jammed too.
The airport is hopping all the time.

It wasnt like that in the 80's.

Currently commuting from Tallaght to Santry via M50. I live here half the time...

The jam is a direct resault of crap planning, it was much worse a couple of years ago!

asdasd

this is a debate of anecdote vs statistics.

Nevetheless

Roads are still jammed in rush hour with people going to work.
Buses and trains jammed too.
The airport is hopping all the time.

More cars on the road, compared to the eighties as more workers can afford cars.
More people in Ireland.
Flights are much cheaper in real terms.

K-9

asdasd wrote: »

this is a debate of anecdote vs statistics.

Indeed, bobbbb any stats to back up your opinion?

bobbbb

asdasd wrote: »

this is a debate of anecdote vs statistics.

Nevetheless



More cars on the road Going to work, compared to the eighties as more workers can afford cars.
More people in Ireland.
Flights are much cheaper in real terms.

Exactly. People are much better off arent they.

More people unemployed, but a hell of a lot mroe people employed.
There are still plenty of jobs for skilled labour here and in the UK (a 1 hour flight for a tenner away). Unskilled labour and construction will feel the brunt of this recession as always.

If you look into it you'll find that those 3 groups probably make up 90% of those unemployed.

K-9 wrote: »

Indeed, bobbbb any stats to back up your opinion?

What stats can back up the future? None. Thats crystal ball territory.
Its back you need to be looking. And at the current position.
Just google recession and read all about them. Its not hard to do now is it.
There are plenty to choose from.


Start here to find out all the recessions and then look up individual ones properly.
There are literally stacks of books on the subject. Read them. Dont rely on the internet only.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_Kingdom

The only thing that will show some people the cyclical nature of boom, bust times is for them to live through
a couple of them and get some life experience. Too many people believe everything they read on the internet as long as it supports their viewpoint. Its natural to worry during a recession. You cant help it. Some people just cant help it. Its the opposite of the euphoria of a boom. Education about other economic crisis and experience o them will get you through.

bobbbb

Deleted User wrote: »

Currently commuting from Tallaght to Santry via M50. I live here half the time...

The jam is a direct resault of crap planning, it was much worse a couple of years ago!

So you can see the amount of people at work then. Good.

SkepticOne

asdasd wrote: »

More people in Ireland.
Flights are much cheaper in real terms.

This is very true. In the 80's a flight to London would have cost you the equivalent of 400 to 500 euros in today's money. There was very little open competition in those days so prices were high.

bobbbb

SkepticOne wrote: »

This is very true. In the 80's a flight to London would have cost you the equivalent of 400 to 500 euros in today's money. There was very little open competition in those days so prices were high.

Over a months wages. :eek:

I remember well the boat and bus to london. £39

asdasd

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of..._United_States

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...United_Kingdom

The only thing that will show some people the cyclical nature of boom, bust times is for them to live through
a couple of them and get some life experience. Too many people believe everything they read on the internet as long as it supports their viewpoint. Its natural to worry during a recession. You cant help it. Some people just cant help it. Its the opposite of the euphoria of a boom. Education about other economic crisis and experience o them will get you through.

so your statistics - which were for the uk and the us , not ireland - show that this recession is forecast to be the worst sice the depression in the US, and the worst since 1919 in the UK. Which is what we said.

bobbbb

asdasd wrote: »

so your statistics - which were for the uk and the us , not ireland - show that this recession is forecast to be the worst sice the depression in the US, and the worst since 1919 in the UK. Which is what we said.

They are not my statistics. I provided them for you as a starting point to go and learn about recessions.

I cant believe there are still people around saying Ireland is different. Did you not learn that lesson after the housing bubble?
Ireland is no different to any other country. We have a huge deficit now. Recession will end. It will get sorted. And we'll be motoring along with the rest of the world again. Its a natural economic cycle. If the UK recovers quicker, go there. You're not trapped. Even now, if you are skilled you should be able to get a job here or if not in the UK.

Forecast means nothing in economics. You can find forecasts to suit any opinion.

Let me ask you the question you dont want to answer.
Now that we are deep into this recession do you think life is worse than it was in the 80s recession?