Housing Bubble Bursting

oceanclub

whizzbang wrote: »

They aren't even sold, just sale agreed. they are scraping the bottom of the barrel alright!

HAI I HAZ SOLD ZUM HOUSES

P.

Gurgle

bangersandmash wrote: »

a large advert from a well-known agency

And you have to ask whether its reality or a sales pitch?

bangersandmash

Gurgle wrote: »

And you have to ask whether its reality or a sales pitch?

Of course it's a sales pitch, that's the entire purpose of the supplement. The more interesting aspect is that the agency has been reduced to this kind of tactic.

It's like the desperate "pyramid scheme" traders who have not yet made back their investment, desperately trying to offload their remaining shares to the few remaining mugs out there.

Unfortunately for them the mugs are skint!

bangersandmash

Today's Daft rental report shows an acute drop in city rents.

Average house rental prices have fallen to their lowest levels in almost a decade according to new research published this morning.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/1117/housing.html
http://www.daft.ie/report/

bangersandmash

More estate agent twaddle in the Business Post today. Once again car salesmen are asked for their opinion about whether it's a good time to buy cars. And surprisingly it turns out to be the case.

I'm just glad that NAMA turned out so well in the end and is behind us now. Roll on the budget :rolleyes:

“‘A lot of the things that people were worried about earlier in the year, like Lisbon and Nama, are now behind us, and soon we will have the budget over and done with,” he said.

Duckjob

Secondhand apartments are also selling, provided they’re priced below €350,000 for a two-bed and below €200,000 for a one-bed. But they won’t shift for anything above those levels.

Insidious spin whose sole purpose is to get you to accept €350,000 as an reasonable figure for a 2 bedroom apt.

Give it a rest lads, ffs.

jmayo

Duckjob wrote: »

Insidious spin whose sole purpose is to get you to accept €350,000 as an reasonable figure for a 2 bedroom apt.

Give it a rest lads, ffs.

Well according to frank fahey :rolleyes:

bangersandmash

So Lenihan signalled this afteroon that the government has accepted the recommendations of the Commission on Taxation on a property tax in the short-term.

I think recent talk of bottoming-out in the market may have been premature.

oceanclub

bangersandmash wrote: »

So Lenihan signalled this afteroon that the government has accepted the recommendations of the Commission on Taxation on a property tax in the short-term.

I think recent talk of bottoming-out in the market may have been premature.

Maybe Brian reads this forum , saw all these people about to buy before the market got too dear again, and thought he would bring in a price stabilising measure.

P.

bangersandmash

oceanclub wrote: »

Maybe Brian reads this forum , saw all these people about to buy before the market got too dear again, and thought he would bring in a price stabilising measure.

That must be it

I notice RTE have already highlighted the mortgage relief incentive.

In a move to encourage people to buy a house over the next three years, qualifying loans taken out before 1 July 2011 will receive mortgage relief at current levels for seven years.

I suppose if they're going to pander to the car industry, the vintners and the greens, they might as well throw a bone to the construction lobby.

mrsexy

government are 2 blame imo

Highly Salami

According to an index by Sherry Fitzgerald, house prices have dropped by 20% last year, bringing the total drop since summer '06 to 45%.
see http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/house-prices-fall-by-over-20-in-2009-440644.html
Predictions have generally been for a price drop of between 40 and 50% from peak, so are prices now about to go up?

Highly Salami

Highly Salami wrote: »

Predictions have generally been for a price drop of between 40 and 50% from peak, so are prices now about to go up?

While there is a shortage of mortgage money, there will be no rise in prices.
As it is there are still nore sellers than buyers and that us unlikely to change for some time.
If anything further falls are expected!

Agent J

Highly Salami wrote: »

According to an index by Sherry Fitzgerald, house prices have dropped by 20% last year, bringing the total drop since summer '06 to 45%.
see http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/house-prices-fall-by-over-20-in-2009-440644.html
Predictions have generally been for a price drop of between 40 and 50% from peak, so are prices now about to go up?

As yourself who is supplying the information and why.

bangersandmash

Highly Salami wrote: »

According to an index by Sherry Fitzgerald, house prices have dropped by 20% last year, bringing the total drop since summer '06 to 45%.
see http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/house-prices-fall-by-over-20-in-2009-440644.html
Predictions have generally been for a price drop of between 40 and 50% from peak, so are prices now about to go up?

I'd take any "index" from that particular source with a huge grain of salt. This particular agency went from stoking the boom, to downplaying the idea of any price drops, and now seemingly to exaggerating the decline in prices to convince people that we're at the bottom.

It's hard to reconcile the supposed 45.7% drop in Dublin price with most of the houses advertised on their site and comparable values from 2006. The main problem is that the figures say nothing about volume. It's quite possible that the small number of properties that have sold did so at 40-50% below peak prices, leaving the rest of the over-priced chaff.

If you're in any doubt just look at last year's index predicting "enhanced activity levels in the weeks and months ahead". Sounds familiar...

oceanclub

Highly Salami wrote: »

According to an index by Sherry Fitzgerald, house prices have dropped by 20% last year, bringing the total drop since summer '06 to 45%.
see http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/house-prices-fall-by-over-20-in-2009-440644.html
Predictions have generally been for a price drop of between 40 and 50% from peak, so are prices now about to go up?

1 out of 3 people under 25 are unemployed. What do you think?

P.

oceanclub

Liz O'Kane was on Moncrieff on Newstalk today to announce she's training to become a children's tennis coach. I reckon that's the third horseman of the negative equity apocalypse.

P.

Agent J

oceanclub wrote: »

Liz O'Kane was on Moncrieff on Newstalk today to announce she's training to become a children's tennis coach. I reckon that's the third horseman of the negative equity apocalypse.

P.

Who were the 1st 2 horsemen out of interest?

Highly Salami

oceanclub wrote: »

1 out of 3 people under 25 are unemployed. What do you think?

P.

I think there will be more price falls this year, but the economy is supposed to improve in the 2nd half so the property market should follow soon after.

spockety

Highly Salami wrote: »

I think there will be more price falls this year, but the economy is supposed to improve in the 2nd half so the property market should follow soon after.

What stimulus is going to improve the economy in the 2nd half of 2010?

Or is this just some think thank hand waving that will inevitably prove incorrect?

The only person I would listen to is Morgan Kelly, and he is looking increasingly correct in his assertion that we will see prices fall up to 80% from their bubble peak values.

Highly Salami

spockety wrote: »

What stimulus is going to improve the economy in the 2nd half of 2010?
.

I think a recovery in the global economy (due to economic stimulus by Fed, ECB etc.) will have a knock-on affect in improving Ireland's economy, since we are part of the global economy,
Davy's seem to think so, http://www.breakingnews.ie/business/davy-predicts-end-of-recession-early-this-year-440731.html

whizzbang

Highly Salami wrote: »

I think a recovery in the global economy (due to economic stimulus by Fed, ECB etc.) will have a knock-on affect in improving Ireland's economy, since we are part of the global economy,
Davy's seem to think so, http://www.breakingnews.ie/business/davy-predicts-end-of-recession-early-this-year-440731.html

Ireland's woes are to do with our over extension on debt, not the world economy. the world economy recovering will help us a little bit but the related increase in the ECB interest rates will hit us much harder.

Davy's aren't very good at forecasting

In May 2008
Davy cuts 2008 growth to 1% and 2009 to 2%
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/Irish_2/article_1013727_printer.shtml

In Oct 2008
Davy says economy will shrink by 3.5% in 2009
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1014966.shtml

We actually contracted by 7% ish in 2009.

bangersandmash

Agent J wrote: »

As yourself who is supplying the information and why.

Indeed. Which make it nice to see the print media repeating their PR practically verbatim with no critical analysis. Who needs advertising?

spockety

Highly Salami wrote: »

I think a recovery in the global economy (due to economic stimulus by Fed, ECB etc.) will have a knock-on affect in improving Ireland's economy, since we are part of the global economy,
Davy's seem to think so, http://www.breakingnews.ie/business/davy-predicts-end-of-recession-early-this-year-440731.html

Sounds interesting.

When the global economy starts to recover, what kind of impact do you think that inevitable and associated interest rate rises will have on Ireland's debt-laden economy?

Calina

Highly Salami wrote: »

I think a recovery in the global economy (due to economic stimulus by Fed, ECB etc.) will have a knock-on affect in improving Ireland's economy, since we are part of the global economy,
Davy's seem to think so, http://www.breakingnews.ie/business/davy-predicts-end-of-recession-early-this-year-440731.html

I do not agree with Davys.

A recovery in the global economy will only have a knock on effect if we can export more. Unfortunately, much of our current depression is linked to the disproportionate dependence on internal construction over the years preceding the property crash. A global recovery is not going to replace that - it reached about 20-25% of GDP at one stage and much of the growth in unemployment is from construction and property related industry segments.

The cost of doing business here is too high. What's needed is an improvement in competitivity. With property prices still too high, the only sane way for them is down. Otherwise, a recovery in the global economy is worthless to us. Our labour costs are too high right now.

In short terms, property costs too much here; it pushes up our labour costs and impacts negatively on our ability to draw FDI. Without exporting companies - which for the most part are FDI related - the global recovery will not help us.

jesus_thats_gre

Highly Salami wrote: »

Predictions have generally been for a price drop of between 40 and 50% from peak, so are prices now about to go up?

They may stop dropping soon but why do they have to start going up again? Why can't they just stay around the level that they are at now or maybe grow at a rate of just a percent or two a year?

I don't understand why this whole country is still so obsessed with property in general.

Brian.Stephens

jesus_thats_gre wrote: »

They may stop dropping soon but why do they have to start going up again? Why can't they just stay around the level that they are at now or maybe grow at a rate of just a percent or two a year?

I don't understand why this whole country is still so obsessed with property in general.

Do you think hosue prices will drop another 15% by december 2010

bangersandmash

Brian.Stephens wrote: »

Do you think hosue prices will drop another 15% by december 2010

Apparently Bloxham seem to think so, although their past predictions haven't been stellar and it's hard to see their reasoning for increases in 2011.

But that increase will only pare back a fraction of the falls yet to be seen in 2010 so this year will end with prices still 10-15pc on average below those at the start of the year. He expects Dublin to again record the biggest decline.

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/asking-prices-for-houses-fell-19pc-last-year-2002715.html

Fr0g

Prices will continue drop in 2010 due to lower incomes and higher taxes. If interest rates rise in 2011 then there will be further drops if not it will probably bottom out in 2011. But there is nothing to suggest that the market will turn around and shoot back up again. They may rise at 1/2% per year. Personally I think will keep dropping but at a slower pace. Just my opinion.