Housing Bubble Bursting

Highly Salami

Guell72 wrote: »

....The will realize what they need to do to get it moving and will act....

Would making properties cheaper to buyers be part of the plans to get property moving?

Caoimhín

Guell72 wrote: »

You can see them for a lot less than that.

Im not arguing the rights and wrongs here or even what any property is worth. Im just offering my predictions of what will happen next. I think whichever government is in power will want to get property moving. Everything they have done so far has put the breaks on. The will realize what they need to do to get it moving and will act.

I have a little inside info on some discussions going on now and this seems to be what is being planned.

Well if the retards are trying to re-inflate the asset bubble that landed us in this shoite then i will personally retake the GPO.

Guell72

Caoimhín wrote: »

Well if the retards are trying to re-inflate the asset bubble that landed us in this shoite then i will personally retake the GPO.

You may have to

I dont think they intend to re-inflate the bubble. Just patch the leak (which is peoples reluctance to spend money on property at all).

Caoimhín

Guell72 wrote: »

You may have to

I dont think they intend to re-inflate the bubble. Just patch the leak (which is peoples reluctance to spend money on property at all).

For fúcks sake, people would buy property if it was affordable. Looking at the Times property supplement would lead one to believe that some people are still in cuckoo land. WHY would any sane and reasonable person spend €500,000 on a 3 bed semi when the same money would buy a chateaux and farm in France?

AARRRGH

Caoimhín wrote: »

For fúcks sake, people would buy property if it was affordable. Looking at the Times property supplement would lead one to believe that some people are still in cuckoo land. WHY would any sane and reasonable person spend €500,000 on a 3 bed semi when the same money would buy a chateaux and farm in France?

Yeah, EA's keep saying people are offering ridiculously low money for property these days. But it's not that the offers are ridiculously low, it's that (many) buyers are now more educated and understand a three bed in Swords isn't worth anything close to 250k, nevermind 350k or 450k or whatever crazy money they used to go for.

Guell72

Caoimhín wrote: »

For fúcks sake, people would buy property if it was affordable. Looking at the Times property supplement would lead one to believe that some people are still in cuckoo land. WHY would any sane and reasonable person spend €500,000 on a 3 bed semi when the same money would buy a chateaux and farm in France?

Property is affordable. You dont have to buy that 500k house. You can buy a cheaper house now. Thats why prices are falling.

People arent staying out of the market now because they cant afford it. They are staying out because they are terrified for their jobs and of property prices falling more.
Investors are staying out because they are afraid of more taxes and they see Interest relief going down.

Even if there is a recovery in the economy, most people wont buy property under those conditions.

If the government want to solve this, its very easy to get the market moving again. If they dont want the market to start moving again, they can just continue as they are and people wont buy property. One thing is certain, uncertainty is the best brake on the sale of property.

I know where im putting my bets for the next move on Interest relief and stamp duty.

Caoimhín

Guell72 wrote: »

Property is affordable. You dont have to buy that 500k house. You can buy a cheaper house now. Thats why prices are falling.

People arent staying out of the market now because they cant afford it. They are staying out because they are terrified for their jobs and of property prices falling more.
Investors are staying out because they are afraid of more taxes and they see Interest relief going down.

Even if there is a recovery in the economy, most people wont buy property under those conditions.

If the government want to solve this, its very easy to get the market moving again. If they dont want the market to start moving again, they can just continue as they are and people wont buy property. One thing is certain, uncertainty is the best brake on the sale of property.

I know where im putting my bets for the next move on Interest relief and stamp duty.

I simply do not understand your mentality. You speak of the "market" like it is all fun and games, easy way to make a few quid. We are talking about the basic human right of shelter here. It is not a fúcking casino or the stock market! No bloody wonder people are up to their necks in a lifetime of debt and slavery to pay for a badly built house in a ****e development, loolas like you talking about getting the "morket" going again.

THERE ARE 300,000 EMPTY, SEMI-DERELICT HOUSES IN THIS SHOITE HOLE OF A COUNTRY!!

AARRRGH

Guell72 wrote: »

Property is affordable.

That's a very subjective statement.

The reality is property is still ridiculously overpriced (you shuoldn't compare current prices to the bubble) and people are beginning to realise this.

The other factors you mention (risk of job loss, etc.) are relevant.

Personally I consider what's happening now a "correction" and think overall it's a good thing (in the long term, I understand it is painful for many in the short to medium term).

Guell72

Caoimhín wrote: »

I simply do not understand your mentality. You speak of the "market" like it is all fun and games, easy way to make a few quid. We are talking about the basic human right of shelter here. It is not a fúcking casino or the stock market! No bloody wonder people are up to their necks in a lifetime of debt and slavery to pay for a badly built house in a ****e development, loolas like you talking about getting the "morket" going again.

THERE ARE 300,000 EMPTY, SEMI-DERELICT HOUSES IN THIS SHOITE HOLE OF A COUNTRY!!

Obviously you're getting a little emotional here.
Im not saying I want it to happen. Just saying what I believe will happen.

And yes, it is a market. I dont know how else you would like me to describe the buying and selling of property. How would you describe it?

Lets just relax and forget about it now and see what the rest of the year brings. If you see stamp duty reducing, TRS going up or Interest relief for
investors going up or even a new FTB grant ... well then you'll know whats going on.

Caoimhín

Guell72 wrote: »

Obviously you're getting a little emotional here.
Im not saying I want it to happen. Just saying what I believe will happen.

And yes, it is a market. I dont know how else you would like me to describe the buying and selling of property. How would you describe it?

Lets just relax and forget about it now and see what the rest of the year brings. If you see stamp duty reducing, TRS going up or Interest relief for
investors going up or even a new FTB grant ... well then you'll know whats going on.

Well it písses me off that some people seek to gain from the misery of others. And to be honest, the corrupt retards will indeed throw every incentive at the vested interests to get the "morket" going again but to little avail.

You will have to actually start working to make a living my boy.

Guell72

Caoimhín wrote: »

Well it písses me off that some people seek to gain from the misery of others. And to be honest, the corrupt retards will indeed throw every incentive at the vested interests to get the "morket" going again but to little avail.

You will have to actually start working to make a living my boy.

Yes they will.
Exactly my point. We can finally agree.

Caoimhín

Guell72 wrote: »

Yes they will.
Exactly my point. We can finally agree.

You dont have a point, just received opinion.

AARRRGH

Caoimhín wrote: »

You dont have a point, just received opinion.

Judging by his other posts, I wouldn't argue with this guy as I don't think you'll get anywhere.

Agent J

On the way up we got the arguement that the market rules supreme and the government shouldnt interfere. The market will self moderate and solve all problems through supply and demand. The government stayed out and collected the tax.

On the way down we get useless ideas and schemes like this

http://www.homechoiceloan.ie/

as well as the rantings from Tom Parlon and such about the government having to "restart" the market. So their previous logic about a self moderating supply and demand market goes out the window when it begins to hurt them.

Just wait for the property taxes coming down the line...

oceanclub

Agent J wrote: »

On the way up we got the arguement that the market rules supreme and the government shouldnt interfere. The market will self moderate and solve all problems through supply and demand. The government stayed out and collected the tax.

On the way down we get useless ideas and schemes like this

http://www.homechoiceloan.ie/

as well as the rantings from Tom Parlon and such about the government having to "restart" the market. So their previous logic about a self moderating supply and demand market goes out the window when it begins to hurt them.

Just wait for the property taxes coming down the line...

Aka "socialism for rich people".

P.

jmayo

JOHNPT wrote: »

My sister is considering buying a house in Drumcondra area. What are peoples opinions now? Surely houses prices have fallen alot over last year and are good value now. Also there is not a big oversupply of houses in central Dublin so house prices here wont fall as much as places like Leitrim or Kildare. 250,000 for a 2 or 3 bed within 20 mins walk to city centre seems like good value to me. Would be interested in peoples opinion.

Good value ???
They are not good value, they are just cheaper when compared to the completly overvalued prices being paid at the peak of the bubble.
Just becuase something is cheaper does not make it "good value". :rolleyes:

Why oh why do some people think that an area or town will be immune ?
Prices are going to drop further everywhere, the only variable is more deseriable areas will drop less.

Caoimhín wrote: »

They are cheaper, not cheap.

Please go back to the, old equations of yield from rental or % of income.

Why, why, why would one consider giving ones life earnings to a concept of "value" versus bubble prices.

I have many builder friends who insist that a house/dwelling can not be sold for less than it cost to build, however, every day i meet farmers and craftsmen who bought calves/timber for a sum, reared/created a product that is NOW worth less than the initial outlay.
THEY accept the fact that they will have to sell at a loss...

+1
That always makes me luagh when some numpty comes out with "they can't possibly be sold for less than was spent building them".

Maybe if a few more of these were farmers they might cop on this is not a golden rule of commerce.

Caoimhín wrote: »

Well if the retards are trying to re-inflate the asset bubble that landed us in this shoite then i will personally retake the GPO.

Ehh sorry to have to tell you this, but this exactly the premise that NAMA will break even or make a profit is built on (sorry for the poor choice of pun) :rolleyes:

Guell72 wrote: »

Property is affordable. You dont have to buy that 500k house. You can buy a cheaper house now. Thats why prices are falling.

People arent staying out of the market now because they cant afford it. They are staying out because they are terrified for their jobs and of property prices falling more.
Investors are staying out because they are afraid of more taxes and they see Interest relief going down.

Even if there is a recovery in the economy, most people wont buy property under those conditions.

If the government want to solve this, its very easy to get the market moving again. If they dont want the market to start moving again, they can just continue as they are and people wont buy property. One thing is certain, uncertainty is the best brake on the sale of property.

I know where im putting my bets for the next move on Interest relief and stamp duty.

Affordable ?
Do you mean affordable with 40 years mortgages ?
Just because somethiing is affordable does not make it good value or a bargain.
I could afford to buy a Toyota Corolla for the same amount as you would pay for a BMW 530d.
That doesn't mean the Corolla is good value.
If I did pay that amount then it just means I am an eejit for doing so.
Thankfully most of the eejits have left the housing market either through misfortune of unemployment or lack of credit.

You are right in points about uncertainty being a big issue, but you have left out some very important points.
Prices are falling because the prices are still too high and need to go back.
Thus most people now see that and realise that it is foolish to pay too much for a crap property that should be half the price and will be before too long.

Also you forgot our banking institutions have no money to lend.

Idbatterim

My mum was pondering over selling her 2nd home (inherited) in 07, in 08 she eventually sold for 435k, had she sold in 07 she would have gotten about 500k! There are now 3 houses on the same avenue, for 305k in better condition than the one my mum sold. So if they are asking for 305k they will get high 290's! Now Im going to put this into perspective this was a 3 bed ex council house & people were prepared to pay 500k for a 3 bed ex council house do it upper! By the time the mortgage had been repaid, you would be looking at atleast €1,000,000! Im actually still stunned / appalled at how crazy things got and there are still unbelievably over the top prices being asked!

dtipp

Viewed a half-dozen houses last week.
The difference from estate agent to estate agent was amazing.

Two told us that we had to be quick if we wanted the house. Claimed there was massive interest, they already had several bids (all close to the guide price) but that the owners knew that they would at least get the guide price no problem so they were willing to wait for another couple of weeks!

One of the other estate agents claimed that he reckoned the market had bottomed out because he was very busy showing houses to people, and that he reckoned the whole business was showing strong signs of recovery.

And two estate agents told us we could underbid by at least another 15% off the guide price of the houses they were showing. And, in fairness, the guide prices seemed very reasonable - for one house in particular. They seemed to suggest that we could take our time, that the houses were going nowhere soon.

I know which estate agents I believe.
I'm going to wait two months and then view the houses with the overly-confident estate agents again. See what they say then.

Caoimhín

dtipp wrote: »

Two told us that we had to be quick if we wanted the house. Claimed there was massive interest, they already had several bids (all close to the guide price) but that the owners knew that they would at least get the guide price no problem so they were willing to wait for another couple of weeks!

One of the other estate agents claimed that he reckoned the market had bottomed out because he was very busy showing houses to people, and that he reckoned the whole business was showing strong signs of recovery.
.

I find it amazing that people can get away with this shít. If I or most other professions came out with rubbish like that to a client we would be open to litigation. Imaging a doctor, solicitor or architect or even a salesman giving you misleading for their own personal gain, they would be struck off and up in front of a judge in jig time.

Duckjob

dtipp wrote: »

Viewed a half-dozen houses last week.
The difference from estate agent to estate agent was amazing.

Two told us that we had to be quick if we wanted the house. Claimed there was massive interest, they already had several bids (all close to the guide price) but that the owners knew that they would at least get the guide price no problem so they were willing to wait for another couple of weeks!

One of the other estate agents claimed that he reckoned the market had bottomed out because he was very busy showing houses to people, and that he reckoned the whole business was showing strong signs of recovery.

And two estate agents told us we could underbid by at least another 15% off the guide price of the houses they were showing. And, in fairness, the guide prices seemed very reasonable - for one house in particular. They seemed to suggest that we could take our time, that the houses were going nowhere soon.

I know which estate agents I believe.
I'm going to wait two months and then view the houses with the overly-confident estate agents again. See what they say then.

"EAs talk up their interests" shocker.

What are people going to buy these houses in this powerful "recovery" with, air?

When we reach a situation where our economy isn't tumbling down the shi**er with-

- close to for 1/2 million unemployment
- thousands losing their jobs every week,
- banks incapable of lending
- massive overhang of property
- forced repos on the cards for many
- etc
- etc

...THEN prices might start to rise again, They haven't finished "recovering" (dropping) yet by a long shot.

oceanclub

Duckjob wrote: »

When we reach a situation where our economy isn't tumbling down the shi**er with-

- close to for 1/2 million unemployment
- thousands losing their jobs every week,
- banks incapable of lending
- massive overhang of property
- forced repos on the cards for many
- etc
- etc

...THEN prices might start to rise again, They haven't finished "recovering" (dropping) yet by a long shot.

Unfortunately, I think prices might start rising even with the above factors. I honestly think that when it comes to economic matters, most people in this country are simply sheep. They will listen to Tom Parlon and Donie Cassidy telling them rent is dead money and that there's bargains to be had. I mean, reading AskAboutMoney, you have people there specifically told that their jobs are unsafe who are going out to buy houses.

It's become a cliché to say this, but: we willingly accept the things that, in other countries, start riots. The state-owned (that is, we now own it) Anglo-Irish Bank has posted a loss of €10 billion - the largest in Irish history - that we now owe, while its former head - who still hasn't paid his loan which he took from his own bank - swans around the Docklands lunching. Meanwhile, in Greece, they're bricking up banks.

http://www.socialistunity.com/?p=5323

P.

Duckjob

Duckjob wrote: »

"EAs talk up their interests" shocker.

What are people going to buy these houses in this powerful "recovery" with, air?

- etc

...THEN prices might start to rise again, They haven't finished "recovering" (dropping) yet by a long shot.

That's one of the real issues, people are "unable" to pay the bubble prices as the banks are screwed!

But the fact that they are unfortunately still willing to pay those prices is the real problem!

This "housing crisis" will remain until potential buyers cop on and refuse to overborrow to buy property!

oceanclub

Deleted User wrote: »

But the fact that they are unfortunately still willing to pay those prices is the real problem!

Hey, don't worry, we now have a Mortgage Assistance Group to help people such as Twink get out of their mortgage problems:

http://kathleenbarrington.blogspot.com/2010/02/should-taxpayers-ride-to-rescue.html

So now people have even more incentive to be fiscally irresponsible.

We live in a country where there is absolutely no incentive to financially do the right thing.

P.

thewools

Do-more wrote: »

There must be about 300 3&4 beds built and unsold in Mullingar at present.

I just googled "Tailteann Court" the apartments that are nearing completion near the hospital, nearly fell off the chair laughing at the prices, €210,000 for a 1 bed and €260,000 for a two bed! As soon as the apartments are finished and they have completed contracts with any of the poor devils who have bought off plan then you can expect to see huge price cuts there aswell.

Seen this post from back in June 08 :rolleyes:

Now: :P

FIRST-time buyers could purchase a new two-bedroom apartment in the midlands for less than the monthly repayments on a car.

Apartments at Tailteann Court in Mullingar, Co Westmeath, will go on sale for as little as €69,950 this weekend.

The price of owning a home in the development has fallen by almost two-thirds since they first came on the market for €202,000.

Originally the developer built 63 apartments at Tailteann Court in Irishtown but failed to sell a single one before National Irish Bank appointed the receiver on foot of debts of €7.8m.

Now receiver John McStay hopes to recoup €2m by selling 28 remaining apartments at discounts of between 55pc and 63pc of their original prices.

Prices start at €69,950 for one-bedroom apartments, €82,450 for two-bedroom units and €98,000 for three-bed units.

This means if a person were to take out a mortgage of €75,900, their net payments would be only €264.85 per month. This compares to a €15,000 car loan where the repayments would be €380.44.

Managing director of Irish Mortgage Corporation and broker to the scheme Frank Conway said the repayment was "among the lowest" he had seen.

"Certainly with values such as this, it is increasingly difficult to see prices going much lower. We have clearly broken the €100,000 price level for properties in major towns."

Strong interest has already been shown in the properties, according to local estate agent Aidan Davitt of Sherry FitzGerald Davitt & Davitt.

"There is relatively little overhang of new apartments because development work was postponed for a number of years due to the construction of a new sewage service," he added.

With average second-hand Mullingar flats now selling for around €100,000, he says local prices have fallen by about 50pc from their peak.

Appeal

Mr Davitt also expects the Tailteann units will appeal to investors who will not have to pay stamp duty as the flats are priced below the €127,000 threshold.

The smallest one-bedroom apartment is approximately 48sqm while the largest three-bedroom unit at 117sqm.

Mr McStay believes Mullingar's close proximity to Dublin -- and a direct train service -- will also make the apartments an attractive prospect for commuters.

Mr McStay has enlisted the Irish Mortgage Corporation to arrange mortgages of up to 92pc of the property prices for first-time buyers and up to 75pc of the price for investors who aim to rent them out.

If you're buying in Mullingar and working in Dublin you'll need both the car loan and the mortgage, what sort of house could you get in Dublin for €600 per month over 25 years!

seamus

Deleted User wrote: »

If you're buying in Mullingar and working in Dublin you'll need both the car loan and the mortgage, what sort of house could you get in Dublin for €600 per month over 25 years!

Let's not forget the 160km round trip, which at 15km per litre of petrol will cost around €280/month.

oceanclub

seamus wrote: »

Let's not forget the 160km round trip, which at 15km per litre of petrol will cost around €280/month.

Don't forget to throw in marriage counselling fees.

P.

tara73

just found and read this thread halfway through from the beginning and have to say I'm absolutely flabbergasted how exactly some people here predicted all what happened the last 3 years 3 years ago...maybe it wasn't too difficult to assume the bubble bursting / crash but what astonishes me is some of the detailed predictions...why you smart guys are not leading the country???????you should!!!!!:):):)

tara73

tara73 wrote: »

why you smart guys are not leading the country???????you should!!!!!:):):)

Quite simply because the sheep voters prefer to follow the same leaders as they always have done before, the status quo is preferred to radical change!

Agent J

tara73 wrote: »

just found and read this thread halfway through from the beginning and have to say I'm absolutely flabbergasted how exactly some people here predicted all what happened the last 3 years 3 years ago...maybe it wasn't too difficult to assume the bubble bursting / crash but what astonishes me is some of the detailed predictions...why you smart guys are not leading the country???????you should!!!!!:):):)

Some of this was evident back in 2002/3. The flag went up for me when we were building houses at a rate of 60k units a year. Germanys built at 120k a year and the UK 90k a year. Something was not right about those proportions.
Throw in the 1st 100% mortgages, equity release, 30,35,40 year mortgages and a gardai/nurse couple not being able to afford a modest 3-bed.


But Ireland is different ya know.