Housing Bubble Bursting

mark renton

20goto10 wrote: »

What wonderful magical powers you have there. You can say, without knowing any details, that the house was overpriced.

I'm not an economist but I'm pretty good at maths and I can tell you your maths is flawed. You cannot take an average price and apply it to the lower wage and say that ALL prices must drop to meet that. Not to mention nobody knows the average price because that data is not even recorded.

No, but you can calculate the depreciation over the last 2 years and apply it to this year if you dont feel market has yet hit bottom. I havent actually calculated this but I'm assuming it would work out less than advertised prices

all the predictions are that prices will continue to fall

http://www.independent.ie/lifestyle/property-plus/house-prices/national-average-house-prices-2010-2197182.html


The year-on-year decline in Dublin from the first quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of 2010 was 24.5pc.

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/average-house-prices-still-falling-across-country-2161024.html

even halving (which is extreme) the decline is 12% over the next year

House prices will always be at the maximum level the market will stand!
Those that are priced above that level simply won't sell and the market is flooded with them!



What determines that maximum level is the banks ability to lend, and the fact that most prospective buyers attempt to borrow the maxumum amount available.

The other factors, such as location, size, condition etc within a region* are of less importance.

*i.e. when comparing prices within but not between Dublin or darkest Longford.

The days when a "professional couple" would max themselves out for a bog-standard 3 bed semi in a non-descript part of town are long gone, they're renting and waiting for that decent suburban 4 bed detached to drop to their price range.

20goto10

john47832 wrote: »

No, but you can calculate the depreciation over the last 2 years and apply it to this year if you dont feel market has yet hit bottom. I havent actually calculated this but I'm assuming it would work out less than advertised prices

all the predictions are that prices will continue to fall

http://www.independent.ie/lifestyle/property-plus/house-prices/national-average-house-prices-2010-2197182.html


The year-on-year decline in Dublin from the first quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of 2010 was 24.5pc.

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/average-house-prices-still-falling-across-country-2161024.html

even halving (which is extreme) the decline is 12% over the next year

your statistics are based in data that doesn't exist. It's data pulled off the Internet and taken out of context. Is there no peer review in economics?

mark renton

20goto10 wrote: »

your statistics are based in data that doesn't exist. It's data pulled off the Internet and taken out of context. Is there no peer review in economics?

you will have to forgive my lack of expertise but sounds about right to me, 300k house this time last year currently on the market for 225k

20goto10

So the general concensus is anyone who buys in a falling market is an idiot and if you wait you can get the exact same house for cheaper 2 years down the line? Not only is your maths flawed but your logic is too. The reality is there are feck all houses out there to buy. People get to a point where they stop selling. If you want that house on the hill you need to buy it while you can.

Every asset I have ever bought has fallen in price, a house us no different. I buy a car because I want one. I don't even need it I could get the bus or taxi. I buy a house because I want one, I don't even need one when I could rent. In both cases I'll buy the best I can afford. U could wait and get it cheaper but I want it now.

I see no logic in the argument to hold off fir prices to start increaing again. And I see no reason to respect publications which are based in flawed data, flawed mathematics and are not open to scrutiny or peer review.

People will buy things because they want one. Get over it and stop moaning.

Also anyone who us still debating property for it's investment properties needs a splash of cold water. The games over dude, get a real job.

Blackjack

20goto10 wrote: »

So the general concensus is anyone who buys in a falling market is an idiot and if you wait you can get the exact same house for cheaper 2 years down the line?

Lets see how this works in 2 years then?

Blackjack

Blackjack wrote: »

Lets see how this works in 2 years then?

It certainly worked from 2008! Short of a miracle, it's highly likely to hold true for for the next two as well.

gomaith2010

Noone knows for sure, but the reality is that the only thing we should have learned from the last decade or so is that we have to make our own evaluations and not base them on politicians or banks.

Our experience is particularly extreme. Im my estimation, house prices will continue to fall, albeit not as sharply, and gradually bottom out. When they start to rise again, they will not shoot up in price like the last time so there will be no missing the boat this time. Rent for another 18 months would be my assessment.

norrie rugger

gomaith2010 wrote: »

Noone knows for sure, but the reality is that the only thing we should have learned from the last decade or so is that we have to make our own evaluations and not base them on politicians or banks.

Our experience is particularly extreme. Im my estimation, house prices will continue to fall, albeit not as sharply, and gradually bottom out. When they start to rise again, they will not shoot up in price like the last time so there will be no missing the boat this time. Rent for another 18 months would be my assessment.

After years of looking for somewhere that matches my requirements, I have found a property. I want it so I am offering for it but knocking at least a 1/4 from the asking. Would no go near it except that I finally found what I am looking for in a long term residence, I also am not going to play the agents games. My offer is my offer.

Saying that I don't that the Irish people have learned their lesson. All I hear from people is that they are holding on to their money to buy, once the crash stops.
There are thousands of people who will enter the market, the moment they see prices begin to rise.

The only thing that would make prices "rise" would be a dose of typerinflation!

norrie rugger

Deleted User wrote: »

The only thing that would make prices "rise" would be a dose of typerinflation!

I do not think that they will have to rise either, just a belief that they will not fall more.

People are still in the mind set that they can not "miss the boat"

AARRRGH

20goto10 wrote: »

The reality is there are feck all houses out there to buy. If you want that house on the hill you need to buy it while you can.

What unbelievable bull****.

I'll take both sentences seperately:

20goto10 wrote: »

The reality is there are feck all houses out there to buy.

There are over 90,000 houses for sale in Ireland on Daft alone.

20goto10 wrote: »

If you want that house on the hill you need to buy it while you can.

If anyone took that advice anytime over the past 7 years they would be in negative equity by now.

It is absolutely 100% retarded advice.

Caoimhín

20goto10 wrote: »

S The reality is there are feck all houses out there to buy..

"The figures come from the National Institute of Regional and Spatial Analysis, which says the scale of vacant property could keep house prices low for years to come."

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=29415&hilit=ghost+estates

"WE’VE ALL SEEN them as we walk or drive around: the empty or unfinished buildings that are a highly visible reminder of the overdevelopment of recent years. There are estimated to be about 250,000 empty buildings in the State"

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/wee ... 54042.html

http://www.thepropertypin.com/index.php

Just a great site, I believe RTE is state controlled, as are most of papers.

norrie rugger

Caoimhín wrote: »

Just a great site, I believe RTE is state controlled, as are most of papers.

I was only reading that site today, some good reading there

AARRRGH

norrie rugger wrote: »

I was only reading that site today, some good reading there

When I first started reading it maybe 5 years ago (?) I remember thinking quite a few of the posters were crazy as their predictions were so dire, but it turns out they were right.

oceanclub

AARRRGH wrote: »

When I first started reading it maybe 5 years ago (?) I remember thinking quite a few of the posters were crazy as their predictions were so dire, but it turns out they were right.

I reckon that site saved me at least a six figure sum.

It goes to show that noone from the site has been ever invited by the government to serve on any commitee, while Brendan Burgess who ran askaboutmoney.com, which banned discussion of house prices and who has disparaged the Pin at every opportunity, was invited onto the government's commitee for debt forgiveness.

P.

AARRRGH

oceanclub wrote: »

I reckon that site saved me at least a six figure sum.

It goes to show that noone from the site has been ever invited by the government to serve on any commitee, while Brendan Burgess who ran askaboutmoney.com, which banned discussion of house prices and who has disparaged the Pin at every opportunity, was invited onto the government's commitee for debt forgiveness.

P.

Burgess claims he couldn't see we were in a bubble. I don't believe him. Didn't a newspaper print he had 1+ million in bank shares during the peak of the bubble?

oceanclub

AARRRGH wrote: »

Burgess claims he couldn't see we were in a bubble. I don't believe him. Didn't a newspaper print he had 1+ million in bank shares during the peak of the bubble?

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/aib-slump-clips-wings-of-83641m-clubwealthy-shareholders-suffer-losses-1092462.html

THE number of "millionaire" Irish shareholders in AIB has nearly halved in less than three months, as the bank's share price tumbled.

[...]

Other well known big shareholders include Brendan Burgess, chairman of the Financial Services Consumer Panel and financial website, Askaboutmoney.com.

jimmycrackcorm

AARRRGH wrote: »

What unbelievable bull****.

I'll take both sentences seperately:
IU


There are over 90,000 houses for sale in Ireland on Daft alone.



If anyone took that advice anytime over the past 7 years they would be in negative equity by now.

It is absolutely 100% retarded advice.

There may be 90000 for sale, but if you wanted to buy in a particular area then the chances are that there are "feck all for sale" there. So many for sale where none want to live

oceanclub

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2q7bBVAo74

AARRRGH

oceanclub wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2q7bBVAo74

What a bastard. It says so much about this country that a man like him gets put onto government panels.

Truely shocking. It just goes to show, stick with the status quo and don't rock the boat and you'll be rewarded. Makes me sick.

gomaith2010

norrie rugger wrote: »

After years of looking for somewhere that matches my requirements, I have found a property. I want it so I am offering for it but knocking at least a 1/4 from the asking. Would no go near it except that I finally found what I am looking for in a long term residence, I also am not going to play the agents games. My offer is my offer.

Saying that I don't that the Irish people have learned their lesson. All I hear from people is that they are holding on to their money to buy, once the crash stops.
There are thousands of people who will enter the market, the moment they see prices begin to rise.

If you dont care about buying a house cheaper in a year or so, and you cant wait that length of time, well you must surely have the house of your dreams in your sight.

I have no backround in economics but I am very aware of spin and hype when it comes to banks and advertising campaigns pressurizing people into quick buys when there is absoultely nothing wrong with waiting a while..The property isnt going to run away. Keep your powder dry folks

Caoimhín

norrie rugger wrote: »

I was only reading that site today, some good reading there

While not trying to over dramatize, that site has probably saved hundreds of people from borrowing vast sums of money to buy poor standard, over prived houses.

norrie rugger

Caoimhín wrote: »

While not trying to over dramatist, that site has probably saved hundreds of people from borrowing vast sums of money to buy poor standard, over prived houses.

I can just imagine. Those were crazy days, with our "glorious leader" Bertie telling people to kill themselves, if they were talking down the economy

Calina

Caoimhín wrote: »

While not trying to over dramatize, that site has probably saved hundreds of people from borrowing vast sums of money to buy poor standard, over prived houses.

Unfortunately even when they are no longer overpriced, they will still be poor standard in many ways.

FAE 2008

Hi,

Does anyone know what Lisheen Fields in Ballincollig Cork is like?

At €365 they look like decent value.

Im interested in:

A - What these houses are selling for

B - What the area is like.

Any help would be much appreciated.

Thanks

Caoimhín

norrie rugger wrote: »

I can just imagine. Those were crazy days, with our "glorious leader" Bertie telling people to kill themselves, if they were talking down the economy

What i often wonder is did Finna Fail government know we were in a bubble or were they just happy to ride the wave, line their own pockets and spend like a feckless drunk.

Surely someone in the cabinet knew what was going on and knew the housing/credit bubble would with devastating consequences.

The people who run a country really should have the foresight to predict this depression. (Notice how RTE call it "the economic slow down") I am but a humble country forester and i spotted it as far back as 2001 (i was just back from uni in England).

Aaaah,

Enough, im going to bring the dog for a walk

AARRRGH

FAE 2008 wrote: »

Hi,

Does anyone know what Lisheen Fields in Ballincollig Cork is like?

At €365 they look like decent value.

Im interested in:

A - What these houses are selling for

B - What the area is like.

Any help would be much appreciated.

Thanks

You need to read www.thepropertypin.com

You have a lot to learn!

FAE 2008

aaargggh... I had a look at the website and the latest post relating to Lisheen Fields was March 2008. Im looking for some up to date information in relation to the houses there.

Again......

A What the houses are Selling for?

B What is the area like?

What houses are selling for is a closely guarded secret between the buyer, estate agent, seller and government. unlike elsewher sold prices are opaque.