Housing Bubble Bursting

Mrs Bambi

I missed the Sunday times on Sun anyone have a link to the price list?

Mrs Bambi

Mrs Bambi wrote: »

I missed the Sunday times on Sun anyone have a link to the price list? Just want to make sure we are on the right track re pricing our house ....have been hawk eyed on the market for the last 6 months and think we have priced it as well as I can (given all the uncertainties involved) but want to check it to this as no point having it up if we have priced it too high but don't want to give it away either. arggggg all we want to do is move house

If you just want to sell it, check similar houses in the neighbourhood and set your price 10% lower.

Mrs Bambi

Yeah I had thought of that

Spiritofthekop

Mrs Bambi wrote: »

Yeah I had thought of that and if we drop it another 10k we will prob be lower priced than alot of the other houses in the same bracket - our house is a good 300 sqft bigger than similar houses so we have priced it around the 375k mark, reduced it today,which considering its a 1650sq ft 4bed 4 bath is reasonable enough. We can prob only drop another 5 k as we know people aren't going to give us the asking price and we can't afford to go much below it TBH ....sorry am prob not making much sense

Just feel like I'm banging my head against a brick wall as we are most certainly not trying to overprice the house but don't want to lose our shirt completely on it either, its just so frustrating.

The problem is though that the price list for most/all houses in the Times are "considerably" lower than the asking prices on Daft or My Home.

Most if not all on daft/my home are overpriced by over €100,000 ++


Anyone who has read the pull out and has half a brain will NOT pay the prices quoted by sellers.

I know i wont, and i'll wait until the prices come down to what the price list says or even go lower.....cause we all know they will.

My family know someone in that area who has predicited the up and down of house prices for nearly 50 years and is ALWAYS spot on.

Her advice right now is that houses are going to continue to plummit for years to come, and to take my time as i will eventually get value for money.

Some sellers have spotted this and thats why they will sell now as its only going to get worse.

Prices will only stop falling when inflation eventually erodes the value of the € to the point where a house that was 10x your income becomes 3x your income, assuming you can get pay rises to keep up with the cost of living!

Mrs Bambi

So basically what you are saying is that I won't be able to sell my house?

subway

Mrs Bambi wrote: »

So basically what you are saying is that I won't be able to sell my house?

There is no way we could go to even 50k lower as we already owe more than 375K on the house, does this now mean that only first time buyers or people over 45 will be able to buy a house? We have already lost 150k on the price we paid in 06 and have accepted that but am I truely to believe that we should stay where we are because "we" have overpriced our house by 100k which somehow has fallen by 120k since december?

you bought at the peak
prices have dropped 38% since then according to the ESRI (which many will say is conservative due to low sample size)

525k * 62% = 325k

without transparency, who knows, but you might get offers of 290k or so on that if you are lucky.

you can sell it, but probably not quickly at a price you will accept.

I've been through this before. I bought a house in the UK in the late 1980s, Then the prices crashed, I was in negative equity for about six years before inflation eroded the value to about 60% it's original price. Then prices recovered, I sold it in 2005 for the same as I paid for it (inflation adjusted).

It was back on the market a few months ago for less than what I sold it for.

Mrs Bambi

Ok that makes sense

danbohan

Deleted User wrote: »

I've been through this before. I bought a house in the UK in the late 1980s, Then the prices crashed, I was in negative equity for about six years before inflation eroded the value to about 60% it's original price. Then prices recovered, I sold it in 2005 for the same as I paid for it (inflation adjusted).

It was back on the market a few months ago for less than what I sold it for.

that was uk housing crash , this is a depression with the imf /eu and a collapsed banking system , i cannot see any recovery in property in this country for 10-15 years and it still has a long way to fall no matter what daft or other vested interests might want us to believe

Caoimhín

Mrs Bambi wrote: »

Ok that makes sense however we didn't quite buy at the peak the house values increased to 600k which with adjustment by your calculation should be €372k which means I am not far off? Please feel free to correct me if wrong

Edited just to add we are expecting offers of around 360k which I didn't think was unreasonable?

The banks, if they lend to you at all, have gone back to the old X 3.5 times your annual income plus a 20% deposit.

By my (poor) math, that means a single person would need to earn just shy of €100k or a couple earning €140 + jointly to be able to buy your house.

While im sure there are many people out there with such money, they are becoming rarer by the day.

danbohan

danbohan wrote: »

that was uk housing crash , this is a depression with the imf /eu and a collapsed banking system , i cannot see any recovery in property in this country for 10-15 years and it still has a long way to fall no matter what daft or other vested interests might want us to believe

+1
Thats right, As I said further up, prices will only stop falling when inflation wipes out the value.

Prices will only stop falling when inflation eventually erodes the value of the € to the point where a house that was 10x your income becomes 3x your income, assuming you can get pay rises to keep up with the cost of living!

To add to that, it's location that determine whether prices then keep up with inflation or the house becomes effectivly worthless, like some remote rural oneoffs will become.

Mrs Bambi

Thank you for all of your comments and alerting me to the real story

Have a look at thepropertypin.com site, it was once referred to as a doomers site but so far their expectations have been proven correct (well more correct than estate agents etc). Look in the what's it worth sections Buy sell rent.

PS: have a stiff drink first!

Mrs Bambi

Deleted User wrote: »

Have a look at thepropertypin.com site, it was once referred to as a doomers site but so far their expectations have been proven correct (well more correct than estate agents etc). Look in the what's it worth sections Buy sell rent.

PS: have a stiff drink first!

Yep think I'll need one

DeepSleeper

Mayo seems to have avoided the worst of recession and house prices are holding up well...

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/63-mchale-road-castlebar-co-mayo/356356

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/1-woodville-newport-road-castlebar-co-mayo/334362

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/50-meadow-park-westport-road-castlebar-co-mayo/213198

:pac::pac::pac:

Somebody needs to re-take their typing lessons...

gbee

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/1-woodville-newport-road-castlebar-co-mayo/334362

But at 42 million Euro, this is a steal.

OR the expected price once the true cost of borrowing and resultant inflation is factored in, about mid next month I think ...

DeepSleeper

DeepSleeper wrote: »

Mayo seems to have avoided the worst of recession and house prices are holding up well...

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/63-mchale-road-castlebar-co-mayo/356356

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/1-woodville-newport-road-castlebar-co-mayo/334362

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/50-meadow-park-westport-road-castlebar-co-mayo/213198

:pac::pac::pac:

Somebody needs to re-take their typing lessons...

Me thinks that you've found the root cause of the banking crisis.

DeepSleeper

Deleted User wrote: »

Me thinks that you've found the root cause of the banking crisis.

Dear Ms Merkel,

Apologies, but twas all a mix up - just a typing error you see! Oh well, panic over.

Yours etc....
:rolleyes:

magneticimpulse

must be the 1st ever estate agents, who dont actually want to sell any property!! im sure there is a genius plan behind it...or else the staring at facebook all day got too much for them at work and they forgot how to value houses.

Merch

magneticimpulse wrote: »

must be the 1st ever estate agents, who dont actually want to sell any property!! im sure there is a genius plan behind it...or else the staring at facebook all day got too much for them at work and they forgot how to value houses.

That suggests they knew how to in the first place

robd

Merch wrote: »

That suggests they knew how to in the first place

Indeed, the valuation model (or lack there of) is completely broken.

Agents have traditionally used the most simple of valuation means. In fact it's the most common method of valuation across all industries/products. What a recent place, with the same number of beds, in the area sold for + X%. These days it's peak -X%. The fact that the peak price is rubbish data to start with seems to have alluded them. Garbage in, garbage out as the saying goes.

They/We need to move to a proper and transparent objective measure of value. This should look at building sqm, garden sqm, rental yield, building condition on a per area basis. From this we should be able to build up a reasonable model, even based on the low volume sales at the moment. It would be somewhat inaccurate at first but as time progresses and the number of sales (rather than house prices) recover it should come into it's own. We could even start with asking prices.

Merch

robd wrote: »

Indeed, the valuation model (or lack there of) is completely broken.

Agents have traditionally used the most simple of valuation means. In fact it's the most common method of valuation across all industries/products. What a recent place, with the same number of beds, in the area sold for + X%. These days it's peak -X%. The fact that the peak price is rubbish data to start with seems to have alluded them. Garbage in, garbage out as the saying goes.

They/We need to move to a proper and transparent objective measure of value. This should look at building sqm, garden sqm, rental yield, building condition on a per area basis. From this we should be able to build up a reasonable model, even based on the low volume sales at the moment. It would be somewhat inaccurate at first but as time progresses and the number of sales (rather than house prices) recover it should come into it's own. We could even start with asking prices.

Using that would mean a long drop, I remember when house were 50K (mid 90's) and I thought how on earth could I ever afford that

norrie rugger

Merch wrote: »

Using that would mean a long drop, I remember when house were 50K (mid 90's) and I thought how on earth could I ever afford that

Oh to pay that much. I would be buying for cash!!!!

goat2

looking for acommodation for one person in dublin, will it be easy, so far anything we have seen advertised on internet seems way out of her pocket, anyone know anywhere we can look for something decent at a decent price

Blackjack

goat2 wrote: »

looking for acommodation for one person in dublin, will it be easy, so far anything we have seen advertised on internet seems way out of her pocket, anyone know anywhere we can look for something decent at a decent price

where, how much, etc?

goat2

Blackjack wrote: »

where, how much, etc?

she thinks she will be able to get a place for four hundred euro per month, i just think she has not a hope if this is her price, as six hundred and up would be more realistic in prices for dublin, and when we are speaking of blackrock side of the city it goes up

Blackjack

goat2 wrote: »

she thinks she will be able to get a place for four hundred euro per month, i just think she has not a hope if this is her price, as six hundred and up would be more realistic in prices for dublin, and when we are speaking of blackrock side of the city it goes up

Might get a room in a houseshare for that.

goat2

Blackjack wrote: »

Might get a room in a houseshare for that.

i think that is going to be her only option, i would say if she got in a house with two other already there and if it were an ensuite room it would be fine, but she is of the opinion she will be able to get an apartment for the four hundred, any way she will soon learn, she has just gone for dublin and is bunking with a friend while finding her own bolthole, it will be her first staying and working away from home, she will learn the hard way, i do think it would be much safer if she just went for houseshare and the residents in the house and workmates would put her up to date with getting to know the city.
when my own daughter went away to work, i did insist at the time to just houseshare for the first six months until she got her feet and know about the place, as there are safe and not so safe places in every town and city in this country, and she did brilliantly, thanks to the housemates she had, in fact they are still good friends, even thouhg she spent six months with them.

cursai

Hey,
i pop into this thread every now and again over the last couple of years, trying to get some advice from it. FREE advice is always good advice as long as its free.
I hadn't bought a house in the boom but now at the moment when i am trying to settle and find a permanent roof im still confused namely on these issues:

Whats the issue with getting a clear up to date public system on house selling prices, are the government and other interested parties blocking this.

I reckon house prices are still overvalued, is this slowing down the property crash and creating a false value for houses nationwide.

I'm on a good wage with stable employment! e.g i only get quoted for a mortgage of 160000, my wage is €50000 annually. (looking at building a house for total cost of -+ 150000.) Does this make the market false?? if a person on a good wage can't afford!

Is the slowing down or creating a moratorium on house repossessions creating another temporary bubble? (Not being a vulture, just looking for facts)

Even with the drop on prices, with the increasing interest rates from banks on mortgages, will this slow down the market again, taking into consideration the above point!

Hope that all makes sense!
thanks.