Housing Bubble Bursting

freedom front

House prices set to tumble this year:

- House repossessions set to explode
- Jingle mail on the increase
- Interest rates going up
- Unemployment going up
- People have used all their savings
- Emigration to UK for Bankruptcy rising rapidly
- Banks are bankrupt
- Country is Bankrupt
- EU & IMF want banks to de leverage by 80 billion
- Domestic economy in Freefall
- New Taxes & Further Cuts in December Budget 4 - 5 Billion

Property prices are collapsing & Mortgage holders are Doomed to Poverty or Repossession

freedom front

freedom front wrote: »

House prices set to tumble this year:

- House repossessions set to explode
- Jingle mail on the increase
- Interest rates going up
- Unemployment going up
- People have used all their savings
- Emigration to UK for Bankruptcy rising rapidly
- Banks are bankrupt
- Country is Bankrupt
- EU & IMF want banks to de leverage by 80 billion
- Domestic economy in Freefall
- New Taxes & Further Cuts in December Budget 4 - 5 Billion

Property prices are collapsing & Mortgage holders are Doomed to Poverty or Repossession

You forgot to add;
- food and fuel prices are rising faster than wages.

lomb

Spiritofthekop wrote: »

http://www.auction.co.uk/irish/LotDetails.asp?A=738&MP=24&ID=738000010&S=L&O=A

Sold today for 280,000. This is only the start of it now. Good realistic price for 2011 imo.

Spend 80/100,000 on it and you have a lovely potential 5 bedroom house in a smashing location.

I had a look at it. Very big inside, Great location, beside Luas.

This house in good nick would of got 850,000/900,000 3/4 years ago no problem.

Might be worth 250 in a year? Prices are going to keep dropping. Reason is people today wont keep the heat off or not have a decent car/standard of living to live in a house. Basically wont put themselves out to own a house. Same as the USA, increasing living standard reduce net asset prices due to less money being available to support the 'goodwill' or even build cost element.

freedom front

lomb wrote: »

Might be worth 250 in a year? Prices are going to keep dropping. Reason is people today wont keep the heat off or not have a decent car/standard of living to live in a house. Basically wont put themselves out to own a house. Same as the USA, increasing living standard reduce net asset prices due to less money being available to support the 'goodwill' or even build cost element.

That house would have fetch over a million in 2007, Amazing prices set to keep on falling!

lomb

freedom front wrote: »

That house would have fetch over a million in 2007, Amazing prices set to keep on falling!

Probably more Id say. I looked at a place on I think it was Greenlea road Terenure( probably 80 year old 4 bed in ****e with a postage stamp front garden and more or less terraced) I think guiding 950 it went for 1.1 million and it didn't look as good a house as that one in Stillorgan.

Still wouldn't give more than 250 for it, I think 280 is hope value tbh. Like I said living standards have improved , no one is going to give up heat, good food, travel, data enabled phones, cars, education, cloathes etc to live in a house. Its going to be like the USA, brand new truck or car outside 60000 dollar house no doubt with everyone inside on 1200 dollar a year Iphone data contracts.

lomb

Spiritofthekop wrote: »

Spend 80/100,000 on it and you have a lovely potential 5 bedroom house in a smashing location.

No one is going to spend 80-100 on that tbh. Lucky to get a lick of paint and 10 grand spend on it from the likes of Ikea.

jmayo

Spiritofthekop wrote: »

http://www.auction.co.uk/irish/LotDetails.asp?A=738&MP=24&ID=738000010&S=L&O=A

Sold today for 280,000. This is only the start of it now. Good realistic price for 2011 imo.

Spend 80/100,000 on it and you have a lovely potential 5 bedroom house in a smashing location.

I had a look at it. Very big inside, Great location, beside Luas.

This house in good nick would of got 850,000/900,000 3/4 years ago no problem.

Nevermind telling me how much it was "worth" 3/4 years ago, tell me how much it was worth in 1997/1998.

jmayo

jmayo wrote: »

Nevermind telling me how much it was "worth" 3/4 years ago, tell me how much it was worth in 1997/1998.

At the end of the day, it's only worth what the banks are willing to lend to buy it! Cash buyers can almost name their price,but the banks set the floor price with a mortgage offer.

johnnyskeleton

lomb wrote: »

No one is going to spend 80-100 on that tbh. Lucky to get a lick of paint and 10 grand spend on it from the likes of Ikea.

Would I buy a 5 bed in Stillorgan for €280k and do it up for €100k? You know, if I wanted to live in Stillorgan I probably would.

mari2222

Is it true there are 46,000 empty homes in dublin (less a couple of dozen sold at Allsops)?

Monty Burnz

jmayo wrote: »

Nevermind telling me how much it was "worth" 3/4 years ago, tell me how much it was worth in 1997/1998.

Great point. The prices from the Bubble are totally meaningless, a fantasy.

If I offer you a pint of beer for a million, then slash the price 5 years later to 500k, it doesn't represent value for money. There seems to be some sort of idea in the minds of the public that prices will halve from fantasy prices and then magically stop falling. These are the same people who previously believed that prices would never fall, and then believed that maybe a 10% fall was possible, and then maybe 25%...

Spiritofthekop

Monty Burnz wrote: »

Great point. The prices from the Bubble are totally meaningless, a fantasy.

If I offer you a pint of beer for a million, then slash the price 5 years later to 500k, it doesn't represent value for money. There seems to be some sort of idea in the minds of the public that prices will halve from fantasy prices and then magically stop falling. These are the same people who previously believed that prices would never fall, and then believed that maybe a 10% fall was possible, and then maybe 25%...

So how much more do you think houses prices will drop in the next 5 - 10 years?

Spiritofthekop

mari2222 wrote: »

Is it true there are 46,000 empty homes in dublin (less a couple of dozen sold at Allsops)?

I would say apartments make up 80% of that.

Monty Burnz

Spiritofthekop wrote: »

So how much more do you think houses prices will drop in the next 5 - 10 years?

Hard to say. They could halve again to 25% of peak prices, and I'd be quite surprised if they stopped falling before we got to 40% of peak.

I can see them stabilising in a couple of years and then bumping along the bottom for a decade before the economy can support rising prices, at which point another long bull run could start and another generation fall into a bubble trap at the end.

Fr0g

Monty Burnz wrote: »

These are the same people who previously believed that prices would never fall, and then believed that maybe a 10% fall was possible, and then maybe 25%...

Sadly a lot of those people hold positions of influence.

Dades

Monty Burnz wrote: »

Hard to say. They could halve again to 25% of peak prices, and I'd be quite surprised if they stopped falling before we got to 40% of peak.

Is that a typo - aren't plenty of houses already 40% of peak?

The Scientician

So when's the best time to buy a home in the greater Dublin area my fortune telling friends?

Ste.phen

The Scientician wrote: »

So when's the best time to buy a home in the greater Dublin area my fortune telling friends?

Whenever you can easily afford the mortgage payments, have some reason to buy instead of rent, and can stomach the idea that you may end up paying more than you need to if the value of the house drops faster than the rate you're paying off the principal?

If you don't care that you might overpay, any time is the best time

lomb

Dades wrote: »

Is that a typo - aren't plenty of houses already 40% of peak?

The auction the other week showed prices were down to aBout 28% of peak. I reakon they will stabilise for 5 or 10 years at this level. However auction prices are lower than the private treaty advertised price by a long way. However no purchaser is going to offer asking now I think unless they have a screw loose.

Monty Burnz

Dades wrote: »

Is that a typo - aren't plenty of houses already 40% of peak?

Plenty are, and plenty are past it already (especially more expensive properties). I'm talking about the average.

Monty Burnz

The Scientician wrote: »

So when's the best time to buy a home in the greater Dublin area my fortune telling friends?

I'd hold off for a few years yet.

WalterMitty

lomb wrote: »

The auction the other week showed prices were down to aBout 28% of peak. I reakon they will stabilise for 5 or 10 years at this level. However auction prices are lower than the private treaty advertised price by a long way. However no purchaser is going to offer asking now I think unless they have a screw loose.

Well that assumes that all asking prices are equally inflated over real market clearing price. You can see on likes on daft/myhome big differences in asking prices for similar houses in same area. I always sort properties for sale on myhome/daft by lowest asking price which can throw up odd house that is much more reasonably priced .

Treehouse72

The Scientician wrote: »

So when's the best time to buy a home in the greater Dublin area my fortune telling friends?

There will be a few ways to spot it I think:

> When the distressed property auctions we're seeing more and more of no longer excite news headlines.

> The point at which all NAMA's stock is out on the market or has been cleared.

> When a 6% rental yield is the baseline norm in an area.

> There are currently c. 100,000 mortgages in trouble. We can't reach a bottom until there is some kind of resolution to this situation. New bankruptcy laws might be a leading indicator that this is being brought to a head

> When the new property price database - which should come in next year I think - is showing normal market activity. I don't know exactly what "normal" looks like, but presumably there are international norms for a normally churning property market. The database will also allow you to match up your income to house prices in an area and see if they are realistic.

antiskeptic

The Scientician wrote: »

So when's the best time to buy a home in the greater Dublin area my fortune telling friends?

When the slope of house price decline pulls out of it's current nose dive and takes up an angle more conducive to a soft landing.

Zipppy

The Scientician wrote: »

So when's the best time to buy a home in the greater Dublin area my fortune telling friends?

I'm back to all this again....

Houses I've been interested in I can now afford, and moderinise, with NO mortgage...it will leave me kinda skint and my salary is now muck..can just about live on it, although my partner has an excellent salary...

Have spotted a house that is well within budget (at last) and ticks most of the boxes...similar may not come up again....head says hold heart says buy....and I've pressure from OH ......

Monty Burnz

Zipppy wrote: »

I've pressure from OH ......

I hope I'm not getting the wrong end of the stick here (it's happened before) but it usually seems to be women letting the heart rule the head in Ireland wrt property. I don't know why that is.

Monty Burnz

Monty Burnz wrote: »

I hope I'm not getting the wrong end of the stick here (it's happened before) but it usually seems to be women letting the heart rule the head in Ireland wrt property. I don't know why that is.

Nesting!

Zynks

Deleted User wrote: »

Nesting!

Either that, or their friends have a nicer house.

<runs for cover>

Spiritofthekop

Zynks wrote: »

Either that, or their friends have a nicer house.

<runs for cover>

So true!!

Bobeagleburger

House prices dropped by the greatest amount for two years in June, according to new figures from the Central Statistics Office.

Prices fell nationally by 2.1% in June, compared to a drop of 1.2% in May and 1.2% in June of last year.

In the year to June prices fell nationally by 12.9%, compared to an annual drop of 12.2% in the year to May.

The greatest drop in the month was in Dublin, where prices fell by 2.4% in June, a 12.6% drop on a year ago.

This means house prices in Dublin are almost 47% lower than at the peak in 2007 while prices in the rest of the country have fallen by almost 39%.

Read more: http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/house-price-fall-accelerated-in-june-cso-514397.html#ixzz1TIsOaJct