Housing Bubble Bursting

intheknow

ok

mukki

intheknow wrote:

I am not too bothered if the value of my house drops, Its my home, not an investment. I was lucky to buy in an area thats nice, I was happy with repayments, I dont intend to move, I dont intend to lie awake at night worrying about something I can do nothing about. Chill out and enjoy your lovely home, it sure beats sharing or living with mammy

I say again, There is nothing you can do about house values. so forget it.

yeah, but what if ya get sacked tomorrow, you'll have to move back in with mammy, and still have some of your old mortgage to pay off

intheknow

mukki wrote:

yeah, but what if ya get sacked tomorrow, you'll have to move back in with mammy, and still have some of your old mortgage to pay off

Yes but why worry ?? I could die tomorrow too

iguana

intheknow you are obviously very silly and/or have failed to read yesterdays Sunday Independent.

Sindo wrote:

When most of the middle-class PAYE workers go to bed at night and dream a little of their good fortune, the only tangible thing of value they have is their house.

They may live in a modern liberal democracy, have a good standard of living and children who don't have to emigrate to find work, but that's not the same as knowing that their little plot has gone from being worth €90,000 to being worth €900,000 in the last 15 years.

I urge you to forget about your good standard of living and go to bed tonight thinking about the amazing value you have gained in your house. That's what's important.:p

(Soma's right, I have turned into a raging bear:o ).

nesf

mukki wrote:

yeah, but what if ya get sacked tomorrow, you'll have to move back in with mammy, and still have some of your old mortgage to pay off

Such is life tbh. I don't think that you can really criticise someone for being in a position of having the home they want, being able to pay off the mortgage without any trouble and feeling content with their lot. Not everyone is in this position though, I imagine.

miju

I wonder how long it will take before sentiment like this will become widespread?

nesf

miju wrote:

I wonder how long it will take before sentiment like this will become widespread?

Depending on what sector you work/worked in it's been here for a long time or will never happen.

miju

I've honestly never experienced opinions like that in all my 10 year working life but then again I am a Civil Servant

Victor

mountainyman wrote:

I think that's a bit harsh Seamus. Though it is a bit annoying to be told that rent is dead money by someone who lives in an apartment that is guaranteed to be in negative equity in a couple of years and which has 29 years of a thirty year mortgage left on it.

Realise that with a long term mortgage, that has been kept up to date with repayments, that modest negative property inflation is tolerable. The value of money is going down, you have tax relief and paying off the capital mitigates the amount of price reductions.

regi wrote:

I don't particularly blame the government for causing this. I do feel that they should have acted some time ago to cool the housing market down (maybe back in 2002/2003), but I feel that the cause of the bubble itself is firmly with the people.

Increasing tax reliefs when interest rates were at historicly low levels (they could only go up) certainly didn't help.

gurramok

Reading the UK press thi morning about tackling a 'mortgage crisis' over there.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/economics/story/0,,2122703,00.html?gusrc=rss&feed=networkfront

All of the below sounds familiar, and what has Bertie done?...Increase trs, abolish stamp duty for FTB...not much really

guardian wrote:

Ministers plan to shake-up Britain's mortgage market as part of a three-pronged approach to tackle the crisis in affordable housing that is posing a threat to the economy and triggering a political backlash, the chancellor, Alistair Darling, said last night.

Mr Darling said Labour would issue proposals shortly to boost the supply of long-term fixed-rate home loans for periods of up to 25 years, amid concern that lenders are only offering shorter-term mortgages so they can repeatedly charge high arrangement fees.

Property prices in Britain have more than trebled since 1997, despite Mr Brown's promise a decade ago to end the "boom-bust" cycle in house prices that has plagued the economy for decades. Interest rates have been raised five times in less than a year and are now at a six-year high, putting the average mortgage payment at a record level relative to incomes.

He said he was not just concerned about the individuals affected by the lack of affordable housing, but about the risk to economic stability. "It's been a problem for the south-east of England, but it is now a problem for the whole country," he said. Last year 160,000 houses were built in Britain, well short of the 223,000 the government estimates are needed each year.

Affordability is not a issue by the govt here!!

They are worried by economic stability that a housing bust entails and their construction GDP % is less than half at least of ours nevermind nearly the 300 odd thousand here employed in construction!

Of course, the govt says it won't happen here, we are different remember!

To compare, they control their own interest rates to try to put a lid on their bubble, we don't and haven't for at least 7 years!
They built 160,000 houses last year, we built 93,000....now who says we are not building enough when we have NO housing shortage and they do.

Why isn't the govt 'helping' the banks offer long term fixed rate mortgages to try to put some stability to the mortgage market, are they lazy or conniving here?

flangeman

From RTE - http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0709/housing.html

However, asked on RTÉ Radio's Morning Ireland, Mr O'Keeffe said that it was a buyers' market and agreed that he would advise a young person to buy now rather than in year's time.

A little later...

The main difficulty with 100% loans taken last year is that those borrowers could face the prospect of negative equity in a falling property market.

A little conflicting isn't it? We all know that in a market negative equity is always a consideration, but telling first time buyers to definitely 'buy now' (while pushing the auld fear of what will it be like in a years time), but in later breath saying that negative equity is a very real prospect.

D'Peoples Voice

gurramok wrote:

To compare, they control their own interest rates to try to put a lid on their bubble, we don't and haven't for at least 7 years!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aQ7TxavdxqU8&refer=europe

Rail Unions Win Biggest Pay Rise Since World War II (Update1)

By Chad Thomas and Brian Parkin

July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Bahn AG agreed with unions on the state-owned railway's biggest wage increase since World War II following a series of strikes that disrupted traffic on Europe's largest rail network last week.

The accord for workers at companies including ThyssenKrupp AG and DaimlerChrysler AG ``will set a benchmark,'' Michael Sommer, head of the DGB union federation said May 8. The European Central Bank, which has raised interest rates eight times in the past 1 1/2 years, has repeatedly expressed concern over rising wages.

The GDL union will vote to go on strike indefinitely in the event talks with Deutsche Bahn July 13 fail, today's edition of Berlin-based Tagesspiegel newspaper cited a union representative as saying. The union is seeking higher starting pay and raises based on experience, which Mehdorn has said would mean increases of as much as 31 percent.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601090&sid=aag2QY3YDP.o&refer=france

Sarkozy Persuades EU Ministers French Budget on Track (Update3)

July 10 (Bloomberg) -- French President Nicolas Sarkozy persuaded European finance ministers that his tax cuts may spur economic growth and keep France on track to meet a deadline to balance its budget by 2010.

The French president, briefing reporters in Brussels late yesterday, said his plans won't swell the deficit by as much as previously forecast and he pledged to reduce the shortfall this year and next. At the same time, Sarkozy offered no new deficit- cutting measures.

Sarkozy's failure to spell out concrete measures led European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet to call for ``explicit'' policy steps.

Concerns were sparked last week after a government official said plans to cut tax by more than 10 billion euros (USD 14 billion) would swell next year's deficit to 2.5 percent of gross domestic product from the 1.8 percent projected earlier.

It looks like inflation will TAKE OFF in Germany and France over the next year or so, but thankfully estate agents here are claiming that interest rates have peaked already so no need to worry:)

miju

phew thats ok then for a minute there i was worried

davej

The day after the warnings about taking out 100% mortgages and the risk of negative equity we get this from the independent:

How do I get my foot on the property ladder?
.......
You could get a 100pc mortgage.

On the basis that you might have some other loans you could use your savings to eliminate these loans and credit cards debts which will free up more of your net income to repay the mortgage and therefore increase the amount of a loan that you can repay.

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/questions-answers/how-do-i-get-my-foot-on-the-property-ladder-996227.html

davej

D'Peoples Voice

miju wrote:

phew thats ok then for a minute there i was worried

Yeah but the good news is that it won't be for another 5 years before oil prices soar from their current levels of EUR 76 a barrel - and that's even ignoring the possibility of a strengthening dollar against the euro!

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2d97d75a-2e0c-11dc-821c-0000779fd2ac,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F2d97d75a-2e0c-11dc-821c-0000779fd2ac.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fhome%2Feurope

World will face oil crunch ‘in five years’

By Javier Blas, Commodities Correspondent

Published: July 9 2007 13:25 | Last updated: July 9 2007 13:25

The world is facing an oil supply “crunch” within five years that will force up prices to record levels and increase the west’s dependence on oil cartel Opec, the industrialised countries’ energy watchdog has warned.

In its starkest warning yet on the world’s fuel outlook, the International Energy Agency said “oil looks extremely tight in five years time” and there are “prospects of even tighter natural gas markets at the turn of the decade”.

Imagine owning a house in the commuting counties where the cost of petrol in your car and oil/gas for your central heating (and electricity bills) make up a large part of your monthly outgoings!

miju

remeber seeing a rough calculation somehwere before that showed each €0.10 rise in fuel on the forecourt is worse than 0.25% base rate increase for people commutig to Dublin each day

Sarn

D'Peoples Voice wrote:

Imagine owning a house in the commuting counties where the cost of petrol in your car and oil/gas for your central heating (and electricity bills) make up a large part of your monthly outgoings!

Ah but you and the other half would be stuck in traffic for hours to and from work so you wouldn't have to worry about electricity or heating your home.

nesf

According to the Times, the number of 100% mortgages declined in the six months of this year for the first time since 2005.

http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/ireland/2007/0710/1183751754945.html (subscription only link)

Aishling

Miju
Could you tell us the topic in weddings online that you referenced. When I click the link it just asks me to log in, even though Im already logged in. Thanks.

miju

Aishling wrote:

Miju
Could you tell us the topic in weddings online that you referenced. When I click the link it just asks me to log in, even though Im already logged in. Thanks.

its been deleted from the site by the looks of it. its basically 14 pages of mainly people giving out about how foreigners are stealing Irish jobs . the OP titled the thread "dirty foreign bastards" because her husband cant find work in construction and they're struggling to pay mortgage etc.

she was basically pissed that some foreigners went up to a foreman and said they'd work for half the wages of an Irishman. if you ask me she should give her lazy assed husband a slap upside the head and get him to take any job construction or not.suppose it highlights the "proudness / arrogance" of the Irish of how certain jobs are beneath us :rolleyes:

can deleted threads like that be found using something like google cache or an internet archive like site?

miju

yes indeed blindjustice , in fact here is Googles cache of the thread. though it only shows 5 pages but you can easily get the jist of the rest from the first 5 pages

whizzbang

oops, deleted, miju got there before me.

miju

lol , today is one of the rare days ive actually been quick at doing everything , lollers

patrickolee

miju wrote:

remeber seeing a rough calculation somehwere before that showed each €0.10 rise in fuel on the forecourt is worse than 0.25% base rate increase for people commutig to Dublin each day

But on the plus side... if the petrol goes up, it will depress the european economies, which of course will mean.... interest rates fall :-) Every cloud and all that!

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Akrasia

miju wrote:

remeber seeing a rough calculation somehwere before that showed each €0.10 rise in fuel on the forecourt is worse than 0.25% base rate increase for people commutig to Dublin each day

How long will it be until the Government try and have petrol prices removed from the Basket of goods that make up the CPI?

'Petrol? sure that's just a luxury, like Cigarettes and a House to live in"

Probably the day we see you posting on politics in praise of capitalism akrasia ie it won't be any day soon I'd imagine.

I don't think you can group cigarettes in with housing and petrol as something equally as vital to the cost of living either.

davej

David McWilliams gives a pretty succinct analysis of the roles the government and the banking system have played in burdening young workers with massive debt.
As usual McWilliams comes at things from a unique angle with his creative attempts to synthesise the various strands of the Irish zeitgeist; describing credit as "the crack-cocaine of the financial industry".


http://www.independent.ie/national-news/hard-to-credit-we-should-be-grateful-to-banks-for-having-us-in-their-debt-996539.html

davej

bill_ashmount

davej wrote:

David McWilliams gives a pretty succinct analysis of the roles the government and the banking system have played in burdening young workers with massive debt.
As usual McWilliams comes at things from a unique angle with his creative attempts to synthesise the various strands of the Irish zeitgeist; describing credit as "the crack-cocaine of the financial industry".


http://www.independent.ie/national-news/hard-to-credit-we-should-be-grateful-to-banks-for-having-us-in-their-debt-996539.html

davej

lol, are you his agent?????