Housing Bubble Bursting

El Stuntman

miju wrote:

I see Dell are to let some 200 staff go. This I think will really hurt public confidence as Dell would be one of the "jewels" in the Celtic Tiger crown so to speak

ow, Bray or Limerick?

digitally-yours

Job vacancies declined in Irish market in June

I wonder how this is going to further impact the housing market.

Banks still in deniel over the "crash" and are predicting "soft landing"

* The most frequently reported difficult-to-fill vacancies in each sector were:

Construction: Drivers, quantity surveyors and managers
Industry: Engineers, managers and sales personnel
Retail: Managers and mechanics
Services: Managers and accountants and insurance staff

http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_1010579.shtml



I know as a first hand experience that the hosuing market is in complete dissaster.Place were I live close to they just finished building new houses there.

There are about 300 or 400 appartments there looking for owners.

Last year on the weekend people comming to visit the show houses were enormous.On weekends it was impossible to find parking there.

Now these days booking office is completely vacant and no cars seen parked over weekend no visitors. and these are the appartments being sold for over 300,000

refering to the following development
http://www.thecoast.ie/

Victor

This thread isn't about that wedding site or immigration (except insofar as it affects the Housing Bubble Bursting).

Please keep it on topic.

gurramok

digitally-yours wrote:

I know as a first hand experience that the hosuing market is in complete dissaster.Place were I live close to they just finished building new houses there.

There are about 300 or 400 appartments there looking for owners.

Last year on the weekend people comming to visit the show houses were enormous.On weekends it was impossible to find parking there.

Now these days booking office is completely vacant and no cars seen parked over weekend no visitors. and these are the appartments being sold for over 300,000

refering to the following development
http://www.thecoast.ie/

Hmm, yes...new phase launched alright.

That website is gas, each time you click somewhere, you can hear the waves from the sea!
Reminds you of Belmayne with seductive models, this time the sea is used for property porn
Funny how they don't list the prices(couldn't find them), maybe the houses are free

bugler

Out in Rathborne (Ashtown) there are a huge number of new apartments being built. All but one of the ground floor apartments in my building seem unoccupied since I moved in last October, and my building has been up a couple of years. So who is going to take these new ones in the current climate I don't know. Either no one at all or else people who might well be very reluctant but can't back out.

The area already has some issues regarding anti-social behaviour and big blocks of unoccupied apartments / empty car parks are probably the last thing needed.

ixoy

digitally-yours wrote:

Now these days booking office is completely vacant and no cars seen parked over weekend no visitors. and these are the appartments being sold for over 300,000

refering to the following development
http://www.thecoast.ie/

So 'The Coast' isn't selling? Not a real surprise. The apartments aren't all that attractive from the outside (when you pass them on the DART as I do in the morning), the location is merely OK (weak transport infrastructure until the new DART station, no good shops nearby), and the prices are too high (I seem to recall they start at 320k+ or so for a 1-bed).

digitally-yours

gurramok wrote:

Hmm, yes...new phase launched alright.

That website is gas, each time you click somewhere, you can hear the waves from the sea!
Reminds you of Belmayne with seductive models, this time the sea is used for property porn
Funny how they don't list the prices(couldn't find them), maybe the houses are free

If they mention the prices i dont think anyone will even consider visiting that place.Especially the appartments

Once the taxi driver refered to the place as cardboard boxes

With regards to the waves its i think refering to the fact that if you are sitting inside one appartment you can hear the waves from the beach and all the traffic noise which is miles away

Now this is my personal experience.

for the money they are asking is just unbelievable.

Also on your first visit it looks great but when you live there you know its not what u initially thought.

compared to the prices the build quality is rubbish in my opinion

davej

Interesting analysis straight from the horse's mouth (so to speak):

http://www.daft.ie/discussions.daft?dcn[discussion_id]=98594&dcn[forum_id]=4

davej

Colonel Sanders

whizzbang wrote:

I'm no economist but how can prices stay up if there is no money to pay for things? (Outside things like mortgages which people committed to when there was money around)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_curve

patrickolee

Colonel Sanders wrote:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_curve

Very interesting article, thanks for posting.

To support nesf's assertion, from the wikipedia article...

"Theories based on the Phillips curve suggested that this could not happen, and the curve came under concerted attack from a group of economists headed by Milton Friedman—arguing that the demonstrable failure of the relationship demanded a return to non-interventionist, free market policies. The idea that there was a simple, predictable, and persistent relationship between inflation and unemployment was abandoned by most if not all macroeconomists."

whizzbang

patrickolee wrote:

Very interesting article, thanks for posting.

To support nesf's assertion, from the wikipedia article...

"Theories based on the Phillips curve suggested that this could not happen, and the curve came under concerted attack from a group of economists headed by Milton Friedman—arguing that the demonstrable failure of the relationship demanded a return to non-interventionist, free market policies. The idea that there was a simple, predictable, and persistent relationship between inflation and unemployment was abandoned by most if not all macroeconomists."

Fair enough, so we will have less money to spend. I guess Lidl and Aldi will do well.

I just don't see how maintaining wages artificially high will be any better for us in the long run. At least if wages go down we will become competitive again as we will still have a lot of things going for us, English speaking, in the Euro, Shared times zones with Europe and the US etc.

If wages are maintained artificially high we will run out of money to pay them once the cheap credit we have been enjoying for the past 10 years dries up.

and now back to House prices....

miju

El Stuntman wrote:

ow, Bray or Limerick?

in Limerick. it actually turns out that only 80-100 voluntary reduncies to be sought by the end of the year are currently being sought. However, its fully expected that there will be up to another 100-150 more sought later in the year according to a good few over on Politics.ie

patrickolee

True, according to newstalk.

SimpleSam06

whizzbang wrote:

If wages are maintained artificially high we will run out of money to pay them once the cheap credit we have been enjoying for the past 10 years dries up.

The cheap credit hasn't been fuelling anyone's wages except the civil service, real estate agents, and builders. Where did you get the idea that wages were artificially high? They unlike house prices have been at or just behind inflation (or ahead if you happen to work for the government)...

nesf

whizzbang wrote:

I'm no economist but how can prices stay up if there is no money to pay for things? (Outside things like mortgages which people committed to when there was money around)

patrickolee touched on it already but the thing to bear in mind is that our economy is not completely closed. We have to import some things that we can never produce them ourselves and that we can't locally produce substitutes for, oil is the example from the 70s and 80s. Oil imports suddenly won't become cheaper for Ireland if there's a recession here, neither will a lot of things. Unemployment won't necessarily halt the rate of inflation if that inflation is driven by "external factors".


I also wasn't trying to say that we could be looking at stagflation at all, only that assuming that inflation will cool off when unemployment rises isn't a valid assumption to make.

whizzbang

SimpleSam06 wrote:

The cheap credit hasn't been fuelling anyone's wages except the civil service, real estate agents, and builders. Where did you get the idea that wages were artificially high? They unlike house prices have been at or just behind inflation (or ahead if you happen to work for the government)...

The "Artificial" element was in relation to people suggesting that foreigners shouldn't be allowed to come here and charge less than the Irish which is where this whole sub thread kicked off.

nesf

El Stuntman wrote:

I hope the Real Taoiseach puts his foot down on this one

Jack Lynch is among the shambling ranks of the undead now?

nesf

patrickolee wrote:

Very interesting article, thanks for posting.

To support nesf's assertion, from the wikipedia article...

"Theories based on the Phillips curve suggested that this could not happen, and the curve came under concerted attack from a group of economists headed by Milton Friedman—arguing that the demonstrable failure of the relationship demanded a return to non-interventionist, free market policies. The idea that there was a simple, predictable, and persistent relationship between inflation and unemployment was abandoned by most if not all macroeconomists."

As an aside, the phillips curve is still taught in macroeconomics classes at third level.

homah_7ft

I just heard good ol' Dan Mclaughlin on the radio saying that the period interest rate rises is going to be over soon. It was also mentioned how is has been right so often in the past.

SimpleSam06

whizzbang wrote:

The "Artificial" element was in relation to people suggesting that foreigners shouldn't be allowed to come here and charge less than the Irish which is where this whole sub thread kicked off.

Its the charging less that's the artificial element...

whizzbang

nesf wrote:

patrickolee touched on it already but the thing to bear in mind is that our economy is not completely closed. We have to import some things that we can never produce them ourselves and that we can't locally produce substitutes for, oil is the example from the 70s and 80s. Oil imports suddenly won't become cheaper for Ireland if there's a recession here, neither will a lot of things. Unemployment won't necessarily halt the rate of inflation if that inflation is driven by "external factors".


I also wasn't trying to say that we could be looking at stagflation at all, only that assuming that inflation will cool off when unemployment rises isn't a valid assumption to make.

This is all true, I guess I was inferring that there are high margins on a lot of imported things that could be reduced if there was not as much money around to keep them puffed up. There are always going to be things that don't come down in price as their margins are lower.

Also other countries survive on a tiny fraction of what we get paid and they also have to pay the global price for oil etc.

I'm just suspect of the notion that if we get paid a bit less we will all be back to "Angela's ashes" or something.

whizzbang

homah_7ft wrote:

I just heard good ol' Dan Mclaughlin on the radio saying that the period interest rate rises is going to be over soon. It was also mentioned how is has been right so often in the past.

Did he say they were "Done and dusted?"

homah_7ft

I think he said one more and then they would wait to see the effects of the rate rises.

whizzbang

SimpleSam06 wrote:

Its the charging less that's the artificial element...

Why is that artificial, if they can't get hired at the full paid price then it is totally normal to lower the price? They are not lowering the price just to feck others over, they are doing it to get themselves a job. Any other action would be the wage equivalent of price fixing which is totally artificial!

Colonel Sanders

nesf wrote:

As an aside, the phillips curve is still taught in macroeconomics classes at third level.

It was still part of the actuarial qualification exams when I sat exam 107 economics 3 yrs ago. As far as I know its still on the revamped CT7 course now.

miju

whizzbang wrote:

Did he say they were "Done and dusted?"

yes about 3 r 4 rate rises ago

nesf

Colonel Sanders wrote:

It was still part of the actuarial qualification exams when I sat exam 107 economics 3 yrs ago. As far as I know its still on the revamped CT7 course now.

"Men are born ignorant, not stupid; they are made stupid by education."

patrickolee

whizzbang wrote:

Did he say they were "Done and dusted?"

No, he said we would probably see one more in Sept ish and that then the bank would sit back and see the effect of it's increases. He also said that as the interest rate rises feed in to our inflation figures, that when the interest rates stopped increasing it would cause our inflation figures to fall to somewhere around 2% from the 4.8? currently.

miju

actually your right patrickolee I was thinking of Austin Hughes

jmayo

El Stuntman wrote:

ow, Bray or Limerick?

Dell have affectively gone form Bray. Their east coast operation is now in Cherrywood.
I wouldn't say Dell were one of the Celtic Tigers jewels, that would fall to Intel and Microsoft. They offer more status then a just knock it together shop.
Yes I know Dell employs more than the others.

BTW where will all this mortgage interest relief money come from, Berties suitcase maybe?
With less revenue coming from income tax and stamp duty, lower vat returns from construction and less VAT from retail spending where will the revenue come from?
Maybe with increased taxes on suvs to suit the GP?