Forecasts for Cold Snaps/Spells and Snowy Weather only.

darkman2

Hi, just a heads up.....


Snow showers are possible even to low levels later Monday and Monday night. High ground is certain to see snow at this stage. Whilst snow is marginal for sea level - in heavy prolonged showers it is a distinct possiblity. Top temperatures on Monday will range 3 - 5C (dropping sharply in showers). Hail/sleet seems likely for most.

Also we have to watch the development of a shortwave which could bring prolonged sleet or snow to Northern parts of the country early Tuesday morning. This is only a 48hr window. It will become milder again later Tuesday.

Just something to keep an eye on:)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn603.png

Takeshi_Kovacs

I'd say there could be a layer of snow on the mountains down here tomorrow as, it is hail stoning down there at the moment, although the ground and air is too warm for it too linger, it might stay on higher ground. Pressure stable at 1000 mb

Snowbie

Use this thread to post on forecasts from any Met Organisation on the possibility of snow from more than one day out and beyond.

Post on snow events that are presently happening or are certain to happen in this country within 24hr peroid [thread=2055023550]here[/thread]

This is to seperate a forecast for snow and an imminent type snow event.

Snowbie

Also the second week in January looks set to be cold.

Scubadevils

I am out of the country that week so the likelyhood is that there will be a full on snow storm :mad:

darkman2

Snowbie wrote:

Also the second week in January looks set to be cold.

Given the current setup I would not stick my neck out beyond a week Snowbie tbh. Northern Latitude blocking looks increasingly likely though I think it will be after mid - January. The stratosphere is warming but has not warmed enough yet to allow the PV shift from GL. Therefore its really only transitional Northerlies atm to look forward to. Beyond this I really dont have a clue.

Snowbie

Darkman2 wrote:

Given the current setup I would not stick my neck out beyond a week Snowbie tbh.

I dont usually.But i have a hunch that we will have our northern block maybe closer than mid month playin the part.Its a similar trend i have witnessed before.I will stick my neck out a little bit further than a week only this once.I have been saying this a number of times since early Dec.I go by trends and not FI and we are trending towards a chillier Jan for a good few years wheather we get snow or not but tis on course to be a lot colder 2nd week on.

darkman2

Snowbie wrote:

I dont usually.But i have a hunch that we will have our northern block maybe closer than mid month playin the part.Its a similar trend i have witnessed before.I will stick my neck out a little bit further than a week only this once.I have been saying this a number of times since early Dec.I go by trends and not FI and we are trending towards a chillier Jan for a good few years wheather we get snow or not but tis on course to be a lot colder 2nd week on.

We will see but tbh it does not look good at all at the moment. Zonal pattern to continue indefinatley for me.

Snowbie

Aye,if it doesnt come off,well there goes my trends and i definitely wont believe anything after 3 days.

Well most winters we have zonal paterns anyway,ok this one being very persistent but nonetheless the jet will give eventually and pressure will build.In two weeks we could be influencing a scandi high(no real cold air pooling over russia atm)but we need it to retro west and a Northerly to set in.Changes do take place over a short while,i wouldnt concentrate too much on FI to see an outcome,it makes for good reading but very inaccurate.

darkman2

Next weekend looks like it will be very cold indeed with temperatures struggling and the possibility of Wintry showers so not all bad news.

Trogdor

Great metcheck forecast for the 19th to the 23rd, blizzard conditions, if your reading this thought it;s probably changed already. It's sad but i've taken a screenshot and saved it as it's the best forecast for cold and snowy weather i've seen all winter
http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/14days.asp?zipcode=Dublin
Edit: here's the screenshot, sorry about the format i'm using a mac atm
http://www.brayweather.com/snow_forecast.pdf

Villain

Sweet Jesus trogdor thats some forecast, especially for the 21st with 17mm of Snow! Mind you its giving rain for Carlow!

Now we both now it will never happen but worth a look. It sure does look like it will get cold anyway.

Snowbie

For the last few days its has given snow to Dublin from 8 -14 days out.Its always nice to see and even better if it was pulled off.

Trogdor

Just had a closer look at it and it that colder zonality? because that's what it looks like with the wind directions

ninebeanrows

To be honest, any hope for snow for Ireland in the next 3 weeks is very small..

Were seeing Depression after Depression tracking from the Atlantic and the pattern is pretty much locked for the foreseable future.

Granted at times when the depressions push throw, colder air will be entrapped and pushed across Ireland.

So for short periods of time some wintry showers are possible in some areas.

Maybe a few sleety showers during Wednesday in the west and then perhaps some more widepread hail/sleety showers the following Sunday, but that's a long way off.

Gonzo

im with weathercheck on this one, but if that metcheck forecast comes off i'll eat me hat lol

SpitfireIV

Metcheck are sticking to there guns with this one, they are still showing 6 days of snow from Jan 19th for Dublin anyway, and have been showing that since Sunday, usually it'd be changed by now. I know its a long way off.....but still looks cool!

Isn't that met check forecast just derived from the fantasy island GFS-in otherwords its worthless...

Croppy_boy anything beyond 7 days is FI-fantasy island forecasting in our current mobile set up.

Also trogdor,theres no such thing as cold zonality-thats just an illusion or should I say a delusion dreamed up by some cold weather fans to delude themselves that the Atlantic can bring snow-it cant on its own.
It needs a northerly influence or to come up against a northerly or an Easterly from a suffeciently cold source.
The jet moving south on its own is not enough without the other influences,the Atlantic is just too warm.

Don't be taken in by the nonsensical "cold zonality" term.

Gonzo

metcheck starting to dumb down this snow forecast already for Dublin, they only have a bit of snow forecasted now. The cold spell if it happens will prolly amount to no more than one cold afternoon with a few wintry showers

Snowbie

Cold zonality is defo a new term out there.Who made it up?
What does it mean? Is it legal?
Does it refer to Rpm-Returning polar maritime air?
Does it refer to Pm-Polar maritime air?
Is it LPs on the northern side of the jet stream?

Is these terms gone and replaced by the new cold zonality if it is the same thing?

I have noticed this been used a lot on a few weather forums.

Anyone.

It's a made up term snowbie that has proliferated weather fora lately in a desperate search for snow.
It has to my eyes no basis in fact.

Meanwhile what do the GFS FI generated met check forecasts day for mid month Dublin now? Mild rain I'd say given this mornings GFS?

Don't tell me some on here have resorted to looking on them as a last resort now?

Snowbie

Metcheck are still goin for blizzards for next week Tristrame.:D
and have been doin so all this week.

Don't tell me some on here have resorted to looking on them as a last resort now

Straw clutching in hope i suppose,cant really blame them for this dyer winter in fairness.First bit of real cold comes along this forum will overload and Boards will crash.:p

darkman2

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png



VERY interesting ensembles at long last;)

Gonzo

and wot do those ensembles mean?

Snowbie

Gonzo there has been a hint in FI for the last week that a spell of cold weather will engulf this isle of ours.Now it has been persistent and only relented yesterday to back to mild wet and windy sort of stuff but changed again today. What those ensembles are telling us that for a 3 or 4 day peroid from the 19th Jan -5 850mb temps will be over the Dublin area=3c or 4c daytime air temps with the possibility of ahem!! if the conditions/ingredients are right that is.

Its a cold airmass tryin to work its way in but is still a week away and as always subject to change.

Supercell

-5°C ensembles and people are getting excited? , jaysus modern winter syndrom and lower expectations at work.

WC ain't posted anything, that should be enough of an indication as to how excited he is about it and he......

Maybe artictree,myself and a few others might see something out of that but for most it will be just rain showers if anything.

If the sneachta reaches here , I'll be snap happy and will post loads of pics

Snowbie

Whos gettin excited.Still out in FI but why not discuss it.

If its a Ntly event then its lucky any one in the east will see anything rain or the other stuff.If it just got cold it would do me fine and clear this mild muck away for awhile.

-5c ensembles are not the worst anyway.

darkman2

The average is -5. Most runs go below that to -6 or -7. Long way out but wintry weather looks a distinct possibility


http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_18_UTC/168_30.gif

darkman2

Increasing agreement for quite a potent cold snap with the risk of snow next weekend.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png


Several models are now better for this then the 12z GFS including the UKMO.

Snowbie

Very interesting DM,just hope that run is the same on wedensday before the ramp can start.

Edit:Just seen the rest of the models and there is a bit of agreement going on for a cold spell next weekend.This is a first for a long time and first this winter.

darkman2

LOL!!!!!!!!

Real height rises over GL in the reliable timeframe:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.png