Forecasts for Cold Snaps/Spells and Snowy Weather only.

Danno

http://en.allmetsat.com/images/afwa_msg_europe_ani.php
You can see the front building here...

Snowbie

LOL trogdor,ive maxed out here at 7.0C but the mostimportant thing is the Dewpoint has not climbed at all from 2c which is good news as the air is starting to chill a bit better now.No real cold as yet today but i have the wind still coming from the west here atm.Id say the evening is when we first taste the cold air.Snow is a bonus but as trogdor said.....

Edit:Just missed the rte weather anything of interest

lucernarian

@ irish1: Yeah, that's the vibe I got off them in the farming forecast aswell. The Eagle coughed on a couple of his words but he seemed confident enough anyway for some snow in the east:D The dark clouds with snow over the east coast was a sight for sore eyes. I think though that the "covering" he had in mind was of the thin variety.

Seeing as he is a resident of Drogheda, he may (hopefully) have been speaking from his own point of view:p

I'll be happy if the next 2 days beats Christmas Day 2004. Even a dusting would be above my expectations for the next 2 days.

Gonzo

hopefully they know what thre on about coz today is so far a U turn on yesterday (at least here) its about 7C and sunny which is alot milder than it was yesterday where we saw 3C/4C all day. The showers are fragmenting as they cross the midlands we only got a few spits of light rain/drizzle this morning.
I would be delighted if we even got 2 to 3 inchs of snow at some stage out of this 'event' (I dont think thats asking for alot). Even is the wind changes and it starts getting properly cold is there much preciptitation due?

Gonzo,your posts are boring me.
The same old stuff in them all the time.
Clearly you know nothing of weather which must mean you ignore anything posted by a lot of people here.
It must go in one eye and out the other.


6c here at the moment with a DP of 1.7c which is a recipe for rain.It's what you would expect from a westerly with only a tiny mid atlantic northerly component :rolleyes:

Yesterday you had heavy thundery showers that brought the temp down with their down drafts and in their heaviness brought some sleet with some wet snow on high ground.

Later today,the northerly element will increase and the Northeasterly will be added and thats when the DP's and temps will drop and the fun begins.

Thats what was programmed to happen in the short term.

For the record,though there will be some snowy periods in the next 48hrs and some will get a hit as opposed to a miss with the showers/lying snow-its not going to amount to much imho unless you live where longfield and artictree are located.
Their climate is much different to the rest of us for obvious reasons so I hope they have the camera bateries charged!

arctictree

Tristrame wrote:

Yesterday you had heavy thundery showers that brought the temp down with their down drafts and in their heaviness brought some sleet with some wet snow on high ground.

Later today,the northerly element will increase and the Northeasterly will be added and thats when the DP's and temps will drop and the fun begins.

Thats what was programmed to happen in the short term.

The data on my weather station seems to confirm this.

Even though we had some sudden mad drops in temp during the showers yesterday, we still reached a max of 6.4c here around 3pm.

Today, the max was 5.1 and it doesn't seem to be going any higher.

I would say the ambient temp today is then about 1 to 1.5 degrees colder than yesterday.

So all we need is some precip later and we're in business.

BTW - I fine tuned the webcam, so you should have a better view now:

http://www.arctictree.com/webcam-000000.jpg

Webcam isn't great but at least you'll see if there is any lying snow...

A

silverski

Greetings Artictree,

Sorry for this quick off topic question.

Is the webcam attached or wireless.

Sorry again for the off topic.

Regards
Silverski

Supercell

Tristrame wrote:

For the record,though there will be some snowy periods in the next 48hrs and some will get a hit as opposed to a miss with the showers/lying snow-its not going to amount to much imho unless you live where longfield and artictree are located.
Their climate is much different to the rest of us for obvious reasons so I hope they have the camera bateries charged!

Funny you should say that Tristrame, I actually did recharge my camera battery last night for just this reason.

I was chatting to my neighbours earlier and mentioned that it might snow here tonight, they seemed totally unimpressed, after all it snows every winter here!

Anyhow, if it does come they are going to see an over aged kid running around taking pictures and making a snowman tomorrow

arctictree

silverski wrote:

Greetings Artictree,

Sorry for this quick off topic question.

Is the webcam attached or wireless.

Sorry again for the off topic.

Regards
Silverski

Greetings - its a wireless webcam but its a bit crappy:

http://www.grandtec.com/webcam.htm

Its 3 years old now and there seems to be much better products now on the web with pan/tilt etc. And (for obvious reaons) the further I place it from my PC the worse the pic becomes.

A

lucernarian

The NRA temperatures show an unsuprising spread of temperatures, though Monaghan, and the met station in Clones in particular, are around the 2-3 celcius mark.

It looks like the sea is having a very significant effect on the temps with the westerly winds. The eastern stations in NI trend towards lower temps than in the west. It correlates with an area of dry weather from the north midlands to northeast NI on the 1400 radar.

Even though it's early days yet, the temperature at Malin Head is 6 degrees. The wind is blowing off the sea at that temperature and it will need a while before snow is viable further south. It will be a while after dusk before the cold air gets going.

The radar has not been kind to the Wicklow Mts. yet and I think a little luck in the timing of the wind direction and the ppn will be needed later on if there is to be a lot of precipitation over Wicklow instead of Wales. Let the northeasterly come swiftly.

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote:

Even though it's early days yet, the temperature at Malin Head is 6 degrees. The wind is blowing off the sea at that temperature and it will need a while before snow is viable further south. It will be a while after dusk before the cold air gets going.

Cork is in the same airmass as malin hd at the moment.
Theres no point looking at the Malin hd temp untill the weather front behind which the colder air is located passes through.

Supercell

I'm surprised at the amount of precipitation that's reached the east coast at all given the wind direction, wasn't expecting anything until Sunday night early Monday morning.
Last nights brief but heavy snow was a total bonus in my book.
Current taf's are indicating winds swing to the NE around 6am tomorrow morning with the front passing through - just hope it makes it this far south without dying out.
Any showers coming from the NE will hit artictree first, hope he doesn't steal all my snow before they make it here!, maybe orographic lifting by Scarr and friends might help beef them up a bit again before they get to me.

Interesting ...

Though I take those when they are more than 48hrs away with a pinch of salt.

Within 24hrs GFS precip predictions can be fairly spot on.

ninebeanrows

Greetings all.

Havent had too much time to poke through the models ut everything looks pretty much the same as early yesterday with Wednesdays precip still hanging in the balance.

Had a wee bit of sleet this morning up in the back of beyonds.... honestly i never knew how much of a Dublin jackine i was until yesterday:eek:

I'll post with some more info after i go digging

ninebeanrows

Well this evening the occlusion will push south with little if any precip.. just a scattering band of showers... from 2am winds will veer NE with showers beginning to form in the Irish sea - temperatures will now be much lower... and the showers will fall as snow... some eastern areas will wake tomorrow to a covering of snow;)

Trogdor

Weathercheck wrote:

Well this evening the occlusion will push south with little if any precip.. just a scattering band of showers... from 2am winds will veer NE with showers beginning to form in the Irish sea - temperatures will now be much lower... and the showers will fall as snow... some eastern areas will wake tomorrow to a covering of snow;)

Do you reckon all showers will be snow even on the sea at low level:) ?
I certainly hope so

Villain

Well I had a game this afternoon (bloody cold) so only saw the farming forecast now and my earlier post about Met's forecast looks to have described the forecast very well. So we might see some snow in the east tonight and tomorrow but after that its cold and dry. The models they showed for next weekend showed the high sitting over us so no ppn around although its better than lows blowing in from the west. Plus I take it this term of cold will help our chances of seeing snow in February which is normally when I see it in the last few years.

WC do you think is there any chance of thunder snow showers tonight or will the showers be light?

Also I take it roads will be tricky in the morning with ice in places?

lucernarian

Tristrame wrote:

Interesting ...

Though I take those when they are more than 48hrs away with a pinch of salt.

Within 24hrs GFS precip predictions can be fairly spot on.

The dewpoints are too high for most of Ireland. That Tuesday night feature has never drifted so far west so that the east coast in general will benefit. It's of great interest to artictree and Longfield though:p

Tistrame, my point was that Malin Head will be the most likely station to get a blast of the Artic air first yet the area with no substantial precipitation had the lowest temps. I was suprised to see a 4 degree difference between Clones and Malin Head, at the warmest time of the day. In your opinion, was the temperature difference caused by the warming of the sea or a boundary between airmasses, i.e. a weak warm fromt?

Snowbie

Although it feels cold out there it really is just the windchill factor.The really cold air has not hit this island yet.It wont be till later tonight and early tomorrow morning wee hours that we will see the first real sign.
By then the DPs will have fallen due to the cold airmass digging in.

Not too sure about the coastal fringes atm maybe at or just above freezing even before precip and rising as precip arrives only to fall in tandem as air temp falls again within a shower(hope you follow).All is up in the air and will reiterate again as wheather the sea will truly have an impact on not only air temps but the DPs too regarding the coastal margins here in the east.

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote:

In your opinion, was the temperature difference caused by the warming of the sea or a boundary between airmasses, i.e. a weak warm fromt?

For a start whilst the cold air had not arrived,MH was getting the full on effect of a sea breeze.
Inland areas are always colder due to that in winter with the opposite in summer.
Secondly a shower may have recently passed clones.

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

Well this evening the occlusion will push south with little if any precip.. just a scattering band of showers... from 2am winds will veer NE with showers beginning to form in the Irish sea - temperatures will now be much lower... and the showers will fall as snow... some eastern areas will wake tomorrow to a covering of snow;)

The latest UK fax has a northwesterly and not a northeasterly over Ireland for tuesday

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack1.gif

Basically every model we've seen bar the ECM's have been cack if thats actually what going to happen.

It would mean little or no snow for anyone as the hp is so close and it would mean none at all in the East.

ninebeanrows

WOuld not take the fax charts as gospel TBH.

GFS goes for NE and i believe it has been good

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

WOuld not take the fax charts as gospel TBH.

GFS goes for NE and i believe it has been good

It hasnt been that good though has it? beyond 3 days its changing its mind as often as the queen changes her knickers with the positioning of that high.

Villain

Six-one Weather giving little to no snow tonight, except maybe in the East and North East, I'm now of the opinion that whatever falls past midnight in the East will be snow but I don't think much will fall and only in spots, heavy frost coming watch those roads in the morning people.

Scubadevils

Tristrame wrote:

The latest UK fax has a northwesterly and not a northeasterly over Ireland for tuesday

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack1.gif

Basically every model we've seen bar the ECM's have been cack if thats actually what going to happen.

It would mean little or no snow for anyone as the hp is so close and it would mean none at all in the East.

Which would tie in with the latest weather from the met, the eagle seemed confident too as to the entire rest of the week...although maybe some interest tomorrow.

There wont be any snow here anyway tonight unless that DP falls and its currently almost 2c
It should be either side of near zero tomorrow though.
Below zero with a sub 4c air temp practically guarantee's any precip will be snow.
I'm expecting that but my confidence on precip quantity is low

Ryanoneill2006

Hey Guys,

Just caught the Weather on RTE 1 and John Eagleton seemed to dismiss talk of snow over the next few days. Sure he mentioned the chance of one or two Wintry showers along the East Coast tomorrow but that was it. He even mentioned temperatures rising on Tuesday?? I'm not an expert at all but I'm now getting the feeling that the closer we get, the more unlikely it is that we will see snow.. I'm confused!!!

Ryanoneill2006

Ryanoneill2006 wrote:

Hey Guys,

Just caught the Weather on RTE 1 and John Eagleton seemed to dismiss talk of snow over the next few days. Sure he mentioned the chance of one or two Wintry showers along the East Coast tomorrow but that was it. He even mentioned temperatures rising on Tuesday?? I'm not an expert at all but I'm now getting the feeling that the closer we get, the more unlikely it is that we will see snow.. I'm confused!!!

No need to be confused,the GFS model often linked to here and to a lesser extent the ECM is cack at the moment beyond 48hrs so forecasters are using their human input more in the forecasts.
They are using their experience as to what they think might happen based on their experience ,a mish mash of all the models we see publically and ensembles of models not seen by us.

Here on this discussion board and on others,people are often unrealistically looking for reasons that dont exist to back up what they think might happen.
ie they are saying,if this goes here or that goes there we will have our cold spell.

Weather doesnt work like that, it will do what it wants

In short,trust the Eagle he's never too far wrong.I'd also listen to REAL forecasters on the beeb especially the likes of Rob Mc.
They've seen it all before.

ninebeanrows

Well it's kind of ironic that the Met have been forecasting snow showers for both yesterday and today when it didnt! (away from high ground)! And now when there are real chances for snow to fall they arent!

Quick synoptic reference regards the next few days..
Tonight - snow showers beginning to affect the northeast and east from around 11/12...

Monday - snow showers in the east beginning to appreciate towards evening..

Tuesday - early showers petering out - precip from the west turning to rain in the west but with a 50:50 change of giving the east a period of heavy snow... at the moment models dont know where to place this little L, the further west the better for the east..

This is the same GFS has been forecasting for the last 4 days anyway

lucernarian

The GFS model has never displayed the polar low on Tuesday night anywhere else except in the Irish Sea. It's still a while out but it's been fairly consistent in this approach and this FAX chart from the Met Office even has it over the UK:

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack1a.gif