Forecasts for Cold Snaps/Spells and Snowy Weather only.

Snowbie

Finally a change from this zonal muck we have had for the last 2 months and a welcome change for some or all? to cold crisp clear weather with a hint of snow for some.

The North and East looks set to see the bulk of the showers many of them falling as snow even down to lower levels on monday.High pressure sitting not too far west will keep the western side of the country that bit drier and clearer.

With a low pressure system moving around the top of the high sometime tuesday the leading warm front will increase temperatures that little bit (in the wake of the front) regardless of the northerly wind direction, it also could be preceded by some falls of sleet and snow.

The trailing cold front will then move down with associated rain and will return conditions to a northerly flow with wintry showers to follow.
It then looks set the HP pressure will come much close to our shores and sink to our south with temps recovering by day and still some night time frosts.

NB:Early days of the week will be icy almost anywhere.

This thread is for Forecasts only,not current weather conditions.
Also please post if any weather pics in the Weather pics thread as some people are still on dial up and page will be slow to load.

Snowbie

Continue here

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055044136

Villain

Looks like a cold spell with some flurries in the East and North East until Tuesday and then dry cool weather until the weekend.

Better than high winds and rain, some areas have seen 200% of average rainfall so far this year so a dry spell has to be welcomed.

Oh and as Snowbie says it will be frosty everywhere so MIND THE ROADS people.

weathercheck

weathercheck wrote:

at the moment models dont know where to place this little L, the further west the better for the east..

This is the same GFS has been forecasting for the last 4 days anyway:)

But essentially you are saying the same as me...
GFS is picking out the features but it hasn't a fcekin clue where to place them outside of 48hrs.
Ergo it's cack as a few hundred miles this way or that way makes an awfull difference to the weather locally.

irish1

irish1 wrote:

Oh and as Snowbie says it will be frosty everywhere so MIND THE ROADS people.

Thats good advice but apart from yerself,meself,snowbie longfield and mothman,nobody here is old enough probably to have a car

Scubadevils

Tristrame wrote:

Thats good advice but apart from yerself,meself,snowbie longfield and mothman,nobody here is old enough probably to have a car

lol, wish I could say I'm not old enough for a car Oh and I have to take that advice re tomorrow morning, on the road at 6am or so

I'm sure this was discussed before but in 2001 when we had the decent one day snow event, had that been forecast to the degree of its outcome? (straw clutching here for unforseen snow overnight )

darkman2

The latest fax charts for Tuesday/night/Wednesday rule out snow across the entire country including the East. Temperatures will rise on Tuseday because the warm sector is over the country. The 528 DAM line is over Eastern Britian which means no sleet and no snow except for the hgihest ground. Tomorrow is as good as its going to get IMO.

Villain

Do the conditions tomorrow give us a chance of seeing some Lake effect snow or are the winds too northern??

Ryanoneill2006

Another depressing Weather report on RTE 1... Really starting to lose hope of some snow!!

darkman2

darkman2 wrote:

The latest fax charts for Tuesday/night/Wednesday rule out snow across the entire country including the East. Temperatures will rise on Tuseday because the warm sector is over the country. The 528 DAM line is over Eastern Britian which means no sleet and no snow except for the hgihest ground. Tomorrow is as good as its going to get IMO.

Indeed and agreed.
Most places in the East will see a few flurries but it's unlikely anywhere else will.
Go's to show again that those models are cack beyond 48hrs when dealing with a blocking atlantic high.

It may also mean anything could happen later next week though

Sierra Oscar

What are the chances for some snow in and around North Tipp this week??

I am guessing low.....:rolleyes:

darkman2

Tristrame wrote:

Indeed and agreed.
Most places in the East will see a few flurries but it's unlikely anywhere else will.
Go's to show again that those models are cack beyond 48hrs when dealing with a blocking atlantic high.

It may also mean anything could happen later next week though

Yes, thats very much up in the air atm. This cold snap for example was spotted at 120hrs so reasonably close. Anything could happen next weekend. Have to say I can see many in England and Wales also having a very disappointing period from this. Looks more and more marginal everywhere as the hours tick by. Not ruling out a flurry tonight and tomorrow though!:cool:

darkman2

Sierra Oscar wrote:

What are the chances for some snow in and around North Tipp this week??

I am guessing low.....:rolleyes:

About 0.000000001% chance tbh. Very doubtful away from windward coasts.

darkman2

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_18_UTC/18_30.gif

The East looks a decent enough bet tomorrow.

Scubadevils

Given that there has been so much uncertainty up to this cold snap even 48 hours away, could things change again in our favour? Or have the models got their act together now?

darkman2

darkman2 wrote:

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_18_UTC/18_30.gif

The East looks a decent enough bet tomorrow.

That has the high positioned differently and further away than where the Eagle had it...

Also on a plus note,those showers enhanced themselves off the coast of NI earlier once they got out over the Irish sea.

I'm not sure what they are doing now though.

The bad news (for my location anyway) is that the dewpoint is rising :rolleyes:

Snowbie

The showers will hit somewhere south of meath coast later depending on the wind direction.If it turns NE within a few hours Dublin looks likely but Tristrame looks like gettng it head on for now.

ninebeanrows

Hey Earthman - yea the 18z has slightly delayed the cold again due to the more precip.. expect ample dewpoints and ample temps from 4/5am

Winds are still NW in the Irish sea so that blob is headed for manchester unfortunately.

WC- dewpoint and air temp is rising here.
Air temp is up a degree in the last hour so thats a recipe for rain here anyway unfortunately

rc28

well at least some place in ireland is getting snow, knock at 22:00
http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

met eireann really played things down today:(
then again wc keeps saying things that get my hopes up:D

LookingFor

Tristrame wrote:

Winds are still NW in the Irish sea so that blob is headed for manchester unfortunately.

This link:

http://www.meteo24.com/uk/index.php?q=radar

Forecasts a back-end to that blob that feeds down into north leinster and dublin..but I guess it depends on the wind turning in time.

Scubadevils

Felixdhc wrote:

Given that there has been so much uncertainty up to this cold snap even 48 hours away, could things change again in our favour? Or have the models got their act together now?

Cheers for the answers on this one, I'll stick to lurking in future and not waste time asking questions (and BTW I'm not throwing my rattle out of the cot, I've asked a few now that have gone ignored )

Danno

That is a class radar!!! Much better than RTE and the BBC. You can zoom right in! (Handy to guess an inland location!)

According to it there is a v light shower due very soon!!!

Danno

Felixdhc wrote:

Given that there has been so much uncertainty up to this cold snap even 48 hours away, could things change again in our favour? Or have the models got their act together now?

I dunno Felix, the devil is in the detail as they say.
The pressure is rising, so more stability can be expected...

Villain

Felixdhc wrote:

Cheers for the answers on this one, I'll stick to lurking in future and not waste time asking questions (and BTW I'm not throwing my rattle out of the cot, I've asked a few now that have gone ignored )

I'll try and answer but my knowledge here is very limited.

The models are mostly in agreement that we will see cold weather from late tonight with NE winds, and then dry cold air for the next 48 hours with some showers blowing onto the east coast. Things could change slightly but charts tend to be pretty correct up to 48 hours. So in my limited experience things won't change much, as always where the showers will fall is a nowcast situation.

FI seems to give us a return to mild zonality but this spell wasn't in FI until +120 so anything is possible that far out.

Snowbie

Everbody has you on ignore coz you ask too many questions:p

Tbh a forecast for tomorrow is only 73% accurate(3 outa 4 times it comes off)decreasing by considerable amount each day.Models would be taken at a pinch sometimes too.I wouldnt bet on anything after 3 days.But depending on a HP it is difficult to forecast while out there,its in a blocking position but not blocking in the way we would like it to and as its intense it will wander where it wants to nearly.Unfortunately it approaches and dives by us to our south which aint where we want it to go again as the models suggest.It could still stall but as its a wobbler with a strong jet stream going up and around it eventually pushes it SE.

This is the basic i can get as it does get far more complicated.:)

irish1

irish1 wrote:

I'll try and answer but my knowledge here is very limited.

The models are mostly in agreement that we will see cold weather from late tonight with NE winds, and then dry cold air for the next 48 hours with some showers blowing onto the east coast.

Keep up,the models have chopped and changed.
Lately they have only one or two days this week with Northeasterlies and mainly northwesterlies
So nothing for the East.
They are cack at the moment anyway,I dunno whats wrong with them,I've never seen them so useless.

Villain

Tristrame wrote:

Keep up,the models have chopped and changed.
Lately they have only one or two days this week with Northeasterlies and mainly northwesterlies
So nothing for the East.
They are cack at the moment anyway,I dunno whats wrong with them,I've never seen them so useless.

I did say very limited

darkman2

Felixdhc wrote:

Cheers for the answers on this one, I'll stick to lurking in future and not waste time asking questions (and BTW I'm not throwing my rattle out of the cot, I've asked a few now that have gone ignored )

Hi Felix,

Sorry I honestly did not see your post.

There is pretty good agreement atm till Thursday but really you should ignore after this for the time being as there is not much confidence.

SpitfireIV

Whats the outlook for the rest of the day guys? Any chance of more precip forming in the Irish sea later tonight and moving inland? Or any weather fronts etc??