Forecasts for Cold Snaps/Spells and Snowy Weather only.

arctictree

darkman2 wrote:

About 0.000000001% chance tbh. Very doubtful away from windward coasts.

Now - we didn't expect that to move inland - did we!!

A

Indeed artic tree the precip from the Irish sea actually intensified as it moved inland and is now about to dump snow in Cork! yet Dublin had none except on high ground.

It just goes to show nature does what nature wants.

Meanwhile the DP is at it's lowest here now just nudging 0 but the air temp is too high at 6c
So anything that falls here will be rain today unless that temp drops which I doubt before dark.

arctictree

Tristrame wrote:

Meanwhile the DP is at it's lowest here now just nudging 0 but the air temp is too high at 6c
So anything that falls here will be rain today unless that temp drops which I doubt before dark.

My dewpoint is at -0.1

What exactly does that mean??

A

Snowbie

Ideally dewpoint needs to be close,at or below 0c for precip to be snow.Now if dp is 1c and air temp is 2c well you could get sleet while if temp is 3c and dp is 0c you could get snow.

Snowbie

Yeah Tristrame the lapse rates were indeed high over the sea and which caused the showers to intensify.I dont see anything on radar to suggest showers but we let maybe convection and instability over the sea to get to work first and we might see more showers later.

arctictree

Snowbie wrote:

Ideally dewpoint needs to be close,at or below 0c for precip to be snow.Now if dp is 1c and air temp is 2c well you could get sleet while if temp is 3c and dp is 0c you could get snow.

OK - so my air temp now is +3.3 and my dewpoint is -0.1

Hopefully it will stay that way!!

A

My dp is hovering above and below zero.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn3842.png

Theres a nice chart deep in FI

Totally unreliable but if we had it now we'd be in the snow

Wonder what the charts will unfold in the coming weeks... in the reliable time frame!

ninebeanrows

Few isolated flurries in the east tonight..

Some snow moving into Northwest and Northwest mids by AM

Moderate rain tomorrow becoming widespreas some snow on highground :rolleyes:

:rolleyes: :rolleyes:

nacho libre

Weathercheck wrote:

Few isolated flurries in the east tonight..

Some snow moving into Northwest and Northwest mids by AM

Moderate rain tomorrow becoming widespreas some snow on highground :rolleyes:

:rolleyes: :rolleyes:

I can't see snowing falling at low levels anywhere in the West and Northwest early tomorrow morning. I'll just have to climb a mountain in Sligo or North Mayo if i want to see any snow tomorrow:(

Supercell

The 12Z ensembles are interesting and pretty clustered which is nice



Temps go to -5°C with precip and hopefully no sea breezes this time, artictree and myself might do pretty well from this.

Any thoughts?

arctictree

Weathercheck wrote:

Few isolated flurries in the east tonight..

Some snow moving into Northwest and Northwest mids by AM

Moderate rain tomorrow becoming widespreas some snow on highground :rolleyes:

:rolleyes: :rolleyes:

Actually tomorrows forecast is a recipe for snow accumulation over high ground in the Wicklow area. Longfield, I've seen it many a time before, a rain/sleet front crosses the country and we get a serious dollop of snow here. I think it happened in March '04 - anyone remember that? We had about 6 inches here but it seems the lower areas just got rain.

A

Supercell

arctictree wrote:

Actually tomorrows forecast is a recipe for snow accumulation over high ground in the Wicklow area. Longfield, I've seen it many a time before, a rain/sleet front crosses the country and we get a serious dollop of snow here. I think it happened in March '04 - anyone remember that? We had about 6 inches here but it seems the lower areas just got rain.

A

I'm on a learning curve here tbh, if was back in Rathgar would forecast temps around 3-4°C (5-7°C near and in the city centre) and sleety rain there and mostly rain in the city centre.
Up here I dunno , temps 1-2°C should be the equivalent, however this mornings drive has thought me that standard lapse rates go out the window sometimes..was 0°C during the blizzard drive in the car and 5°C down in the green area at the N11 a few minutes later.

I lived about 7 years in the city centre in the late 90's- early 00's and did see snow lying there on several occasions. makes me wonder what it must have been like here. Different times.

Its all fascinating.

Touch and go for snow in Roundwood and annamoe tonight but it should happen.
Theres a lot of milder air toppling down.

Artic tree's dew point and temp are fine for it at the moment.
3c and a DP of -3c
But watch the dp,if that hits 0 and the air temp goes up any all you will get is sleet.

Rain here I'd say with maybe a bit of sleety ness in the mix.
Snow above 1000 ft probably.

arctictree

Tristrame wrote:

Touch and go for snow in Roundwood and annamoe tonight but it should happen.
Theres a lot of milder air toppling down.

Artic tree's dew point and temp are fine for it at the moment.
3c and a DP of -3c
But watch the dp,if that hits 0 and the air temp goes up any all you will get is sleet.

Rain here I'd say with maybe a bit of sleety ness in the mix.
Snow above 1000 ft probably.

Hmmm - dew point is rising, temp is falling...

This will be interesting - I can see precipitation over the North. Any reports on what it is?

A

If the DP goes above -1 or worse hits 0 where you are and with an air temp of 2c then at best you will have sleet.
It will still snow above 1000 ft.
This isnt heavy precip so there will be no down drafts.
It may help if you have ground to your north or north west that is above 1000ft.

Currently it's 4c here with a dp of -1c which is marginal for snow.
With a dp of -1c you'd want an air temp of 3c or below with a front imho.

Supercell

Tristrame wrote:

If the DP goes above -1 or worse hits 0 where you are and with an air temp of 2c then at best you will have sleet.
It will still snow above 1000 ft.
This isnt heavy precip so there will be no down drafts.
It may help if you have ground to your north or north west that is above 1000ft.

Currently it's 4c here with a dp of -1c which is marginal for snow.
With a dp of -1c you'd want an air temp of 3c or below with a front imho.

Currently 2.2°C, the ground is still frozen so possible if the precipitation of moderate intensity occurred, it might snow and even settle..
However the front looks like its dying a death moving south and light drizzle is all i'm going to see

Bah!

arctictree

Looks like no snow tonight!

Ah well, there's always tomorrow!

Looks like England are going to get some heavy snow tomorrow:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?2

We might just get some wintry showers.

A

ninebeanrows

Boards is not functional at the minute.. and the problems that have plaqued this site for over 1 year now. Not to be moany but the usage of this board just isn't tenable any more.. Honestly why does the one most used IRISH board have to be so extremely slow.. Surely we deserve better?

It is a great site and all but the server diifficulties are just terrible..

So i wont be posting until there sorted

Terrible cold spell and looks like ending tomorrow:rolleyes:

A typical typical cold spell..

When will our look change? In Feb maybe?

SpitfireIV

Weathercheck wrote:

Boards is not functional at the minute.. and the problems that have plaqued this site for over 1 year now. Not to be moany but the usage of this board just isn't tenable any more.. Honestly why does the one most used IRISH board have to be so extremely slow.. Surely we deserve better?

I thought it was just my slow computer, didnt want to say anything

Raining here, lightly. What are the models showing these days? Havent looked at them since our cold spell arrived (not that I'd understand them anyway ). Anything in the pipeline for the coming weeks?

arctictree

Weathercheck wrote:

Boards is not functional at the minute.. and the problems that have plaqued this site for over 1 year now. Not to be moany but the usage of this board just isn't tenable any more.. Honestly why does the one most used IRISH board have to be so extremely slow.. Surely we deserve better?

It is a great site and all but the server diifficulties are just terrible..

So i wont be posting until there sorted

Just started using boards a few months back. I've noticed that it can be incredibly slow to load a page - over a minute. Has it always been like this or just recently?

Doesn't really affect me that much as my BB is pretty good and I use Firefox and am normally browsing about 5 or 6 sites at a time, so I just let boards load up in the background.

A

Scubadevils

Danno wrote:

I dunno Felix, the devil is in the detail as they say.
The pressure is rising, so more stability can be expected...

Thanks for the replies all I had planned this year to learn more and hopefully be able to read the charts but work, family etc can get in the way!

Yeah Snowbie, was thinking that I was asking too many q's alright...just you wait till next month when we really do face a decent cold spell

Snowbie

Off topic but ive same problem and i have 8mb BB,try posting on Feedback,here is not really the place.The admins will have better answers for you there than on our corner of Boards,its nothing they havent heard anyhow.

OT-High temp today only 4.6c a few mins ago and fell to -0.1c last night.I saw more flakes in my bowl this morning than fell from the sky during our cold snap which unfortunately was a let down again for me where im living.Anyway still trending towards a colder Feb with increases in Cold weather,with snow..unknown but the cold is the first ingredient i suppose.

rc28

arctictree wrote:

Just started using boards a few months back. I've noticed that it can be incredibly slow to load a page - over a minute. Has it always been like this or just recently?

Doesn't really affect me that much as my BB is pretty good and I use Firefox and am normally browsing about 5 or 6 sites at a time, so I just let boards load up in the background.

A

Sorry mods for being off topic but i have also noticed that in recent times every single page of boards has become agonisingly slow to load even though i have good broadband. I do the same as you arctictree when using firefox i just let boards load in background and browse on other tabs. Its the same speed on ie7 and opera too so it is not a browser issue.

back onto weather and i noticed that meteireann have slightly lowered forcast temps for next few days as before today they said it would get a bit milder from tonight but now have same temps forecast as we had yesterday(3-7)

Snowbie

Felixdhc wrote:

Thanks for the replies all I had planned this year to learn more and hopefully be able to read the charts but work, family etc can get in the way!

Yeah Snowbie, was thinking that I was asking too many q's alright...just you wait till next month when we really do face a decent cold spell

Ah only joking me old mate,here is the place to ask them when its quiet enough though,when ramp mode is in full swing,well you can guess the rest.

Its quick to pick up on the charts as it is basically straightforward enough,the ensembles are a bit tricky at first glance with all the different colored lines but you can pick up on them quick and find what avg,850mb temps and control runs and differenciate yourself.
Regarding work family etc well ditto.:)

Gonzo

for me boards is usually very slow during the morning and afternoon altho right now its not bad. I just hope the speed issues eventually get sorted because theres times it gets so slow I just give up and wait untill later when its quicker.

This cold spell was also disspointing for me with most days not much colder than an average cold day, we saw better/colder/snowier conditions during cold snaps in February and March last year than this January cold spell so im hoping something similar happens this year.

jd

Lads, any views on how the high pressure area will behave over the weekend? Will it sink south introducing strong westerlies, or will it be just south of Ireland with a fairly slack airflow?
jd
(I'm interested because we are planning on going offshore wrecking off courtmacsherry!! )

Snowbie

jd wrote:

Lads, any views on how the high pressure area will behave over the weekend? Will it sink south introducing strong westerlies, or will it be just south of Ireland with a fairly slack airflow?
jd
(I'm interested because we are planning on going offshore wrecking off courtmacsherry!! )

Moderate WSW winds off shore a bit slacker over land.

Scubadevils

Snowbie wrote:

Ah only joking me old mate,here is the place to ask them when its quiet enough though,when ramp mode is in full swing,well you can guess the rest.

Its quick to pick up on the charts as it is basically straightforward enough,the ensembles are a bit tricky at first glance with all the different colored lines but you can pick up on them quick and find what avg,850mb temps and control runs and differenciate yourself.
Regarding work family etc well ditto.:)

Ah I know you were joking And I understand when full ramp mode is on that its difficult to stop and answer an amateur question

I should have learned more really in my 2 years now lurking on NW, TWO and here but I haven't really spent the time understanding the models. I have picked up some bits and bobs alright, must devote more time to actually learning. Trouble is I only really care about the winter months, the other seasons dont really interest me unless there is a thunder storm which seems to be almost as a rare as snow now. I remember as kid frequently been woken by the room lit up and the crash of thunder, dem wer de days