Forecasts for Cold Snaps/Spells and Snowy Weather only.

darkman2

Check out some of the ensemble runs on meteociel:D

Supercell

Tristrame wrote:

Good post WC.

Longfield is practically guaranteed snow in his location imho from the start.

Jaysus don't hex it now Tristrame

Agree with WC post, well thought out and pretty much sums it up exactly.
Its still a long way to Sunday onwards in meteorological terms, not going to get carried away till Friday

Snowbie

The best run of the winter without doubt the 12z.I would take it now:p.
The 18z has been decent the last few days with little variation.Lets see later on what we can expect as this will be a very good time frame were in.18z out about 9 pm.

Weathercheck wrote:

It is all about dewpoints for me... i have found there crucial in the last few years.. If the dewpoint is below freezing your half way there IMO and 850's of anything lower than -6c with a freezing or below dewpoint is good enough.
850hpa temps of -6c with a dewpoint of +1c / +2c is a different story however

Spot on WC.

Just to keep in mind that we on the coast or close to the coast will have to contend with an Irish sea SST being higher at this time of the year than normal for obvious reasons and which will effect the coastal DP and temperature.The longer the northerly persists the better but if we get a NE wind or east direction too early then forget about snow at low levels.A persistent northerly and gradual NE over a couple of days will be perfect and which seems to suggest so in the models now.:)

Im new to this: check this out: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/surface_pressure.html

skip the chart to T+84 (hours)
where do you all predict the high over the atlantic will move? (also where would you HOPE it to go to help our chances of snow?

here is a short range forecast site specifically for mountain regions
http://ukie.accuweather.com/ukie/mountain-forecast.asp?

Villain

12z looks good, still far off though and I'm sure it will change again tomorrow, although I was expecting a downgrade tbh.

Hmmm

Met Éireann are expecting the HP to the Northwest to move down over the country.
Goodbye snow and hello frost if thats the case-ie boring

Scubadevils

6.01 weather wouldn't inspire much hope for snow early next week - high pressure moving in from the west?

darkman2

Tristrame wrote:

Hmmm

Met Éireann are expecting the HP to the Northwest to move down over the country.
Goodbye snow and hello frost if thats the case-ie boring

Hardly supprising really since they use the ECM charts. Alot of varying outcomes as soon as Sunday. Its gonna be Friday I think before we can be sure of anything.

Snowbie

It can go either way imo.More than likely it was always going to move in from the west,it whenever it is going to move in from the west.I didnt see the rte weather at 7 but at the 1 o clock news they said it was going to settle down for next week.

darkman2

darkman2 wrote:

Hardly supprising really since they use the ECM charts. Alot of varying outcomes as soon as Sunday. Its gonna be Friday I think before we can be sure of anything.

Yes but the problem is as you know ,GFS is more accurate in dealing with mobile zonality.
It's usually kack when it comes to blocking scenario's.

You'd be raving at how good ECM was if it was predicting blizzards wouldnt you? and understandably so.

darkman2

Tristrame wrote:

Yes but the problem is as you know ,GFS is more accurate in dealing with mobile zonality.
It's usually kack when it comes to blocking scenario's.

You'd be raving at how good ECM was if it was predicting blizzards wouldnt you? and understandably so.

Not if it had no support whatsoever (which is rare). Tonights ECM charts though are good for Sunday and Monday with sub -6 air and wintry showers it has to be said. It is also not too far from the GFS at this time. You also have to take into account that every single model ive looked at today has a different outcome after 120hrs to varying degrees so I think it best to wait for this evenings 18z run (which we will have to take as likely given its the latest run) whether its good or bad.:)

Just to point out the uncertainty here is the control run from the GFS for next Tuesday:

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-144.png

What use is a few wintry showers followed by a high pressure?
Boring!

Though We can aspire to something better-such is the speculative nature of models beyond say 96 hours in a blocked scenario.
It's just such a pity that USUALLY the outcomes are disappointing.
Our Geography making suffeciently potent cold spells as rare as hens teeth.

nacho libre

yes, it was a disappointing forecast tonight allright. oh well at least there is the storm later tonight

SpitfireIV

nacho libre wrote:

yes, it was a disappointing forecast tonight allright. oh well at least there is the storm later tonight

Wait until tomorrow night, or Friday night and see what they say, dont kill it off before its even begun

arctictree

Hmm ... looking at the 18z charts, we are back to mild weather on Wednesday.

Still looking good for some snow though on Sun/Mon. It would be a pity if it didn't last - looked so promising earlier....

A

darkman2

arctictree wrote:

Hmm ... looking at the 18z charts, we are back to mild weather on Wednesday.

Still looking good for some snow though on Sun/Mon. It would be a pity if it didn't last - looked so promising earlier....

A

There is a decent risk of snow on this run on Tuesday for Northern and Eastern Counties. Tuesday looks exceptionally cold with maxes of 0 -1C generally. Anything that falls on Tuesday will be snow:)

Snowbie

Can turn around still.Its the positioning of the HP is starting to upset some of the models.Its an intense anticyclone and will wander where it wants to to put it in laymans terms.May still go North yet or position over us quicker than we would like too.Tough one to call now as we are in reliable timeframe but we have to wait now imo to at least Friday to get the picture.Unfortunately i would take the models with a pinch now untill early weekend even if its upgraded or downgraded.

Snowbie

darkman2 wrote:

There is a decent risk of snow on this run on Tuesday for Northern and Eastern Counties. Tuesday looks exceptionally cold with maxes of 0 -1C generally. Anything that falls on Tuesday will be snow:)

Thing about it DM is that this cold spell is starting to get delayed by a day each day.
Saturday was the original onslaught now looks like Sunday afternoon.
Sunday evening was the eagarly awaited.
Then it was monday before we got our snow
Now (not being directed entirely at you)your posting for next Tuesday,eh which is 6 days away.
So in my experience we are looking at a downgrade of snow but not cold.Its hit or miss:(
We shall probably have a beautiful landscape of hoar frost most of next week.

I think we need a break from the models,its unhealthy atm.

All of the above again is subject to change hopefully for the better.

Villain

TV3 forecasted snow snowers on low levels on Monday!

MetLuver

Apologies for earlier on!! Metcheck snow charts have little or no snow at all. Maybe well all be surprised monday morning. I know its too early to get exited or disapointed, but I really dont see that HP moving north! But we can live in hope. Donegal and Sligo didnt expect to wake up to a blanket of snow this morning, eventhough the pressure was low then, and next week its forcast over 1035hp

forkassed

New user here sorry if this is stupid or in the wrong thread.

Can anyone post a link that would let me go and check the latest models and the like, just rleying on whats posted above at the mo.

Any other sites that guarantee me some snow in the next few days would be much appreciated too.:)

Cheers.

arctictree

darkman2 wrote:

There is a decent risk of snow on this run on Tuesday for Northern and Eastern Counties. Tuesday looks exceptionally cold with maxes of 0 -1C generally. Anything that falls on Tuesday will be snow:)

Hmmm - HP is back over Ireland for the rest of the week. Yep - can go either
way after Tuesday. I'd Still say we will get snow Sunday evening/Monday.

A

Strasser

forkassed wrote:

New user here sorry if this is stupid or in the wrong thread.

Can anyone post a link that would let me go and check the latest models and the like, just rleying on whats posted above at the mo.

Any other sites that guarantee me some snow in the next few days would be much appreciated too.:)

Cheers.

Here's one

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

darkman2

darkman2 wrote:

There is a decent risk of snow on this run on Tuesday for Northern and Eastern Counties. Tuesday looks exceptionally cold with maxes of 0 -1C generally. Anything that falls on Tuesday will be snow:)

heh
No offence meant but thats getting carried away again.
That N-easterly and severe cold is gone this morning.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack3a.gif

Thats the latest UKMO fax chart for monday that I have to hand.
That would deliver wintry and probably snow showers to the east on monday,though with pressure being that high,they would be light and sporadic.

You shouldn't need shovels...

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack4a.gif

By the following day tuesday though, precipitation will be very weak if there at all as the hp closes in.
I have seen precipitation in 1030 mb pressure but again,its not going to be a whole lot and it will be confined to the East coast.

Clear blue skies I'd say and maybe no frost in Eastern coastal counties due to the onshore wind.

BORING!

darkman2

Tristrame wrote:

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack3a.gif

Thats the latest UKMO fax chart for monday that I have to hand.
That would deliver wintry and probably snow showers to the east on monday,though with pressure being that high,they would be light and sporadic.

You shouldn't need shovels...

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack4a.gif

By the following day tuesday though, precipitation will be very weak if there at all as the hp closes in.
I have seen precipitation in 1030 mb pressure but again,its not going to be a whole lot and it will be confined to the East coast.

Clear blue skies I'd say and maybe no frost in Eastern coastal counties due to the onshore wind.

BORING!

Yes I think it will be short lived at this stage. Though there still is a snow risk on Monday and Tuesday. Both days dew points are forecast below -1 on the East coast atm. Just enough that any precip should be of snow. The 850s should be around -7 so a colder spell undoubtedly which is a change with severe frosts. The best we can haope for after Tuesday is that the high does not sink too far.

arctictree

Looking at the UKMO charts for Sunday, I'd say a lot of those showers sweeping across the country will be wintry. Could have snow on high ground as early as Sunday I'd say. I'll get the webcam up and going again just in case!!

A

darkman2

Here is the beeb forcast for NI:

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:
Bright with wintry showers on Saturday, then snow showers on Sunday, these heavy and frequent at times. Lying snow expected. Becoming mainly dry with sunny spells on Monday.

Gonzo

from the sounds of things we barely have a 24 hour window of opportunity for snow and even if it does snow it will prolly be the odd shower with lengthy spells of sunshine melting any lying snow. This will certantly be no 80s style winter whiteout.

nacho libre

It would be good if the anticyclone intensified and positioned itself somewhere off the North Sea for a few weeks. This is the only way we will get a sustained period of cold weather with a decent amount of snow.