Forecasts for Cold Snaps/Spells and Snowy Weather only.

darkman2

The 12z GFS looks an upgrade to me for earll next week.

Snowbie

Something no one has mentioned yet is a high wind chill making it feel much colder than the temp actually is.Can catch people unaware and looks like if we get sandwich between the HP out west and LP to our east making it feel raw out,just a heads up for the auld.It could be significant.Atm looking likely for monday.

darkman2

Thats true about the windchill Snowbie.

Right, onlookers may be getting a little confused with this thread so here is basically where we are atm (my opinion of course):


It will be very cold from Sunday until Tuesday next week.

Sunday: Snow is likely in some places from Sunday Afternoon onward. On Sunday itself snow showers in the Evening in the Northern half of the Country. During Sunday night snow showers will continue over Ulster, Connaght and North Leinster with a covering in places by morning.

Max 4 - 7C


Monday: Winds will switch to the Northeast. Showers on East and Northwest coasts probrably getting to the East Midlands, that sort of area. Not particularly heavy but wintry with hail, sleet and snow. Showers continuing Monday night. A better risk of snow showers down to lower levels in the East. Though along the coast accumulations are unikely. Widespread frost inland.

Max 2 - 5C

Tuesday: A very cold day. Not much shower activity really though a few flurries around windward coasts. Frost and Ice slow to clear. Rain perhaps preceded by sleet or snow spreading from the North.

Max 1 - 3C


So thats how it stands atm. However this will change tomorrow again.

Takeshi_Kovacs

So it looks like it will be mostly confined to more northern, eastern parts of the country. How do ye think mountains like Brandon and Macgillycuddy reeks will do (i assume that they will see some bit of snow), cos i'll probaly head out for days hiking to get my much needed snow fix..

ninebeanrows

Very sketchy at the moment but a small feature may move in from the west during Wednesday as the cold kind of breaks down but it will fall as snow mostly and the breakdown will not be rapid so could be a good cover on the hills for awhile.

LookingFor

A bit of a ramp from Evelyn just now on the 9 o'clock. She talked about air from the arctic predominating for much of next week. Mentioned an intense anti-cyclone to the northwest that would feed in snow showers, particularly to the northern and eastern parts.

arctictree

LookingFor wrote:

A bit of a ramp from Evelyn just now on the 9 o'clock. She talked about air from the arctic predominating for much of next week. Mentioned an intense anti-cyclone to the northwest that would feed in snow showers, particularly to the northern and eastern parts.

Yes, much stronger terms from Evelyn. This one could go either way now. Its been see-sawing a lot over the last few days. I'm still predicting a white out in the Wicklow mountains on Sunday night/Monday morn from looking at the latest charts. Any agreement??

A

lucernarian

Sad as it sounds, Evelyn Cusack presents some great forecasts! Didn't see it this evening but I saw her sometime yesterday and she was ramping it a bit also. If you want it to snow, it's good to hear talk of "intense anticyclone" and "snow showers".

Anyway, I think the 18z was a slight upgrade on the 12z and I feel it's safe to say we are heading into a cold snap. Sadly it looks like just a 72 hour period is of real interest, but it will certainly feel "seasonal".

The anticyclone is indeed intense and it looks like it will give us a much needed rest from the storms. As far as looking for snow goes, the fantastical charts were too good to be true yet my fears of the high immediately drifting over the British Isles proved unfounded.

Most people in Ireland should see the odd wintry shower, but location will be key with showers forming the most likely chances of snow I think. Any feature on Wednesday looks to be very light even if it is persistent and if it's warm enough we could end up with cold drizzle.

All in all, it's a decent enough looking period of weather and I'm simply glad that there's a break in the wind and rain and that this latest chance is still a chance:p We will have to tighten our belts for a bit longer as far as a whiteout is concerned.

heh
18z GFS and the latest UKMO fax charts would mean a snowy time in the East with a beautifull North easterly component to the Northerly and some big showers blowing into the East coast from the Irish sea early next week.

Hope this is a trend finally firming...

Supercell

arctictree wrote:

I'm still predicting a white out in the Wicklow mountains on Sunday night/Monday morn from looking at the latest charts. Any agreement??

A

As a newbie to the mountains I'm hoping that's the voice of experience talking!

Am looking forward to some sneachta soon

Scubadevils

I do like the way the met are ramping a little...maybe it really is going to happen this time

Although with my approx 26' elevation, I suspect any sneachta will skip by my area...it did in 2004, 3-4 miles up the road had a bit of a covering and not a flake in sight here! Have to move house this year (again)

lucernarian

I don't like the 00z charts one bit. Snow is ruled out on Wednesday morning and the precipitation before that, looks weaker now. It's also goodbye to the -10 850 temperatures over any part of Ireland. It's much more of a downgrade than I expected, considering it begins in about 72 hours time.

The met have their forecast bang on the money, I suspect:

"Very cold for the rest of the weekend and throughout next week, with some wintry showers early on in the week, but becoming mainly dry and settled. Frosty nights. Sunday and Monday will be very cold, with sunny spells and showers. Some of the showers will be of sleet or snow, especially over high ground. There is also a risk of heavy, thundery downpours, mainly on Sunday. Frost will be widespread and severe overnight, with a risk of icy patches. Quite breezy, with fresh west to northwest winds on Sunday, veering northeast to north by Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday will be mainly dry, with sunny intervals by day, but it will be very cold, with frosty nights. Winds mostly moderate northerly."

arctictree

To_be_confirmed wrote:

... Some of the showers will be of sleet or snow, especially over high ground. There is also a risk of heavy, thundery downpours, mainly on Sunday....

"Heavy, thundery downpours" - Could be a whiteout - esp on high ground....

A

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote:

I don't like the 00z charts one bit.

You need a little more experience reading charts methinks...

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn15014.png

Theres only one source of air on that and with a slight NE element in off the Irish sea...with you being 450ft ASL in co louth you'd probably get plastered with snow.
Think about it... Very cold air going over a warm Irish sea with the HP staying way out west,the showers could be awesome.


Longfield based on that chart you will get snow,you'll probably get sick of it!

arctictree

The UKMO midnight chart for Sunday looks quite unstable:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/charts/FSXX00T_72.jpg

Could be a lot of precipitation around then.

This then leads to a brisk easterly on Monday 12 hrs later:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/charts/FSXX00T_84.jpg

I'd say we are getting close enough now to start seeing if we are going to get any frontal sleet/snow etc...

A

Snowbie

Use this thread to post on forecasts from any Met Organisation and models GFS ECM etc on the possibility of snow from more than one day out and beyond.

Post on snow events that are presently happening or are certain to happen in this country within 24hr peroid [thread=2055023550]here[/thread]

This is to seperate a forecast for snow and an imminent type snow event.

Snowbie

Follow this link to continue posting on the up and coming event.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=52656128#post52656128

Snowbie

Continue here for ease of reading.

Gonzo

it looks to be downgraded considerabley now, the proper cold weather will only really effect the eastern half of the uk. BBC are goin for mainly dry sunny weather here for Ireland, they previously had snow showers for us. RTE have stopped talking about covering of snow too.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack3.gif

Look at the tree like structures in the Irish sea,thats enhanced convective activity.
Not surprising and on Monday.

\o/ \o/\o/

Will it be cold enough by then?? thats the $64 K question-if it is it could mean thunder snow on the East coast.
I'm touch and go on this one for coastal areas-it could be very sleety there.
Artic tree and longfield and possibly "to be confirmed" might have to break out the shovels though !

Gonzo

Gonzo wrote:

it looks to be downgraded considerabley now, the proper cold weather will only really effect the eastern half of the uk. BBC are goin for mainly dry sunny weather here for Ireland, they previously had snow showers for us. RTE have stopped talking about covering of snow too.

You're not keeping up as usual Gonzo...

Snowbie

From looking at he fax chart there would be a high chance of PPN along the east.The HP is still a distance away from Ireland and the cold air is traveling over a warmer Irish sea.Thunder snow could be a posibility for higher ground.Remember October 2003 when a northerly travelled over a warm Irish sea and produced the 20hrs of storms in Dublin/Nth Wicklow area.

Imo there would be no chance of settling snow for the low levels on the east coast.Windward coasts and higher SSTs will mean higher dewpoints.
The positive we could take out of this is that the cold spell will reduce SSTs or sea surface temps for futher cold spells by maybe a degree or two into what is usually our coldest month of Febuary but also we have to contend with a stronger sun and bla blah blah,Christ we cant win.

But we can only wait to see what mother nature throws at us.

arctictree

Snowbie wrote:

Thunder snow could be a posibility for higher ground.Remember October 2003 when a northerly travelled over a warm Irish sea and produced the 20hrs of storms in Dublin/Nth Wicklow area.

I remember it well - there was blizzards where I live - v rare for October.
We would need just the right set of conditions for that to happen.

A

Danno

The UKMO midnight chart for Sunday looks quite unstable:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/charts/FSXX00T_72.jpg

Could be a lot of precipitation around then.

This then leads to a brisk easterly on Monday 12 hrs later:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/charts/FSXX00T_84.jpg

I'd say we are getting close enough now to start seeing if we are going to get any frontal sleet/snow etc...

That is some evolution, see the low pressures diving up the west of Greenland, this is exactly what we need to see developing so we can get a prolonged cold spell.

The faster those lows rattle on up there, the more westward that high will build. If we can see a sharper low pressure over scandi, then the conveyor belt is on!

ninebeanrows

Well unfortunately at the moment no model or charts can predict what is going to happen next week. The models are struggling poorly.. UKM and ECM are playing catch up while GFS is going off on a tangent..

It's a real tough one but i will certainly not be making my bite at the cherry until some agreement occurs..

What is certain at this stage is that it will turn much colder from late this Sunday...

nacho libre

I'll put my neck on the line and say the North West and West will have a light covering of snow on Monday morning.

Villain

From Met Office:

Severe Weather Warning



Issued at 13:00 Friday, 19-Jan-07 .



Warning of Severe Weather for Munster and Leinster


General :

Unsettled and changeable for the weekend. Often extremely windy, but some minor lulls too. Mild at first, but turning colder with wintry showers in places later in the weekend, mainly on high ground.

Friday night :

Extremely windy on Friday night, with strong and gusty southwest to westerly winds.

Mean winds 45 to 55 km/h will gust / 100 to 120 km/h over much of Munster and Leinster tonight.

Valid 19 /2100 to 20/ 0900.

Saturday afternoon/ Saturday night :

Very windy and blustery with showers. Strong and gusty southwest winds during the day, will veer west to northwesterly after dark and will gust to 90 to 110 km/h at times. Wind warning valid 20/1200 to 20/ 0300.

Some of the showers will be heavy and thundery, and these showers are likely to turn to hail and sleet in the evening and overnight, with possibly some snow showers on high ground.

Sunday:

Cold and windy with some wintry showers, with a few snow showers possible on high ground.

Irish1
Thats a severe weather warning for WIND and not snow,though it does mention the possibility of snow on high ground,its not indicating anything too severe mind.

As for next week,I'm with WC all the way on this one-it's highly likely that Eastern and Northern areas will see snow or lying snow but it's not a certainty.

The only thing that is a certainty is that the fetch line for any showers is as good as you can get if you live in Eastern Ireland.

If the air temps got below 4c with minus dewpoints then you are in business even on lower ground.
An artic source like this one certainly should deliver that even with the modification of higher sst'sin the Irish sea.

The only certainty that I can give is that precipitation in Roundwood and annamoe will be snow from monday onwards (and possibly earlier)-so artictree would want to have his weather station and his web cam live!

LookingFor

Warning from 2.05, an hour after that posted by irish - pegs the north and west for snow at lower levels, but doesn't mention the east..

Issued at 19 January 2007 - 14:05
Severe Weather Warning
Warning of Severe Weather this Weekend.
Extremely windy at times over the weekend with strong to gale force winds gusting 100 to 120 km/h. (Direction between southwest and northwest)
Showers also, sometimes heavy and thundery, and turn more wintry in nature later on Saturday, with hail, sleet and some snow in places. Further wintry showers will continue overnight and on Sunday. Some falls of snow are likely, especially over high ground, but some snow is likely at lower levels too, over parts of Connacht and Ulster, with moderate accumulations likely.

arctictree

Tristrame wrote:

The only certainty that I can give is that precipitation in Roundwood and annamoe will be snow from monday onwards (and possibly earlier)-so artictree would want to have his weather station and his web cam live!

Ha - Weather station is live. Trying to find some free webcam software that doesn't crash every hour or two!!

A