Forecasts for Cold Snaps/Spells and Snowy Weather only.

Supercell

Weathercheck wrote:

Want snow? Let the 18z lead you to snowland!!:D
Yehaaaaaaaaaaaaaa - Caution of course advised!!

Its looking good WC!, we might yet see some proper snow at last!!
Hope you have 50cm of the stuff piled outside your front door by Wednesday

Supercell

darkman2 wrote:

Is this post a joke?

Those charts are the most accurate we have access to and I can tell you from my experience they are supprisingly accurate and are part of the GFS model. Maybe you should give them a phone call and let them know your suggestions?

I don't know how many times I've seen eastern Ireland in the pink on these charts and it rained.
Precipitation charts are notoriously hard to get right, couple that with the usual Irish borderline snow events and they become pretty useless.
Tbh wouldn't be suprised if the moddlers agreed.

Why not mail them?, they will say this is the best forecast we can do given the info, but our confidance of is maybe in the 20% range (I suspect lower!!)

darkman2

Longfield wrote:

I don't know how many times I've seen eastern Ireland in the pink on these charts and it rained.
Precipitation charts are notoriously hard to get right, couple that with the usual Irish borderline snow events and they become pretty useless.
Tbh wouldn't be suprised if the moddlers agreed.

Why not mail them?, they will say this is the best forecast we can do given the info, but our confidance of is maybe in the 20% range (I suspect lower!!)

Like I say I think they are as accurate as they possibly could be. If you have a problem with them just ignore them. Every weather organisation uses precip type charts nowadays.

Supercell

Ignoring them T+>12 is the best option imho

Takeshi_Kovacs

It is looking good for ye lads on the east coast, but how do ye reckon it will turn out for us poor drenched sods on the west coast (specifically Kerry). If it turns to NE wind, then i assume what snow it carries will be dumped in the north / north east, and we will just see clear frosty days down here. (although surely the hills will get a dusting..)

ninebeanrows

We are really not going to know what will happen until the radars are showing big red echoes coming in from the Irish sea, the temperature at 0c and DP at -2c... then we can rest!:D

But things are looking good at the moment, i'll be up with updates tomorrow but unfortunately wont be able to access the models again until Sunday evening and by then hopefully things will look great:D

Supercell

Weathercheck wrote:

We are really not going to know what will happen until the radars are showing big red echoes coming in from the Irish sea, the temperature at 0c and DP at -2c... then we can rest!:D

Here's to the big red (and hopefully pink and white ) echos coming in off the Irish sea

Make it so mother nature!!

lucernarian

lol at the contagious optimism here but I will believe it when I see the thermostat and the radar screen showing it approaching, and of course the best judge of all, what I see falling.

Tbh I can't see how Ger Fleming could forecast "significant falls of snow" at any stage, except for the mountains. I didn't see the forecast though. Is there something in particular that I'm missing that would indicate heavy snow on Sunday/Monday? (besides any off-sea showers)

rc28

i watched the late evening forecast on telly about 20mins ago and he once again mentioned a risk of "signifigant snowfall" on sunday night across the north east and north leinster... i live in meath (near dunshaughlin) i suppose i qualify as being in north leinster:) but i'm not going to get my hopes up too much cause they have been dashed countless times before in other cold snaps:mad:

Guys you are forgetting Gerry mentioned significant snow in the south east on tuesday/wenesday

To be honest when the conditions are right a North East wind is perfect for bringing heavy snow showers anywhere from Louth to Wexford.

Historically the heaviest snow I've seen here in south wicklow has been driven in off the Irish sea in a North easterly-though the 1982 one was a direct Easterly.

It looks to me like I said earlier that shallow low pressures (like OCT 2003) are going to form based on the information we have to date (subject to change of course) and whilst short lived (ie milder by the end of the week) they will be cousins of what brought snow to the East regularally in the 80's in january to mid february.

Though their visit will be brief where the F have they and their cold NE flow been hiding so long at this time of the year ?

Snowbie

Longfield wrote:

Darkman those charts are a pile of shiite tbh for areas where snow is borderline.
If we were forecasting temps of -5°C and precip then they might have merit. Tbh any precip forecasts are almost worthless this far out as to be snow or otherwise, total and utter waste of time.

Those fecking pink charts are an utter waste of time to Irish users and I wish you didnt post them tbh.

Let it be noted that this thread is a discussion about forecasts,charts thats including models etc.
This cold spell was hinted at this time last week,and as far as im concerned it has come good for a change.If anyone wishes to upload a chart refering to a potential event well its then allowed be it precipitype or not within a reasonable timeframe.

Ignoring them T+>12 is the best option imho

and you might be right here but we can discuss it if T+<12.

Chances are you could be lucky to get a shower while couple of mile up the road its bone dry and thats the nature of showers.Not everywhere will received them.

rc28

i think i have found where the met are getting this "signifigant snowfall" thing from:
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack1.gif
is it that approaching front from the north east? i'm no expert at all, so if someone with more knowledge can clarify this it would be great as it would stop me getting too excited (in cold snaps i am always disappointed cause positive charts like that one usually never materialise)

Gonzo

rc28 wrote:

i watched the late evening forecast on telly about 20mins ago and he once again mentioned a risk of "signifigant snowfall" on sunday night across the north east and north leinster... i live in meath (near dunshaughlin) i suppose i qualify as being in north leinster:) but i'm not going to get my hopes up too much cause they have been dashed countless times before in other cold snaps:mad:

lol u must live within a few miles of me then... u will know that we havent seen proper snowfall in our area since 1991 (more than 2 inchs, the infamous Dublin/Wicklow fall in 2001 avoided us), so all we can do is wait and sit this one out and see what comes... it cud turn out to be wall to wall sunshine or sunshine with rain/sleet showers or sun with some snow showers or even a total whiteout (hopefuly) but all we can do is wait and see what nature serves us....

rc28

Gonzo wrote:

lol u must live within a few miles of me then... u will know that we havent seen proper snowfall in our area since 1991 (more than 2 inchs, the infamous Dublin/Wicklow fall in 2001 avoided us), so all we can do is wait and sit this one out and see what comes... it cud turn out to be wall to wall sunshine or sunshine with rain/sleet showers or sun with some snow showers or even a total whiteout (hopefuly) but all we can do is wait and see what nature serves us....

yup, good amounts of snow have really been a rarity in our area in recent times. i think i vaguely remember the 2001 event, was that the day when we got blizzards in morning (i got day off school) with even small drifts forming but through the day after it stopped snowing it all melted but for some reason dublin got plastered and it stayed on ground there for days afterwards?
tbh i would be happy with just seeing snow falling, its way better than the endless mild muck we've been having.
btw yes i live near you (near batterstown).

Snowbie

Six days on the ground in its thawing state iirc.One big snowfield my area was.

OT,i wouldnt rule out snow in inland Meath,chances are Leinster is at risk.

Snowbie

Snowbie wrote:

chances are Leinster is at risk.

Its a risk Im willing to take

lucernarian

There is a lot of promise with that feature on Tuesday/Wednesday for the Wicklow Mountains southwards. Hopefully we can see a snow event there, as they usually miss out on Notherly situations.

That Met Office chart was very interesting, but the temperatures will not be sufficiently low, or the dewpoints for that matter, to give me any cause for predicting snow on Sunday night. I expect the evolution to continue as planned, with rain/wintry showers being replaced with snowy showers come Monday morning.

I'll put down a claim that there will not be organised and sticking snow for anywhere below mountain height on Sunday night(500m).

Supercell

Some fantastic fax charts this morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1.html might bring snow along the east coastal counties by Monday morning, all looking excellant.

ninebeanrows

The 6z is rolling out and is bloody fantastic!

I still do not think it is going to be cold enough late Sunday under like 200meters.

But into Monday the snow showers begin to affect the east of Ireland with conditions just perfect - temps of 3/4 max - Dp's 0 - -1c 850'a -8c

Late Monday snow showers increase temperatures falls below freezing.

Into Tuesday a band of snow showers runs up the east coast once more temperatures now very very cold 850's touching -11c.

Towards Tuesday night showers peter out - cloud and heavy precip moves into the west, falling as heavy snow but turning to rain in the west.. Moderate falls of snow in eastern and northeastern areas continuing into Wednesday AM.

Snow pushes of south coast.. Easterly winds return for a time with a peppering of snow showers...

Supercell

Lol, WC are you excited yet ?

Agree with everything you say above, looks like we are in for a proper wintery treat at long last!!

Trogdor

Didn't realize just how much Met Eireann seem to be hyping this one up. Just watched a forecast around 10:55 and their charts showed snow showers all over the country tonight although mainly in the North and West and then more snow everywhere tomorrow with thundersnow further north. Do they something we don't?

Gonzo

I dont believe it, heavy rain/sleet falling outside with the odd snowflake throwin in:)

trogdor

trogdor wrote:

Didn't realize just how much Met Eireann seem to be hyping this one up. Just watched a forecast around 10:55 and their charts showed snow showers all over the country tonight although mainly in the North and West and then more snow everywhere tomorrow with thundersnow further north. Do they something we don't?

Troughs in the Irish sea in a northerly that turns into a northeasterly can mean only one thing Trogdor...

rc28

Gonzo wrote:

I dont believe it, heavy rain/sleet falling outside with the odd snowflake throwin in:)

yeah gonzo, i see some flakes mixed in too! (i'm just down the road from you) i wasn't expecting any wintry precip this early, my temp has dropped to 3c during the shower

Longfield

Longfield wrote:

Some fantastic fax charts this morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1.html might bring snow along the east coastal counties by Monday morning, all looking excellant.

I'm still unconvinced as to the cold-though temps today are struggling here.Dewpoints are the key.
That said, that trough is indicative and that wind flow in the Irish sea is actually a slack northeasterly-theres only one place it can drift.

Now the slackness of the isobars in the Irish sea on that chart means only one thing - slack low pressure ie a localised low (1010-1018) and that means periods of precipitation.
Negative dewpoints and temps ony 3c colder than today will mean snow.

Gonzo

yeah I thought todays temps were meant to be around 8C but its only 3C/4C so surprised to see the wintry showers already

arctictree

Just had a shower were temp went down to 3.3.

I'd say we will definitely have wintry type showers here later or tomorrow.

Have stocked up on all essentials - Food, Fuel, shovels etc etc!!

A

It's a cert for you artictree-a cert

If you get any decent stream of showers at all you could have at least 5 or 6 inches up there! (or more)

Snowbie

According to the 06z the HP stalls out in the Atlantic before sinking SE later on into next week.Very good run especially here in the east as it will allow for precip to continue well into next week if also that disturbance comes off too.

ninebeanrows

RTE forecast very optimistic for snow tonight.. she mentioned accumlations possibly anywhere!!

Well i'll be in the west of Meath so hopefully i'll will arise to a white ground although it'll probably be all melted if it fell by the time i awake:o