English League - Played 20 - Review

redspider

English league: Played 20 - Review

The 1-10 games played and 11-20 games played tables compare as follows:

Games 1-10        Games 11-20
Chelsea     25    Man U       25	
Man U       25    Chelsea     21	
Bolton      20    Liverpool   20	
Portsmouth  19    Tottenham   19	
Arsenal     18    Arsenal     18	
Everton     17    Newcastle   17	
Aston Villa 15    Bolton      16	
Liverpool   14    Portsmouth  16	
Wigan       14    Reading     14	
Fulham      13    Sheff Utd   14	
Reading     13    Blackburn   13	
Blackburn   12    Fulham      12	
Man C       12    Everton     11	
Tottenham   12    Man C       11	
Middlesboro 11    Aston Villa 10	
Newcastle    8    Middlesboro 10	
West Ham     8    West Ham    10	
Sheff Utd    6    Charlton     8	
Watford      6    Wigan        8	
Charlton     5    Watford      6	

The league standings at the 20-games played point, in comparison to the last few seasons, are:

2004/2005       2005/2006       2006/2007
Chelsea    49   Chelsea    55	  Man U      50
Arsenal    44   Man U      44	  Chelsea    46
Everton    40   Liverpool  44	  Arsenal    36
Man U      40   Tottenham  37	  Bolton     36
Middlesb   35   Arsenal    34	  Portsmouth 35
Liverpool  34   Wigan      34	  Liverpool  34
Charlton   31   Bolton     33	  Tottenham  31
Tottenham  29   Blackburn  30	  Everton    28
Birmingham 26   Man C      28	  Reading    27
Portsmouth 26   Charlton   28	  A.Villa    25
A.Villa    25   West Ham   26	  Blackburn  25
Man C      24   Newcastle  26	  Fulham     25
Bolton     23   Middlesb   22	  Newcastle  25	
Newcastle  22   A.Villa    22	  Man C      23
Blackburn  19   Fulham     20	  Wigan      22
Fulham     18   Everton    20	  Middlesb   21
C Palace   15   West Brom  19	  Sheff Utd  20
Norwich    15   Portsmouth 17	  West Ham   18
Southamp   14   Birmingham 16	  Charlton   13
West Brom  11   Sunderland  6     Watford    12

The points difference table with the same stage last season reveals the changes in performance:

Portsmouth +18	
Everton     +8	
Man U       +6	
Fulham      +5	
Aston Villa +3	
Bolton      +3	
Arsenal     +2	
Middlesboro -1	
Newcastle   -1	
Blackburn   -5	
Man C       -5	
Tottenham   -6	
West Ham    -8	
Chelsea     -9	
Liverpool  -10	
Wigan      -12	
Charlton   -15	

The combination of Chelsea performing worse by -9 pts (this is before their recent draws!) and Man Utd's improvement by +6 changes the top. Liverpool though are having the worst change in comparison to the others in the big 4, and are a massive -10 pts off.

Wigan's honeymoon is over and Charlton are in the relegation fight. The surprise package is Portsmouth with a whopping +18 pts change. Could Uefa qualification be just around the corner for them?


The ladder below reveals the two-horse race. Last season at this stage it was a one-horse race as Chelsea had an 11 pt lead. The year before that they had a 5 pt lead so this is new territory for Chelski.

50	Man U				
49					
48					
47					
46	Chelsea				
45					
44					
43					
42					
41					
40					
39					
38					
37					
36	Arsenal, Bolton			
35	Portsmouth				
34	Liverpool				
33					
32					
31	Tottenham				
30					
29					
28	Everton				
27	Reading				
26					
25	A Villa, Blackburn, Fulham, Newcastle	
24					
23	Man C				
22	Wigan				
21	Middlesboro				
20	Sheff Utd				
19					
18	West Ham				
17					
16					
15					
14					
13	Charlton				
12	Watford				

Thoughts?

Redspider

mike65

Reds not dead!

Well Liverpool really must get this early season torpor dealt with, while 3rd is good in the circumstances Chelseas stumble can't be taken advantage of so large is the gap. Wigan need to watch the gap they should be too good to go down but thats what they said about West Ham of course.

Mike.

redspider

mike65 wrote:

Reds not dead!

Well Liverpool really must get this early season torpor dealt with, while 3rd is good in the circumstances Chelseas stumble can't be taken advantage of so large is the gap. Wigan need to watch the gap they should be too good to go down but thats what they said about West Ham of course.

I'm certainly not dead .....

I agree. Liverpool started the season poorly and you cant afford to do that (usually) if you have title ambitions. If Liverpool would have been on 44 pts this season (ie: the same as last) they would now be challenging. Last year no-one could live with Chelsea's pace who just churned out result after result, although narrow victories at times. This season some of those close matches are ending up as draws and the points tally is affected.

3rd at the moment is fine-ish, but its relative with Bolton, Pompey and the Arse in the mix.

Wigan could go down and are in the dog-fight now given that recent results have been poor. They are missing the likes of Chimbonda and Bullock and their senior players are a year older now and that much slower.

Redspider

PHB

It's easy to talk about how Liverpool are preforming, and how they preformed last year, and mis-interpret it.

This year, I expect Liverpool (and Arsenal) to close the game on United and Chelsea by the end of the season. (And if they don't, they are really doing something wrong) The pressure the United and Chelsea players are under is immense, and you can see it is effecting their results already. I expect another 'If the league had started at Christmas, Liverpool would have won it'

The point is that Liverpool can't seem to keep up with either of the two top teams. Last year they closed the gap on United to almost get second place, but the difference between say United and Liverpool is that Liverpool's squad see 2nd place as an achievement, while United's squad see's 2nd place as a complete failure.
Until this mentality is changed, I don't think Liverpool will seirously challenge for the league.

Now Liverpool have to focus on geting 3rd or 4th place, something that is not an easy task. If I had to put a bet on it, I'd say Arsenal will finish higher than Liverpool this year, especially considering the return of Henry who they have missed a lot (but whose absence has allowed other players to make their mark). I still think Liverpool are not under-preforming with their current squad, but preforming at the level the current squad is capable of. I think that Arsenal is currently under-preforming, and a bit more steel somewhere will make them title challengers again next year, especially with the depth of their squad which is developing from their youth team.

Either way, I think currently that the battle for 3rd and 4th really should be easily won by Liverpool and Arsenal, as even though Liverpool might be finally playing at their level, the levels of the other teams below them are lower. That said, I wouldn't be suprised to see Bolton beat either Liverpool or Arsenal this year. I'm sure god will somehow intervene to stop liverpool or Arsenal not getting into the CL, last year it was food poisoning, the year before it was UEFA, this year I'd gona bet on a plague.

As for who will go down, I think it'll be Watford, Sheffield United, and either Wigan/West Ham/Charlton, with my money on Wigan.

astrofool

astrofool wrote:

[edit] Stuff that belongs in spell czechs or the english forum, not soccer [/edit]

:mad:

Pighead

redspider wrote:

Wigan could go down and are in the dog-fight now given that recent results have been poor. They are missing the likes of Chimbonda and Bullock and their senior players are a year older now and that much slower.

Redspider

A case could be made for Wigan missing Kavanagh as well. Thought it strange that he was allowed to leave so easily.

GuanYin

I agree with PHB, I honestly expect that the early season lead put out by United and Chelsea will be closed.

I think Arsenal, if they can keep a fit squad together will continue their run and translate the recent performances in the cups to the premiership.

Liverpool are still a bit puzzling, but I think they may start to come good now.

I honestly think United and Chelsea will drop points. Everyone is saying how United are crushing everyone in their path - to me, they have been winning and winning well, but they haven't been convincing as the all conquering type of team from the golden years of fergie, nor indeed the undefeated Arsenal and recent chelsea teams. An injury or a decisive loss could upset the applecart there.

Chelsea aren't quite in crissis, but something is rotten in the state of stamford bridge. I'd expect quite a few more draws and a loss or two to come their way - especially if they meet relegation teams and UEFA cup chasers. That said, Cech's return is a HUGE boost.

I'd expect the above teams to make the top four and I imagine that a 10point gab from 1st to 4th would be about right.

PHB

I don't think it'll get as small as 10 points, but I think the team that comes second will be quite close to the team that comes third, just because once they can't win they will be pretty upset and drop points. That said, if the league is won with a couple of games to spare, 10 points isn't unrealistic, as they will probably be focusing on cups or whatever they are left in.

Is Cech actually back yet, like will he play against Liverpool?

mike65

Cech is supposedly fit for Liverpool and will be wearing a face mask, I think Maureen would be mad to include him to be honest - he's bound to be ring rusty and put under early pressure cos of it.

Mike.

redspider

This is a big weekend for the league and the big 4. The results may very well determine what the clubs will get at the end of the season, but there are many permutations:

Liv v Che 12:45 Sat
Arse v Man U 16:00 Sun

Its a good time for Liverpool to meet Chelsea, if Terry is out, and considering they are having a blip along with the added internal turmoil. Of course, should Liverpool win and Man Utd win, that will make Man Utd 'champions elect with a 9 pt gap and only 14 games left. Never an easy thing to accept from a Liverpool perspective. Of course, if Arsenal win, that's more pressure for Liverpool for 3rd/4th. So, the best results for Liverpool are win for Liverpool and a draw in the other game - okay, perhaps stating the obvious. Chelsea need a win and for Man Utd to lose to make the race get more close.

Note also that Man Utd still have to play Liverpool at Anfield and Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.

So far this season, I've been predicting the top-4 as CMAL. In recent weeks, its been more like MCAL, but I'll hold off on changing anything until after this weekend.

Redspider

PHB

I would have thought the best result for Liverpool would be a win and United winning, as that would secure them third place and put them in the running for 2nd place. There's no way Liverpool are going to get 1st place realistically.

I don't think Cech would be playing if Cuddicini was availible, and I think it'd be quite silly for Cech to play if he still has to wear a face mask, as it means something is not totally healed. Furthermore, the strikers will put a lot of pressure on him, and really test how resolved he is. I'm disappointed Liverpool don't have a big strong striker who could really scare the **** out of him, but alas, I'm sure Fowler or Bellamy and muster something. Thing is, even with Terry out, I'm not confident Liverpool can win the game. That said, it is at Anfield, and they've been playing there really well, so I hope. It's always a strange day when United are cheering on Liverpool and Liverpool are cheering on United.

GuanYin

PHB wrote:

I don't think it'll get as small as 10 points, but I think the team that comes second will be quite close to the team that comes third, just because once they can't win they will be pretty upset and drop points. That said, if the league is won with a couple of games to spare, 10 points isn't unrealistic, as they will probably be focusing on cups or whatever they are left in.

10 Points looks more than realistic now!