Mairead McGuinness to contest GE in Louth

Time Magazine

From RTÉ News

FG's McGuinness to contest Louth

Mairead McGuinness, Fine Gael MEP for Ireland East, is to stand in the Louth constituency in the General Election.

Four sitting TDs are amongst those already declared for Louth.

They are Fianna Fáil's Dermot Ahern and Seamus Kirk, Sinn Féin's Arthur Morgan and Fine Gael Deputy Fergus O'Dowd.

Ms McGuinness was elected to the European Parliament in 2004. She serves on the parliament's Agriculture and Rural Development Committee, as well as the Budgets and Petitions committees.

The Ireland East MEP is a member of the Inter-Party Groups on Disability and Children's Rights, and she also serves on the Parliamentary Delegations for Romania and New Zealand.

Before entering politics, Ms McGuinness worked as a journalist.

I'd say she had her ear to the ground before deciding on this one (weh weh). I wasn't a big fan of her when she entered politics, or asthe host of Celebrity Farm, but in fairness to her she has been a very good job as an MEP since 2004.

Yes, this is another Celebrity Candidate. However, aside from a TV presenter, she was also a journalist which is as good a grounding for a politician as any; should her celebrity be held against her for this reason?

What are Fine Gael's chances for a second seat in Louth?

Well, has she successfully managed the transition to agri-politics, or is she just another fad?

ballooba

Mairead kicked Seamus Kirks ass in the Europeans in 2004. Obviously this is a completely different set of voters but if she can attract the same level of support within Louth then she could have Kirk's Dail seat.

The Louth constituency was hit hard by foot and mouth not too long ago. Mairead would be a strong candidate for Agriculture minister in a FG/Lab cabinet. This would be an attractive proposition for local farmers.

She also has the benefit of being the only female on the ballot. Meaning she could attract a lot of female voters.

This is a nice boost for FG after Gay Mitchell deciding to stay in Brussels.

Unlike events in other constituencies, I can't see Fergus O'Dowd having a problem with his new running mate.

daithimac

I dont think she is coming back to louth so she can be a minister in the next goverment but rather a viable candidate in the next fine gael leadership election

InFront

Money in the bank. Ka-ching! I can feel the government seats getting cold already as FF & Co. cross the room. (Although I concede FG have to do a tad more than score McGuinness)

Wonderful candidate, charismatic and recognizable, knows the homecrowd and whatever about the leadership, she is not coming home from Europe to sit on the back benches -- and the voters know it.

Wonderful news for Fine Gael, a great announcement in a new week.

DMC

Probably more than the front bench if she gets her seat and FG don't win the election. She'd be a popular choice to be the next leader of FG. Well, more popular within the party ranks than John Deasy! :P

Still wouldn't count out Seamus Kirk, on account of Dermot Ahern's own popularity (poll topper on last two outings.) Yes, Kirk was beaten by Mc Guinness in the European elections, but Kirk was on a weak ticket by Fianna Fail standards, he wasn't known south of the Boyne but he's well known enough in Louth. Transfers from Ahern would leave the last seat between Kirk and FG's Fergus O'Dowd (also a FG front bencher)

What's crucial here is who tops the poll, and by how much. Louth could be the bell-weather constituency this time around.

ballooba

daithimac wrote:

I dont think she is coming back to louth so she can be a minister in the next goverment but rather a viable candidate in the next fine gael leadership election

She doesn't have the experience to be FG leader. Paddy Power don't even list odds for her.

FF/PDs (not suggesting you are one of them) have started that spin because they're argument wrt Gay Mitchell has gone out the window with Mairead's decision.

FF/PD spinned Gay's decision to remain in Europe as a lack of confidence in FG's chances of being in government post G.E. They don't want Mairead's move to be seen as a vote of confidence so they are putting the above spin on it.

BTW what's the difference in salary between MEP, TD, Minister of Agriculture salary?

ballooba

DMC wrote:

Probably more than the front bench if she gets her seat and FG don't win the election. She'd be a popular choice to be the next leader of FG. Well, more popular within the party ranks than John Deasy! :P

The only person who thinks John Deasy is leadership material is John Deasy.

DMC wrote:

Transfers from Ahern would leave the last seat between Kirk and FG's Fergus O'Dowd (also a FG front bencher)

I had thought of this too. McGuinness may well outpoll O'Dowd.

Remember that FG (O'Dowd) got more FF (Maher) transfers than FF (Kirk) itself here in the last election.

FlutterinBantam

The last poster answered my first question ..what are the odds.

Anyone tell me where I can put 50 on her winning a seat in Louth because just after listening to her on the news at one she is a frikken winner...

And will be leader of FG within the next 6 years..... put yer money down.

DMC

ballooba wrote:

I had thought of this too. McGuinness may well outpoll O'Dowd.

Remember that FG (O'Dowd) got more FF (Maher) transfers than FF (Kirk) itself here in the last election.

Also worth a note is that Kirk has always had a solid vote, between 12-15% of first preferences over 25 years. Poll topper he certainly isn't and he'll never set the world on fire, but he's one of many FF TD's that get in.

ballooba

FlutterinBantam wrote:

And will be leader of FG within the next 6 years..... put yer money down.

Richard Bruton would be very hard to beat. My money will be on him. (in 5 to 11 years ;-) )

DMC wrote:

Also worth a note is that Kirk has always had a solid vote, between 12-15% of first preferences over 25 years. Poll topper he certainly isn't and he'll never set the world on fire, but he's one of many FF TD's that get in.

It's definitely Kirk's seat that O'Dowd/McGuinness will be after. I don't think anyone could argue otherwise. Ahern is solid and I reckon Morgan's popularity will only grow.

What remains to be seen is if McGuinness will cannibalise O'Dowds vote completely or if she will attract non FG voters. It appears the other FG candidate Jim D'Arcy has been asked to step aside, he refuses to do so.

DMC

ballooba wrote:

It's definitely Kirk's seat that O'Dowd/McGuinness will be after. I don't think anyone could argue otherwise. Ahern is solid and I reckon Morgan's popularity will only grow.

Yep, its the shakiest seat of the four.

ballooba wrote:

What remains to be seen is if McGuinness will cannibalise O'Dowds vote completely or if she will attract non FG voters. It appears the other FG candidate Jim D'Arcy has been asked to step aside, he refuses to do so.

This is the key. There was historically a Labour seat in this constituency, so we have never seen a second candidate elected in Louth for FG, given that FF have had two for donkeys.

ballooba

DMC wrote:

This is the key. There was historically a Labour seat in this constituency, so we have never seen a second candidate elected in Louth for FG, given that FF have had two for donkeys.

Yes, Michael Bell was a stong candidate for Labour in Louth for years. He topped the poll in 1989 and 1992.

Lately he wasn't doing too well. He failed at the G.E. in 2002 and again at the locals in 2004.

The announcement of McGuinness' candidature will be a bit of a blow to the Labour Party in Louth. They would have had a chance of getting Gerald Nash in before this, but not now.

DMC

ballooba wrote:

The announcement of McGuinness' candidature will be a bit of a blow to the Labour Party in Louth. They would have had a chance of getting Gerald Nash in before this, but not now.

With McGuinness in, I can't see where Labour can get even 5th or 6th place in a 4th seater. From poll-topper in bygone days, to a possible 7th place in a 4-seater, there must be something seriously wrong in the local Labour make-up. You'd think that the influx of Dubs to south Drogheda that Labour could make in-roads to get the seat they held for so long.

If Dominic Hannigan can possibly get a seat in Meath East for Labour, you'd think that Labour should do the same in Drogheda alone.

Any thoughts, ballooba on where the 2nd preferences for McGuinness would go? Could they be a bit scatter-gun, given that she's more a name in herself than just a FG candidate?

ballooba

DMC wrote:

Any thoughts, ballooba on where the 2nd preferences for McGuinness would go? Could they be a bit scatter-gun, given that she's more a name in herself than just a FG candidate?

Yeah, I reckon a lot of the McGuinness support will be non FG voters. As such her 2nd preferences wouldn't necessarily go to O'Dowd. Hard to know where they will go, might be a scatter gun like you say.

Unfortunately ElectionsIreland.org doesn't give a breakdown of where her 2nd preferences went in the Euros.