Unemployment Figures Rise Again!

Gurgle

Victor wrote:

Please advise me which of the following black lines is rising. ITS REALLY IMPORANT TO ME!!!!

THEY'RE ALL RISING STRAIGHT UP!!!!

You just can't see that because of your blinkered view on reality and the fact that you haven't bothered to research properly and you haven't turned your monitor 90 degrees anti-clockwise.

Hobbes wrote:

Yea I have a friend who works in FAS and said such a thing. There are a lot of people who simply are unemployable or do not want a job. I forget how much of that percentage they would take up though. Not 4% I would guess.

That 4.2% also includes:
- People recently laid off who are enjoying a couple of months living off redundancy before looking for another job.
- Scumbags, criminal record holders, drug addicts; People you wouldn't trust with a shovel and a pile of shite
- Lazy Freeloaders
- Borderline mentally disabled
- Blackmarket cash in hand workers
- Tax dodgers

Rock Climber

Gurgle wrote:

THEY'RE ALL RISING STRAIGHT UP!!!!

You just can't see that because of your blinkered view on reality and the fact that you haven't bothered to research properly and you haven't turned your monitor 90 degrees anti-clockwise.

LoL-thats funny.I thought it was a personal attack first but then I realised...

Try not to be doing that though

fly_agaric

Hobbes wrote:

In some cases no. IBM for example actually has quite a number of job vacancies that they have simply been unable to fill, even with the influx of immigrants. Simply because there are not enough people specialized in those areas in Ireland.

Offtopic, but, you mean that they can't find people who are exactly right for the job and come at the right price., don't you?:)
Most importantly, people who will not cost any time (=money) or money (also = money:)) to train up/break in.
The way businesses operate now with staff on short-term contracts you may just train someone up for their role only to let them go quite rapidly anyway...
I mean ffs, with a potential labour market of (at a guess) 200 million people I'm sure they could fill the jobs quicker if they really wanted to/were willing to compromise a bit.

MrPudding

fly_agaric wrote:

I mean ffs, with a potential labour market of (at a guess) 200 million people I'm sure they could fill the jobs quicker if they really wanted to/were willing to compromise a bit.

I can picture the interview. Well Paddy, you have all the skill we need. Good mainframe experience and some nice storage in there too. It's a shame we need someone that speaks technical Polish as the successful candidate will be supporting the Polish market.

Believe it or not, there are perfectly valid reasons for an Irish person not getting a job in Ireland other than the company trying to make extra money.

MrP

Mucco

Victor wrote:

No, 4.2% of about 2m people is about 96,500 people, the difference being made up of part-time employees and others who are signing on.

Please advise me which of the following black lines is rising. ITS REALLY IMPORANT TO ME!!!!

Our unemployment rate has been 4.5% +-0.5% since 2000 despite these millions of immigrants stealing our jobs. (Eurostat)

I'm not really sure what the point of this thread is?

MrPudding

Mucco wrote:

I'm not really sure what the point of this thread is?

I think it is the standard "they are stealing our jobs and our wimim" thread.

MrP

Gurgle

MrPudding wrote:

I can picture the interview. Well Paddy, you have all the skill we need. Good mainframe experience and some nice storage in there too. It's a shame we need someone that speaks technical Polish as the successful candidate will be supporting the Polish market.

Actually, on that topic;

Why are there so many call centres in Ireland supporting non english speaking parts of europe?

Of course its a very important sector of our economy, but I don't really understand how it got to be that way. Especially considering that wages are lower in the countries which are the market for the tech support.

MrPudding

Gurgle wrote:

Actually, on that topic;

Why are there so many call centres in Ireland supporting non english speaking parts of europe?

Of course its a very important sector of our economy, but I don't really understand how it got to be that way. Especially considering that wages are lower in the countries which are the market for the tech support.

Good question. The only one I am personally familiar with is Dell. I would imagine one of the main drivers is the low corporation tax rate.

Another reason is possibly that the good tecnical people have already left their respective countries as the money is crap. Most of the people in the Expert Centre in Dell came from HP and had already left their home countries. Dell were also recruiting in other European Countries as Ireland was very attractive to people.

That said, in the case of Dell, most of the countries suppported out of Dublin do have local support centres as well. They are for lower levels of support andfor people who have not paid extra. All EMC storage support was run out of Cherrywood regardless of the country. I think this is probably for operational reasons more than anything.

Given that cost are rising I think we will probably see even the high level stuff starting to move. Before I left Dell they were having serious trouble with recruitment and were satrting to form "Gold" support teams inthe local centres to help with overflow. I bad sign IMO.

Apparently the plant in Limerick will be moving to Poland, that is not good.

MrP

is_that_so

MrPudding wrote:

Apparently the plant in Limerick will be moving to Poland, that is not good.

MrP

I don't believe that is true. The plant in Poland is to serve other parts of Europe. There is a suggestion that they will move some production. This link highlights the disadvantages of going cheap.

On Topic. AFAIK we consider 4% as pretty much full employment in Western countries as it is tends to be hard to shift the remaining group for some of the reasons posted. There are still shortages in areas and IMO what will have most effect on the figure this year is our ability to keep wage inflation under control. That will be a tough task given the increases we have already seen. So we could see it creep up a bit more this year.

fly_agaric

MrPudding wrote:

Believe it or not, there are perfectly valid reasons for an Irish person not getting a job in Ireland other than the company trying to make extra money.
MrP

Hobbes was talking about unfillable vacancies. I didn't think he meant just unfillable with Irish people.

I was saying that if you consider the whole EU labour market there should surely be somone, Irish or not (there are not "200 million" Irish people), who can be got for the job and the companies involved must be just being excessively picky, for reasons of greed.

I sort of don't understand that sentence anyway. All of the stuff companies do (including looking for a foriegn person rather than someone Irish for a job they have based in Ireland) is obviously done in order to make more profits in so far as regulations and other constraints allow.

{e.g. Gurgle mentioning basing call centres here which need fluent speakers of x language despite costs being lower in the country where that language is spoken + posssibly employees being easier to find there. Then you suggested that the tax laws, regs etc here might make Ireland a better call-centre location than the home country (which of course allows the company to make more money)...}

Victor

mike65 wrote:

Victor where did you fish that "graph" out of?

From the report I linked to. Note that a seasonally adjusted graph may be flatter than a raw data graph.

Victor wrote:

The CSO report http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/labour_market/current/lreg.pdf So, the basic premise of the thread is wrong.

shoegirl

mike65 wrote:

I'm more interested in the fact that the unemployment level is remarkable static. 250,000 people arrive over the last 30 months or so, the natives are joining the workforce (at what net rate I dunno) and yet the live register shows the % rate as largely unchanged. 80% of claimants are defined as short term which is signing for less than 6 months.

Its indeed unique, however there is a caveat.
The overall workforce is growing rapidly (due to new jobs being created - many of them filled by migrant workers), however the unemployment rate is remaining steady. If the statistics are to remain relatively steady this means that the net number of people unemployed is in fact growing.

Since 0% of the incoming migrant population is entitled to social welfare this would suggest that the net number of IRISH people unemployed is rising steadily as the vast majority of new applicants for unemployment benefit are going to be Irish (this will steadily decrease as the numbers of migrant workers working here for 2+ years increases and they become entitled to welfare).

I would suggest that the main reason for this is the 12% average year-on-year increase in base welfare rates over the last 6 years. This compares with a raw increase of 43% in the minimum wage. As a result a worker on the minimum wage is gaining less year on year than a welfare recipient. With rising rents (impacting the lower paid more directly as they are almost entirely priced out of the housing market) this makes welfare dependency a more attractive lifestyle for many people. Since mingrants are not entitled to get these benefits it is solely (right now) impacting the native population. I would suspect that over the next 2 years we shall see a dramatic overall increase in the unemployment rate as migrants here more than 2 years become entitled to welfare. The unfortunate cumulative impact of many of the budgets will be that for an increasing number of people, work will not pay more than welfare. This, in the long term, will gradually cause an increase in social welfare dependency - and much of it will be through non-unemployment benefits such as lone parent, supplementary welfare allowance and disability payments.