Thursday Storm With Damaging Gusts Expected.

Supercell

In all the excitement with the possibility of snow this weekend onwards the stormy weather on Thursday seems to be overlooked.

The 12Z charts looks pretty bad for southern Ireland :-




There could be quite high winds for a time with this as it steamrolls through.
Westerly and southerly counties are most at risk but even in the east in Dublin and Wicklow there is likely to be damaging gusts.

nacho libre

So presumably after the depression passes the northerly winds will kick in? Is this correct?

Snowbie

No Nacho,be later on in the weekend after another LP.
Longfield,this is more severe than the cold itself.
I think at this stage that we are well use to the winds(not saying that its harmless or go unoticed) but on the horizon there is the much anxiously awaited change that is drawing peoples attention.

Supercell

Snowbie wrote:

I think at this stage that we are well use to the winds(not saying that its harmless or go unoticed) but on the horizon there is the much anxiously awaited change that is drawing peoples attention.

Yep, its been quite a winter when a system like this doesn't get peoples interest sparked.
To a large extent the track of this will effect our cold snap.

However I do feel people do need to be aware of this and if anyone takes a little extra care driving on Thursday as a result of reading this then I'm happy

Takeshi_Kovacs

Longfield wrote:

Yep, its been quite a winter when a system like this doesn't get peoples interest sparked.
To a large extent the track of this will effect our cold snap.

However I do feel people do need to be aware of this and if anyone takes a little extra care driving on Thursday as a result of reading this then I'm happy

How will this system affect the cold weather that is coming next week do you think?

Snowbie

Lets put this

Snowbie wrote:

Longfield,this is more severe than the cold itself.

and this together

Longfield wrote:

However I do feel people do need to be aware of this and if anyone takes a little extra care driving on Thursday as a result of reading this then I'm happy:)

and we might get peoples attention then;) .

Snowbie

Takeshi_Kovacs wrote:

How will this system affect the cold weather that is coming next week do you think?

This system has nothing to do with the cold directly.
Its the system thats meant to cross W-E on saturday evening which will drag in the colder air behind it.

sirpsycho

Someone wanna explain how this map suggests thursday will be stormy? (Longfield?)

Thanx in advance

Big Tone

Sirpsycho, the deepening Atlantic storm to the north-west of Ireland is tracking south-east at 990 hPa (use the legend on the right for the colour code) the isobars a tightly packed on the southern and western flank of the LP which means south, south-western and western regions of the country will bear the brunt of the winds. Possible cause for this developing is the unusually warm air over North America hitting warmer than usual waters to the West...and this year you could even look to El Nino in the Pacific for its origins.

ninebeanrows

The 6z is a very exciting run weatherwise -

Some snow today in the west.

Then tonight a deep depression pushed into Western areas and the 6z increases windspeed predictions, gusts inland to 60mph are likely with exposed locations recieving gusts possibly above 80mph.

Then towards the weekend things turn much colder with a northerly developing bringing much colder days with temperatures only reaching 2 or 3c countrywide. The cold weather will arrive late Saturday and will stay with us until the following Wednesday. Snow showers are likely with some accumlation especially in the midlands and north with the chance of perhaps one prolonged spell of snow for the country during Monday of next week.

nacho libre

Weathercheck wrote:

The 6z is a very exciting run weatherwise -

Some snow today in the west.

Then tonight a deep depression pushed into Western areas and the 6z increases windspeed predictions, gusts inland to 60mph are likely with exposed locations recieving gusts possibly above 80mph.

Then towards the weekend things turn much colder with a northerly developing bringing much colder days with temperatures only reaching 2 or 3c countrywide. The cold weather will arrive late Saturday and will stay with us until the following Wednesday. Snow showers are likely with some accumlation especially in the midlands and north with the chance of perhaps one prolonged spell of snow for the country during Monday of next week.

sounds good
Does this means the winds will switch to a North Easterly or Easterly direction by the early days of next week?

ninebeanrows

re Nachos Libre

well thats what the GFS shows

but the UKM and ECM doesn not..

Generally speaking the UKM is a poor long range model but quite to the contrary ECM is generally very good.. But then you have the GFS which ya just dont know what your going to get with it.. it ranges from excellant to dire wit its accuracy!;)

ninebeanrows

Getting back on topic..

Tomorrows storm looks like it is going to be a decent affair.

My GFS forecasts have mean speeds of [W 74 kph(W 46 mph)] for Dublin tomorrow.

I'm currently uploading the Irish Model 12z run.. will post some images as soon as they are up

Snowbie

At least there is an upgrade but a dangerous one at that.Winds are forecasted to gust stronger than at first.Up to 140km/ph.
Pressure at 992.6hpa and falling rapidily.
Rain has just started and wind picking up.

Darwin

The strong winds seemed to arrive a little behind schedule this morning - last night the wind charts were showing peak mean wind speeds around 6am. I was awake at this time and it seemed relatively calm outside. While there were some fairly severe gusts from 7.30 onwards, I wonder has the worst of the weather hit more southern counties in Munster?

PauloMN

Close to Blanchardstown here and the winds are gusting up as strong as I've ever seen them - been pretty bad for the past 2 hours I'd say. I'm looking out the window gingerly at my antenna being blown around the place hoping it stays up...

Be careful out there, easy to get blown in front of a car the wind is that strong.

Snowbie

Over 90mph gust reported at Dublin airport at 10z.

Mothman

Snowbie wrote:

Over 90mph gust reported at Dublin airport at 10z.

And Casement 80+mph. Those are serious winds for Dublin area.

My max gust is less than mean for Dublin AP which is Storm force, isn't it?.

max gust here 56mph at 10am though the aws is slightly sheltered from the west.

Amazingly the power is still on.

Mothman

Weathercheck wrote:

My GFS forecasts have mean speeds of [W 74 kph(W 46 mph)] for Dublin tomorrow.

Really undercooked it with mean at Dublin Airport nearly 60mph and Casement 55mph.

Snowbie

The flyover thats over the malahide estuary on the new M1 is known for its bad crosswinds and you can feel it in a car in a moderate breeze when crossing.Unfortunately an articulated truck has been overturned due to the wind near this bridge according to the news and one of the lads in my job who drove from skerries witnessed this.
FFS this road should be closed in these conditions.With a 90mph gust at the airport with that sort of gust im not surprised this has happened.Does this NRA have any sort of cop on to leave such a death trap opened in these conditions.There is the old M1 that could be used.

RE:Longfield,i guess the NRA dont look at the weather or this board.
Hope no one was killed.

PauloMN

Lots of road closures now, but reactive rather than proactive closures by the sounds of it i.e. the roads are blocked due to trees/debris.

Just heard on the radio that some builder got injured on a site. Guy on the radio said he saw 3 builder on a roof this morning. :eek: Crazy stuff.

Also heard that Dublin port is competely closed to incoming/outgoing traffic for the first time in its history. Just shows the severity of the conditions at present.

billy the squid

http://www.live95fm.ie/newsroom/indepth.asp?id=79388&pt=n

Sligo got some snow in all of this.

Also was reading on RTE that their biggest school was closed due to wind damage.

ninebeanrows

Fek me just in!

As i sat in Physics class this morning in the prefabs:eek:

We thought the roof was going to come off:eek:

Didnt think we had got a gust to 92mph though that really is immense:eek:

nacho libre

The strongest winds here were at about 8:30 am. I would say there was a mean wind speed of 40 mph an hour and a few gusts of around 70 mph. The mean wind speed eased significantly at around 11:30.

Gonzo

This system has caused a huge temperature range, its 15C in Devon and 0C in many parts of scotland with plenty of snow. Its around 8C here. Wind was quite bad tho I dont think I got the huge gusts that happened around Dublin.

MAYPOP

A few roof tiles were blown off my house, doh!

Gonzo

Gonzo wrote:

This system has caused a huge temperature range, its 15C in Devon and 0C in many parts of scotland with plenty of snow. Its around 8C here. Wind was quite bad tho I dont think I got the huge gusts that happened around Dublin.

Dublin airport is very exposed to a westerly.Only exposed parts of Dublin would have seen gusts like what they got.The gusts would have been tempered by the urban enviroment elsewhere in the city.

However if you were on the roof of a tall building :eek: :eek:

Mothman

Snowbie wrote:

The flyover thats over the malahide estuary on the new M1 is known for its bad crosswinds and you can feel it in a car in a moderate breeze when crossing.Unfortunately an articulated truck has been overturned due to the wind near this bridge according to the news and one of the lads in my job who drove from skerries witnessed this.
FFS this road should be closed in these conditions.With a 90mph gust at the airport with that sort of gust im not surprised this has happened.Does this NRA have any sort of cop on to leave such a death trap opened in these conditions.There is the old M1 that could be used.

RE:Longfield,i guess the NRA dont look at the weather or this board.
Hope no one was killed.

The NRA are not to blame.

No one predicted that this was going to be more than a "normal" winter storm that we can expect each year.
Met Eireann upped their forecast to 140km/h which most pundits thought about right, but for exposed locations. Dublin AP doesn't come into that category. For an inland site (though close to sea) it is exposed, but not a Malin Head or a Belmullet.

The gust this morning of 92mph gust are truely exceptional and is the strongest gust at the Airport since at least 1958. Previous highest since 1958 was 87mph in Dec 97, presumaby aound Christmas time.
I don't have figures for mean speeds.

I'm putting words in WC's mouth, but I doubt even his wild prediction would have mentioned 90mph+ gust in north Dublin.

The Jan 1st 2005 gust that moved aircraft was 84mph.

Why I didn't get these winds today I don't know. My Dad 7 miles north recorded 51mph with a low anemometer in a sheltered garden. This would probably equate close to 70mph with a probably exposed instrument.
My max gust was 52mph.

PauloMN

The wind has all but died off here in Clonee (near Blanchardstown), it's just the usual winter breezy weather now.

But from around 9am to 12pm or so some of the gusts were unbelievable, I've only ever seen gusts like it when we had that freak tornado thing on Jan 1st a couple of years back.

My office is in the attic of the house - felt like the roof was going to come off at times!

Snowbie

Why arent they to blame the NRA,they do have met equipment on major roads and do have the power to shut down dual carraigways like the Guards.
If myself and longfield new about damaging gusts 70 or 80mph +(why i changed the title of this thread the other evening and were amateurs)why cant someone who is in authority do something about this.
What im saying is you have the crosswind warning signs up ahead the bridge,but unless you have not travelled on it i can tell you its like a wind tunnel crosswind nightmare and would have certainly avoided it in any wind event.There could have been a major accident on it this morning,thankfully not.

and also you can see the airport from this flyover,its just as exposed as the airport.