General Election

Victor

So when do you expect General Election 2007 to be held?

Heinrich

May!

The_Minister

Didn't Bertie narrow it down to a certain month when he went on Tuberty?

Kojak

IMO, May is when the general election will be held.

User45701

thats odd i never knew that.
One would assume that elections are at the exact same time every time to prevent manupalation to allow someone to hold there position longer

Dontico

i vote coup!

Time Magazine

User45701 wrote:

thats odd i never knew that.
One would assume that elections are at the exact same time every time to prevent manupalation to allow someone to hold there position longer

It's a maximum of five years. But Bertie can dissolve the government at any time, so he can run it for 4 years and eleven months if he likes.

The_Minister

User45701 wrote:

One would assume that elections are at the exact same time every time to prevent manupalation to allow someone to hold there position longer

There are good, honest reasons that a general election would be called early: inability to form a government, a government seeking approval for a controversial agenda (see Germany), or a scandel that has weakened a government enough that it would be impossible for them tto continue.

stipey

There are good, honest reasons that a general election would be called early: inability to form a government, a government seeking approval for a controversial agenda (see Germany), or a scandel that has weakened a government enough that it would be impossible for them tto continue.

or a snap election - called well before the term of government is up but at a time that the incumbents can't put a foot wrong and want to catch the opposition on the hop.

For example deValera in 1944 - or (for an example of how not to do it) Haughey in 81 (he was voted out of power).

LostinBlanch

Except that the opposition are watching out for this. They won't be caught out by a snap election. This time anyway.

stipey

LostinBlanch wrote:

Except that the opposition are watching out for this. They won't be caught out by a snap election. This time anyway.

I agree... well they'd want to be watching out for it at this stage - with 4-ish months to polling day!

If a snap election is defined as "any election that takes place earlier than scheduled", anything before latest possible polling date is, by definition, a snap election.

In my opinion the key element is catching the opposition completely unaware - so anything inside the final year of a term won't really achieve that as the cogs will be turning by that stage in terms of fund raising and campaign planning. [edit] So although it may be a snap election in theory, in practice it probably shouldn't be called one. [/edit]

In any case, barring some divisive issue, there is really no point in calling one unless the government can't put a foot wrong in the eyes of the electorate. Obviously that doesn't really apply in this case and although FF are guaranteed their 40% and confident of getting back into office, I don't think the PD's would be as optimistic.

DMC

The time has passed for when a election could be called a snap election.

I would define a snap election as one that occurs more than 6 months before the last possible date one has to be held. By that definition, then, if Bertie called one while in the midst of his financial woes, then it would've been snap. As we are within 6 months of an election, and as the parties have almost all finalised their candidates, internal polls are being conducted, this is the relative calm before the storm.

As remarked before, winter elections (like Feb/Nov 1982) are clearly not favoured by the parties. You will notice that tallymen would also remark on the weather; if its dry, expect a better turnout than if it were wet.

May 18th or 25th, imo.

Chakar

Bertie dissolved the 28th Dail on the 25th April 2002 and the 2002 election was held three weeks later on the 17th of May.

I'll say it will be quite similar this year.

antSionnach

What is the latest he can legally go? IMO he will want to squeeze every last drop out of the press as he can, again...

Victor

Personally, I wonder if Bertie would go for 29th March so he can get in the "All Ireland elections" bit.

antSionnach wrote:

What is the latest he can legally go?

5 years after 17th May 2002 is the last day he can call an election and the election would happen in the following 3-4 weeks.

Only in profound circumstances would the situation arise where the 7 year limit in the constitution (as opposed to 5 years in the Electoral Acts) would be used.