Forecasts only.High pressure to stick around.

Snowbie

For the last week we have our HP to the west bringing down a northerly flow across Ireland.It is now slipping to the south of the country alowing in a westerly flow to take over bringing the temperatures back to average.On the plus side no strong winds or heavy rain(Zonality)is forecast this week,except for the odd rain interuption mainly in the west.

As with a strong anticyclone it is more accurate to forecast beyond a 3 day peroid and more into FI.(Fantasy island).
Now it gets a bit more interesting with a -AO(Neg Artic Oscilation) and the high potential of pressure rise over the Artic and Greenland which will mean a more potent Northern block and reintroducing colder Northerlies across Ireland maybe in little over a week away.
This is however a bit deeper in FI and can swing either way

Again puts model watching this week back on the agenda.

ninebeanrows

J'adore





Sooooo far away but decent ensembles agreement on the 0z... we await the 6z ensembles in 30 minutes;)

Lately WC,I come in here when I see your posts just to brighten up my day

J'adore is right

You should have saved that chart though as the link will show something different in your post when the 12z is out etc etc.

ninebeanrows

Tristrame wrote:

Lately WC,I come in here when I see your posts just to brighten up my day

J'adore is right

You should have saved that chart though as the link will show something different in your post when the 12z is out etc etc.

Yes i really should have... now it looks like i love mild southwesterlies:D

darkman2

The control run is AMAZING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:eek: :eek: :eek:

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-0-348.png

ninebeanrows

darkman2 wrote:

The control run is AMAZING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:eek: :eek: :eek:

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-0-348.png

Suppose it looks okay :rolleyes:

Might just be cold enough for snow from that chart but condtions would have to be perfect and dewpoints etc..:)


hahhaa:D

Sierra Oscar

Oh noes.....:(

SpitfireIV

darkman2 wrote:

The control run is AMAZING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:eek: :eek: :eek:

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-0-348.png

Warthercheck wrote:

Suppose it looks okay

Might just be cold enough for snow from that chart but condtions would have to be perfect and dewpoints etc..


hahhaa

Ok, can someone please explain to me (in layman terms ) just what the hell is going on?? Is there another event in the near further, or just some charts in FI thats gotten some imaginations working overtime?

ninebeanrows

CroppyBoy1798 wrote:

Ok, can someone please explain to me (in layman terms ) just what the hell is going on?? Is there another event in the near further, or just some charts in FI thats gotten some imaginations working overtime?

Some charts in FI has got the imaginations running again:eek: :rolleyes:

Lack of snow make me go crazy:D

although there is a chance of a cold spell in early February from around the 5th.. if we were to get a stroke of luck;)

Indeed.
I'd expect it to be a 3 day wonder with sleet on the coast and a cm or 2 around carlow as per usual recently.

Basically it seems that WE need the cold that KENT used get in the 80's for our snow now-they are getting what we used get back then if you follow me.

My trips onto the mountains in our recent sleety spells (and thats all they are even if it is snowing) underline how its usually 1 to 2 c too warm in recent years and you have to climb to 1500 ft to see the icicles that we used get years ago at sea level.

As for the FI runs-one or two swallows dont make a summer as one or two runs dont make a winter.
Expect them to be pushed further and further back and if something does happen,it will be in march when in recent warmer times it will be too late.

ninebeanrows

Tristrame wrote:

Indeed.
I'd expect it to be a 3 day wonder with sleet on the coast and a cm or 2 around carlow as per usual recently.

Basically it seems that WE need the cold that KENT used get in the 80's for our snow now-they are getting what we used get back then if you follow me.

My trips onto the mountains in our recent sleety spells (and thats all they are even if it is snowing) underline how its usually 1 to 2 c too warm in recent years and you have to climb to 1500 ft to see the icicles that we used get years ago at sea level.

As for the FI runs-one or two swallows dont make a summer as one or two runs dont make a winter.
Expect them to be pushed further and further back and if something does happen,it will be in march when in recent warmer times it will be too late.

God way to sum things up in just a short few sentences.

Although there is one good thing on our side, i will be sitting my mocks from February 6th so if there is ever likely to be a cold spell, that's the time.

We won't know until around Tuesday/Wednesday whether this cold spell is really likely.

Supercell

The Kent stuff is marginal tbh, they think all is fine and winters are in fact better than ever, the truth is they were not marginal in a cold spell, but i'll bet in the next 5-10 years the kent winter spells turn into drizzle spells like here.

Snow is extinct here below 500 meters or a severe cold snap.

arctictree

Longfield wrote:

Snow is extinct here below 500 meters or a severe cold snap.

Ha - The winter is far from over yet, Longfield!

Hope you've recovered from the 'minor' snow event last week.

Friday onwards looks interesting on wetterzentrale. Where that high goes
from there is anyones guess.

A

Danno

It is getting pushed back all the time, downgraded, etc...

Basically Global Warming is truely in charge now... expect this theme to continue.

When Bulgaria is over 20c warmer than average, then it is time to give up.

Linky: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/world/news/22012007news.shtml

Imagine 20c warmer than average here in January?

MetLuver

Thats not strictly true. Global warming may only be partly to blame for this recent warm spate of winters. The Atlantic ocean is currently going through a warm phase this is the main reason its been so mild, the positive NOA the past few years has warmed our seas so much that it is nearly impossible to have a sustained cold spell. The pacific decadle oscillation PDO is a cousin of the NAO and currently is going through a cold phase when that changes so will our weather.

ninebeanrows

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-216.GIF?29-0

Tonights ECM remind anyone of anything:D

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1982/Rrea00119820108.gif

Overall though to be honest things are about as uncertain as they could be;)

Danno

MetLuver wrote:

Thats not strictly true. Global warming may only be partly to blame for this recent warm spate of winters. The Atlantic ocean is currently going through a warm phase this is the main reason its been so mild, the positive NOA the past few years has warmed our seas so much that it is nearly impossible to have a sustained cold spell. The pacific decadle oscillation PDO is a cousin of the NAO and currently is going through a cold phase when that changes so will our weather.

And when this is finished, the solar activity will be getting going again... piff, excuses the whole time on why we are getting mild winter after mild winder. This is mild winter number 19 ON THE TROT. Global warming is real and IS WHY we are not getting cold winters anymore.

MetLuver

:eek: Whow there! down boy. Whats with all the piffs and puffs be god, im just trying to state that there are other factors involved and that nothing with the weather is black and white!
Excuse me if I seemed to suggest I dont think global warming is not a factor-of corse it is and I believe I mentioned global warming is only PARTLY to blame I didnt say it wasnt to blame at all.

darkman2

Some good news on the GFS today, very much the possibility of transitional snow later next week.:)

ninebeanrows

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.png

They say a 1982 event cant happen again but ... we've got some very similar charts been progged..

Were just an inch from a spectacular set-up.. and it could pop up on us without warning..

Keeps your eyes on the models..

Hal1

Met.ie is predicting some accumulations of the white stuff in the north east on monday, surely thats a good sign if thats the direction its coming from.

Supercell

Hal1 wrote:

Met.ie is predicting some accumulations of the white stuff in the north east on monday, surely thats a good sign if thats the direction its coming from.

Based on the current model output , this is probably only true for those above 600 metres (does anyone live that high up in Ireland???).

For the rest of us its probably rain or drizzle.

We need -8°C at the 850 heights imho before there is a remote chance of snow, -10°C for substantial sea level snow( >1cm lying at 09:00 AM ) that might settle (thats about a 1 in 10 year chance these days it seems)

Am looking at the current charts and not getting excited, no proper cold there at all, just brief chance of snow on some mountaintops and maybe at lower levels in N Ireland.

arctictree

Longfield wrote:

Based on the current model output , this is probably only true for those above 600 metres (does anyone live that high up in Ireland???).

I know the military road in Wicklow hits 500M in spots. This could be the highest public road in Ireland. Maybe there is one in Kerry thats higher??

The road to the upper reservoir at Turlough Hill goes above 600 but I think thats private.

A

Takeshi_Kovacs

arctictree wrote:

I know the military road in Wicklow hits 500M in spots. This could be the highest public road in Ireland. Maybe there is one in Kerry thats higher??

The road to the upper reservoir at Turlough Hill goes above 600 but I think thats private.

A

I think the Conor pass is one of the highest, i'm not sure about exact height, but anytime it snows, it usually has to be closed..

darkman2

Latest GFS gives heavy snow to our freinds across the water. Nothing for us although things are changing all the time so we are still in with a shout. At least if they did get their blizzard in the UK it would stop some of the moaning:p

arctictree

Tomorrow looks like a cracker of a day. Looks downhill from Tuesday onwards....

I think it will get milder then - are all the charts agreeing on this??

A

ninebeanrows

Longfield wrote:

Based on the current model output , this is probably only true for those above 600 metres (does anyone live that high up in Ireland???).

For the rest of us its probably rain or drizzle.

We need -8°C at the 850 heights imho before there is a remote chance of snow, -10°C for substantial sea level snow( >1cm lying at 09:00 AM ) that might settle (thats about a 1 in 10 year chance these days it seems)

Am looking at the current charts and not getting excited, no proper cold there at all, just brief chance of snow on some mountaintops and maybe at lower levels in N Ireland.

Well a 3 day cold spell with frost and some snow showers for the far noth from this weekend.

With regard to the low approaching around monday... the whole thing about 850 temps and dewpoints really get thrown out the window.. once 850'a are below freezing ie -1/-2c and 2m temperatures are freezing it can snow even with a high DP.

Nothing is clear yet and the breakdown next week will change lots of times before it Monday comes.

Danno

I am after looking at all the models, GFS, JMA, NGP, GEM, GME and even Hirlam. NONE of them are in agreement! This could go anyway.

Trogdor

I think that low won't make as much progress west as is being shown which could let the colder air to the east come slightly further west with the ppn stalling over ireland or maybe not even making it. Although with things chopping and changing so much on the models atm, it's impossible to forecast anything past 48 hours.

darkman2

UKMO is a real boost to our prospects. Might not look like much but this is coming up against really cold air on a steep thermal gradient and the 528DAM line just to its north.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

Supercell

Charts are still all over the place, encouragingly some of them are showing 850's below -8°C, wheter we get precipitation though is another matter while the upper air is that cold.

All to play for, too early to write it off, too early to get excited either though.

Fingers and toes crossed here.