Forecasts only.High pressure to stick around.

Scubadevils

I fear that by the looks of things if anything in terms of snow comes off that it will be too far east for us, certainly looks that way today anyway.

ninebeanrows

Many solutions are possible at this stage.

All thats pretty concrete is colder conditions to arrive next Monday with potential for some heavy frontal snowfall towards Wednesday across northern and northeastern areas in particular.. This off course is very uncertain at this point.

But we all know memorable snow events are always knive edge situations. Hopefully the 0z will offer better guidance because the disagreement with tonights 18z ensembles is not helping the situation!!!;)

Scubadevils

Yes but in my very amatuer opinion, the last few runs seem to be agreeing more that the potential mild/cold battle will take place over the UK, more so the Eastern half. I know its knife edge for the UK still, but it looks razor edge for us, if even.

rc28

Im surprised it's so quiet in here what with all the excitement about what the models are showing for next week?
Weather check is discussing it today:
http://weathercheck.net/
The english weather forums are buzzing with it too:
http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=36136&st=119
http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/forums/18/180934/ShowThread.aspx

I'm no expert at all so can someone with more knowledge of how to read model output charts say if ireland has a chance of seeing a coldsnap anytime soon.

SpitfireIV

I guess there is no excitement as its still so uncertain still, anything could happen, and from reading WeatherCheck its talking about the Northeast getting snow.....on Thursday night/Friday, thats still a long way off, and I dont live in the Northeast...darn :rolleyes:

ninebeanrows

Good morning folks, things are looking so interesting..

After much debate on the upcoming weather, slowly over the last 24 hours high pressure had been increasingly progged over Scandy! yes a Scandy high!
And this morning UKM,GFS have this Scandyhigh in good feather..

From tomorrow cold air will push down from the north temperatures will probably be higher than today nonetheless due to this mornings freezing fog.

Monday night will see a hard frost across Ireland, with signs of pressure building over souther Norway.. meanwhile out in the Atlantic low pressure systems will be trying to push in.

Tuesday will be a very cold day maxes of 2-5c as some cloud moves in from the west. It will be a bitterly cold day. Pressure meanwhile will be upto 1035mb over Scandanavia. Meanwhile cloud will be spilling into the west ahead of a shortwave. Temperatures will rise in the far west but there will be a harsh frost in the east and north.

Now this is where it could get interesting, this shortwave is forecast to swing south and tracking into southern England pushing the cold air over the UK and continent back into the east. And bringing with it lots of precip. Heavy snow is likely along the northern bank of this precipitation. And under the right conditions really big falls of snow are likely..

This shortwave will then track into europe with a slack eastery flow following..

This is all uncertain atm but is what the UKM and GFS progg
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

So exciting with so much potential for further development, this Scandy high is going to cause mayhem!:D

lucernarian

Hehe, a typically bullish post from Weathercheck. There is an interesting secondary LP on Friday night in the 06z run which would give northern parts of the british isles a significant amount of snow, though the LP is not quite willing to slide southwards. It's still better than the deep depression in the Atlantic which was to push into the block between Ireland and Iceland.

I'm certain when I say that the models are terribly unreliable for the end of next week. It's a very very complex situation and one to be watched:)

rc28

Yes, now meteireann have completely changed their mild forecast. They are now giving no mention of mild weather and are going for prolonged "rain,sleet and snow" for wednesday and thursday. In any cold snap they always include rain with sleet and snow in their forecasts to be on the safe side:
http://www.met.ie/
Where is everyone and the cold ramping to go with it???

arctictree

OK - was holding off until we got some mention of it on met.ie.

Yeah, their forecast has completely changed now.

So looks like precip on Tuesday with further precip on Wed/Thurs. Again, its all down to temps.

BTW - I can see the north east flank of Lugnaquilla from here and there is still snow on it from the last event!

A

ninebeanrows

rc28 wrote:

Yes, now meteireann have completely changed their mild forecast. They are now giving no mention of mild weather and are going for prolonged "rain,sleet and snow" for wednesday and thursday. In any cold snap they always include rain with sleet and snow in their forecasts to be on the safe side:
http://www.met.ie/
Where is everyone and the cold ramping to go with it???

It is because of there is such uncertainty!

Like the models diverge at 72hrs:eek:

Hopefully some good ensemble agreement although the persistant increase in the cold spell is a very welcome trend:D

Looks very interesting and all in the week of my Mocks... typical!! It was bound to happen wasn't it:rolleyes:

ninebeanrows

Here's an interesting one for you..

I wake up on Thursday morning it's beginning to snow heavily by 8am theres a few inches on the ground do i go to my English PP2 exam:o and then i come back at lunch.. theres 9 inches of snow.. do i go to my Maths PP1 exam after lunch:eek: :rolleyes:

lucernarian

Rain, sleet and snow usually means snow on higher ground. The latest model outputs look good, but it's too borderline to call. We really shouldn't get our hopes up, look at 12th March last year. Rain on the east coast with snow on the Isle of Mann! For a location like Ireland, things need to be particularly well balanced for a memorable event.

And remember, the easterly has to cross over a warmer-than-average Irish Sea. I'm going to back the cold rain option, but with the HP to resist the LP and remain in place somewhere near Scandanavia. The 00z ECM is not a likely outcome I feel.

On the bright side, look at this simply brilliant 00z UKMO chart:
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rukm1201.gif

rc28

Don't forget people that the farming forecast is on at 1:15. I hope it's not that awful pessimistic one who seems to love mild boring muck, i forget his name

ninebeanrows

That forecast there was pretty poor/ the gulf in class between that forecast and the Uk Meto's one is quite embarrassing!

I think they covered there bottoms enough.. but the charts they progged were from the wildly mild ECM outlier from this morning..

And the confidence he placed in the LP's getting across come the end of the weeks was abit misplaced..

A poor forecast but i think they just about will get away with it when we get snowed in on Thursday:p

lucernarian

I agree, the forecast was very, very similar to the 00z ecm which I thought was not a likely outcome. He was keeping the snow on the table, though I think he was right to downplay the risk of snow. But it's a little early to call it "transitional" sleet/snow.;)

Snowbie

You cannot call snow if its not certain and especially this far out EG:Met IE

If whoever is forecasting snow on thursday on this forum, MET IE will not say anything till Wedensday.Rule of thumb.

Tis why they have the rain sleet snow garble on the forecast.There unsure.In fact so am i.

lucernarian

From what I can see, in these borderline situations, the mountains are quite likely to get snow no matter if the outcome is on the warm or cold side. I thought he was correct to keep it limited to wintry precipitation as it's uncertain still.

Snowbie, I think WC was being ironic when he mentioned snow on Thursday. His mocks and all that.

And back to the models:D

So far there is an amazing difference in this run!! The LP has moved a fair distance southwards and turned into a channel low, except the HP has completely deflected the precipitation southwards. This event is truly a bitch to nail down. It seems certain anyway that the HP will be stronger than anyone thought it would be.

How did the ECMWF get rid of the HP as soon as t+72? The GFS has moved even further away from the ECM prediction.

By the way, it looks like the UKMO are the best model so far at picking up the trends for this week. But still 4/5 days of changes to go:)

ninebeanrows

12z moves the low too far south on Wednesday/ Second bash gives transitional snow...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

The cold spell has been prologned and upgraded so much in the last few runs!!:D

darkman2

You know if that was slightly further north......


Still great run. Great potential. Heavy snow for a time before rain but still 48hrs is probrably fantasy Island atm and dont forget the nightmare ECM.

lucernarian

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1262.png

What more can I say:p A pity the chart is for over 5 days away... It can't really get better than that if I wanted a channel low to bring snow to Louth.

"It's a long way to go..."

Trogdor

The GFS 12z actually gives us snow showers on Wednesday morning from the Easterly winds:D. Still lots of change to come though.
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/2007/02/04/basis12/enen/rart_07020712_0412.gif?0b87315d84f34f53240f49a1bafc4326
and thursady night into friday before the main event
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/2007/02/04/basis12/enen/rart_07020906_0412.gif?fa352d06ef8d0242619be16d4e233c59
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/2007/02/04/basis12/enen/rart_07020906_0412.gif?fa352d06ef8d0242619be16d4e233c59

Snowbie

Transitional snow for southern mountains maybe with but with winds off the Irish sea,not a chance of lying snow along the coast.Sea temps still too warm.

ninebeanrows

Snowbie wrote:

Transitional snow for southern mountains maybe with but with winds off the Irish sea,not a chance of lying snow along the coast.Sea temps still too warm.

Disagree with that ... conditions are perfect for low level snow to the coast

Supercell

Weathercheck wrote:

Disagree with that ... conditions are perfect for low level snow to the coast

No way, where is the easterly from Siberia??, thats what an 80's style easterly brought.

Sleet at best in coastal locations, may some snow at night (but very sleety), so far don't see any chance of coastal lying snow.

Maybe some here, but I'd rate the chance of that at the 30% level at best.
Close but no cigar for most in Ireland I reckon (in the south and east..maybe far north east off Antrim might see some snow at low levels.)

All to play for still, but don't expect to see low lying snow in the Dublin coastal areas from this unless the 850's get closer to the -10°C mark.

Snowbie

Weathercheck wrote:

Disagree with that ... conditions are perfect for low level snow to the coast

But i didnt say it wouldnt snow,i said ly-ing snow will not happen.
However 82 was the last time i saw transitional snow here by the coast that stuck,so many near misses including last march when it lashed down sleety rain when managing a footie match out in clondalkin while my co.manager was watchin UTD in old trafford later on in the afternoon and was pelted with snow from the same front that crossed us earlier in the day,and also the air was alot colder last march than its meant to be this week.

Prepare to be disapponted yet again.

Snowbie

Agreed Longfield,you should get a fair wollop from this.
Transitional snow by the east coast=Traditional odd flake sleety rain muck.

ninebeanrows

Snowbie wrote:

Agreed Longfield,you should get a fair wollop from this.
Transitional snow by the east coast=Traditional odd flake sleety rain muck.

I am my re-formed non rampy self these days..

But i have to say i do honestly believe there will be lying snow in Dublin at some stage this week

The cold spell just keeps on getting prolonged..

The only stepping stone before this gets translated into our Met forecasts is for the ECM to jump onboard. It is the only model not taking the bait.

But that does not faze me because it has been awful of late

Supercell

Weathercheck wrote:

I am my re-formed non rampy self these days..

But i have to say i do honestly believe there will be lying snow in Dublin at some stage this week

But artictree and myself don't live in Dublin

All to play for, probably at T+12 it will still be a knife edge situation.

Snowbie

I hope its in our neck of the woods Wc but Dublin airport will be better placed than us being inland and higher up.
TBH wouldn mind a bit of snow on the ground for a change but im not convinced mainly all on passed experiences.We shall wait closer the time.

arctictree

Hmmm - The model on GFS now looks very interesting for Thurs:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.html

Seems a different type of weather to the last one....
A