Forecasts only.High pressure to stick around.

Snowbie

Here is an interesting read from last march 06.Sounds and looks familiar to the lateset scenario.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2054900736

ninebeanrows

Snowbie wrote:

Here is an interesting read from last march 06.Sounds and looks familiar to the lateset scenario.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2054900736

To be honest it looks quite different

Firstly it was during mid March.. secondly the breakdown was much more straightforward.. if anything it gives me confidence that Glasgow managed some of the stuff!!!

Snowbie

My point being it was much colder back in mid march last year than now and still we got nothing from that set up.Im just finding it difficult to pinpoint a setup that will give lying snow to low levels in the east,imo i dont see a case atm.:(

EDit:Glasgow is well inland and will do well in these situations.

arctictree

Snowbie wrote:

My point being it was much colder back in mid march last year than now and still we got nothing from that set up.Im just finding it difficult to pinpoint a setup that will give lying snow to low levels in the east,imo i dont see a case atm.:(

Would that chart I posted below for Thurs not give lying snow at sea level?

Still 4 days away I suppose....

A

Snowbie

Looks good but for an ESE coming onshore from a warmish Irish sea will be bad news to us coastal people,a little further inland makes the difference.You mountain lads will have no problem seeing some lying snow.

darkman2

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW96-21.GIF


I think the charts look very good for snow but still changes will occur between now and then;)

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/126_30.gif

arctictree

Hmm - The charts that eagleton showed at 9:30 for Thurs seem to be very different from the ones below. Will have to wait for a couple more days for more certainty...

A

nacho libre

Well, i'm not getting my hopes up but Wednesday night looks good for some snow in my location.

Scubadevils

Do the Irish Met use ECM for forecasting?

ninebeanrows

Yes the have used the raw ECM with absolutely no thoughts on the other major models.. really poor forecasting .. maybe they know something i don't but i really don't think they do.

ECM is out on its on this evening and is basically the mildest member of the ECM ensembles.

Scubadevils

Weathercheck wrote:

Yes the have used the raw ECM with absolutely no thoughts on the other major models.. really poor forecasting .. maybe they know something i don't but i really don't think they do.

ECM is out on its on this evening and is basically the mildest member of the ECM ensembles.

Cheers, thats good to hear. Did you see on NW the conversation also re NOAA and they feel the models are being too progressive in the movement of the lows across the atlantic? Good news also I assume if its the case.

darkman2

The 18z seems to be progging a mini blizzard on Thursday for practically the entire country. I can see why given the evolution.

ninebeanrows

Hellll yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa:D

Me likes the 18zz....................

wahooooooooooooooo

lucernarian

There is something I like a lot about the last few GFS runs. There are 2 LPs to consider which are crossing somewhere between Normandy and Belfast at the extreme. With one being more northerly than the other, if one LP gives us rain then the other one forecast snow.

At the moment, Thursday afternoon is the favoured time for any wintry weather. While the models could change substantially, the forecast of two LPs with slightly different paths effectively doubles our chances of seeing some heavy snow for a time this week. It's certainly all to play for and we are in double-digit hours now.:)

But take heed of very warm SSTs. The precipitation is guaranteed. We don't need convective activity, we need a cold airmass. The wind direction and the strength of the cold can make or break Ireland's latest chance of snow.

And to bring us back down to reality:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!96!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2007020412!!/
This run is standing by the earlier run.:(

Snowbie

Just a thought,but imagine us joined to the UK by landmass only,Dublin smack bang central.Christ all that transitional snow with no sea to worry about.Just a thought.

darkman2

From the charts and faxes atm I am quite confident that a frontal snow event is probrable particularly on Thursday. The Sea does not bother me one bit as I know whats need for Snow but anyway to counter Snowbie's argument, he forgets one VERY crucial thing. The winds will be cyclonic strong Easterly therefore coming off the UK Landmass where snow is already highly likely to be falling. With temperatures of 4C in the Irish sea progged this is not enough to dilute the airmass. The Irish sea just is not big enough for that kind change. Now with 528 DAM line on our shores and the 850's at -7C and a steep thermal gradient - things looking increasingly wintry at this stage.:cool:

lucernarian

The LP is not nailed yet. It's a great outlook now but the ecm has continued on its own tangent. The 528 line on our shores will not bring us guaranteed snow. The latest FAX charts do not bring the coldest air to the west of the Irish Sea. But darkman2 has a reasonable assessment. My "cold rain only" forecast is looking too pessimistic so I'll go with extended periods of sleet at low levels too. But I won't hope for anything more or fear for less until t+60 has arrived.

Snowbie, there wouldn't be enough room on one island for the 4 different "countries". The man upstairs kept us and them apart with a hundred odd miles of water for a reason:p But the snow would be nice.

darkman2

I think the titille of this thread is now redundant and a new topic for this weeks possibilities should be started:p

arctictree

Yes - new thread I think.

Jeez - Thursdays chart from the UKMO looks like a cracker:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/charts/FSXX00T_84.jpg

If that were to materialise, we could be in business...

A

ninebeanrows

Oh dear! This is going to go right down to the wire..

More northern areas favoured this morning...

UKM - Great
GFS - Poor
ECM - OKay

It's almost like there playing good cop bad cop..:rolleyes:

Snowbie

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