Cold throughout the coming week.Snow for some

Snowbie

As per the 7.55am weather on RTE radio they have "indicated snow for the midlands and the north midlands thursday and again for friday".This be only a sleet event with wet snow mixed in low leveled coastal areas.

Snowbie

Darkman2 wrote:

From the charts and faxes atm I am quite confident that a frontal snow event is probrable particularly on Thursday. The Sea does not bother me one bit as I know whats need for Snow but anyway to counter Snowbie's argument, he forgets one VERY crucial thing. The winds will be cyclonic strong Easterly therefore coming off the UK Landmass where snow is already highly likely to be falling. With temperatures of 4C in the Irish sea progged this is not enough to dilute the airmass. The Irish sea just is not big enough for that kind change. Now with 528 DAM line on our shores and the 850's at -7C and a steep thermal gradient - things looking increasingly wintry at this stage.

In theory yes sounds wonderful but realistic M4 buoy off the Dublin coast is reporting sea temp of 8.7c with air 6.3c at 8.00am this morning.
For now thats not good if we get an easterly coming onshore for snow at low levels and i dont see the sea or air temp falling much lower than this.Just not cold enough to peg this back.
Where do you get the notion that the uk landmass will chill us down,theres 57 miles of warmish but not coldish water between us and angelsey island and which is more than enough to impact the temp of the air above it.

Dublin airport will have a better chance of snow than the coast being 75m up and 4 miles inland.Looks like you WC and i will be snookered on this one.

EDIt:Where were you two weeks ago when we got rain by the coast and ashbourne got snow.That was a cold source with a gradual turn to a NE direction,what does that tell you.I think there is a lot of hopecasting going on for low levels coastal areas in the east.How id love it to be true but sketchy atm.

This looks like a very marginal event to me.
If this were the early 1990's,I'd be more confident of snow but there has been an ambient temperature rise since then in Ireland on average of over a degree.
They say a week is a long time in politics but a degree celcius is a pretty big dividing line between rain and snow or between sleet and snow.

I think snow for ground above 600ft inland is a certainty.I think Longfield will be pushing out the door with the snow by the end of the week but as for sea level-it's going to be wet and slushy at best if anything at all.

Since it's marginal though,of course sea level and coastal areas could get snow and if it falls,that in itself will drag the temperature down further than what it is programmed to be.
Snow falling heavily will settle whilst it is falling,it just wont last on the coast in daylight sunshine when temps are above 2c which they will be.

Now regarding the Irish sea - I think Darkman is seriously underestimating its effect!

In january 1982 Rosslare got rain for about half of the spell,yes rain and that was under some of the best conditions possible for such an event.It did turn to snow there eventually but the Irish sea did have an effect.

On the plus side, the reason it probably turned back to snow there was partly because the air flow was out of a very cold and snowy wales at the time.

This time,Coastal wales is not near as cold and wont be,the sea is a lot hotter and we dont have an air feed from siberia.

So lets be realistic here if its snow you want-the chances at sea level on the coast are about 40% and no more but it is a significant risk ie not a certainty,rather a probability.
The risk in my opinion for inland areas (greater that 5 miles) rises by another 20% and if you are above 500ft and greater than 5 miles inland ,snow becomes almost definite.

Some favoured areas will see a lot of snow I think this week.

darkman2

Of course you cannot rule out rain on Coasts but IMO it would snow on the coast. Anyway dont have time to go into it now.

The UKMO and ECM both excellent for our prospects. The GFS is not so good however this is only one run by one model. So still very happy generally with the charts barring a disaster later this evening;)

darkman2

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2007020506&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=048hr

UKMO 6z for 48hrs out:eek:

The difference are quite stark between that and the GFS.

Snowbie

Are you talking about lying snow,snowman weather DM?.IF we see snowflakes at some stage wheather it settles is the 64k question with odds stacked against us.It is one of those situations when it snows but only settles on the likes of water run offs eg:your car windscreen, slanted shed roofs/house roofs or the tips of grass.This is probably the closest we will get instead of a covering here by the coast at best.

The best situation would be if LP stalls over Wales,retogresses northwestwards swings down a N to NW wind well then happy days with no influence of the sea.But how many science laws would this be breaking.
Or else the whole lot could move south and miss us entirely.

Atm i cant take a positive from this for my location

darkman2

Im certainly not talking about 'snowman' weather for the coast. Inland looks a decent bet for it atm though. Its quite asstonishing really the differences just 48hrs out. If you look at the 6z UKMO I posted the depression undercutting is slightly further North again. It could miss us completely of course. The GFS is very poor in comparison and would rule out snow definately for coastal areas. ECM is good with decent snow potential. Still all literally up in the air.

Snowbie

darkman2 wrote:

Im certainly not talking about 'snowman' weather for the coast.

Phew i used coal for the eyes when i was younger,what could we replace it by.:p

Well the GFS has a complex low set up with a lot of disturbances around it according to the 06z.Interesting and complicated,a forecasters nightmare.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=180&mode=0

darkman2

Yeah im just hoping that, that run is not to likely because its at odds with the other 2. Like I said on NW it would be foolish to be 'excited' about such a marginal event atm so im still very open minded as to what may occur. The GFS could well be right but lets hope not!

arctictree

Hmmm - Has the GFS dropped this event altogether for Thurs??

A

darkman2

It has not dropped it completely but it has shortened it to an hour or two of sleet and snow.

BTW an unusual source for good news from Everton Fox even though no mention of us.

By the middle of the week, we'll start to see bands of rain sweeping in from the Atlantic. It will introduce milder conditions but as that rain hits the cold air, it is expected to turn to snow. We could see some significant falls across Wales, the Midlands and much of Southern England. Possibly as much as 2 to 5cm in places.
It may well be the weekend before we see the last of this cold spell with wet, windy and milder weather gradually returning.

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_00_UTC/78_30.gif

ninebeanrows

This event is beyond a forecasters nightmare..

Not to mention whether and the where the snow will be exactly, the forecasters don't even have certainty about macro details.

The good thing this morning is the back up of the 0z UKM by the 6z..

GFS goes just some transitional snow..

At T+48hrs there is vast diagreement that i have never seen.

Would love to be watching the forecaster chat in the Met and Metoffice.

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote:

This event is beyond a forecasters nightmare..

Not to mention whether and the where the snow will be exactly, the forecasters don't even have certainty about macro details.

The good thing this morning is the back up of the 0z UKM by the 6z..

GFS goes just some transitional snow..

At T+48hrs there is vast diagreement that i have never seen.

Would love to be watching the forecaster chat in the Met and Metoffice.

Well met eireann have updated their symbols to sleet or snow on Wednesday. UK met says there is a continuing risk of snowfall on its 3 - 5 day forcast.

lucernarian

It's the first time that I've looked at the charts today and it seems the rollercoaster ride is continuing predictably with ups and downs. But things are going on an even keel and it seems that the worst case scenario that was the 06z GFS would bring shortlived snow. I think that the cold rain with sleet for myself is still on the cards though being a bit over 5 miles from the coast and at nearly 500 feet altitude might count in my favour. Thursday night will be interesting:)

Cavan currently looks like it's straight in the firing line. Knock is at a good altitude and I'd say that it's the station to watch to see if the cold air can reach that far. Clones being automatic will not enlighten us fully.

Isn't it amazing how much difference there is between the models at what I would have called a reliable timeframe? I hope the meteorologists behind the grid models can learn from this week. I doubt that the GFS will take much heed either way:rolleyes:

darkman2

Chart of the winter so far on the UKMO. Far better then the GFS at 60hrs.





http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW72-21.GIF

darkman2

UKMO is a stunner tonight. To good to be true? If that run came off Snowbie would have to find something else to stick in the snowmans eyes. Stunning, absolutely stunning.

Snowbie

lol any suggestions

ninebeanrows

Some of the greatest charts i have ever witnessed were churned out from the UKM a few moments ago..

At T+48 - T+84

Low approaches the southwest approaches, slip north battered back by cold.. high precip rates.. Heavy snow for many areas north of the south coast.. Cold easterly tracking back after snow clears..

Snowfall totals hard to guess at this rate but we aint talking about a few cm's anyway were talking about a whole lot more if this can hold on its path..

Perhaps the best thing is the snow is set to arrive around 5am Thursday morning.. no day heat .. nightime lows..

I can spell it.. But lets not get ahead of ourselves..

But we must now begin warning the public.

I will begin issuing my thoughts on the matter on my site shortly and of course here too..

darkman2

WC I would not get excited yet by any means. Its still 60 hours away. Alot can still change and we eed the GFS on side before we could have any sort of certainty. Best wait for the ECM tbh.

SpitfireIV

Weathercheck wrote:

But we must now begin warning the public.

Begod, now theres a powerful sentence! I just bought myself a grand Regatta jacket today.......hope it'll be of some good use to me by the end of the week.

How does Carlow, particularly Carlow town fit into this scenario?

Snowbie

darkman2 wrote:

Its still 60 hours away

So is his mocks.
Now dont go declaring an apocalypse is nigh tomorrow in school to close it down WC.

More book watchin less model watchin.

Takeshi_Kovacs

CroppyBoy1798 wrote:

Begod, now theres a powerful sentence! I just bought myself a grand Regatta jacket today.......hope it'll be of some good use to me by the end of the week.

How does Carlow, particularly Carlow town fit into this scenario?

Heheh, i just bought an Arc'teryx theta jacket few days ago, an i damn well want to see how it performs in a blizzard:D ..

Although i reckon this potential snow event will pass over North and Sligo areas mostly, and we will only see rain down here in the south..

Supercell

This could truly be an 80's style classic on the way, however huge amounts of uncertainties as to the passage of the low on wed's/thursday. It could end up in cold rain again.

I'm sitting squarely on the fence on this one until Wednesday evening altough probably artictree and myself will at least see some sleet out of it.

Cornilius

I think everyone should relax don't be getting ahead of ourselves and leave the public to deal with their own problems at the moment without getting them all stressed/excited about a maybe event!

Supercell

Snowbie wrote:

So is his mocks.
Now dont go declaring an apocalypse is nigh tomorrow in school to close it down WC.

More book watchin less model watchin.

Lol, agreed , WC get the head down and away from those charts mwahahaah!!.

Oh well at least there's no chance of snow when the real deal comes along this summer.

rc28

LOL, did anyone just hear the radio 1 met forecast from the met just before six? it was an absolute shambles, it was plainly obvious that he didn't have a clue what was happening after tomorrow and so only forecasted only up until tomorrow. Usually at that time they give a 4day f/cast at least! I hope we see some snow in meath, tbh i'd still be happy to just see some flakes falling even if it doesn't stick.

lucernarian

I had a look at the dozen or so forecast charts from the hyped-up cold snap last year and even the most potent charts didn't show such a snowy potential as the 120 UKMO chart that has just been released.

I'm going round with a smile on my face but it can still be easily dashed into rainy oblivion. Those charts are 3 days away but a mere 60 miles in either direction will make a huge difference. And the temperatures are still a concern. I won't ramp this up as it would only be a guess. So I'm going to sit still and wait for the radar and the synoptic station reports come Wednesday.

The models are still fun to watch though:D

darkman2

Faxes updated:)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif

ninebeanrows

Snowbie wrote:

So is his mocks.
Now dont go declaring an apocalypse is nigh tomorrow in school to close it down WC.

More book watchin less model watchin.

Yea i can no longer say "i'll do it tomorrow":o

Im prettay feked for tomorrow! and for the rest of the week for that matter but tis only the mocks!

Back on topic.. the latest Fax chart is very good.

ECM similar to GFS which make things very borderline... but NI and northern areas getting buckets of snow..

UKM sensational though

Longfield

Longfield wrote:

I'm sitting squarely on the fence on this one until Wednesday evening altough probably artictree and myself will at least see some sleet out of it.

LoL You haven't been living on the high ground long have you....

Basically,the low and that occluded front will have to race up over NI for you not to get a serious dumping up in annamoe.
You have some altitude (probably about 600ft? but more than 400 will do there) and you are nestled inland between mountains.
Most of the precip with you if it gets to you will be snow,I have no doubt about that.
The only if is whether it gets there.

Meanwhile,I'm not going to get anything here unfortunately other than rain as I'm beside the sea and on the south side of the wicklow mountains.

Supercell

Tristrame wrote:

LoL You haven't been living on the high ground long have you....

Basically,the low and that occluded front will have to race up over NI for you not to get a serious dumping up in annamoe.
You have some altitude (probably about 600ft? but more than 400 will do there) and you are nestled inland between mountains.
Most of the precip with you if it gets to you will be snow,I have no doubt about that.
The only if is whether it gets there.

Meanwhile,I'm not going to get anything here unfortunately other than rain as I'm beside the sea and on the south side of the wicklow mountains.

I hope you're right Tristrame (at least for me) and wrong for your area.

Tbh I'd still lean in the direction of a 500 meter snow settling event here but haven't been here long enough to make a more confidant forecast.
If it does come during the night hours though I suppose its possible anywhere if the precipitation is heavy enough.