Cold throughout the coming week.Snow for some

Snowbie

I too native of D13 i use to live in Donaghmede,now moved to lesser rough spot in D13:D

Did you ever scutt off the back of the trucks leaving Dunnes stores or H.Williams at the time.

Scubadevils

I was from Ayrfield, we just did the coal trucks H Williams, theres another blast from the past.

Miss that area actually, plan to move back when the funds allow. the ol 27A or 42B into town

Snowbie

or the good ol 29a who constantly kept moving his stops as we would wait for the driver to open the door and then we would unleash our attack,with snowballs some yellow and old trustworthy ice ball,never let you down.

Did you know i have held the record in Donaghmede for the longest flight of a snow ball to date.Its 20 years record not being broken yet.lol no snow to break it with

Scubadevils

Maybe you will get the chance to face some young hopefull to challenge your record in the next couple of weeks

Anyways, off to me leaba...heres to tomorrows upgrades

Villain

Apparently I'm 250ft Above Sea Level!

ninebeanrows

Never in my life did i think i would be so excited on the morning of my mocks.. this mornings UKM is sensational.. it has wholey stuck to its gun and is the only model to watch..

It paints what could turn out to be an event greater than Feb 27th 2001 and all in a winter i had almost given up on.

Gales and heavy driving snow for much of Ireland during early Thursday morning...

Now its seems like it will be down to how heavy the precip is and who gets more!

counties from a line from north Wexford to north Kerry will see snow.. Also gale force winds..

Its dream stuff, dream stuff... how will i concentrate on Thursday morning on PP2 of English if there is a blizzard hammering down!!??? I think id leave as early as possible tbh!!:eek:

G

ch750536

irish1 wrote:

Apparently I'm 250ft Above Sea Level!

Depending on the source im between 1100 and 1300, am sending wife for extra milk today.

rc28

Ok meteireann have upgraded their forecast and now really mentioning snow with no talk of crappy sleet and rain anymore:D i can't wait till thursday, or even tomorrow night cause met.ie says snow moving north overnight. Wc it's times like these i'm glad i did 4th year (im in 5th yr now). It's just the mocks though so write an essay all about snow and you should get through it quikly;)

Trogdor

Any chance of a few showers coming off the sea later. My vp2 is forecasting snow not that that means much:rolleyes:

arctictree

The current UKMO chart looks interesting. I would estimate the ETA of the front hitting the south coast as early as midday tomorrow. By 6pm, Dublin and Wicklow. Then could snow for the whole night!

Currently -3.7 deg here. Think if the front hit under these conditions....

A

lucernarian

Met Eireann might be mentioning "falls of snow" but it's been several years since there has been such a thing in this country. For some people they have to go back to 1996 for that. This is so close to being rain that I wouldn't have any confidence in any predictions. This LP could remain further south still, though we need a very tight pressure gradient to make sure the cold air can get here with little warming.

There could be some very dissapointed people here come Thursday. I'm reminding everyone at how things have gone tits-up before and the window of opportunity is so narrow that it's simply impossible for everyone on this island to get a shovelful of the white stuff.

Hope is a dangerous thing:p For those in Munster, this could be a special event. I'm advising everyone in the relevant region to possibly have a camera handy come Wednesday night.

SpitfireIV

Ok, this is all very exciting stuff, but there are too many conflicting arguments, and its confusing me, I guess thats the thing with weather, you never know what way it'll go.

But could someone give a 'definitive' breakdown of what will happen should the current charts materialise on Thursday morning. ie:

- What we can expect, where we can expect it.

- How long the snow (if any) is likely to stay, how long before it turns back to rain.

- Is it a case of it falling as snow.....turning to sleet......and then to rain without the chance of enjoying it for a few hours?

- Or can we expect a 'snow day' then the oncoming band of rain?

Cheers

Snowbie

Sorry croppy but there is no straight definite answer for you.These things can change at +12 hrs out.You are a favoured location but 100% are the mountains.No met person is clear on it too.What you will hear is southern half or northern half of the country.TBH im one of the lesser likely to get the white stuff but you have a good decent chance.Wedensday evening will paint a clearer pic for you.

SpitfireIV

Thats grand Snowbie, thanks. Interesting times.........damn interesting!

Snowbie,I think you should clarify whether you are allowing a discussion of immediate snow in the snow reports thread.
It's inevitable that it will be used for that and I think it should.


Comments like for instance what I'm about to say.

Theres a small shower train heading south westwards in the Irish sea that seems to be developing.
The fire line for this would appear to be South Dublin down to about Greystones or Wicklow head.

http://212.100.247.145/gfsimages/gfs.20070206/06/54/prectypeuktopo.png

Netweathers thoughts based on the 06z GFS for thursday.

Rain for all in the East including carlow and Dublin but snow for North Leinster,North Connaught and Ulster.

That will change again of course and thats at 12 noon,it could be rain on top of previously lying overnight snow for some (eg Carlow) but it pains a slushy mess.

Ryanoneill2006

Hi Guys,

Hope I'm not going off topic but Feb 6th sticks in my head as a day that produced a lot of snow for us on the East Coast back in 1991. I remember it well as I was in school at the time and we were all sent home! As far as I can remember it lasted for about a week and I remember newspaper headlines at the time talking about a Big Freeze. What I would like to know is.. What in weather terms made conditions so bad in The East back then and how does that situation differ from whats forecasted this week?

It's the last "Real" snow event that I can remember and how I would love to see something similar happen again.

Thanks,

R

High pressure over scandinavia dragging in an East wind tracking all the way back to siberia.
It was much colder than this and lasted at least 10 days.
The snow you got was from showers in the Irish sea that were extensive.
Some of them merged to give an over night and morning period of snow from the Beehive south to about Enniscorthy.
That episode delivered a good 8 inches here which froze over solid on the roads.


This time you have a front from the atlantic driving up against a mainly northerly sourced cold air pool and south of the front there is really mild air.
Where the two masses meet, there will be very heavy precipitation that could deliver several inches of snow.
There is no certainty though as the low pressure thats driving the front could go too far north bringing all the mild air with it and ensuring most of us see just rain.

nacho libre

Weathercheck wrote:

Never in my life did i think i would be so excited on the morning of my mocks.. this mornings UKM is sensational.. it has wholey stuck to its gun and is the only model to watch..

It paints what could turn out to be an event greater than Feb 27th 2001 and all in a winter i had almost given up on.

Gales and heavy driving snow for much of Ireland during early Thursday morning...

Now its seems like it will be down to how heavy the precip is and who gets more!

counties from a line from north Wexford to north Kerry will see snow.. Also gale force winds..

Its dream stuff, dream stuff... how will i concentrate on Thursday morning on PP2 of English if there is a blizzard hammering down!!??? I think id leave as early as possible tbh!!:eek:

G

Strong winds and snow = much fun! You always seem to give good forecasts:D

Fingers crossed it stays fine in Northern Ireland! if not there will only be snow on the mountains for the rest of us.

Snowbie

Tristrame wrote:

Snowbie,I think you should clarify whether you are allowing a discussion of immediate snow in the snow reports thread.
It's inevitable that it will be used for that and I think it should.


Comments like for instance what I'm about to say.

Theres a small shower train heading south westwards in the Irish sea that seems to be developing.
The fire line for this would appear to be South Dublin down to about Greystones or Wicklow head.

We will keep it in the 24hr reliable timeframe.As you know changes might still occur with this and we might never get to see immediate snow.So we will discuss it from a 24hr outlook away from the event.We will also use it for snow if presently falling and if it comes the time to start an additional thread,so be it etc etc.

Thread title bit misleading but i think it has an appropiate title now as this event cannot be explained as 100% as yet.

arctictree

I think we will get a lot of precipitation Wed/Thurs. The million dollar question surrounds temps. If it holds off until nighttime, temps could be just low enough at sea level. 1 degree or so could make all the difference.

Reminds me of an event in March '04 when we got about 6 inches in Roundwood but Greystones/Bray just got 24hrs of damp/cold rain. Does
anyone here remember that event?

Same happened in Feb/Mar '01 but that was a different type of event - LP coming down from the North.

A

nacho libre

Also, the conditions seem perfect for lying snow; several night night of hard frost leading up to it. Heavy snow, if it comes, falling at night should lead to decent accumulation. Ideally, if there was a hard frost, where i am, for a few hours on Wednesday night, before any precipitation...that I think would be even more conducive to accumulations occuring.

Snowbie

Remember we dont want the occlusion front to move up through the country as there is mild air in its wake,we need it to slice through the country leaving any precip as snow again depending on the temp on its northern flank.

Well thats what we wish to happen.

arctictree

arctictree wrote:

Same happened in Feb/Mar '01 but that was a different type of event - LP coming down from the North.
A

oh we got snow from that one.

darkman2

6z UKMO 48hrs - upgrade.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2007020606&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=048hr

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack1a.gif

That puts the low and the fronts down around Rosslare-what do you make of that darkman?

ninebeanrows

Excellant runs this morning.. GFS even moving closer to ECM

Snow moving north during late Wednesday..

Turn heavy in places..

Dublin is in a prime position IMO..

Its going to be close obviously and you can all hype up it being rain if you like..

But that charts have pasting written all over them for anywhere north of Cork

And Earthman you seem to be considering the GFS literally.. they take into cosideration gorund temps which will obviously be higher if your actually in the sea! so thats why the coastal fringe shows rain because thats meant to be in the sea..

Its snow folks..

BTW just finished English paper 1 ... went off on a tagent.. bull****ted my way through it all:D

Next pass Irish:eek: thats gona b funny! Never thought id be contemplating failing PASS irish:(

darkman2

Tristrame wrote:

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack1a.gif

That puts the low and the fronts down around Rosslare-what do you make of that darkman?

Thats from the 00z which has placed the fronts too far south. The precip charts for the UKMO only put precip on the south coast. Thankfully though I was right to raise an eyebrow about this this morning and as you can see from the 6z chart I posted the fronts will be further north probrably straddling south wicklow with bitter east winds ahead of it. Heavy snow chart that is. You also have to remember that the fronts will be coming north at night. This is critical with temps very low indeed. Frost and ice likely ahead of the sleet and snow makes accumlation more likely. Inland - ooooh you could be looking at at least 10cm. Coasts maybe 2 - 5cm. High ground - could be anything really!

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

And Earthman you seem to be considering the GFS literally.. they take into cosideration gorund temps which will obviously be higher if your actually in the sea! so thats why the coastal fringe shows rain because thats meant to be in the sea..

Nah I'm just interpretting it not agreeing with it.
GFS is pants at the moment,all eyes should be on the human input UKMO.

Its snow folks..

Well thats how I'd interpret that fax and the latest UKMO output.

p.s your comment in the old thread "Time to warn the General public" made me laugh out loud

Seriously though there is potential for major disruption here if this pans out like the UKMO suggest.
People aren't expecting a major snow event.
Most people have forgotten what one is and if they get one,there will be mahem.

ninebeanrows

Yes i dont see too much concern about whether it will be snow or not its where the precip will get too.. GFS has it reaching the north coast. UKM probably just to Meath...

So a mudge inbetween would be great for here!;)