Cold throughout the coming week.Snow for some

Scubadevils

Sleety rain moving up over the country tomorrow according to the lunchtime weather on RTE1. I love sleety rain :rolleyes:

darkman2

Thats what happens when you have someone who probrably has an MD in Biscuit studies or something doing the weather.

Anyway, the BBC had the precip too far south but that was from the 00z UKMO. The 6z much better.

Why would they not use the 6z with their 130 forecast?
They had rain over us-but then is Jay wynne a meterologist either?

oh yes he is!

While in Japan he decided to follow his interests and do some postgraduate studies after getting back to the UK and by the summer of 1999 he had graduated from the University of Reading with a Masters degree in Applied Meteorology. In the same week as finishing his studies he joined the Met Office in 1999 as a Trainee Forecaster and began an intensive 14 month programme at the Met Office college which included six months forecasting at RAF Northolt. Having successfully completed the training he joined the BBC Weather Centre team in October 2000 to initially work on BBC World and Radio 4.

Jay lives in London and enjoys skiing,

Tell you one thing,he won't be doing much ski-ing in Ireland with the 130 graphics-unless its on Lug.

Scubadevils

darkman2 wrote:

Thats what happens when you have someone who probrably has an MD in Biscuit studies or something doing the weather.

Anyway, the BBC had the precip too far south but that was from the 00z UKMO. The 6z much better.

true, best wait for the more experienced forecast later. The Eagle seems to like his cold and sneachta, bit of a grin on his face when he mentions snow potential.

Snowbie

Tristrame wrote:

Seriously though there is potential for major disruption here if this pans out like the UKMO suggest.
People aren't expecting a major snow event.
Most people have forgotten what one is and if they get one,there will be mahem.

Do i detect a bit of sway towards an 80s style event from you here.
Hmmm do i.

fatherdougalmag

As at 14:00 on Tuesday 6th, Metcheck (i.e. GFS with a nice user friendly interface) has 10.3cm of precipitation (snow) down for Thursday morning in Dublin!

Felixdhc wrote:

The Eagle seems to like his cold and sneachta, bit of a grin on his face when he mentions snow potential.

Maybe he's a boards lurker

Cornilius

The uk metoffice has its rigional disturbance risk warning out, what do ye tink ireland's is?

SpitfireIV

fatherdougalmag wrote:

As at 14:00 on Tuesday 6th, Metcheck (i.e. GFS with a nice user friendly interface) has 10.3cm of precipitation (snow) down for Thursday morning in Dublin!

Same for Carlow, more or less........but then in there 'snow risk' section they only have snow risk as being 50% , Metcheck have been known to be wrong on occasions, so I wouldnt pay 'that' much attention to it.

UK Met Office wrote:

The Met Office is expecting a period of heavy snow to develop across Southwest England and much of Wales during Wednesday night and this is expected to extend across the Midlands, London, the Southeast of England and East Anglia during Thursday morning. There is also a risk that the snow will extend into parts of northern England for a time before dying away from all areas during Thursday afternoon. Accumulations of 2-5cm are expected quite widely inland, with 10-15cm possible for parts of the Midlands and Wales.

Wow, the lucky buggers, maybe we'll get some of that....we're just across from Wales

darkman2

Tristame that is the 00z used on the BBC forcast. The percipitation charts are identical to what he used. The 6z has it shifted further north. Also take into account the other two models send it much further north.

The weather is on RTE 1 at 2:55.

darkman2

Cornilius wrote:

The uk metoffice has its rigional disturbance risk warning out, what do ye tink ireland's is?

It would be low atm but id expect it to increase later.;)

Scubadevils

Well Evelyn didnt clarify much for tomorrow night...she did say though getting milder over the next couple of days.

Ryanoneill2006

Just caught Evelyn Cusack on RTE 1 and there was no mention of snow over the next few days, She mentioned that it will be getting milder over the next few days. It was rain icons for Thursday and Friday.

darkman2

Also caught the weather forcast. In fairness to them it is still uncertain however looking at the charts atm I think they should really start mentioning the possiblity of snow at this stage whether its only transistional snow or not. The UKMO continues have a mind of its own and looks very promising.

If they are caught out it would not be the first time.......

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/48_30.gif

Villain

Umm RTE were last night talking about a chance of snow on Thursday they now seem to be saying milder with rain and the charts have appear to have upgraded if anything???

Scubadevils

I feel this will end in tears come Wednesday night/Thurs morning, I shouldnt have got too excited in the first place but hard not too when it built up so much the last week or so with talk of 82 :eek: etc.

Scubadevils

I suppose in fairness to the met, with current uncertainty, they probably will hold off till tomorrow before using the "s" word and potential accumulations. The models change every time they come out it seems so would it not be safer for the met to hold off till tomorrow with any warnings?

darkman2

darkman2 wrote:

Tristame that is the 00z used on the BBC forcast. The percipitation charts are identical to what he used. The 6z has it shifted further north. Also take into account the other two models send it much further north.

The weather is on RTE 1 at 2:55.

Didn't see the RTE thing but I did see the news 24 one at 5 to 3 and the graphics were different to the 130 alright...

Guess where they had transitional snow this time?

Yes wexford,Wicklow and Dublin overnight wenesday into thursday morning extending west into the midlands and northwards.

They should be getting a handle on it by now.It's transitional folks so if you get the snow,it will be flushed away by the rain by at the latest afternoon/evening on thursday.

SpitfireIV

Felixdhc wrote:

I feel this will end in tears come Wednesday night/Thurs morning, I shouldnt have got too excited in the first place but hard not too when it built up so much the last week or so with talk of 82 :eek: etc.

What has changed Felixdhc? Has RTE's recent forecast put you off, as irish1 said the charts seemed to be upgradred if anything.

I'm not getting too excited about this one either (:D ) I'll believe it when I see it.

Darwin

UK Met Office have weather warnings about heavy snow for Wales and most of England early Thursday. Met Eireann still mention snow on the current forecast on their home page.

Scubadevils

CroppyBoy1798 wrote:

What has changed Felixdhc? Has RTE's recent forecast put you off, as irish1 said the charts seemed to be upgradred if anything.

I'm not getting too excited about this one either (:D ) I'll believe it when I see it.

Yeah, suppose the RTE forecast has put me off. I would have thought by now there would be more mention, if anything they have backed off from yesterday. It would appear to be more a UK event (for a change). The UK met have warnings out and the Irish met are talking about sleety rain :rolleyes:

Yep, I'm the same...if I actually see the snow falling tomorrow night I'll then accept its snowing

Snowbie

If Met Eireann have not called for snow yet its because theres no need for it,its only there profession.

Still think there be no snow on east facing coasts.
Now my reason for saying this is because of the last hour i have been watching my thermometer drop from 6.1 to 4.7c with a gentle North wind blowing and in the last 15mins it has swung into an NNE to East direction and is stuck at 4.6c. and rising to 4.7 again.
My old foe the Irish sea keeping us nice and warm.

I seriously cant see any snow falling here or on the coasts.

SpitfireIV

Snowbie wrote:

I seriously cant see any snow falling here or on the coasts.

Dont worry Snowbie, us 'inlanders' will keep you well provided with pictures, videos and accounts of the snow accumilations, blizzards and general mad winter weather (:p ...I jest)

Snowbie

Use inlanders and the two highlanders better provide some decent snaps.

darkman2

12hrs GFS pretty much the same.

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/42_30.gif

ninebeanrows

It is almost like a few of ya's don't want it to snow!

12z GFS is better, keeps the band slightly further south and is basically inline with the UKM now.

Heavy snow will arrive in Dublin early Thursday morning circa 4am temperatures will be at 1c with dewpoints around -2/-3c ... by midday Thursday maxima of 1c dewpoints of 0c. snow clearing north..

You guys are awful pessimistic.. i don't know what waffle the Met fed you at 255 but it was all wrong!

And i realise we have all been left disappointed before but its looking good folks

darkman2

The effect of the Irish sea is minimal on this run. Temps midday Thursday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn4817.png

Precip midday Thursday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn484.png

ninebeanrows

And im increasingly confident the band will not turn back to rain, just fizzle out into really light snow.. some times it does that..

12z shows a harsh frost setting in Thursday night on the snowfields;)

Scubadevils

Excuse my limited model output knowledge, but from what I can see on the current 12z, at 3am Thurs morning, areas over 200m have about a 50% chance of snow.

SpitfireIV

Weathercheck, I'll go with you on this one, the last bit of snow we had I think it was only you that kept confidence in it and gave a fairly accurate forecast........dont dissapoint me now!

I think you just want to the snow to avoid your mocks though , but no harm, maybe you will get the day off.........you can use it to study, no snowmen for you!

Scubadevils

Weathercheck wrote:

It is almost like a few of ya's don't want it to snow!

12z GFS is better, keeps the band slightly further south and is basically inline with the UKM now.

Heavy snow will arrive in Dublin early Thursday morning circa 4am temperatures will be at 1c with dewpoints around -2/-3c ... by midday Thursday maxima of 1c dewpoints of 0c. snow clearing north..

You guys are awful pessimistic.. i don't know what waffle the Met fed you at 255 but it was all wrong!

And i realise we have all been left disappointed before but its looking good folks

I'm only waiting a good 20 years now to see some decent snow My last 3 years of model lurking every winter have ended in disappointment each time and almost left me divorced